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robots4me Apr 30, 2019 5:31am | Post# 401

i see no differences between an index, a currency or a share
@parisboy -- thanks for answering my question. To pursue a bit further...

Yes -- I can see patterns and dots go up and down. In fact, they have to go up and down, right? If they only went up or only went down you would run out of chart paper.

But, also, you are analyzing that data in hindsight. So, though they all share cycles of up and down, with the forex market being manipulated in real time it would seem it's a different type of beast than other financial entities. Obviously I need to ponder this more -- it's all very interesting. Again -- thank you.

pooh123 Apr 30, 2019 5:38am | Post# 402

{quote} robots4me a) for me we are dealing on a screen with dots whatever the market we trade d) we can use exactly the same tools and see endlessly the same repetitive patterns, cycles, waves, zig-zags, harmonics patterns etc on whatever financial entity we analyze and trade i see no differences between an index, a currency or a share {image} {image} {image}
I beg to differ. There's a fundamental difference between forex and other trading instruments such as index, crude oil and gold. Yes, there is manipulation with almost all trading instruments. However, the forex market is not a real market at all. It is just a huge bucket shop.

swd Apr 30, 2019 5:55am | Post# 403

There is a physical difference between forex and other markets such as gold and indices but I don't think that is what @parisboy was getting at. There is commonality in the way they move and are manipulated. Forex as we know is an "over the counter" decentralised arrangement offered to retail by brokers as synthetic CFD products whose pricing comes from banks and hedge funds (market makers) who themselves derive their prices from the underlying futures contract for that instrument, like 6E for EURUSD, or 6B for Cable.

Most of the crap that is traded via MT4 may be somewhere away from the real price traded on the interbank market between banks who themselves have credit agreements with each other and thus transact with each other at more favourable prices. What does all of this mean, nothing really. If you can make money out of the market based on your beliefs that prices are moving based on certain behaviours rather than a random walk, then that is really all that matters in the end.

Regards,
Paul

Isabella_D Apr 30, 2019 6:10am | Post# 404

1 Attachment(s)
a few days ago I promised for this thread trades via real account. That comes later, I have little time now.
If you want, you can now watch my demo.

Principles of my trading:
- all timeframes, preferably M30
- various underlyings, in addition to fx always the attention of Oil, DAX ...
- usually no SL, but a rented software for the pain threshold
- Correlation of the underlyings
- respecting news
- mostly pending orders
Expectation of this thread:
Recognize signals visually quickly (signal among many signals)

See here example, GJ M30, entry brown cress
Click to Enlarge

Name: GJ.PNG
Size: 89 KB

pooh123 Apr 30, 2019 6:21am | Post# 405

banks and hedge funds (market makers) who themselves derive their prices from the underlying futures contract for that instrument, like 6E for EURUSD, or 6B for Cable. Most of the crap that is traded via MT4 may be somewhere away from the real price traded on the interbank market between banks who themselves have credit agreements with each other and thus transact with each other at more favourable prices.
I beg to differ here. It's the other way around. Price of currency futures follow the price of spot forex. That might be different from other instruments. If you place a chart of spot forex and the futures chart of the same currency side by side, you'll find a tiny lag in price movement on the futures chart. Besides, the forex market is a trillion dollars daily market (or more precisely, a trillion dollar bucket shop). However, the transaction volume of the currency futures is only several billion dollars daily. There's no way a trillion dollar market follow a billion dollar market.

SwingMan Apr 30, 2019 6:33am | Post# 406

2 Attachment(s)
See here example, GJ M30, entry brown cress
Hi Isabella, here an oscillator just for you
Please check if possible entrys when drawing the first histograms with full color can be useful.
Name:  GBPJPYM30.png
Views: 1560
Size:  14 KB
smSmallWick AvgSlope_v3.ex4

Isabella_D Apr 30, 2019 6:45am | Post# 407

{quote} Hi Isabella, here an oscillator just for you Please check if possible entrys when drawing the first histograms with full color can be useful. {image} {file}
very pleasant that you give me tutoring. I need it very much and appreciate your work very much .
Hope that everyone in this community will benefit from it

swd Apr 30, 2019 6:52am | Post# 408

{quote} I beg to differ here. It's the other way around. Price of currency futures follow the price of spot forex. That might be different from other instruments. If you place a chart of spot forex and the futures chart of the same currency side by side, you'll find a tiny lag in price movement on the futures chart. Besides, the forex market is a trillion dollars daily market (or more precisely, a trillion dollar bucket shop). However, the transaction volume of the currency futures is only several billion dollars daily. There's no way a trillion...
Out of the thousands of spot forex brokers littering the interweb, how many offer currency futures prices vs spot cfd or spreadbet? The spot market is bigger because the barriers to entry have been lowered so that anyone and their dog can enter. The fx swap spot to forward market, and the bureau de change littering airports, high streets and supermarkets the world over count to the spot market. Are their prices fair or current, do they lag? I don't think this matters tbh. I can fill a firm 6E future price in 1ms. With spot you have to get through last-look, where the liquidity provider will offer a price at small volume to suck you in, then spend upto 200ms deciding if they want to fill the rest of your order at that price or slip you a worse price because it suits them. It's a big area, maybe we get off topic a little

The lead-lag relationship is hottly debated, I just picked one interpretation.

Kind Regards,
Paul

pooh123 Apr 30, 2019 7:27am | Post# 409

{quote} Sorry, trading is the same whatever the asset. If you still don't see them all the same, your trading knowledge is not there yet. Trading as in entry, exit and stoploss. You either learnt it or not yet.
Years ago I thought they were the same when it comes to trading. Now I found the difference. That I do agree with you- you either learnt it or not yet.

pooh123 Apr 30, 2019 7:55am | Post# 410

{quote} The fx swap spot to forward market, and the bureau de change littering airports, high streets and supermarkets the world over count to the spot market. Are their prices fair or current, do they lag? I don't think this matters tbh. I can fill a firm 6E future price in 1ms. With spot you have to get through last-look, where the liquidity provider will offer a price at small volume to suck you in, then spend upto 200ms deciding if they want to fill the rest of your order at that price or slip you a worse price because it suits them. It's a...
The money exchanges at airports and supermarkets are not even retail forex as we've been discussing. You get far worse rates from those as you can get from retail forex brokers. Their rates often don't change during the day. You were not making apple to apple comparison.

Order filling is slower in the spot forex world than in currency futures world due to the role of the brokers. However, that doesn't change the fact that price of currency futures follow spot forex.

swd Apr 30, 2019 8:03am | Post# 411

{quote} The money exchanges at airports and supermarkets are not even retail forex as we've been discussing. You get far worse rates from those as you can get from retail forex brokers. Their rates often don't change during the day. You were not making apple to apple comparison. Order filling is slower in the spot forex world than in currency futures world due to the role of the brokers. However, that doesn't change the fact that price of currency futures follow spot forex.
Everything I have said is correct to my understanding, experience and belief. If you have a different understanding then so be it.

Kind Regards,
Paul

swd Apr 30, 2019 8:15am | Post# 412

@pooh123

The "market" is always forward looking, so the futures price relates to the price at some future date at which the contract will be settled. The spot contract price is the priced to settle today. Do you mean to tell me that in 30 days time, the spot price will not "track" the futures price in some way as it changed towards settling at it's future date?

Regards,
Paul

pooh123 Apr 30, 2019 8:25am | Post# 413

@pooh123 The "market" is always forward looking, so the futures price relates to the price at some future date at which the contract will be settled. The spot contract price is the priced to settle today. Do you mean to tell me that in 30 days time, the spot price will not "track" the futures price in some way as it changed towards settling at it's future date? Regards, Paul
No. What I meant to tell you is that, if spot contract price of EURUSD suddenly spikes up, the 6E futures price will follow and spikes up too. The 6E futures' up move might lag a little, like 30, 50, or 100 ms behind that of EURUSD.

There's a video at CME site that explains how currency futures price is calculated. It's based on spot price.
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/c...and-basis.html

swd Apr 30, 2019 8:35am | Post# 414

{quote} No. What I meant to tell you is that, if spot contract price of EURUSD suddenly spikes up, the 6E futures price will follow and spikes up too. The 6E futures' up move might lag a little, like 30, 50, or 100 ms behind that of EURUSD. There's a video at CME site that explains how currency futures price is calculated. It's based on spot price. https://www.cmegroup.com/education/c...and-basis.html
ok, you have proved to me that it is calculated the other way around. However, this doesn't change what I originally said... "If you can make money out of the market based on your beliefs that prices are moving based on certain behaviours rather than a random walk, then that is really all that matters in the end."

I have used arbitrage for years, the calculation itself doesn't change whether I can make money or not. Sometimes future prices are in front of spot, sometimes behind. It doesn't matter to me. But for legging in, futures is king, it's firm, fast and I can pretty much guarantee my entry. For spot baiting, not so much. It's just how I "see it".

Kind Regards,
Paul

pooh123 Apr 30, 2019 8:44am | Post# 415

{quote} "If you can make money out of the market based on your beliefs that prices are moving based on certain behaviours rather than a random walk, then that is really all that matters in the end."
Agree.

Cheers
David

parisboy Apr 30, 2019 9:01am | Post# 416

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} @parisboy -- thanks for answering my question. To pursue a bit further... Yes -- I can see patterns and dots go up and down. In fact, they have to go up and down, right? If they only went up or only went down you would run out of chart paper. But, also, you are analyzing that data in hindsight. So, though they all share cycles of up and down, with the forex market being manipulated in real time it would seem it's a different type of beast than other financial entities. Obviously I need to ponder this more -- it's all very interesting. Again...
Pursueing a bit further !

Robots4me as your aim is for now to detect and work on Tops and Lows, you will find hereunder a tool promoted by Jim Hurst : the Centered Moving Averages crossing.

When Centered Moving Averages whose period is related to others by a factor 2 cross with Price Action , they cross at the half of the move between the Low and the Top of the observed move.

This way you can :

a) forecast the next Low or the next Top
b) confirm the Top or the LOw if you have not forecasted it

then after a Top you enter a Range or a Downtrend
after a Low you enter a range or an uptrend

Chart : crossing = black circles - GBPJPY 5 Days / 5 mn

To avoid hijacking your thread I have not developed the mathematics behind this tool and not shown the various calculations between Tops and Bottoms

I just wanted to give you the "taste" of it
Click to Enlarge

Name: ROBOT CENTERED MOVING AVERAGE CROSSINGS AT THE HALF OF THE MOVE.png
Size: 4.2 MB

skyway Apr 30, 2019 9:11am | Post# 417

If you can make money out of the market based on your beliefs that prices are moving based on certain behaviours rather than a random walk, then that is really all that matters in the end. Regards, Paul
Excellent write. It's our personal belief, not someone else's. Cheers Jason

Blackeagle Apr 30, 2019 9:11am | Post# 418

{quote} @Blackeagle -- thanks for pointing out the link -- ...
I posted that link because it shows how price action works. As I said previously, I don't know how George trades. I spoke to him only once, a short period of time, that's all. But I read his thread and tried to integrate the things I find useful into my own trading strategy. I am trading reversals as well as breakouts. Sooner or later, a level (whatever people call it, support, resistance, herd mentality, sentiment, target, apple, pear etc.etc.) which is important today will lose its relevance in future. At that moment you will need to ignore that level, IMO. Because it is discretionary trading, it is impossible to code that into an indicator. But SwingMan's indicator is the best one can get re. drawing tops and bottoms which can be used for both reversal and breakout strategies. I compared them with my manual drawings on several instruments I have been trading and they are very very close. It's almost midnight here, tomorrow I am going to post a few charts and will try to explain how I view a chart in terms of drawing horizontal lines / zones.

Regards,
Blackeagle

JackJones Apr 30, 2019 9:47am | Post# 419

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watching this one, maybe something like this?
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 27 KB

swd Apr 30, 2019 11:33am | Post# 420

{quote} The money exchanges at airports and supermarkets are not even retail forex as we've been discussing. You get far worse rates from those as you can get from retail forex brokers. Their rates often don't change during the day. You were not making apple to apple comparison.
Money exchanges at airports are offered on a retail basis. It is forex because it is foreign exchange from currency A to currency B. The companies themselves offer these over the counter services by transacting with banks or other foreign exchange companies to provide currency to travellers. It is over the counter spot forex. I agree the rates are crap and rarely updated, but it is still part of the foreign exchange market that processes trillions a day. Spot fx is worth about 30% of the total foreign exchange market not counting forwards, currency swaps and options.


{quote} Order filling is slower in the spot forex world than in currency futures world due to the role of the brokers. However, that doesn't change the fact that price of currency futures follow spot forex.
Spot is slower to fill than futures, but its not just the broker role. B-book brokers, they don't actually go directly to the market, they instead take the retail trades on their own books, and so the prices will be different to spot anyway due to broker markup. In fact it is faster than A-book as the transaction is booked immediately but the slips are bad. A-book brokers go to the market directly, e.g. ECN's or STP. This makes no difference, "last look" is what you have to contend with from the LP if you are on the retail side. If you trading in a bank, then no.

Kind Regards,
Paul


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