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cat Jun 20, 2019 6:26am | Post# 241

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Here are those diversion patterns on Dax and Dow mentioned above. They are not confirmed yet, but the price is looking like it might be putting in an intra-day top on both, so worth keeping an eye on.
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cat Jun 20, 2019 10:35am | Post# 242

These diversion patterns have held well so far. I think a daily close today on Dow below 26,700, which was the 2018 high, so the left shoulder as we look at it, could be very significant.

PariCovek Jun 20, 2019 11:25am | Post# 243

Oil and Dow looking like nice short levels... would be short with SL tight on entries.

Although, I think WTI may want to touch 4H 200... So I'd be tight on the SL.

cat Jun 20, 2019 11:47am | Post# 244

Looks like we might get a bit of a pullback on Dow now or soon, so the big test will be whether it can recover to today's high, or break down to end the day below 700, which for me, will be a bearish sign....pulling back a bit now. 700-730 looks like the sort of level it may head for before turning south again, if it's going to go lower.

cat Jun 20, 2019 12:49pm | Post# 245

220 pip drop on the Dow from that diversion on today's R3 pivot. The support was the 30m 100sma, which is probably as low as it'll go today.

PariCovek Jun 20, 2019 12:50pm | Post# 246

220 pip drop on the Dow from that diversion on today's R3 pivot. The support was the 30m 100sma, which is probably as low as it'll go today.
Spot on

cat Jul 1, 2019 2:40am | Post# 247

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Got some MACD diversion on my Dax 15m atm, so be aware of that, and a level on the weekly chart that Dax may be headed for.

Atm, the bullish trend is strong, but this diversion if it holds may bring it down a bit before it goes higher, if it goes higher.
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cat Jul 1, 2019 4:50am | Post# 248

My last two posts show what a powerful tool diversion can be. The 10m chart with those very negative candles combined with the diversion pattern were as good a sign as any that the price was going to fall back.

Dax could drop to around 500 if it can get past the 2m 200sma which is holding it atm, and then the 5m 100sma a bit lower down at 533. Today's R1 pivot is at 510, so the 500 area does look like potentially pretty strong support if the price can get there.

notyetthere Jul 1, 2019 7:45am | Post# 249

Looks like a double bottom here. EDIT: then again it doesn't ...

cat Jul 1, 2019 8:30am | Post# 250

Looks like a double bottom here. EDIT: then again it doesn't ...
Yes, looks like it's found good support, and the Dow is only 100 pips below its all time high, so the Yanks may buy it higher. Around 590 looks like a possible resistance level for the Dax if it can get back up there.

cat Jul 1, 2019 2:45pm | Post# 251

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Did the Dow Jones peak today?

Last week's Doji, the triple top, and today's sustained selling, leads me to think that it just may have done. Certainly, these are very critical levels.
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PariCovek Jul 2, 2019 9:27am | Post# 252

Did the Dow Jones peak today? Last week's Doji, the triple top, and today's sustained selling, leads me to think that it just may have done. Certainly, these are very critical levels. {image}
SHould be an up move first... 719 or 753 level, 786 potentially.

PariCovek Jul 2, 2019 9:36am | Post# 253

{quote} SHould be an up move first... 719 or 753 level, 786 potentially.
It sold straight off the 10m/5m 200sma... i added a small position there and closed for 50... Let's see if she can make the fight back.

PariCovek Jul 2, 2019 11:53am | Post# 254

Price held under the 10m 200sma, but there is support on 4H... I'm still favouring downside. But you may consider shorts further up, around the 10m 200.

With oil dropping, you'd think a bit of risk-off for equities, but there's plenty of support on Dow at 683, 641-650, 615, 605. If those levels break, then down to 430-450 area.

cat Jul 6, 2019 6:22am | Post# 255

New highs, better than expected job numbers out of the US - surely US stocks are going to move higher next week, breaking and holding above 27,000?

Not if my TA holds water. Nothing is ever a certainty in this game, which is why unlike others, I am never foolish enough to express anything greater than possibilities, but as market analysts and traders, it is our jog to attempt to predict price action, whether it be intra-day or longer term.

Watch this triple top on Dow, because technically it is significant, and it is holding thus far. I also have an incredibly potentially bearish set up on my 4 day. Why 4 day? Because above the Daily, it is the 4 day I pay attention to, not the 5, just as the next most observed time frame above the hourly, is the 4 hour. If this pattern plays out, July/August could see some big falls, or at the very least, a stalling of the price around this triple top high of 27,000.

Any opinions welcome.

PariCovek Jul 6, 2019 8:09am | Post# 256

Need to be careful with shorting. I was burnt on that rise back up yesterday, even though I thought we would hit the 1H 200sma which it did, I wasnt expecting it to rise back over 900 from there.

I think this US equities market is largely fueled by extra 401k monies, plus international investors, along with less number of shares available after share buybacks. They claim share buy backs is cooling, but its still ridiculously high. So if you lower the number of shares available with modest earnings growth or flat earnings growth then share price only goes north from a valuation perspective, ceteris paribus. Only strong short signals from chart patterns on 1H or higher TFs, coupled with other key indicators such as MACD and RSI imo.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/03/stoc...panic-yet.html

cat Jul 9, 2019 4:57am | Post# 257

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Just following up on my last post about the potentially bearish 4 day pattern I have on Dow, which seems so far this week to be playing out exactly as I anticipated it might. Here's my chart. When the green MA pulls up to pink, it is a very bearish signal. We could fall a lot further as indicated by the arrows, we'll just have to see how it plays out. What made me laugh though was how the mainstream media over the weekend was spouting all over the place about the new highs that were made on Friday, as if prices had now broken from their leash and were certain to move higher. The misinformation to Jo Public is incredible, but those of us in the business who have been watching this big triple top developing knew otherwise.

They may still move higher, one can never rule anything out, but so far this week, they are moving south, and this could be just the beginning.

Sorry for my absence on this thread, I haven't been trading too much lately, but hope to get back to more active involvement next week.

Trade safe!
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notyetthere Jul 9, 2019 6:09am | Post# 258

shorted the CFD this morning at 12475, filled the gap, reversed that at 12381 ... can't complain thus far I have a limi sell on that one at 12434

cat Jul 12, 2019 9:19am | Post# 259

So, the Dow/S&P broke new highs off of the Powell testimony, but I'm not buying it. The US stock market is a junkie on steroids, and this latest move higher looks to me to be a death throe move, nothing more. European stocks meanwhile have been falling all week.

We're traders though, so best just to play the short term but be wary of the bigger picture.

cat Jul 12, 2019 9:30am | Post# 260

Dow doesn't look like it'll do too much today. I've got a first level of resistance around 190, and then perhaps 230 if it gets above that. Support atm looks to be the 10m 100sma around 150.


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