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-   -   How do you learn to trust yourself in trading? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=929258)

steep89 Jul 2, 2019 8:01am | Post# 1

How do you learn to trust yourself in trading?
 
hi,

I've had my fair share of getting my a** whooped around over the years. The emotional pain attached to trading is incredibly real to me.
Depressive phases, feeling inferior and not worthy, apparently being the only trader in the world that was not making money, you name it.

Aside from having a, excuse the arrogance, good understanding of how particular markets move/operate at particular times of the day, i have found that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for me was is trusting myself.

I do not mean that from a technical perspective, or having the "right" system. With any system, there is a margin for discretion/error, and simply circumstances where you skip the setup. That's where this motion of not trusting myself kicks in still.

I realize that FOMO is a thing, and statistical evidence of your trading history should alleviate the FOMO feeling.
Personally speaking, FOMO is only one of my symptoms that tell me I don't trust myself all the time (although it has gotten a lot better over the years).

It's this constant fear that trading will fail, although I have taken many precautions, such as rigid risk management, and generally speaking I have a lot of patience to wait for the "best" setups.

Despite having improved my results over the years, I can't seem to shake this existential fear, and properly trust myself.

I wondered if any of you have had similar experiences, and

1) would you mind sharing your experience?
2) what did you do to overcome/manage this better?

If you're reading this, and feel like it's something you've been experiencing, but struggling to articulate (I know a bunch of people who were in this very boat without being able to spell it out lol), just join the discussion and share your struggle.

Thanks
s

HeyYou Jul 2, 2019 3:46pm | Post# 2

1) would you mind sharing your experience? 2) what did you do to overcome/manage this better? If you're reading this, and feel like it's something you've been experiencing, but struggling to articulate (I know a bunch of people who were in this very boat without being able to spell it out lol), just join the discussion and share your struggle. Thanks s
So much struggle..... my advice is to practice meditation and use a broker with 1:20 leverage at least it worked for me.

Liarg Jul 2, 2019 4:46pm | Post# 3

Hallo steep89

Nice honest thread. I been stuggeling with the mental sides of trading as well I think all traders got difficulties because we all human not robots

Harry6 Jul 2, 2019 5:10pm | Post# 4

Thanks for what you share here, Steep 89.

You may look at my profile info and this thread: https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=921441

If there is anything in it for you, feel free to contact me anytime.

In the meantime, feel your body, trust your body and belly.

And much more.................

PS: Decennia of hard daily work, to calm down our psychotic /psychopath mind, in which we are all imprisoned to various degrees

Rose_5-HT Jul 2, 2019 5:15pm | Post# 5

Depression makes trading an incredibly difficult task at least in the learning phase. I'm speaking from experience. Avoiding conventionally-grown fruits and vegetables has helped me considerably. Organophosphate insecticides have been shown to lower the production of brain serotonin. Fungicides are even worse. You will need 10-15 days off of pesticides to feel better.
Reading your post I feel trading is still an intellectual endeavour for you, it must become an automatism like driving a car.
I suggest you go back to a Demo account with $1,000 at the beginning of everyday and don't go back to real money until you're able to consistently show a profit at the end of every week.

mikeeating Jul 2, 2019 5:35pm | Post# 6

the chimp paradox is a good book to read, you will gain some understanding into your impulsiveness and learn to manage it, also the inner game of tennis will help with the learning process, lastly, I agree with the meditation, this is imperative

steep89 Jul 3, 2019 4:46am | Post# 7

Wow, I wasn't sure if people were actually going to reply to this thread.
Thank you.

You guys posted some good advice, and tips outside the "technical" trading realm, which is what I was hoping for. It's interesting to me, because looking at the replies, you seem to have experienced/are experiencing similar difficulties, and found different solutions.

I have indeed tried meditation over a longer period of time, and this has definitely helped me with "patience management". By that I mean that when it's crunch time, I can withstand entering a trade just for the sake of getting a trade a lot longer/better than I used to some years ago.

I want to apologize if I made it sound like I have a depression, that's not what I meant to say. I know a few people who do, and they'd happily cut off their right hand to get rid of the depression. What I meant to say was that trading used to put me in a state of depressive phases, where I wouldn't want to get out of bed, thinking I'll never be able to amount to anything etc. The usual, after you realize this is all way harder than you thought at the beginning lol.
That's the past though, I'm doing better trading wise, but I'm also not too attached to it mentally anymore - I don't know how I did it, but I think if you've been long enough at it, you will have experienced this too?

For myself, what helped me psychologically - and also on the bottomline - was developing frameworks for, imo, neglected areas of "technical" analysis (be it actual technical chart analysis, volume analysis, volatility hedging etc).
My frameworks mostly describe scenarios for :
1) timing
2) momentum
3) their interaction with each other

I'll probably drift off from the thread's topic if I went into this in detail now, but this alleviated the psychological pressure of daytrading by a ton for me. If anyone is interested in this, I'll be happy to start a separate discussion about it.

That doesn't mean I'm a complete trader, nor that I mastered trusting myself btw.

I'm excited to hear more thoughts on this topic, as it's probably the aspect that I still need to work on the most (in order to size up, be more relaxed etc)

Thanks
s

Rmg Jul 3, 2019 4:53am | Post# 8

Not having an edge is the root cause of these problems.
Statistically proven edge to yourself is the way to go.
Once you have proven edge, most of this discipline issues will disappear and still unable to execute systematically that's when seriously think about our abilities.
Not to beat ourselves before then.

CindyXXXX Jul 3, 2019 6:00am | Post# 9

hi, I've had my fair share of getting my a** whooped around over the years. The emotional pain attached to trading is incredibly real to me. Depressive phases, feeling inferior and not worthy, apparently being the only trader in the world that was not making money, you name it. Aside from having a, excuse the arrogance, good understanding of how particular markets move/operate at particular times of the day, i have found that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for me was is trusting myself. I do not mean that from a technical perspective, or...
Hey mate, first things first please understand in a long run view seldom few make money here... all this shit you have happening EVERYONE can relate. The market is a vindictive bitch..

but that said there is a way around your problem. This is a business... you cant really judge a business day to day trade to trade. Every business is different but broadly speaking your goal is to end up with a profit... monthly, quarterly, yearly ... expand your view first and foremost..

so second to that a business has running costs, in trading terms these are lost trades. Yes they will happen of course they will happen, for us this is our cost of business... our expenses

broaden your view sir... the good trades you’ve seen yourself they come. Broadly speaking again because i do not know your strategy but the main goal is to simply survive the inevitable downs so you are alive to take advantage of the inevitable ups.


tailor your trades to a 20 trade outlook... account for your expenses.. a single loss should NEVER cause emotional pain. You will never ever succeed in this if you cant take 5 losses in a row without becoming even the slightest bit emotional.

its your mindset... and you are no different to the rest of us. when it rains it pours. Rain is. Inevitable bit likewise so is the sun... and this is yours and all our puzzle

you just need to be able to weather the storm and understand that often you won’t understand. Of you cant weather the storm then you need a better strategy. But none of us can avoid the rain.

Forget you today... you need to look after you a month from now.. hope i helped in some way

Inserted Video

HeyYou Jul 3, 2019 11:42am | Post# 10

Wow, I wasn't sure if people were actually going to reply to this thread. Thank you. You guys posted some good advice, and tips outside the "technical" trading realm, which is what I was hoping for. It's interesting to me, because looking at the replies, you seem to have experienced/are experiencing similar difficulties, and found different solutions. I have indeed tried meditation over a longer period of time, and this has definitely helped me with "patience management". By that I mean that when it's crunch time, I can withstand entering a trade...
I believe everything is for our good...

we survive and learn

DonPato Jul 3, 2019 12:31pm | Post# 11

Thank you for starting this thread it is one that is really needed for all of us no matter your level of expertise. (or perceived lack there of)
... It's this constant fear that trading will fail, although I have taken many precautions, such as rigid risk management, and generally speaking I have a lot of patience to wait for the "best" setups. Despite having improved my results over the years, I can't seem to shake this existential fear, and properly trust myself....
On some level (at least in my experience after more than 15 years) this fear never goes away. Especially if you take what you're doing seriously. I liken it to motorcycle riding or sailing. Each of these endeavors (trading included) has an inherent risk of total failure. If you're going to engage in this you MUST accept that sooner or later this risk will become a reality. This is why you buy safety equipment. Helmets and body armor for riding, harnesses and life suits for sailing, stop losses in trading. Just because you have these things and have minimized the risk as much as possible, doesn't mean your fear of crashing, sinking, or losing money goes away. You will still drive prudently, sail prudently, trade prudently. As much as this sound really stupid it is true...FEAR is your friend, IF you harness it productively.

How do you do this? You mentioned record keeping...have you tried articulating in a log what exactly causes your fear...and how you react to it? Then did you observe if your fear was in fact correct? By writing these in a log and then observing if your fears proved correct, you will do one of two things...you will either have proved your fear is really a premonition that proves correct...and you should listen to it...OR you have proved it really is just your mind playing tricks on you and you can develop techniques to calm this effect.

In fact that act of even attempting to articulate your fears in a rational manner ON PAPER and then switching to observation mode to see if this is really true, moves you out of an emotion into an observational mind set...and thus your "fear" disappears.

Bottom line on fear: Use it to your advantage especially if its accurate!!

...I wondered if any of you have had similar experiences, and 1) would you mind sharing your experience? 2) what did you do to overcome/manage this better? If you're reading this, and feel like it's something you've been experiencing, but struggling to articulate (I know a bunch of people who were in this very boat without being able to spell it out lol), just join the discussion and share your struggle. Thanks s
I trade futures every morning in the US session. I don't think I've started a day without the sense of overwhelming dread before the market opens. For me it is the unknowns of the day and how the market will develop. At times my heart is beating so hard and so fast I'm sure the next door neighbors can hear it. And I haven't even positioned myself yet. I liken it to the start of a race where every participant is in the blocks but the race hasn't started yet. That anticipation is what drives the winners. It is NOT bad per se, it just is.

I attribute this mostly due to the fact that markets are usually ranging just before the open and it always a crap shoot to find the right side to position yourself on and then the "what if's" drive you crazy. So what helps me is the thought that I will open no position until I see my signal...(which usually comes within the first 1/2 hr after market open). So this automatically puts my mind into observation mode and my "sense of dread" calms a bit. I've been doing this a long time (for me) and it still occurs...that fear that I missed the move...that fear that I got in on the wrong side of the move...blah, blah, blah.

So here are a few questions you can ask yourself to calm your emotional mind and put your observational mind back in control:

  1. How do I know I've missed the move if it hasn't occurred yet?
  2. Even if I "missed" the 1st wave can I get positioned on the 2nd wave (which is usually the longest and most profitable)
  3. Did my methodology give a contrary signal to this move? If so, is my signal accurate under these conditions?
  4. Is my signaling correct? If so what is holding me back from taking this signal?

  1. Perhaps my fear is overriding my signal

Finally...We all know that our methodologies are never 100% accurate. But you should have a very good sense of how accurate it is and which conditions are best for your method. The discipline to just NOT trade is also difficult but profitable when used correctly. Again in my experience, I have a 3 loss rule. If I lose 3 times in a row...I'm done. No matter how good the next signal is, there seems to be something interfering with my thinking and I must limit my losses. Likewise. I have a goal for each day/week/month and when each of those is met I stop trading. I have found no logical reason to put newly acquired profits at risk once the goal has been met. Keep you profit at least for a day and then return the next day. This is the same for the week and the month. Sometimes I stop trading on Tues because I've made my weekly goal...sometimes I am lucky to break even after the week is over.

We've all been there and completely understand this feeling. I hope you take some comfort in the fact that you are not alone and if you at least attempt some of the above techniques I think you will find your largest fears will leave you behind, and the smaller ones you will be able to manage much better.


auricforecas Jul 3, 2019 3:48pm | Post# 12

I think you should never trust yourself completely There is an example of a trader that had a wife or secretary.. that he used to control (over)trusting himself...
He gave her (some of the) money and said.. "One time I will come to you and say that I have and EXCELLENT can not lose opportunity... and WHATEVER I say, do not give it to me!" Because as the famous quote goes, it is absolutely true... "It Ainít What You Donít Know That Gets You Into Trouble. Itís What You Know for Sure That Just Ainít So"

There is also a good rule in management... that if everything is perfect (in a company) and/or no-one complains... none of the employees.. etc..
It is time for SERIOUS panic BUTTON to be hit.. because something is very wrong... Because no system/company is perfect, do not let me even start how (un)perfect trading/er is And some say that when the woman/partner is SILENT/QUITE... something must be very wrong

I personally believe that trusting must be earned or calculated somehow... For example... there were many people busting their assets because they over-trusted themselved or their system.. I also understand what you might be referring too... I myself also struggle with this of course.. I found the solution to decide firmly to trade my plan... This where TP/SL/TS levels come in a good use.... so you set the trade(s) and stop watching... Or program certain trades in advance, if possible.... and do not watch it if possible... I do not have that much problem ENTERING the trades.. but if I watch LIVE... specially when the market goes COMPLETELY opposite just SECONDS/minutes after I enter the trade.. and it doesn't seem to be stopping either... I get scared shitless sometimes... because this smaller timeframe charts gets quite spooky... distorted reality... but If I watch the overall picture later.. it seems just a miner SWING before it goes to the right direction.... not so at LIVE feed, when it looks hopeless... when it seems to JUMP 5-20PIPS... and it looks like trend change etc... you got the idea..

So I find it is best to ALWAYS have a little doubt.... There is also a rule in MOTORCYCLING.. that goes that when you are too used of the BIKE.. SELL IT..
because if you get too confident.. you might risk too much... ->accident...

We are also different personalities... I just can not bear the absolutely watching the trades LIVE.. at least not when the STAKES are really high... high-leverage... when one big spike can wipe you out etc... one rumour, tweet etc.. I much prefer to do extensive/incremental analysis, and SET and FORGET the trades... for certain time.. check later... unless I am trading LIVE NEWS... BANKS etc... but I try to avoid that as much as possible... it is good just for play/burney money on mobile phone for example... but not for real trading, too much uncertainties.. unless one has the (technical) advantage, info etc...

So my advice would be... pretty generic... PLAN your TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLAN... KNWO WHEN NOT TO TRADE.. and KNOW YOURSELF and KNOW YOUR WEAKNESS(es)... If you have other (profitable) component... and have (self)trust ISSUES... then DEAL with it.. in a way that you "outsurce" this trust... to computer or work with a partner/team. that will trade according to your plan/signal.. OR... trade yourself.. (in micro account, with few cents or DEMO.. although I would much advise REAL account even with cents...) and VERIFY/check your "JUICE" from statistics/tradelist in retrospect.. but count the trend-surfing in etc... so to extract ALPHA.. which is very hard.. as I am disgusting in another thread about the JUICE... So to speak... "TRUST BUT VERIFY" famous saying In fact I would be afraid of "100% confident" trader.. would never give him to trade (my) money

OBsayMkMoney Jul 3, 2019 11:44pm | Post# 13

2 Attachment(s)
Everything previously stated is valid. Here however is something that I learned that helped me not only in trading, but in life. Listen to Prosperity Programming by Shakti Gaiwain. Her along with another person i can't remember put this thought into my head. The world is filled with blessings, and yes.. money. Just because you lose some, or don't have any doesn't mean that you won't. The money you see just IS NOT YOURS. Meaning it isn't for you. YOURS is coming. Think of it this way. You are on a bus stop, and the wrong bus comes. Unless you are late of course, you don't feel anxious that the bus isn't yours? No, you smile, help the old lady onto the bus, and wait for yours patiently. This will help you not freak out over loses, and FOMO. It will slow down your trading, and make you wait for YOUR bus. Rather than trying to get on the first one that pulls in and ending up making a left at Albuquerque. Once IN a trade. Trust your self. Before you had skin in the game(took the trade), your were logical. You looked at your chart, saw some things. and went for it. Then all of a sudden you doubted yourself. Why? Because NOW.. you have money to lose. What also helped me was I was lucky enough to find a free zoom course. Or at least it was free for the time. The trades I saw him set up were similar to mine. Also I would look at some of his and see flaws.. Those I wouldn't take, and sure enough they failed. (Seeing that pebble in the other guy's eye can often allow us to see the boulder in ours because it makes us an observer, and not a defender of an action). But the biggest hurdle for me was to stop trying to get EVERYTHING. I will leave you with this. Most of the things in life that are sweet and delicious are bad for us. The fact that this is giving you anx just proves you are on the right path. Everyone is right where they are supposed to be.. just don't rock the boat, land is on the horizon.



One last thing. Load up a robot trader in demo.. and watch how it traps the market. You know the basics.. you just need the last push, and watching an emotionless robot trade a range is a beautiful thing.

These also helped me.....
automatic-trendlines.mq4Swing alerts.ex4

JCAnderson Jul 4, 2019 3:14am | Post# 14

As it was mentioned above, the issue is mostly in the sphere of psychology rather than trading skills. Sometimes even expereinced professional trader may face something like this. To deal with such situations we need to understand their nature, the reasons why they occur. To my mind, they could be the following:
1. Trader had a substantial loss recently and still hasn`t finished psychological recovery. In such case it would be better to suspend trading and take a short rest paying no attention to the markets at all to "reboot". Then it would be necessary to perform in-depth analysis to figure out the reasons leading to such losses - some trading mistakes. After this it would be possible to start trading again using the smallest possible position size to reduce psychological pressure and fear of making a losing trade. Sometimes it would be better to start with demo trading to ensure that profitable trading is possible.
2. General disbelief in trading potential or in possibility to earn money using one particular strategy or by trading in general. In such case trader needs to prove himself that his strategy is profitable and it is possible to earn money using it. There are several ways to deal with this. First is demo trading mentioned before. It helps the trader to understand that he could trade profitably. If the trader doubt in the strategy, it could be checked by backtesting on historical data using some kind of special tools like Forex tester or something like that. So, when you know your strategy itself is profitable, and you have relaiblae information on ist profitability (backtesting system report), the only thing you need to earn money is to make yourself to act each time you spot the pattern you a looking for. See the setup - send an order. Just hit the button, without doubting on whether it is necessary to enter the trade right know, or maybe it will be better to trade the next time - nothing like that. Trader needs to work as a robot, with no emotions. The results of one particular trade mean nothing, only the general performance is important. If the strategy is profitable, the results would be positive, even if there would be several losing trades in a row previously.

The Fool Jul 4, 2019 3:21am | Post# 15

Why would anyone trust themself? I am probably the last person I would trust. That's why I am always trading against myself. In other words, I am trading up, down and sideways. One of them has got to be right....

Harry6 Jul 4, 2019 4:02am | Post# 16

Why would anyone trust themself? I am probably the last person I would trust. That's why I am always trading against myself. In other words, I am trading up, down and sideways. One of them has got to be right....


I like your line of William Blake: Welcome in the Fool's Club {C}{C}[IMG]file:///C:\Users\Harry\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image002.png[/IMG]{C}

In respect to trust, I experience in myself a deep bottomless hole of basic existential distrust. And if we see the insane and inhuman behavior, I know I am not alone in this. The only difference is that the "fool" knows this deep down in his guts.

Since more than 12 years I spent an average of two hours/day trading..... I lost thousands and still did not make it.

If you read through my short profile, you know why I continue until the bitter or (hopefully) the sweet end.

My results in the metal competition are average and faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar better than I ever did.

So unless I can turn 100$ into 200$ demo, I sit on my hands filled with real duff.

And again, like life itself in essence, trading is soooooooooooooo simple, but not easy @ all.

Keep going strong.

PS: what helped me a lot is looking my distrust and fears straight in the eyes, and feed them with the deepest compassionate understanding.

These are gateways to life's basic trust itself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDVA_WdbCDo

And this helps me a lot. You too?

Wait4Trade Jul 4, 2019 4:14am | Post# 17

Fear is a consequence of uncertainty and market is a quintessence of uncertainty.
I think there are two main points to conquer fear:
1. Adopt a high probability of total collapse.
Use money management to hold out a little longer.
Donít use martingale and average down.

2. Get as more certainty as possible.
You need a lot of experience of course.
As the team we coded hundreds of strategies and about 1,000 indicators.
We tested most of public methods.
In a term of 1000 trades most of the strategies fall in zero mines commission.
The best of them returns zero after deduction commission.
As a result, we decided to evolve discretional trader skills.
This task required developing the method of recognition similar days to display price scenarios on current day.

And what about fair?
I accepted the nature of the market.
And I have a little non-trading business as Plan B

The Fool Jul 4, 2019 4:30am | Post# 18

And this helps me a lot. You too?
I never experience fear trading anymore. Or regret. I guess it's like....I have become comfortably numb....

Inserted Video

Harry6 Jul 4, 2019 6:03am | Post# 19

{quote}I never experience fear trading anymore. Or regret. I guess it's like....I have become comfortably numb.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FrOQC-zEog

I like this prism...............

Our soul is a prism too, but now alive, jeweled


MzansiObi Jul 4, 2019 2:36pm | Post# 20

Hey bud,
Speaking from experience, when I first started I was loosing alot of money all due to impatiemcet, and I realised often times you do your analysis and when price seems like it's taking forever to get to your identified levels or meet your criteria I would loose money. And in most instances price would reach those levels and react how I had initially thought it would when it got there. So I simply asked myself, do you wanna loose your money quickly or patiently? And I use the word patiently cause when I introduced patience into the realm I made better entries and better decisions and profits followed........I haven't read what the others have said yet as it's quite lengthy but will get to it.......just my 2cents worth......

auricforecas Jul 4, 2019 4:56pm | Post# 21

If you have the trouble trading your plan, have doubt INTRATRADE etc... I would suggest a mantra, some people here recommended meditation etc... I wouldn't go that far at this level that I think you are asking.. but MANTRA aka some form of "prayer", "auto-suggestion" etc.. would be quite beneficial...
Movie "Book of Eli (2010)" is very good reference for this - it might give you an idea or even show the power of this re-affirmations... You have to have some sort of training for this because in emotional/irrational state... you can do something you might regret.. This is the idea about any (fire)drills etc.. to prepare yourself to be put on AUTO-EXECUTE in an emergency or chaotic times since critical thinking is in jeopardy... and you can not think clearly so you put on AUTO... The alternative would be to train yourself to FEEL NOTHING as the very good traders... and be absolutely cool about your trades.. somehow (emotionally) detached but focused/confident in your plan and yourself.. Another good/classic clip in my opinion (for emotional part)...
Inserted Video


Also I would suggest for you to PROTECT your dreams.. aka do not share your dreams/vision with naysayers, because trading is hard as it is - in fact one of the hardest activities in the world... without people giving you additional doubts etc.. it is enough to deal with your own I believe... Relevant clip (protecting your dreams)..
Inserted Video

tzamo Jul 4, 2019 10:45pm | Post# 22

Thanks to everyone for their inputs and to steep89 for starting the thread.

Rmg mentioned above that not having an edge could be the root cause of the distrust. Early on in my trading journey I was trading about 4-5 different strategies at the same time, with what I considered to be with edges. At the time I had no clue about correlation of strategies, or risk, and when most strategies started to go into losing periods the distrust came with it with broken discipline. What I learned from that is to go into each day accepting the "bad" case loss runs, these must be calculated from a positive expectancy system though, with an edge.

I then adopted the mindset of accepting that within these 1000 trades, I could potentially hit x losses in a row to cause $XXXX draw-down and within the next 2000 trades I could hit more losses in a row to cause $x amount of pain in equity and drawdown. In each case, making sure that the potential loss runs do not take me out of being able to keep trading to execute my edge. I just say "I know I can lose $xxxxx within these 1000 trades, it is ok, and I am ok with that because I did my work and have a systematic process to follow that will win in the long run". Finally if that process still maintains an edge is another question

Best Regards,
Tzamo

EventsTrader Jul 4, 2019 11:20pm | Post# 23

Thanks to everyone for their inputs and to steep89 for starting the thread. Rmg mentioned above that not having an edge could be the root cause of the distrust. Early on in my trading journey I was trading about 4-5 different strategies at the same time, with what I considered to be with edges. At the time I had no clue about correlation of strategies, or risk, and when most strategies started to go into losing periods the distrust came with it with broken discipline. What I learned from that is to go into each day accepting the "bad" case loss...
It's very impressive how you're analyzing and improving your approach. As traders we get hit hard, but the comeback is always sweet. One thing a wise man once taught me, always remember, your biggest drawdown is still in front of you. Not necessarily percentage-wise. But it's an important part of my psychology. As we grow, we trade larger volume, and have to handle bigger losses. But my fellow trader, it's all en route to our gains. I wish you nothing but profits. All the best.

HeyYou Jul 6, 2019 3:06pm | Post# 24

even though I lost money overall I'm still trading with the same enthusiasm of 8 years ago when I started as a stuupid martingaler...

my predictive models work well on a live acc and above all I'm sticking to the plan!!

HeyYou Jul 6, 2019 3:10pm | Post# 25

I don't want to encourage you... just sharing my experience

AnthonyWins Jul 6, 2019 4:11pm | Post# 26

hi, I've had my fair share of getting my a** whooped around over the years. The emotional pain attached to trading is incredibly real to me. Depressive phases, feeling inferior and not worthy, apparently being the only trader in the world that was not making money, you name it. Aside from having a, excuse the arrogance, good understanding of how particular markets move/operate at particular times of the day, i have found that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for me was is trusting myself. I do not mean that from a technical perspective, or...
I will not write motivating phrases and quote successful people. As a result, any quote is an attempt to project someone elseís success into your own successful or unsuccessful experience. I believe that fear (like any emotion) is a manifestation of weaknesses, imperfections. These weaknesses cannot be suppressed, because then it will become subconscious. Fears need to be understood. And only understanding is the path to healing. You made a big step when you created this thread. Congratulations.
Do not think about the end result, think about the process. This will help you focus more on the forecast. Accept the fact that your goal will not always be achieved and this is a normal situation.
Further, I could advise you to study a little about psychology (find literature or a professional).

a1plus Jul 6, 2019 9:32pm | Post# 27

The best advise to anyone struggling with discipline is to automate your strategy and take human error out of the equation.

dkrock Jul 6, 2019 9:39pm | Post# 28

For as much as possible, I remove myself from the decision-making process. I am only the button pusher. I have a developed entry and a developed exit. What happens in-between them is out of my control. Do I still get upset when the market fools me? Sure. But when I recognize I am not calm, I concentrate on listening to my breathing. That brings me into the present moment. I am not thinking of past mistakes nor future goals. I am in the present.

I have made thousands of trades. My system is designed to trade mathematically. It calculates complex formulas that I cannot do in my head. Over time, I learned to stop trusting my instinct and start trusting the math. In reality, I made the math work for my parameters, so the pattern it creates is from my own mind. I am the pattern and the pattern is me. If I wanted to trust my mind with blind instinct, then should I also trust it with the math it developed? It does not make every available pip, and sometimes making only half the pips of a move can seem unsettling. However, it is about consistency. When I tried to make pips, I mostly lost. When I tried to not lose, I mostly won. Now, I tell myself all the time, it does not matter if I didn't get all the pips. I made money overall. I changed my business plan from chasing pips to using risk. Since I rarely lose now, then I can maximize my risk on every trade. If I am trading 50 lots and make only 2 pips, then I made $1000. Because I use consistency, I can do that on several pairs at once. Since I use risk, I can do that on several accounts at once. As soon as I accepted 2 pips instead of 5, my profit soared. Getting 5 meant I had to make a lot of guesses and be subject to a lot of head fakes. Now, I am not and I am much happier just making money by compounding it. I only use 2 and 5 as examples based on current ranges. In the past those numbers might be 125 and 200. Late last year, it was more like 35 and 50. Whatever the range is, I don't try to find the high nor low, but the area that moves vertically without draw down, and accept whatever that result might be.

Probably you do not have an exit signal. That is why you are stressed. You do not really know when to exit. To start that process, consider your entry process. Is it usually accurate? Then why not make the exit the next entry? If that is consistent, then it is just a matter of tightening the signal to improve the pip count, but not to the point that it changes the win/loss ratio.

Probably you are trading support/resistance too, so you are trading fake data. That would also mean you are not able to compare time frames. Support/resistance does not have any probability calculations in it. It is simply trading the last trade all over again. Since the new trade has new traders with new lots sizes and new reasons for trading, it makes no sense to trade the last trade again. S/R trading is highly touted by banks to convince people to risk money at prescribed trading levels so they know where the money is and can steal as much as possible. Otherwise, s/r trading is meaningless. It simply exists as a place to go and get mugged.

If you have accuracy, but still have emotions in your way, then you need to demo until you overcome them. Just like everything else in life, the more you practice, the better you get. Things that were scary in the past are now second nature, like swimming, driving, dating, etc. Once you develop an exit, then develop the habit. Once you develop the habit, then create the profit. It is that easy. Good Luck.

Doomseeker Jul 8, 2019 2:37pm | Post# 29

I battle with such thing by fully understanding the risks and the whole idea of that thing which is completely lost for everyone else out there - persistance and understanding at once. You should realise that your case is not unique at all and be prepared to battle with it in only possible way - by doing things and finishing them and be proactive every damn day and being calm at the same time which only I would say comes with practice. And yes.....leverage is the shit

MoneyZilla Jul 8, 2019 4:21pm | Post# 30

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Just HOLD IT. The cost of positioning with the big move is not that expensive anymore, if one can just hold it. Forget demo. Do it live only. Feel the real pain... of holding it.

At the 1,000 pips mark now (1,000 pips = $100 USD on Gold).

Next goal is 1,500 and 2,000 pips. Maybe in 2020?
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HairyHarley Jul 8, 2019 4:37pm | Post# 31

Great thread!

Yes this is very real for me too.

What helps?

For me it's eating well (natural foods and minimal junk), sleeping well, no alcohol (makes me depressed), being super-disciplined with when and how I trade and (this is probably THE most important thing) not needing the money. By that I mean that my day-to-day bills are paid for with other work, this takes away the "need" to make money trading which stops me forcing a trade, getting desperate and trading like an idiot. It means I relax and just wait for the best set-up and yes, trust my gut.

It works but patience is the key so yes meditation can be great for that too.

auricforecas Jul 8, 2019 6:56pm | Post# 32

Great thread! Yes this is very real for me too. What helps? For me it's eating well (natural foods and minimal junk), sleeping well, no alcohol (makes me depressed), being super-disciplined with when and how I trade and (this is probably THE most important thing) not needing the money. By that I mean that my day-to-day bills are paid for with other work, this takes away the "need" to make money trading which stops me forcing a trade, getting desperate and trading like an idiot. It means I relax and just wait for the best set-up and yes, trust my...
Nice! It's funny that you mentioned it... It seems that everything is connected... I have observed it as well... also the others that I have talked about this...
Even how you take a dump affects your trading, because everything is related and one act changes everything.. That is why some people have strong discipline, rules... etc... to never let go, never fake, act etc.. but BE yourself completely... "Two for the Money" (2005) movie reference (Al Pacino),

Walter Abrams : [while having dinner at Walter and Toni's home] I'm thinking putting "John Anthony" on TV this week if you do this, from here on out you're going to have to eat, sleep, breath, talk, walk and fart "John Anthony" that's the way it is there's no holding back you've got to be it or it doesn't work https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0417217...ters/nm0000199

Or in "his" words... "American Beauty" (1999)
"In order to be successful..."
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HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 3:17pm | Post# 33

The best advise to anyone struggling with discipline is to automate your strategy and take human error out of the equation.


hmmm that will not help to get rid of emotions in any way... you still need a perfect plan to prevent yourself from intervening...

Not saying that emotions are "bad" in fact from what I undestand they they are like shortcuts.. but i'd rather use logic..

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 3:36pm | Post# 34

What about math ? well the market is not an equation.. so don't be stubborn with emotions & math.. use logic.. the old forgotten logic.

auricforecas Jul 10, 2019 4:32pm | Post# 35

What about math ? well the market is not an equation.. so don't be stubborn with emotions & math.. use logic.. the old forgotten logic.
Or Mathematical-Statistics to check if you have the statistical advantage... If you/one would/could be able to estimate/prove that he/she has the statistical advantage aka JUICE in the range of far beyond chance.... and later extracting ALPHA (eliminate trades when "everyone" was winning) etc... that would be very good CONFIDENCE (return) loop I am still waiting for my trades to be analysed this way.. I know something about it... but just enough to know that it is very hard to DERIVE thins info out of trades... the key is in the assumptions.. If assuming random, some traders seem to be gods... and here is the rabbit in the bush.... to do the proper assumptions before analysis

Right then.. I would really TRUST myself... but even then... I still believe in a reasonable doubt or at least to HEDGE or have the safe heaven aka untouchable (golden) reserves

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 4:41pm | Post# 36

{quote} Or Mathematical-Statistics to check if you have the statistical advantage... If you/one would/could be able to estimate/prove that he/she has the statistical advantage aka JUICE in the range of far beyond chance.... and later extracting ALPHA (eliminate trades when "everyone" was winning) etc... that would be very good CONFIDENCE (return) loop I am still waiting for my trades to be analysed this way.. I know something about it... but just enough to know that it is very hard to DERIVE thins info out of trades... the key is in the...
OK, logic: "reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity."

what you mean is predictive modeling:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_modelling


math: 2+2=4... not exactly when you trade.. I mean there's risk involved

auricforecas Jul 10, 2019 4:55pm | Post# 37

{quote} OK, logic: "reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity." what you mean is predictive modeling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_modelling math: 2+2=4... not exactly when you trade.. I mean there's risk involved
Tnx! I know that much about math-stat that I have trouble believing in the conclusions... I have put my trades to many traders (and other tech/sci professionals) in review (over the last 10 years)... they told me I might be onto something, however I am still not convinced... Here is the easter egg, if anyone noticed: You know why I am hard to get conviced? One reason is that I do not gamble, I need to know (something to play, not just random hope; but most important reason is... that the core of my price pridiction model of 10years is around one most unusual parameter there is, noone seem to talk about it.. I just can not believe it that it can be so vital (outside of heavy interventions/events) of course... and if true I understand why there is so high loss rate.. because this paramter dominates everyting, specially in the longrun.. or lets say there is ONE and 1-2 supporting parameters + high impact events/interventions that are somewhat priced-in (sometimes)...End of easter bunny. Back to the track: I have talked to some Math (professors) etc... but they didn't understand the trading well enough Because contrary to what some believe, markets are not random not are there any fixed rules... only chaotic rules at best... Right now for example.. in a no-trend or swinging for some time.. everyone seems to be winning, but what they basically did is WAIT with virtually unlimited exposure... 200PIP+ exposed to gain 0.1PIP for example, true story.. and those are the trades of some of the bigshots here Many fail to undersatnd that, assuming random, 50:50 is only at tp:sl 1:1... if we widen the sl... the probability for TP to be hit increases (linearly aka in proportion; but in overall trades the trades are still 50 50), again.. assuming random... So even trading all that...
interventions... even some "classical" things work some of the time... I have it on the TO-DO.. to give my trades in a deep analysis to some people that would know trading, math and statistics... very well... it is easy to (self)fuck oneself ala gamblers falacy.. or something... because I have seen many "fake" juice over the years...
people tripling account at the beginning, when they just puled it out of the ass basically... they dropped school.. went to see the latest BMW M3... and then got burned by two margin calls in a row.. and the ass was burnt till smoke, they quit...
What happened is that when they started trading.... they "noticed" that the market has a pattern.. like fallin everyday in the afternoon and they though it would last forever... they had no limit, just margin call.... and when they saw TRIPLE account, compared it to bank deposit returns or even some biggest players.. they thought they have scratched god by the balls... Ok you know where Im going with this...

What Im saying is that it is EXTREMLY hard to set PROPER initial conditions or assumptions... once that is established, it is pretty straightforward with very known models.. For example.. if we could assume random over some timeframe... it would be EASY as F... to extract the juice.. just using coin-flip probability formula..
But should one be able to give the probability for certain trades.. in advance... then he should just code it in the TE and wait for a billion, trading till it matches the edge Would it be possible to give probability in retrospect, to somewhat little doubt? Maybe... I think it would.. but haven't made that deep analysis..

and also, many on the Leaderboard will be flushed once the trend will be established, if they do miss it... And one more... trades are not 50 50 (TP wise)...
It has not been uncommon when 2 (type of) traders places different orders... one SELL TP20, one BUY TP20... and giving they have SL wide(r) enough.. they both win... so it was 100 100 for both of them.... negating the SL (level

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 4:59pm | Post# 38

{quote} Tnx! I know that much about math-stat that I have trouble believing in the conclusions... I have put my trades to many trades in review... they told me I might be onto something, however I am still not convinced... I have talked to some Math (professors) etc... but they didn't understand the trading well enough Because contrary to what some believe, markets are not random not are there any fixed rules... only chaotic rules at best... Right now for example.. in a no-trend or swinging for some time.. everyone seems to be winning, but...

yeah always remember



"The main difference between these two (mathematics and statistics) is that mathematical models are deterministic in nature while statistical models include an unknown"

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 5:01pm | Post# 39

i used to see markets in a deterministic way... worst thing you can do!

havo Jul 10, 2019 5:10pm | Post# 40

Whatever you feel its a reflection of your REAL self.. it has nothing to do with "trading" !! ANY normal/emotionally balanced person WOULD NOT feel like you do as soon as you sit in front of your computer and open MT4 (for example)

i strongly suggest you that take a long look in the mirror and see what its going on for real (dont lie to yourself, thats a very stupid thing to do) before carry on this activity

you are either:

A.- Learned to have an automatic negative response to this activity (with or without any logical base)

OR

B.- You have other issues going on in your life and you havent noticed them either (any kind of relations, stress, chemical unbalance, etc)..


My honest advice.. free and easy to put it in practice =)

The trading sole purpouse its to MAKE MONEY, period, plain and simple !! as soon as you open the software you should be hungry for $$, to wait for the right moment to slay the market without a second thought and be 100% confident on what you are doing regardless the results !! NOT to feel everything thats going on with you right now !! think about it !!!


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