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-   -   Trade the Dow/Dax (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=913416)

PariCovek May 30, 2019 9:07am | Post# 201

{quote} Long 866
Out BE

cat Jun 1, 2019 8:09am | Post# 202

Check out the Dax and Dow monthly candles for May, both full negative without any stalk. It's not just the candles though, as the entire chart set ups are very bearish in my opinion. Yes of course the price can rally next week, or it can drop hard, but either way, these markets are going lower, sooner or later, I just cannot see any other scenario right now. The Dow triple top is already confirmed, and if technical analysis is worth anything, the drop in US and global stocks during May is just the beginning.

PariCovek Jun 4, 2019 7:37am | Post# 203

If Dax is anything to go by for the Dow later today...

I'd say we may have some resistance on Dow at 24992-25000, but if we break that, then it could be gunning for 25,261 for today, and 25,416 over next two days.

Have to wait for the NYSE open, but I like supports at:
24,887,
24,863
24,806-24,821**

PariCovek Jun 4, 2019 9:03am | Post# 204

Looking for a nice short on the Dax at BRN 12k.

Have nice 1H/4H resistance at 970, but I think she wants the BRN

PariCovek Jun 4, 2019 12:03pm | Post# 205

If Dax is anything to go by for the Dow later today... I'd say we may have some resistance on Dow at 24992-25000, but if we break that, then it could be gunning for 25,261 for today, and 25,416 over next two days. Have to wait for the NYSE open, but I like supports at: 24,887, 24,863 24,806-24,821**
Looks like 25,262pts might hold for Dow for today.

PariCovek Jun 10, 2019 9:10am | Post# 206

I'm liking Dow for potential short at 26238 @ 76% Fib or 26,250pts.

medici Jun 11, 2019 10:12am | Post# 207

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I'm liking Dow for potential short at 26238 @ 76% Fib or 26,250pts.
Agreed
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PariCovek Jun 11, 2019 10:14am | Post# 208

{quote} Agreed {image}
Yep, was on it... Out of trades now.

medici Jun 11, 2019 10:19am | Post# 209

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{quote} Yep, was on it... Out of trades now.
Never wrong taking profits, but looking at the 4 hour chart, there should be potential for more.
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medici Jun 11, 2019 10:51am | Post# 210

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{quote} Never wrong taking profits, but looking at the 4 hour chart, there should be potential for more. {image}
Further to that, DJI rarely spends a lot of time outside the 2% envelope around SMA50 (=SMA200@1h), and it always returns to SMA50 before continuation.

So it should go to the 25500 area or thereabouts but, looking a at the bigger picture, I've decided to take profit at 25950 if it gets there today.
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PariCovek Jun 11, 2019 10:52am | Post# 211

{quote} Never wrong taking profits, but looking at the 4 hour chart, there should be potential for more. {image}
Yes, indeed, so I went again..

Out at 095

PariCovek Jun 11, 2019 10:54am | Post# 212

{quote} Further to that, DJI rarely spends a lot of time outside the 2% envelope around SMA50 (=SMA200@1h), and it always returns to SMA50 before continuation. So it should go to the 25500 area or thereabouts but, looking a at the bigger picture, I've decided to take profit at 25950 if it gets there today. {image}
Quite possible... but I think 4H 20sma might throw it up around 980... if it can break 15m 200 today, probably will get down there.

medici Jun 11, 2019 11:00am | Post# 213

{quote} Quite possible... but I think 4H 20sma might throw it up around 980... if it can break 15m 200 today, probably will get down there.
Quite possibly, but I doubt that my stop will be taken out, or that it will venture much above 26200.

Just now a predictable bounce off SMA50@1h, and my target is above lower Boll50 on 1h, which is my short-term target for today.

cat Jun 11, 2019 11:03am | Post# 214

Apologies for my absence of late from this thread, I've just been really tied up, but will get back here to post much more frequently.

Anyway, very happy to see quite a few of you posting here.

Dow triple topped on the 76.4% retrace from the all time highs today, and then fell like a stone just after the New York open, no news that I could see, just a big technical resistance level. There's a lot of support to get through, but I'm really asking myself now whether the price is going to be able to get back up to this morning's levels? I wonder if we've just seen the start of the next big leg down?

ps - correction...76.4% not from the all time high, but from the April high, the right shoulder of the weekly head&shoulder pattern.

PariCovek Jun 11, 2019 11:06am | Post# 215

Apologies for my absence of late from this thread, I've just been really tied up, but will get back here to post much more frequently. Anyway, very happy to see quite a few of you posting here. Dow triple topped on the 76.4% retrace from the all time highs today, and then fell like a stone just after the New York open, no news that I could see, just a big technical resistance level. There's a lot of support to get through, but I'm really asking myself now whether the price is going to be able to get back up to this morning's levels? I wonder if...
Don't think it'll be a massive leg down, but certainly shorting the rallies seems on... Back to 183 would be nice for another short.

medici Jun 11, 2019 11:09am | Post# 216

Apologies for my absence of late from this thread, I've just been really tied up, but will get back here to post much more frequently. Anyway, very happy to see quite a few of you posting here. Dow triple topped on the 76.4% retrace from the all time highs today, and then fell like a stone just after the New York open, no news that I could see, just a big technical resistance level. There's a lot of support to get through, but I'm really asking myself now whether the price is going to be able to get back up to this morning's levels? I wonder if...
Welcome back

Yes, a lot of support, which to me means sloooow going to begin with.

A couple of indications, to me, that things are heading further south are that SMA400@1m acted as resistance at 3.30pm. And SMA200 is about to cross down over SMA400, with both of them now sloping down.

So I'm taking a couple of patience pills.

cat Jun 11, 2019 11:19am | Post# 217

{quote} Welcome back Yes, a lot of support, which to me means sloooow going to begin with. A couple of indications, to me, that things are heading further south are that SMA40@1m acted as resistance at 3.30pm. And SMA200 is about to cross down over SMA400, with both of them now sloping down. So I',m taking a couple of patience pills.
Thank you!

Yes, I was watching this level on Dow, and when the Sunday night gap up stopped on the 76.4% to the pip, and again this level sent the Dow down last night, Today was sneaky though, because it broke and everything looked bullish until it turned... blink and you missed it!

It's on my 30m 100sma support atm, and it may lift a bit off of this now, but I think only to make a lower high. Around 165-185 looks like a level it may fall from if it gets back that high.

medici Jun 11, 2019 11:27am | Post# 218

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{quote} Thank you! Yes, I was watching this level on Dow, and when the Sunday night gap up stopped on the 76.4% to the pip, and again this level sent the Dow down last night, Today was sneaky though, because it broke and everything looked bullish until it turned...
Not quite....The 0.25% envelope around SMA400 is a handy tool
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PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 5:50am | Post# 219

I wrote here yesterday that yesterday's sudden turnaround in US and European stocks may well have been the beginning of the next leg down, and this is why. For those who followed my previous thread ' Are US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing ' https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=787890, you'll know how I/we pretty successfully predicted the main down moves in the Dow throughout the second half of 2018. The charts attached here show why I think, with the 76.4% fib having been hit yesterday, we may be at the...
Its trending lower atm... Have some support at 953 and 913... but you'd think she'd bust through those eventually. We should get some two way trading today again.

PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 6:25am | Post# 220

{quote} Its trending lower atm... Have some support at 953 and 913... but you'd think she'd bust through those eventually. We should get some two way trading today again.
30m 200 has been rock solid on Dax today, took a couple of buys out of there.
Wonder if Dow will hold there too? 25,955ish


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