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-   -   How do you learn to trust yourself in trading? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=929258)

auricforecas Jul 4, 2019 4:56pm | Post# 21

If you have the trouble trading your plan, have doubt INTRATRADE etc... I would suggest a mantra, some people here recommended meditation etc... I wouldn't go that far at this level that I think you are asking.. but MANTRA aka some form of "prayer", "auto-suggestion" etc.. would be quite beneficial...
Movie "Book of Eli (2010)" is very good reference for this - it might give you an idea or even show the power of this re-affirmations... You have to have some sort of training for this because in emotional/irrational state... you can do something you might regret.. This is the idea about any (fire)drills etc.. to prepare yourself to be put on AUTO-EXECUTE in an emergency or chaotic times since critical thinking is in jeopardy... and you can not think clearly so you put on AUTO... The alternative would be to train yourself to FEEL NOTHING as the very good traders... and be absolutely cool about your trades.. somehow (emotionally) detached but focused/confident in your plan and yourself.. Another good/classic clip in my opinion (for emotional part)...
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Also I would suggest for you to PROTECT your dreams.. aka do not share your dreams/vision with naysayers, because trading is hard as it is - in fact one of the hardest activities in the world... without people giving you additional doubts etc.. it is enough to deal with your own I believe... Relevant clip (protecting your dreams)..
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tzamo Jul 4, 2019 10:45pm | Post# 22

Thanks to everyone for their inputs and to steep89 for starting the thread.

Rmg mentioned above that not having an edge could be the root cause of the distrust. Early on in my trading journey I was trading about 4-5 different strategies at the same time, with what I considered to be with edges. At the time I had no clue about correlation of strategies, or risk, and when most strategies started to go into losing periods the distrust came with it with broken discipline. What I learned from that is to go into each day accepting the "bad" case loss runs, these must be calculated from a positive expectancy system though, with an edge.

I then adopted the mindset of accepting that within these 1000 trades, I could potentially hit x losses in a row to cause $XXXX draw-down and within the next 2000 trades I could hit more losses in a row to cause $x amount of pain in equity and drawdown. In each case, making sure that the potential loss runs do not take me out of being able to keep trading to execute my edge. I just say "I know I can lose $xxxxx within these 1000 trades, it is ok, and I am ok with that because I did my work and have a systematic process to follow that will win in the long run". Finally if that process still maintains an edge is another question

Best Regards,
Tzamo

EventsTrader Jul 4, 2019 11:20pm | Post# 23

Thanks to everyone for their inputs and to steep89 for starting the thread. Rmg mentioned above that not having an edge could be the root cause of the distrust. Early on in my trading journey I was trading about 4-5 different strategies at the same time, with what I considered to be with edges. At the time I had no clue about correlation of strategies, or risk, and when most strategies started to go into losing periods the distrust came with it with broken discipline. What I learned from that is to go into each day accepting the "bad" case loss...
It's very impressive how you're analyzing and improving your approach. As traders we get hit hard, but the comeback is always sweet. One thing a wise man once taught me, always remember, your biggest drawdown is still in front of you. Not necessarily percentage-wise. But it's an important part of my psychology. As we grow, we trade larger volume, and have to handle bigger losses. But my fellow trader, it's all en route to our gains. I wish you nothing but profits. All the best.

HeyYou Jul 6, 2019 3:06pm | Post# 24

even though I lost money overall I'm still trading with the same enthusiasm of 8 years ago when I started as a stuupid martingaler...

my predictive models work well on a live acc and above all I'm sticking to the plan!!

HeyYou Jul 6, 2019 3:10pm | Post# 25

I don't want to encourage you... just sharing my experience

AnthonyWins Jul 6, 2019 4:11pm | Post# 26

hi, I've had my fair share of getting my a** whooped around over the years. The emotional pain attached to trading is incredibly real to me. Depressive phases, feeling inferior and not worthy, apparently being the only trader in the world that was not making money, you name it. Aside from having a, excuse the arrogance, good understanding of how particular markets move/operate at particular times of the day, i have found that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for me was is trusting myself. I do not mean that from a technical perspective, or...
I will not write motivating phrases and quote successful people. As a result, any quote is an attempt to project someone else’s success into your own successful or unsuccessful experience. I believe that fear (like any emotion) is a manifestation of weaknesses, imperfections. These weaknesses cannot be suppressed, because then it will become subconscious. Fears need to be understood. And only understanding is the path to healing. You made a big step when you created this thread. Congratulations.
Do not think about the end result, think about the process. This will help you focus more on the forecast. Accept the fact that your goal will not always be achieved and this is a normal situation.
Further, I could advise you to study a little about psychology (find literature or a professional).

a1plus Jul 6, 2019 9:32pm | Post# 27

The best advise to anyone struggling with discipline is to automate your strategy and take human error out of the equation.

dkrock Jul 6, 2019 9:39pm | Post# 28

For as much as possible, I remove myself from the decision-making process. I am only the button pusher. I have a developed entry and a developed exit. What happens in-between them is out of my control. Do I still get upset when the market fools me? Sure. But when I recognize I am not calm, I concentrate on listening to my breathing. That brings me into the present moment. I am not thinking of past mistakes nor future goals. I am in the present.

I have made thousands of trades. My system is designed to trade mathematically. It calculates complex formulas that I cannot do in my head. Over time, I learned to stop trusting my instinct and start trusting the math. In reality, I made the math work for my parameters, so the pattern it creates is from my own mind. I am the pattern and the pattern is me. If I wanted to trust my mind with blind instinct, then should I also trust it with the math it developed? It does not make every available pip, and sometimes making only half the pips of a move can seem unsettling. However, it is about consistency. When I tried to make pips, I mostly lost. When I tried to not lose, I mostly won. Now, I tell myself all the time, it does not matter if I didn't get all the pips. I made money overall. I changed my business plan from chasing pips to using risk. Since I rarely lose now, then I can maximize my risk on every trade. If I am trading 50 lots and make only 2 pips, then I made $1000. Because I use consistency, I can do that on several pairs at once. Since I use risk, I can do that on several accounts at once. As soon as I accepted 2 pips instead of 5, my profit soared. Getting 5 meant I had to make a lot of guesses and be subject to a lot of head fakes. Now, I am not and I am much happier just making money by compounding it. I only use 2 and 5 as examples based on current ranges. In the past those numbers might be 125 and 200. Late last year, it was more like 35 and 50. Whatever the range is, I don't try to find the high nor low, but the area that moves vertically without draw down, and accept whatever that result might be.

Probably you do not have an exit signal. That is why you are stressed. You do not really know when to exit. To start that process, consider your entry process. Is it usually accurate? Then why not make the exit the next entry? If that is consistent, then it is just a matter of tightening the signal to improve the pip count, but not to the point that it changes the win/loss ratio.

Probably you are trading support/resistance too, so you are trading fake data. That would also mean you are not able to compare time frames. Support/resistance does not have any probability calculations in it. It is simply trading the last trade all over again. Since the new trade has new traders with new lots sizes and new reasons for trading, it makes no sense to trade the last trade again. S/R trading is highly touted by banks to convince people to risk money at prescribed trading levels so they know where the money is and can steal as much as possible. Otherwise, s/r trading is meaningless. It simply exists as a place to go and get mugged.

If you have accuracy, but still have emotions in your way, then you need to demo until you overcome them. Just like everything else in life, the more you practice, the better you get. Things that were scary in the past are now second nature, like swimming, driving, dating, etc. Once you develop an exit, then develop the habit. Once you develop the habit, then create the profit. It is that easy. Good Luck.

Doomseeker Jul 8, 2019 2:37pm | Post# 29

I battle with such thing by fully understanding the risks and the whole idea of that thing which is completely lost for everyone else out there - persistance and understanding at once. You should realise that your case is not unique at all and be prepared to battle with it in only possible way - by doing things and finishing them and be proactive every damn day and being calm at the same time which only I would say comes with practice. And yes.....leverage is the shit

MoneyZilla Jul 8, 2019 4:21pm | Post# 30

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Just HOLD IT. The cost of positioning with the big move is not that expensive anymore, if one can just hold it. Forget demo. Do it live only. Feel the real pain... of holding it.

At the 1,000 pips mark now (1,000 pips = $100 USD on Gold).

Next goal is 1,500 and 2,000 pips. Maybe in 2020?
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HairyHarley Jul 8, 2019 4:37pm | Post# 31

Great thread!

Yes this is very real for me too.

What helps?

For me it's eating well (natural foods and minimal junk), sleeping well, no alcohol (makes me depressed), being super-disciplined with when and how I trade and (this is probably THE most important thing) not needing the money. By that I mean that my day-to-day bills are paid for with other work, this takes away the "need" to make money trading which stops me forcing a trade, getting desperate and trading like an idiot. It means I relax and just wait for the best set-up and yes, trust my gut.

It works but patience is the key so yes meditation can be great for that too.

auricforecas Jul 8, 2019 6:56pm | Post# 32

Great thread! Yes this is very real for me too. What helps? For me it's eating well (natural foods and minimal junk), sleeping well, no alcohol (makes me depressed), being super-disciplined with when and how I trade and (this is probably THE most important thing) not needing the money. By that I mean that my day-to-day bills are paid for with other work, this takes away the "need" to make money trading which stops me forcing a trade, getting desperate and trading like an idiot. It means I relax and just wait for the best set-up and yes, trust my...
Nice! It's funny that you mentioned it... It seems that everything is connected... I have observed it as well... also the others that I have talked about this...
Even how you take a dump affects your trading, because everything is related and one act changes everything.. That is why some people have strong discipline, rules... etc... to never let go, never fake, act etc.. but BE yourself completely... "Two for the Money" (2005) movie reference (Al Pacino),

Walter Abrams : [while having dinner at Walter and Toni's home] I'm thinking putting "John Anthony" on TV this week if you do this, from here on out you're going to have to eat, sleep, breath, talk, walk and fart "John Anthony" that's the way it is there's no holding back you've got to be it or it doesn't work https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0417217...ters/nm0000199

Or in "his" words... "American Beauty" (1999)
"In order to be successful..."
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HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 3:17pm | Post# 33

The best advise to anyone struggling with discipline is to automate your strategy and take human error out of the equation.


hmmm that will not help to get rid of emotions in any way... you still need a perfect plan to prevent yourself from intervening...

Not saying that emotions are "bad" in fact from what I undestand they they are like shortcuts.. but i'd rather use logic..

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 3:36pm | Post# 34

What about math ? well the market is not an equation.. so don't be stubborn with emotions & math.. use logic.. the old forgotten logic.

auricforecas Jul 10, 2019 4:32pm | Post# 35

What about math ? well the market is not an equation.. so don't be stubborn with emotions & math.. use logic.. the old forgotten logic.
Or Mathematical-Statistics to check if you have the statistical advantage... If you/one would/could be able to estimate/prove that he/she has the statistical advantage aka JUICE in the range of far beyond chance.... and later extracting ALPHA (eliminate trades when "everyone" was winning) etc... that would be very good CONFIDENCE (return) loop I am still waiting for my trades to be analysed this way.. I know something about it... but just enough to know that it is very hard to DERIVE thins info out of trades... the key is in the assumptions.. If assuming random, some traders seem to be gods... and here is the rabbit in the bush.... to do the proper assumptions before analysis

Right then.. I would really TRUST myself... but even then... I still believe in a reasonable doubt or at least to HEDGE or have the safe heaven aka untouchable (golden) reserves

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 4:41pm | Post# 36

{quote} Or Mathematical-Statistics to check if you have the statistical advantage... If you/one would/could be able to estimate/prove that he/she has the statistical advantage aka JUICE in the range of far beyond chance.... and later extracting ALPHA (eliminate trades when "everyone" was winning) etc... that would be very good CONFIDENCE (return) loop I am still waiting for my trades to be analysed this way.. I know something about it... but just enough to know that it is very hard to DERIVE thins info out of trades... the key is in the...
OK, logic: "reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity."

what you mean is predictive modeling:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_modelling


math: 2+2=4... not exactly when you trade.. I mean there's risk involved

auricforecas Jul 10, 2019 4:55pm | Post# 37

{quote} OK, logic: "reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity." what you mean is predictive modeling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_modelling math: 2+2=4... not exactly when you trade.. I mean there's risk involved
Tnx! I know that much about math-stat that I have trouble believing in the conclusions... I have put my trades to many traders (and other tech/sci professionals) in review (over the last 10 years)... they told me I might be onto something, however I am still not convinced... Here is the easter egg, if anyone noticed: You know why I am hard to get conviced? One reason is that I do not gamble, I need to know (something to play, not just random hope; but most important reason is... that the core of my price pridiction model of 10years is around one most unusual parameter there is, noone seem to talk about it.. I just can not believe it that it can be so vital (outside of heavy interventions/events) of course... and if true I understand why there is so high loss rate.. because this paramter dominates everyting, specially in the longrun.. or lets say there is ONE and 1-2 supporting parameters + high impact events/interventions that are somewhat priced-in (sometimes)...End of easter bunny. Back to the track: I have talked to some Math (professors) etc... but they didn't understand the trading well enough Because contrary to what some believe, markets are not random not are there any fixed rules... only chaotic rules at best... Right now for example.. in a no-trend or swinging for some time.. everyone seems to be winning, but what they basically did is WAIT with virtually unlimited exposure... 200PIP+ exposed to gain 0.1PIP for example, true story.. and those are the trades of some of the bigshots here Many fail to undersatnd that, assuming random, 50:50 is only at tp:sl 1:1... if we widen the sl... the probability for TP to be hit increases (linearly aka in proportion; but in overall trades the trades are still 50 50), again.. assuming random... So even trading all that...
interventions... even some "classical" things work some of the time... I have it on the TO-DO.. to give my trades in a deep analysis to some people that would know trading, math and statistics... very well... it is easy to (self)fuck oneself ala gamblers falacy.. or something... because I have seen many "fake" juice over the years...
people tripling account at the beginning, when they just puled it out of the ass basically... they dropped school.. went to see the latest BMW M3... and then got burned by two margin calls in a row.. and the ass was burnt till smoke, they quit...
What happened is that when they started trading.... they "noticed" that the market has a pattern.. like fallin everyday in the afternoon and they though it would last forever... they had no limit, just margin call.... and when they saw TRIPLE account, compared it to bank deposit returns or even some biggest players.. they thought they have scratched god by the balls... Ok you know where Im going with this...

What Im saying is that it is EXTREMLY hard to set PROPER initial conditions or assumptions... once that is established, it is pretty straightforward with very known models.. For example.. if we could assume random over some timeframe... it would be EASY as F... to extract the juice.. just using coin-flip probability formula..
But should one be able to give the probability for certain trades.. in advance... then he should just code it in the TE and wait for a billion, trading till it matches the edge Would it be possible to give probability in retrospect, to somewhat little doubt? Maybe... I think it would.. but haven't made that deep analysis..

and also, many on the Leaderboard will be flushed once the trend will be established, if they do miss it... And one more... trades are not 50 50 (TP wise)...
It has not been uncommon when 2 (type of) traders places different orders... one SELL TP20, one BUY TP20... and giving they have SL wide(r) enough.. they both win... so it was 100 100 for both of them.... negating the SL (level

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 4:59pm | Post# 38

{quote} Tnx! I know that much about math-stat that I have trouble believing in the conclusions... I have put my trades to many trades in review... they told me I might be onto something, however I am still not convinced... I have talked to some Math (professors) etc... but they didn't understand the trading well enough Because contrary to what some believe, markets are not random not are there any fixed rules... only chaotic rules at best... Right now for example.. in a no-trend or swinging for some time.. everyone seems to be winning, but...

yeah always remember



"The main difference between these two (mathematics and statistics) is that mathematical models are deterministic in nature while statistical models include an unknown"

HeyYou Jul 10, 2019 5:01pm | Post# 39

i used to see markets in a deterministic way... worst thing you can do!

havo Jul 10, 2019 5:10pm | Post# 40

Whatever you feel its a reflection of your REAL self.. it has nothing to do with "trading" !! ANY normal/emotionally balanced person WOULD NOT feel like you do as soon as you sit in front of your computer and open MT4 (for example)

i strongly suggest you that take a long look in the mirror and see what its going on for real (dont lie to yourself, thats a very stupid thing to do) before carry on this activity

you are either:

A.- Learned to have an automatic negative response to this activity (with or without any logical base)

OR

B.- You have other issues going on in your life and you havent noticed them either (any kind of relations, stress, chemical unbalance, etc)..


My honest advice.. free and easy to put it in practice =)

The trading sole purpouse its to MAKE MONEY, period, plain and simple !! as soon as you open the software you should be hungry for $$, to wait for the right moment to slay the market without a second thought and be 100% confident on what you are doing regardless the results !! NOT to feel everything thats going on with you right now !! think about it !!!


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