Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Trading Discussion (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=11)
-   -   How do you learn to trust yourself in trading? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=929258)

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 6:15pm | Post# 41

btw I know my advice is useless..

Piquant Jul 10, 2019 7:08pm | Post# 42

{quote} But should one be able to give the probability for certain trades.. in advance... then he should just code it in the TE and wait for a billion, trading till it matches the edge (level
I'm assuming you'd need a deep pocket for the probability to work out in the long run but that'd be gambling of course if you had solid data to back it up you'd be able to go to sleep at night but the uncertainty of the future will be there to stay! and nothing beats some proper knowledge of the market as in your words "proper initial conditions and assumptions" !! especially for retailers individual traders.

hellsbells Jul 10, 2019 7:36pm | Post# 43

Have randomly found this thread after Piquant subscribed. What a glorious piece of humanity . Traders suffer and success is elusive. We think the battle is with the market but after a few rounds we discover the battle is with ourselves and what a devastating realisation that is! I have to say a great personal emotional awareness, empathy, understanding and desire to self develop has come from my trading experiences. To non traders that might sound trite, but trading psychology is like a coward punch that annhilates the unprepared ego, when I thought I was just going to get rich quick. Ha!!! Good luck to everyone crawling along the path of self awareness! Be kind to yourselves, we are all human and fallible!!!
Cheers h

skyway Jul 10, 2019 8:32pm | Post# 44

We know 1+1=2, we easily and naturally trust this math.

Statistical math says 60% winrate, we know what the probability says but we somehow don't trust it. Deep inside we are not satisfied with 60% that makes worse our trust. Without trust psychological issues manifest, they become relevant.

Aside from math, what else can you trust ?

Some say I trust my non-math method, I have been doing it for umpteen years.

Look deeper at your trust, again. Not your method. Your trust. Your action for umpteen years reflect your trust.

What does your action speak about your trust ?

For comparison, casinos trust their statistical math that gives them their house edge. The owners and banks risk billions of dollars investing upfront their gambling business. That's trust in action.

Mundo Jul 10, 2019 9:16pm | Post# 45

1 Attachment(s)
The moment I opened my current trading account I had a working method, had good MM, and psychologically is when I began to trust myself in this business. Had I not been prepared I would have not opened the account. No one should open an account unprepared (although it does happen more often than not). When I don't trust myself is when I forget I already put my trust in myself and in this business. (Those who forget are doomed to repeat is so accurate yet...easily forgotten). Easier said than done, but all great things comes with a hefty price.

In all things one must have balance. Too much and over-reaction (addiction) comes in, too little and indifference happens. This image shows the 3 elements necessary to a successful career in trading. Forex is a balance of all three, 100% of each of its components.

See the balance?
Name:  Profitabletradinginfographic-300x274-190x122.jpg
Views: 852
Size:  5 KB

bapakjason Jul 10, 2019 9:28pm | Post# 46

Good idea for a thread

Lunartrader9 Jul 11, 2019 12:34am | Post# 47

When you really understand how to trade...when to enter..when you will exit...and you have been successful. Then....and only then.....will you trust yourself. This won't happen overnight or without pain. It takes time.

Harry6 Jul 11, 2019 10:02am | Post# 48

When you really understand how to trade...when to enter..when you will exit...and you have been successful. Then....and only then.....will you trust yourself. This won't happen overnight or without pain. It takes time.
Curiously, after more than 12 years the balance between leverage/pp value/price acceleration is still not mastered

Inserted Video


Takes years to become the master of your own destiny and soar the unlimited skies

TradeMinim Jul 11, 2019 2:07pm | Post# 49

It's normal when you lose trust sometimes, especially during draw down periods, it's not something easy like "think positively" or "grind hard", the internal struggle is real. Try to make peace with yourself, in times of uncertainly, do back tests of your system to give yourself a confidence boost, learn to meditate more and be aware of your emotions.

Make peace with your emotions, and learn to face it.

auricforecas Jul 11, 2019 3:09pm | Post# 50

Also, what we should define here is the RELATIVE trust to trades not the overall confidence (in life).
So what are you (OP) have real issue with... Overall trust/confidence in life? Because trading certainly challenge whatever trust/confidence you might have elsewhere... it can still crush you, that is a normal process, where the confidence/trust would really come into play is how/if (soon) do you recover from it.

In trading, most of the time if not always.. we have MIRROR confidence/emotion chart, meaning that be afraid of VERY HAPPY winners, very ecstatic ones that jump all over the places, screaming.... ONCE/WHEN they do WIN.... be afraid of them ONCE they do lose... They will be desperate, completely down, angry... or even... sui....
The best traders, I (among many) FEEL NOTHING... They do not have emotions at all, just TRADE... when they trade are in the zone... Even this confidence or whatever.. is useless... they just TRADE.... but they might involve themselves, emotions and all... AT THE ANALYSIS...

Traders should be ROBOTs in my book Emotions are devastating... If you are exposed emotionaly/personaly... and put confidence/trust in the market... you might get crushed...

And as I love relevant clips...

Here is the universal confidence in life that MIGHT help even in trading (should you be exposed - no pun See here co**fidence
Very good speech, can be applied here also...
Inserted Video

EF5 Jul 12, 2019 2:01pm | Post# 51

Excellent thread! I think this really gets into the realm of epistemology. Most people accept empiricism so if you have a winning demo track record or your system is backtesting well you could probably trust yourself on that basis. However, individuals such as Karl Popper wouldn't accept evidence as truth alone and logically wouldn't be susceptible to certain pitfalls (ie black swans) where you're assuming a future outcome will take place based on past outcomes. The end result with Popper is you can never really be sure of anything. George Soros, who in my opinion is the greatest trader of all time, has been an outspoken proponent of Popper so I take him pretty seriously...

I think the best approach is somewhere between the two. You need empirical evidence that shows your system has an edge and its rational to trade based upon it, but you need the humility to accept that you may not really have an edge and one day it will quit working. Martingale, for example, works great until it fails spectacularly. Same story with options selling.

HeyYou Jul 13, 2019 12:04am | Post# 52

Excellent thread! I think this really gets into the realm of epistemology. Most people accept empiricism so if you have a winning demo track record or your system is backtesting well you could probably trust yourself on that basis. However, individuals such as Karl Popper wouldn't accept evidence as truth alone and logically wouldn't be susceptible to certain pitfalls (ie black swans) where you're assuming a future outcome will take place based on past outcomes. The end result with Popper is you can never really be sure of anything. George Soros,...

I kinda agree.. for instance if I'm a trend follower it's because I assume, yes ASSUME that the market will be trending in the future, because it was trending in the past. it's just assumptions, but as human beings we can only assume.. in reality everything is possible.

HeyYou Jul 13, 2019 12:35am | Post# 53

Now the difference between "bad" assumptions and "good" assumptions is that good assumptions are based on statistics.. I mean actual statistics, which tells you what's most likely to happen (aka prediction). cheers

auricforecas Jul 14, 2019 9:32am | Post# 54

{quote} I kinda agree.. for instance if I'm a trend follower it's because I assume, yes ASSUME that the market will be trending in the future, because it was trending in the past. it's just assumptions, but as human beings we can only assume.. in reality everything is possible.
Well yeah, but sometimes assumptions can last (longer) than a lifetime, so from one's life perspective "he/she was right"... The biggest problem that I observed (and am observing again) was in the real estate market... because the market went UP for one lifetime... and if anyone said that there will be downtrend, even temporary, people laughed their asses off. But when the decline (bubble/debt burst) did happen, it was THE BANKS, the conspiracy etc... Then government intervened with massive stimuluses, bailouts, burning billions like they were 100EUR... to somewhat correct/stabilise the market... and now we are back... pumping balloon again, like nothing happened, until the next p(o)op

But yeah, "Assumptions are the root of all evil".. as they say...

Many formulas, derivations, trading patterns or even business plan(s) are PERFECt... if derived from one simple/basic assumption. Should you remove it... it all go into the toilet

HeyYou Jul 15, 2019 2:53am | Post# 55

Back on topic..... you lost trust in yourself after being wrong so many times.... don't worry, it's not that you are a failure... it's that trading amplifies our weaknesses therefore it's much easier to make mistakes. the only thing to do again is to pay attention to our thoughts / emotions / feelings - constantly.. this way we get rid of the weak tendencies and gain wisdom. I cannot say that I'm wise as I still have some bad habits ... but certainly I'm making wiser decisions than 5 years ago. I also feel always happy no matter what.

charlieb410 Jul 15, 2019 7:40am | Post# 56

{quote} Hey mate, first things first please understand in a long run view seldom few make money here... all this shit you have happening EVERYONE can relate. The market is a vindictive bitch.. but that said there is a way around your problem. This is a business... you cant really judge a business day to day trade to trade. Every business is different but broadly speaking your goal is to end up with a profit... monthly, quarterly, yearly ... expand your view first and foremost.. so second to that a business has running costs, in trading terms these...
Awesome post! This is a very important lesson to learn. There's no way around not having losing trades. The focus should be on having more winners than losers over time. A strong strategy, ALWAYS sticking to your trading rules, and a good money management system for account growth over time can achieve this imo. Again, thx for the post , we all need to hear this at times.

auricforecas Jul 15, 2019 4:41pm | Post# 57

{quote} Awesome post! This is a very important lesson to learn. There's no way around not having losing trades. The focus should be on having more winners than losers over time. A strong strategy, ALWAYS sticking to your trading rules, and a good money management system for account growth over time can achieve this imo. Again, thx for the post , we all need to hear this at times.
I would expand this a little futher... In the endgame only ABSOLUTE return counts... There are certain strategies that have relatively LOW win-rate.. but the overall outcome/picture is MONEY (profit) at the bank This win-rate is very poorly understood... Also there are BURNERS.... where you have to FORGET previous attempts...
Just SET and FORGET... otherwise it might kill you (if you lose So it means that if you "burn" 9x100USD... and the 10th burner gives you awesome profits... outweigting all the previous loses, attempts... it is worth it... This is basicaly universal rule... "life is a numbers game" as they call it... You have people... afraid of doing something, talking to a girl/guy... opening a company... but reality is that many people FAILED miserably before they won... Something like this..
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/m..._jordan_127660 and Arnold gives this FAILURE is PART of the success speech over and over again... Prepare to be a complete failure... than you might start winning I can give you examples in any area... Venture capitalist or business angels or whatever... are one of the smartest people for business there is... but they know absolutely that they will BURN the capital in like 80% or more no matter what they do... but the rest 10-20%... makes it worthwhile.. Same as women... you might get rejected 99times... the 100th worth it... And yes, trading... so what how many times you fail... if you HIT the WINNING WAVE once! and it rides you right to the OCEANFRONT Of course, the second component would be knowing when to STOP.. if you made it there with luck.... very hard to extract the juice from luck.. but that is the topic from another thread

Harry6 Jul 15, 2019 5:13pm | Post# 58

{quote} I would expand this a little futher... In the endgame only ABSOLUTE return counts... There are certain strategies that have relatively LOW win-rate.. but the overall outcome/picture is MONEY (profit) at the bank This win-rate is very poorly understood... Also there are BURNERS.... where you have to FORGET previous attempts... Just SET and FORGET... otherwise it might kill you (if you lose So it means that if you "burn" 9x100USD... and the 10th burner gives you awesome profits... outweigting all the previous loses,...
I like that line: you can lose 8/9 trades in 10 and still end up winning, in the eventuality of course that the 8/9 trades are micro losses and the one winning makes it all worthwhile....

Rennaissance Jul 15, 2019 7:04pm | Post# 59

The key to success is not risk and reward but investing when the probability of the market going your way is the higher than against you. Risk management without the probability in your favour is useless.

Marcieny Jul 16, 2019 9:35pm | Post# 60

A head full of fears has no room for dreams.
Eliminate fear is necessary

swagtrading Jul 17, 2019 12:49am | Post# 61

Trust in thy self comes from knowing what you are doing and one is prepared for all eventualities, like:
- Stop loss in place
- Target in place
- Risk management in knowing how much you're gonna lose if it hits SL
- Knowing how you will enter next trade

All these comes with experiencing different market conditions.

Mrcl Jul 17, 2019 1:13am | Post# 62

How do you learn to trust yourself in trading ?

Simply put,
KEEP FAILING, BUT DON'T GIVE UP !

Its like trading,
Price won't permanently goes up or down... But it will permanently move forward !

So,
Keep trading, failure and success comes and goes... But you must hold on tight to dedication, professionalism, and FOCUS !

... and also, don't be a donkey (repeating mistakes)

Best of luck ~

Harry6 Jul 17, 2019 4:37am | Post# 63

How do you learn to trust yourself in trading ? Simply put, KEEP FAILING, BUT DON'T GIVE UP ! Its like trading, Price won't permanently goes up or down... But it will permanently move forward ! So, Keep trading, failure and success comes and goes... But you must hold on tight to dedication, professionalism, and FOCUS ! ... and also, don't be a donkey (repeating mistakes) Best of luck ~

I love this Mrcl

Success is a series of mistakes, errors for so far you keep going, stumbling.....

The only thing, the donkey never stumbles upon the same stone ever. HE said that more than 2000 years ago.

https://www.moralstories.org/never-to-give-up/

Human beings stumble since more than 2000 years on the same stone of pure ignorance, pride to acknowledge this very ignorance, as blind man looking for an elephant in the dark

charlieb410 Jul 17, 2019 2:38pm | Post# 64

A head full of fears has no room for dreams. Eliminate fear is necessary

Marcieny Jul 17, 2019 2:49pm | Post# 65

{quote} I love this Mrcl Success is a series of mistakes, errors for so far you keep going, stumbling..... The only thing, the donkey never stumbles upon the same stone ever. HE said that more than 2000 years ago. https://www.moralstories.org/never-to-give-up/ Human beings stumble since more than 2000 years on the same stone of pure ignorance, pride to acknowledge this very ignorance, as blind man looking for an elephant in the dark
the market is not for those who have ego.

swagtrading Jul 17, 2019 9:25pm | Post# 66

{quote} the market is not for those who have ego.
Exactly. If one has ego, he loses objectivity and the ego is sure to be crushed by the god of the markets.

Harry6 Jul 17, 2019 10:52pm | Post# 67

{quote} the market is not for those who have ego.
We humans ALL have ego. In that we are all equal . I use trading to transform my consciousness. See also my private profile?

The opportunity is to use our ego intelligently, and with compassionate understanding use the suffering parts as a door/gate way to our immense unlimited and eternal beauty.

See also

Inserted Video


You like it?

Marcieny Jul 18, 2019 11:20pm | Post# 68

{quote} We humans ALL have ego. In that we are all equal . I use trading to transform my consciousness. See also my private profile? The opportunity is to use our ego intelligently, and with compassionate understanding use the suffering parts as a door/gate way to our immense unlimited and eternal beauty. See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a10...&index=2&t=24s You like it?
I am not fluent in English ... But it seems to be a great video.

Harry6 Jul 19, 2019 12:43pm | Post# 69

{quote} I am not fluent in English ... But it seems to be a great video.

I am struggling on this path of inner freedom with Faisal, since more than 15 years. And on the road back home since more than 40 years now

If you like to explore more of this, what about this video


Inserted Video


Enjoy

PS And Marciency, feel free to send me a private shout. Look up my profile and google a translation in Spanish. OK?

Marcieny Jul 19, 2019 12:48pm | Post# 70

{quote} I am struggling on this path of inner freedom with Faisal, since more than 15 years. And on the road back home since more than 40 years now If you like to explore more of this, what about this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eU4uVTkBQI&t=27s Enjoy PS And Marciency, feel free to send me a private shout. Look up my profile and google a translation in Spanish. OK?
OK..Many Thanks harry.

Harry6 Jul 19, 2019 4:07pm | Post# 71

{quote} OK..Many Thanks harry.


Muy buen


MikeDNC Aug 25, 2019 3:44pm | Post# 72

- I take a screenshot of every trade, including "close maybes" and some setups that should not be taken. I review these before each week begins. While I'm reviewing, I'm automatically becoming familiar with what a good trade looks like and what a trade doesn't look like. Then, while I'm trading, I evaluate potential setups and feel like I am still backtesting with my screenshots.
The screenshots show how the trade turned out, plus a few more candles in case I notice new patterns in the future.(*) On most trades, I record my reasoning at the time using the "Text" tool.

- I say and do only appropriate things to myself. All trades that have a good setup are good trades, whether they win, lose, or win/lose a little. So if I say something out loud to myself, such as "Yay!" or "Crap!", it is accurate according to that. If it was a bad trade that won, I don't give myself positive feedback. If it was a good trade that was managed perfectly but lost, I feel free to give myself positive feedback -- and never negative feedback.
When I do say something incorrect: I stop everything I'm doing and say out loud, "I take that back." Then I pause for a bit and if needed say it again, until I feel like it did not happen.

- The broker should be ECN or at least STP. Doing business with, and trusting money with, someone who has a vital business interest to take one's money (e.g., Market Makers), is suicidal for one's account.

- All of my system's rules are written down, as accurately yet succinctly as possible. Sometimes after long holiday breaks (and esp. after summer break), I actually do forget a rule or the overall feel of the system. But these rules represent optimal trading performance for this system, so I want to be always trading according to these.



____________________________________________
Footnotes:
(*) For screenshot filenames, I personally use the following quick format: "eu5 1.png" for the first EURUSD M5, "eu5 2.png" for the second, etc. The ".png" does not need to be typed.

HairyHarley Aug 25, 2019 4:00pm | Post# 73

Something that has really helped me is to use a mantra before trading. Here's an example.

It helps get me in the right frame of mind to trust myself and know that I am able to trade according to my plan.

It took a while for it to become a habit but I do it pretty much every morning now.

adam- Aug 25, 2019 8:35pm | Post# 74

backtest your strategy manually at least 500 times (2000 times is better) in one pair (or 20 years of chart history), write down every trade, and if the result is good you can trade and relax and if the result is not good find out why and solve it until the result is positive

but that doesnt mean that fear will go away completely, we're human are emotional being we will always be tested but now i have reliable and logical reason why i should put my trust on numbers because numbers dont lie

tiborf71 Aug 26, 2019 1:19pm | Post# 75

as you progress in the learning process. you realize more and more that there are very few profitable strategies.
thus, self-education is vital.

Italman Aug 26, 2019 5:35pm | Post# 76

I had been trading 3 years. I was ready to give up & almost quit several times. Then I had my incredible moment where i realized my mistakes. I am now profitable & very positive of my abilities. The main things that helped: A Squawk, a Journal, a trading plan, better risk management, more studying & dissecting my winning & losing trades. Also, I highly recommend a psychology book: Mark Douglas-Trading in the Zone. I hope this helps. Wish everyone much success in their trading.

Innovator757 Aug 26, 2019 6:06pm | Post# 77

hi, I've had my fair share of getting my a** whooped around over the years. The emotional pain attached to trading is incredibly real to me. Depressive phases, feeling inferior and not worthy, apparently being the only trader in the world that was not making money, you name it. Aside from having a, excuse the arrogance, good understanding of how particular markets move/operate at particular times of the day, i have found that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for me was is trusting myself. I do not mean that from a technical perspective, or...

I naturally don't trust myself and have studied the simplest to the most complex systems. Yet I see the Richard Dennis and Paul TUdor Jones and just dive in right now even those its the practice system. Its simply a matter of being prepared and using your luck to your advatntag.

martin15 Aug 27, 2019 3:27am | Post# 78

hi, I've had my fair share of getting my a** whooped around over the years. The emotional pain attached to trading is incredibly real to me. Depressive phases, feeling inferior and not worthy, apparently being the only trader in the world that was not making money, you name it. Aside from having a, excuse the arrogance, good understanding of how particular markets move/operate at particular times of the day, i have found that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for me was is trusting myself. I do not mean that from a technical perspective, or...
Hey thatís okay. I think it happens with almost every trade .One thing i could suggest you is to avoid emotionless trading at all costs .Because it does not let you think logically and you are sure to lose out some good trades .Feelings like low self confidence, trust and fear will never let you do good in trading. Also, working out a trading plan can help a lot. At least it has worked for me always .It tells me when to enter a trade and when to exit it and helps avoid emotion.

Andrewbrown Sep 4, 2019 4:02am | Post# 79

Trust in thy self comes from knowing what you are doing and one is prepared for all eventualities, like: - Stop loss in place - Target in place - Risk management in knowing how much you're gonna lose if it hits SL - Knowing how you will enter next trade All these comes with experiencing different market conditions.
Every point that you focused on is right. Just to add, to handle all this, emotional balance is must. Keeping yourself emotionally strong and confident will build that self trust.

Harry6 Sep 7, 2019 10:57am | Post# 80

Well the eternal question of trust:

Do you trust yourself in life?

Euh....do you TRUST life? The unfolding basic goodness in existence?????

If in doubt or simply NOT, then try to build durable ego trust.... I NEVER succeeded in more than 40 years efforting. I only had illlusionary, false trust.

And when that false trust collapsed, within myself a made a free fall through a gaping bottomless hole, crashing in an infinite ocean of never ending inconsolable, unbearable sadness, despair, rage, hopelessness and terror.

And that very space opens to eternal, living, Basic Trust: See also this youtube link:
Inserted Video


© Forex Factory