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-   -   How do you learn to trust yourself in trading? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=929258)

auricforecas Sep 7, 2019 6:41pm | Post# 81

Well the eternal question of trust: Do you trust yourself in life? Euh....do you TRUST life? The unfolding basic goodness in existence????? If in doubt or simply NOT, then try to build durable ego trust.... I NEVER succeeded in more than 40 years efforting. I only had illlusionary, false trust. And when that false trust collapsed, within myself a made a free fall through a gaping bottomless hole, crashing in an infinite ocean of never ending inconsolable, unbearable sadness, despair, rage, hopelessness and terror. And that very space opens to eternal,...
You hit the nail there... People are trying to solve certain issues that are not (just) trading specific, but are part of the greater picture... Trading (at least the real one, not just filling positions, reselling, market making...) is the ultimate test of anyones limits and personality... That is why I always stress that we should breakdown trading to components.. because FEW people are able to be almost perfect at everything... The main 3 components I would extract from anyone(s) (system) is price prediction, risk management and personality... If any component is off (too much), the trader will be in the negative.. For example.. some people are good at price prediction, you can see their charts/predictions, but they do not follow it or get emotionally crushed and either close the trade (too soon) or chase the loses... I mean, imagine if any trader would have some OCT issue... Knew a trader that was good but he had this "must be divisible by 3" -something (either number of trades or balance or whatever.. still don't quite understand what all had to be dividable so overtraded into loss... Or one guy wanted balance/return to be "rounded"..
Yeah, you won't believe how possible it is to make many "high-pip" trades... and do "just one more", like only TP0.1PIP and your balance get crushed So one would have to be like terminator, emotional wrecks don't last long if they do not recognise this and either use comp help or some other trader that executes for them... Knowing your weakness is the key... I think that one must become nothing, before becoming everything (potentially). Ego is the most expensive thing, specially in trading... That is why many WS/fin guys ONLY care about the money (at trading for example), because for every thing that you care in addition to it... you must PAY for it... everything costs big money... Many argue that it is impossible to be profitable at all... let alone to price-in all those "luxuries" like egotrip, fixations, cockfights... Just check some other forums... some guy might have the juice (now and then) but is obssesed with "buying the dips"... that can make him profit, in the shortterm.. but in the longrun his positions might be locked forever... btw... he has some locked positions and still refuse to sell them... He would be fired so fast that his.. would burn... but since he's "prop trading" for his "money"... no much loss, just wasting time/life

Ok you got the picture.. some issues are not (only) trading related but wider picture... Many personalities are unfit for trading completely... They love organised systems... that is why they are in some (glorified) profession that has this... the profession where path might be hard but the "awards" are known.... Those kind of people are either not interested in trading or give up quickly.. because they do not understand that markets give zero f... how "good boy" someone is.. how much school or how loyal you are or whatever... this is totally irrelevant, basically.. so they go nuts if they see someone "lower than them" (by their standards) pulling serious buck... and they thing "it is not fair"...

Ok, typed too much, hope anyone gets the point which I do not say is right! Just my opinion/observation... I personally do not TRUST anything/anyone in trading... Because this is expensive... Trusting would mean we are SURE.. and that is the RED ALARM word.. in markets... You should never trust yourself (completely) in trading, tbh... BTW people that lost everything in any crash... did trust themself.. And usually they didn't lost lifesavings.. that is what most people do not understand... The serious cases from any crash are those that lost money they didn't have... aka borrowed... to the point of no return (should things go south)... and if they do... So DOUBT is good in trading, because there are almost zero certainties in markets... one should never forget that... You could make beyond awesome return/profit and be crushed in the next trade... That is why some gurus just disappear overnight I would say, TRUST buy verify (and always doubt aka risk manage, hedge, contingency plan

I might be wrong! So please do not argue ppl, just my 2b...

Not-KPMG Sep 10, 2019 3:59pm | Post# 82

hi, I've had my fair share of getting my a** whooped around over the years. The emotional pain attached to trading is incredibly real to me. Depressive phases, feeling... periencing, but struggling to articulate (I know a bunch of people who were in this very boat without being able to spell it out lol), just join the discussion and share your struggle. Thanks s
Hi

Just saw this.

Good thread. 👍

I'll suggest reading through my journal. 🐢🐢🐢🐢
I've been there.😱😱😱

MikeDNC Sep 10, 2019 4:11pm | Post# 83

{quote} Hi Just saw this. Good thread. I'll suggest reading through my journal. I've been there.
Can't find it. Is there a link?

ar72212 Sep 10, 2019 6:04pm | Post# 84

Read, hear, learn, demo, demo, demo, live, live, demo, demo and then back again on real trading and still learning.

dkrock Sep 11, 2019 6:00am | Post# 85

Here is an interview with three different, relatively famous, psychologists that work with traders and athletes. There is also an mp3 of the interview that you can download just prior to the excerpt. Maybe it has some ideas that can help you?

https://www.viperreport.com/how-to-t...-losing-money/

Kennard7 Sep 11, 2019 10:20am | Post# 86

Hello thanks for sharing your experience with us. I've been struggling with that issue of FOMO also. Earlier this summer, I set out with mindset of making money in the markets and that's all I was think about. I had my strategy in place, markets I was going to trade, risk management in place and my trade rules. But what I didn't take into account was that, I didn't understand the slow down in the markets during summer. I ended up blowing my account because i started chasing trades not understanding market conditions and it cost me. I started to fall into depression and self piety feeling like I wasn't good enough to continue. I thought about just going away from the markets for a while but something told me that I loved it to much to just quit, so I thought about what I could have down better and came to the conclusion " PRACTICE" go back to my demo account. I was able to face my mistakes and accept the risk that comes along with trading. Now I'm committed to my practice account, perfecting my strategy, following my rules and being relaxed as well as confident that I don't have to take every trade but let the market come to me.

hjs69 Sep 11, 2019 10:56am | Post# 87

I think I can add here, study your charts, print them out and study them and you will see.

auricforecas Sep 11, 2019 1:33pm | Post# 88

"Trust" in general is a very dangerous word in the markets... I think at least little doubt is good... People that lost the most in any crisis/crash or whatever.. were the ones that were either "sure", "trusted" someone too much, even self... The "RED" signal is when any trader is using words/keywords/phrases in the style of "100%", "Can't lose", "Very confident", "I trust", "I figured out the system"... Just run like hell if you hear those.. because it is either a scam/fraud/ignorance or gambler talking... I might be wrong people, but this are my LONG-term conclusions...

And I also love this quote...
Inserted Video

Harry6 Sep 12, 2019 9:51am | Post# 89

"Trust" in general is a very dangerous word in the markets... I think at least little doubt is good... People that lost the most in any crisis/crash or whatever.. were the ones that were either "sure", "trusted" someone too much, even self... The "RED" signal is when any trader is using words/keywords/phrases in the style of "100%", "Can't lose", "Very confident", "I trust", "I figured out the system"... Just run like hell if you hear those.. because it is either a scam/fraud/ignorance or gambler talking... I might be wrong people, but this are...

I like your reasoning AURICF....

All makes sense: bottom line. The ego is a LOSER. This brings us to the point that the only way left to go is "back home": recontact the basic trust of our own unique, living, normal, simple, jeweled essential true human nature.

Harry6 Sep 13, 2019 9:16am | Post# 90

Well, yes, I mentioned that: never, ever give up....I am definitely in that, but when............this "patience-persistence" attitude becomes pride and stubborn????? stupid donkey-stubbornness?????
This is definitely blackhole for me: is the universe through my soul whispering: stop? Enough? Or simply: trust the sweet unfolding process and move on?



If you want to master a skill, you have to focus and practice, practise, practise.... Since Sept 2007, real & demo combined - I made an average of 20 trades/day, 400/month, about 5000/year for ten years and still NOT there..... Lost more than 100K$. Now I am practising to trade only hour/4hours chart, UK & US open, news trading. I use half of maximum leverage, and stay alert until profitable or go out manual with max stop 5-10pp. Preference XAUUSD, USDZAR & USDMXN. High spread is no problem with volume & momentum. Goal: double 100$ account before going real again. To become regular with 8/10 small losses and 2 wins who largely make up for the losses. Approaching goal. NOT there as yet.

gravitist Sep 13, 2019 1:45pm | Post# 91

How do you learn to trust yourself in trading?

You can't. You either have confidence in yourself or you don't. You can't learn that, it can't be taught. You either have it or you don't.

HeyYou Sep 13, 2019 2:15pm | Post# 92

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"Trust" in general is a very dangerous word in the markets... I think at least little doubt is good... People that lost the most in any crisis/crash or whatever.. were the ones that were either "sure", "trusted" someone too much, even self... The "RED" signal is when any trader is using words/keywords/phrases in the style of "100%", "Can't lose", "Very confident", "I trust", "I figured out the system"... Just run like hell if you hear those.. because it is either a scam/fraud/ignorance or gambler talking... I might be wrong people, but this are...
since it's Name:  Image1.png
Views: 517
Size:  4 KB time..I'm going to add some nonsense to the DIScussion / DISclosure.
yes if you rely just on confidence you are going to need a lot of "luck" in this business/game. however, actual skills bring results and therefore trust and confidence.

tiborf71 Sep 13, 2019 2:20pm | Post# 93

How do you learn to trust yourself in trading? You can't. You either have confidence in yourself or you don't. You can't learn that, it can't be taught. You either have it or you don't.
yes, trading requires a definite personality.

tropical_g Sep 13, 2019 2:24pm | Post# 94

if trusting yourself is a question then you likely have a trading methodology that isn't consistent. many people will tell you that success lies in psychology. you need to understand that psychology won't rectify a shit trading methodology no matter how you paint it. psychology and trust is the result of a trading methodology that produces results consistently. if you don't trust yourself what you really saying is you don't trust your approach in the market.

HeyYou Sep 13, 2019 2:40pm | Post# 95

{quote} since it's {image} time..I'm going to add some nonsense to the DIScussion / DISclosure. yes if you rely just on confidence you are going to need a lot of "luck" in this business/game. however, actual skills bring results and therefore trust and confidence.


by the way (very important )
by "results" I don't mean crazy returns.


If you can manage to make 10% over a year period, which is the average return of the SP500, you have all my respect.

auricforecas Sep 13, 2019 8:41pm | Post# 96

{quote} by the way (very important ) by "results" I don't mean crazy returns. If you can manage to make 10% over a year period, which is the average return of the SP500, you have all my respect.
I do understand what you might trying to say and I completely agree... The general rule by the "agency" is that if you make/promise 10%+/year it is most probably scam/ponzi/fraud... Many seem to forget that Madoff promised "only" 10% and couldn't take all the money in, for many decades, until recession... we know the rest...

"His returns were high (10 to 20% per annum) but consistent, and not outlandish. As the Wall Street Journal reported in a now-famous interview with Madoff, from 1992: "[Madoff] insists the returns were really nothing special, given that the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index generated an average annual return of 16.3% between November 1982 and November 1992. 'I would be surprised if anybody thought that matching the S&P over 10 years was anything outstanding,' he says.""

So I would add that I would be impressed by 10% consistent returns, year after year.. or after some substantial number of (somewhat equal) trades, volume etc... In short, just to count out luck as much as possible.. because in order to get 10%+ return just for one year, one could simply just flip a coin... 10% is rather easy with hight-leverage... specially if you only publish the "flip" that made it through So like 10%+ in 3-6m.. after some good trades and withing good DD.. Well you get the idea, but I think this is what you meant also

MoneyZilla Sep 14, 2019 1:37am | Post# 97

{quote} ...If you can manage to make 10% over a year period, which is the average return of the SP500, you have all my respect.
Are you serious?

10% a year will get you nowhere...

To build bigger cash, with only 10% a year, you might be reaching your big cash goals, just before the ocean levels rise with 65 meters, flat.

I will give you an example.

Imagine you have a small business. Having 200k operational capital. Doing 100k monthly in revenue. That is 1.2 mil a year. Making 10% out of the annual revenue of is something. Like 120k of net profit per year? Not bad at all.

On the other hand, making 10% a year, on the cash at hand (the 200k operational capital or your account balance in trading, with other words) is simply a joke! You better line up for a monthly social help delivered by the government. You will make nearly similar income without having the need to work (trade) and risk your 200k on the markets...

If you are a man of money already (not many of that breed here at MM/FF), then 10% of annual returns is really great!

HeyYou Sep 14, 2019 2:20am | Post# 98

{quote} Are you serious? 10% a year will get you nowhere... To build bigger cash, with only 10% a year, you might be reaching your big cash goals, just before the ocean levels rise with 65 meters, flat. I will give you an example. Imagine you have a small business. Having 200k operational capital. Doing 100k monthly in revenue. That is 1.2 mil a year. Making 10% out of the annual revenue of is something. Like 120k of net profit per year? Not bad at all. On the other hand, making 10% a year,...
hahhaha you are right....but if you are very young......in 20 years you made 500+% by doing NOTHING.

HeyYou Sep 14, 2019 2:43am | Post# 99

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MoneyZilla Sep 14, 2019 3:49am | Post# 100

{quote} hahhaha you are right....but if you are very young......in 20 years you made 500+% by doing NOTHING.
It usually takes 20 years. It took me 20 years to multiply over 1,500 times my starting capital back then... That is hardly 500%. It is more like 150,000%. I think this is what most poor people like me would target at, to start with. I used to be a semi-homeless for 2 years, from 20 to 22...


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