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-   -   Trade the Dow/Dax (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=913416)

PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 6:52am | Post# 221

As you can see, there's pretty solid support on the H1 100sma on Dax atm, which is sitting on top of today's S1 pivot. I think the price may continue up to either the 50% fib area ( brown marker ) just beneath today's CP, or even higher to the 61.8%, though the CP ( central pivot ) looks like it may offer pretty strong resistance if the price gets that high, which is by no means guaranteed. Either way, I think we are going lower, just depends how far the price rallies before it turns for thew next leg down. {image}
Yeah, intra-day trendline and MAs are showing plenty of resistance... It's just in a neat range for now. I suspect like you, it should go lower eventually. Most likely after Yanks get online and test their resistance zones.

PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 9:57am | Post# 222

Short here at 080...

Hoping for at least 80 pips.

So far not looking bearish

cat Jun 12, 2019 10:02am | Post# 223

This Dow support looks strong, so shorts beware of that.

medici Jun 12, 2019 10:29am | Post# 224

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Good afternoon, chaps

Today seems like an "in-between" day of consolidation. I doubt that SMA100@1h will break, and if it does it'll be after the NY lunch hour.

So a simple range play from high too low.
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PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 10:31am | Post# 225

Out for 74

cat Jun 12, 2019 10:37am | Post# 226

26,000 is a key level, atm rejecting the price. If this can break, then we could see lower levels today on Dow.

cat Jun 12, 2019 10:50am | Post# 227

Out for 74
Well judged!

PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 11:01am | Post# 228

{quote} Well judged!
Yeah, with the Crude Oil data, slightly worse than expected it actually caused a whipsaw and bullish response on Crude. Dow followed it up... but it went down again.

Its the only time I look at Crude Oil and Equities at the same time, when the US crude stockpile data comes out. Otherwise I rarely look at Oil, and less there was a massive move that could enable a counter-trend rally.

PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 11:04am | Post# 229

Good afternoon, chaps Today seems like an "in-between" day of consolidation. I doubt that SMA100@1h will break, and if it does it'll be after the NY lunch hour. So a simple range play from high too low. {image}
Are you still holding those juicey shorts!?

medici Jun 12, 2019 11:08am | Post# 230

{quote} Are you still holding those juicey shorts!?
Yup

medici Jun 12, 2019 11:14am | Post# 231

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PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 11:27am | Post# 232

{quote} Yup
Haha, awesome!

Sorry to be crude, but you must have balls of steel.

Swing trades on Dow, I'd be nervous overnight. But yeah, technically due for a swing lower, how deep, not sure.

medici Jun 12, 2019 11:59am | Post# 233

{quote} Haha, awesome! Sorry to be crude, but you must have balls of steel. Swing trades on Dow, I'd be nervous overnight. But yeah, technically due for a swing lower, how deep, not sure.

Haha no. It's more of a mindset.

If you want to catch the big swings, you need to hold on. Sure, you get stopped out for peanuts every once in a while. But imagine catching every one of the big swings. Worth the occasional peanut harvest, no?

Another aspect of it is that I have learned from experience that I trade best from the one hour chart, using the 1 minute for entry. But setups, targets, etc, all come from the 1 and 4 hour charts. If I only focus on the 1 minute, then I end up taking profits early, and taking too many trades, resulting in losses, and mediocre overall profits.

Finally, and I think most importantly, I don't try to predict what will happen. I make my assessment, enter the trade, and then don't think about it. Hovering over your trades is both unpleasant, and the road to early exits.

In other words, one doesn't need to know what will happen to trade profitably - it's enough to learn to spot the setup, take the trade, set stop and target, and mostly watch it go your way, move stop to a couple of dozen points profit, and leave the computer for the day. One trade a day, or two. That's it.

PariCovek Jun 12, 2019 12:08pm | Post# 234

{quote} Haha no. It's more of a mindset. If you want to catch the big swings, you need to hold on. Sure, you get stopped out for peanuts every once in a while. But imagine catching every one of the big swings. Worth the occasional peanut harvest, no? Another aspect of it is that I have learned from experience that I trade best from the one hour chart, using the 1 minute for entry. But setups, targets, etc, all come from the 1 and 4 hour charts. If I only focus on the 1 minute, then I end up taking profits early, and taking too...
Yes, very true in many ways.
I just probably lack the psychology to master swing trades.
Let us know when you exit, best of luck!

medici Jun 12, 2019 5:06pm | Post# 235

{quote} Yes, very true in many ways. I just probably lack the psychology to master swing trades. Let us know when you exit, best of luck!
I can tell you that already - when it hits SMA200@1h or when SMA50@1h fails as resistance.

PariCovek Jun 13, 2019 5:01am | Post# 236

I wonder if traders got caught off-guard by this move on Dax....

PariCovek Jun 13, 2019 6:03am | Post# 237

I wonder if traders got caught off-guard by this move on Dax....
Short at 199... see how we go

PariCovek Jun 13, 2019 6:32am | Post# 238

{quote} Short at 199... see how we go
Out +30

Should drop, but banked on 1m 200

PariCovek Jun 19, 2019 2:53am | Post# 239

I have supports on Dax at 12330. If it breaks that, then 12300 and 12288.

Major resistance at 12500.

Could be a consolidation day though, in the 12362 and 12288 range.

cat Jun 20, 2019 6:10am | Post# 240

The left shoulder high of 26,700 has been broken on the Dow this morning, and now the head and all time high of 26,955 looks to be in sight. However, the H1 chart is right now sitting on a very nice looking diversion pattern with MACD, so we'll see if that can hold.

Dax looking like it could go either way right now, but it has stalled beneath its R3 daily pivot, and it also has a potentially very strong looking diversion pattern on H1.


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