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CactusFund May 15, 2019 2:16pm | Post# 1

Fundamental Analysis
 
There is not a lot of active threads that delve into the fundamental drivers in the markets, I want to create a space where ideas are put to the test and critiqued. These ideas can range from FX, stocks, bonds - basically, anything, where there is a fundamental lining to it, is welcome and as a result, I am sure we will be able to get a better firm understanding of the markets.

CactusFund May 17, 2019 6:41am | Post# 2

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This week I entered into 3 new trades bringing my total to 5 trades, within these trades I am heavily short the NZD and I am also taking a heavy risk-off stance to the markets

Next week the calendar is jam-packed and I will be looking at the reaction to these releases/speeches to help gauge the overall risk tone. As this week has been a relatively risk off but it is slowly starting to wane which is evident by looking at the fear indicator

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The EURCAD is pair I will be watching closely next week to determine the risk sentiment in the market, as you can see the pair is trading in a tight range and where it goes next will be determined next week which will go on to set the theme for where the markets are heading next.

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This week for me the main fundamentals have been:

  1. US-China trade war
  2. Dovish RBA and RBNZ
  3. Oil supply shocks and Poloz being hawkish


CactusFund May 27, 2019 1:27pm | Post# 3

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Last week the main themes where:

  1. US-China trade war
  2. Oil
  3. Brexit/EU elections


Only placing one trade last week which was a long on the EURCAD I am starting to get the impression that Oil may start to go to the downside for the following reasons:

  1. Trump will push for lower Oil prices whether that is through the help of OPEC or not
  2. An article I read (forgot which but probably Bloomberg) said that Russia may need to sustain their output as to not lose revenue

Another thing I will be watching this week is what the BOC has to say. Last time they came across more hawkish than neutral and I can easily make an argument for and against them maintaining a dovish stance, which is what I think (& want Poloz to do), especially with the Fed starting to also take this stance and the IMF numerous time hinting at a waning global growth.

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CactusFund May 31, 2019 9:50pm | Post# 4

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This week started to pick up towards the end, we saw the risk off tone continue however which pair in the FX space to choose was somewhat challenging (I was already in a few trades and therefore new trades were hard to come by)

One pair I will be watching closely is a CADCHF short for the month, this ties in nicely with risk off and increase in Gold that is expected to come, especially with a dovish Fed starting to get priced in the markets

This is a chart of CADCHF compared with UKOIL/Gold

We can see that the correlation is getting stronger and that price is going down, this will, therefore, be a key chart to look out for this month

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FxNewsFlow Jun 1, 2019 1:26pm | Post# 5

This week started to pick up towards the end, we saw the risk off tone continue however which pair in the FX space to choose was somewhat challenging (I was already in a few trades and therefore new trades were hard to come by) One pair I will be watching closely is a CADCHF short for the month, this ties in nicely with risk off and increase in Gold that is expected to come, especially with a dovish Fed starting to get priced in the markets This is a chart of CADCHF compared with UKOIL/Gold We can see that the correlation is getting stronger and...

Might be better off looking at the yen pairs. Swissy has lost its shine as a safe haven after the SNB removed the peg. That doesn't mean its a bad trade, just doesn't carry as much potential.

CactusFund Jun 16, 2019 1:01pm | Post# 6

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{quote} Might be better off looking at the yen pairs. Swissy has lost its shine as a safe haven after the SNB removed the peg.
Thanks for your reply, I was about to argue my point (whilst still partially agreeing with you) that CHF is the best currency to look at when looking to correlate it with the price of Gold but it seems this is no longer the case as the SNB gold reserves have drastically reduced.

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However, it is weird that a moderate correlation still exists

dele5000 Jun 16, 2019 1:38pm | Post# 7

Hi guys, what should we be expecting from market this week, risk on or off

venividivici Jun 16, 2019 1:58pm | Post# 8

Hi guys, what should we be expecting from market this week, risk on or off
Risk off, iran, china, india. vs usd

CactusFund Jun 17, 2019 8:56am | Post# 9

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Hi guys, what should we be expecting from market this week, risk on or off
Right now the markets are waiting for the FOMC meeting to take place to give a clearer direction of where the market is heading in terms of risk. The Fed may be cutting in July and with inflation data not picking up confirmation on Wednesday will certainly give us the signal we need, also there are a lot of other central bank meetings this week which should prove to be useful.

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Right now I am watching GBPUSD and GBPAUD closely and the BOE/FED/RBA will give me a clear indication of which pair to trade, right now the GBPAUD is looking favourable, especially now that the RBA is moving from neutral to dovish

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dele5000 Jun 17, 2019 9:10am | Post# 10

Thanks man! Please as things get clearer from your perspective, do not hesitate to share here. Your effort is much more appreciated


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