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-   -   MM (Money Maker) Detective Indicator (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=911239)

Pip-Miner Jun 12, 2019 6:37pm | Post# 2941

{quote} just to clarify to all our friends at FF; am not saying george methods are bad or anything; I was complaining about the nature of the posts in TMA thread. all the colors, praises, etc was annoying a bit. I personally read many threads; and even commercial threads; wherever I find value; I take it. for example; recently I started following ghostbiker threads. Eventhough many users find those threads useless; but I find a tradeable strategy; that I am trading live as we speak. I always approach posts with open mind; and I encourage anyone...
ghost biker is a serial scammer from Germany. Booted from German trading sites, now targeting here.

alphadude Jun 12, 2019 6:50pm | Post# 2942

{quote} ghost biker is a serial scammer from Germany. Booted from German trading sites, now targeting here.
however; his posts a profitable strategy in his thread.

scammers and forex educators do provide some value. In their attempt to sell services; or "product of not their own"; they come across profitable strategies.

think about it; a scammer works very hard to find a good looking strategy to sell. they help spreading the love.

It's like pimps; they are ugly; but they do lead you to some *pretty* ladies

LongBTC Jun 12, 2019 7:17pm | Post# 2943

OMG this awesome thread (when the noise is ignored) is now worse than a fkin kindergarden... a shame ppl act like spoiled kids with an ego on steroids. Hats of to robots4me for having the patience and energy to keep bothering spend his valuable time here... We all appreciate your time buddy. PC
+1 , so tired of skipping through all the shit chat and biggest dick contests.

robots4me Jun 12, 2019 7:29pm | Post# 2944

{quote} @Robots4me - no idea ! I do not use ADR to evaluate "Volatility" but Gann Octave = basically 1/8 of Price range
@parisboy -- ADR (Average Daily Range) is powerful and simple to use -- both in discretionary and algorithmic trading. And it does exactly what you described above. However, it is an empirical metric, rather than a theoretical one. Perhaps because your engineering-type brain craves complexity then simple is a deal-breaker.

robots4me Jun 12, 2019 7:32pm | Post# 2945

{quote} however; his posts a profitable strategy in his thread. scammers and forex educators do provide some value. In their attempt to sell services; or "product of not their own"; they come across profitable strategies. think about it; a scammer works very hard to find a good looking strategy to sell. they help spreading the love. It's like pimps; they are ugly; but they do lead you to some *pretty* ladies
@alphadude -- your comment started off okay -- you made your point -- but you then went to far. Sex trafficking isn't humorous. Please clean it up or delete your post. Thanks...

robots4me Jun 12, 2019 7:34pm | Post# 2946

{quote} however; his posts a profitable strategy in his thread. scammers and forex educators do provide some value. In their attempt to sell services; or "product of not their own"; they come across profitable strategies. think about it; a scammer works very hard to find a good looking strategy to sell. they help spreading the love. It's like pimps; they are ugly; but they do lead you to some *pretty* ladies
{quote} ghost biker is a serial scammer from Germany. Booted from German trading sites, now targeting here.
@alphadude, @Pip-Miner -- why do I have to referee sh-t like this. You guys are old enough to know better. Use PM and take it offline.

robots4me Jun 12, 2019 7:45pm | Post# 2947

I just now stumbled on @LongBTC's new trading journal thread -- very nice. He does an excellent job of displaying screen shots and explaining things. It will be interesting and fun to follow along. Here's a link:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12326079

BTW -- just to be clear, he didn't ask me to say anything. I subscribe to him and received a notification.

robots4me Jun 13, 2019 12:57am | Post# 2948

Part 1: SIGNALS and FILTERS

I've been working on the next version of the IRUTM indicator and I'll release it either later tonight or tomorrow. On the surface it is much the same as before, but I have greatly simplified it. And the simplification has not come at a cost. The simplification came about as I better understood how a reversal trading system should work.

First I would like to clear up a bit of terminology. Earlier when exchanging posts with @aaven I had stated that we trade off of spikes -- which we do. But that was mocked by @moodybot in a post he later deleted. We trade price reversals. Price reversals typically occur after the price reaches an extreme. Spike is a relative term, is easy to type, and everyone knows what it means. But just to be clear, what I mean by spike is when the price pokes its head above or below a TMA band. In other words, the MM has stretched itself beyond the fair value / equilibrium price to reach for a target level. And it's okay to say 'target level' -- that is what the MM is reaching for. But we don't need to draw target levels in advance. When a spike occurs I'm thinking -- "Oh -- the MM just reached for a target, that's nice. Now, let me see if I can use this as a signal for a reversal trade". So, in reversal trading, spikes / extremes / whatever you wish to call them, are important. A spike is the MM "showing its hand". We can assume that spikes touch a TOPS/BOTTOMS target level or liquidity gap or reach into a TMA Zone -- it doesn't matter why the price reached an extreme. All we care about is that an extreme occurred and we get ready to trade. We always trade away from a target level or TMA Zone.

So, nothing new -- we're all on the same page, right? On to signals and filters.

Signals and filters -- these are simple concepts and, yet, it is important to grasp the difference, especially when it comes to indicators (and EAs). As I mentioned above I've simplified the IRUTM indicator -- and this came about as I better understood the role of signal generator algorithms and filter algorithms. In the future, whenever you think about a trading system, you should break it down into those two components -- how are signals generated and how are the generated signals filtered. Every signal generator will generate both true and false signals -- false signals are also called 'false positives'. Again, every signal generator will generate both true and false signals. Even master @George has to deal with false positives. There is nothing wrong with an algorithm that generates a low percentage of false positives. This is where the filter algorithm comes in -- it is used to clean-up the generated signals -- i.e. distinguish between true signals and false positives.

Whereas @George's mantra is Targets,,,Targets,,,Targets -- mine is Signals and Filters. I don't know if I would go so far as to say every trading methodology can be broken down to signals and filters, but I think it is fair to say that most can. And when you think in terms of signal and filter algorithms, then it is much easier to understand how the methodology works and it is no longer a mystery.

In the case of the IRUTM indicator, the M1 TMA indicator is used for signal generation and a momentum indicator (FX RSI) is used for filtering. And just to add a bit of controversy -- which do you think is more important? Signal generation or a momentum filter? You'll have to read the next post to learn which one and why.

to be continued...

Robot Trader Jun 13, 2019 1:42am | Post# 2949

Part 1: SIGNALS and FILTERS I've been working on the next version of the IRUTM indicator and I'll release it either later tonight or tomorrow. On the surface it is much the same as before, but I have greatly simplified it. And the simplification has not come at a cost. The simplification came about as I better understood how a reversal trading system should work. First I would like to clear up a bit of terminology. Earlier when exchanging posts with @aaven I had stated that we trade off of spikes -- which we do. But that was mocked by @moodybot...
R4M,

Have you thought about the pip accuracy the other camp claim to possess, if (big if) they do know to a pip where the MM will spike the market to, then they can place pending orders at that level. This means they would be in the trade much, much, earlier (maybe this spike could be equal to a third of the move), no indicator will be able to find the Top/Bottom of a spike based on how you are currently coding, because they are lagging PA, so the indicator will always give us a late entry position.

What I was hoping you could come up with is an indicator that can predict these Top/Bottom spikes in advance (based on liquidity gaps or whatever), this would give us two trading opportunities one in the direction of the spike and the second trading the spike reversal but using pending orders, due to PA moving too quickly.

Regards

RT

robots4me Jun 13, 2019 1:52am | Post# 2950

1 Attachment(s)
Part 2: SIGNALS and FILTERS

Click to Enlarge

Name: IRUTM -signals-filters.png
Size: 39 KB

The reason why I wanted to go over signals and filters is because if I can do a good job explaining them and how they are implemented in the IRUTM indicator, then you'll understand why it works the way it does and, hopefully, you'll have greater success using it. And, in fact, it might actually occur to you this is all so friggin simple it was a waste of electrons for me to even go to the trouble of typing this all out.

The screen shot above is the updated indicator. You may notice there is no more ADR. The red and white lines are the M1 TMA bands that are used to generate the signals (blue and purple dots). The filter algorithm (@Nih98's FX RSI indicator) works in the background and is no longer visible. The purple and blue arrows show where the filter algorithm confirmed the signals. Filtering is an option that can be enabled / disabled. When filtering is disabled then there will be more signals, but no arrows will be displayed.

Okay -- back to my question -- which is more important -- signal generation or filtering? And before I answer there was something I forgot to mention -- filtering is NOT the same as confluence. Confluence is when you use multiple signal generators and assume if they both generate the same signal then the signal must be good. NO -- don't do that. Instead, if you must apply redundant algorithms, then go for more filtering. Okay -- I just gave you the answer. Given the choice between a good signal generator or a good filter, I would choose the filter. Using only a filter I think I could do a better job trading than if I only had a signal generator.

As I mentioned in the previous post, IRUTM uses the M1 TMA algorithm to generate signals. When the price pokes below the TMA bands then that constitutes a signal and a purple or blue dot is displayed. That's it -- that's all the signal generator does. If filtering is disabled then there is nothing more. However, if filtering is enabled then additional code is executed that checks whether the signals are consistent with the filter. In this case the filter is @Nih98's FX RSI momentum indicator. If a signal survives filtering then it remains visible, otherwise it gets removed. It is now my opinion that a momentum filter algorithm is the key. Anybody and his brother can generate signals, but it is a momentum filter that will make or break a trading indicator. @George's methodology also uses a momentum indicator as a filter -- he uses 200, 20, 7 SMA across 3 time frames -- i.e. a total of 9 MAs. To me that is like scratching an itch on your left ear by reaching around your head with your right hand. But since @George et al consider indicators useless and since they don't consider MAs to be indicators, then they chose to do it that way. Not all momentum indicators are created equal (more on that when I later release the updated version), but I suspect they perform similarly for the most part.

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but in most of @Nih98's screen shots you can see his FX RSI indicator in the subwindow. I'm not 100% sure, but I now suspect he uses that as a momentum indicator. And if it is good enough for @Nih98 then it's definitely good enough for me.

I think I'll wrap things up here by again emphasizing -- Signals and Filters -- that is all you need. No fancy, theoretical trading theories for me. Just give me a signal and a filter and I can trade.

robots4me Jun 13, 2019 2:10am | Post# 2951

{quote} R4M, Have you thought about the pip accuracy the other camp claim to possess, if (big if) they do know to a pip where the MM will spike to market to, then they can place pending orders at that level. This means they would be in the trade much, much, earlier (maybe this spike could be equal to a third of the move), no indicator will be able to find the Top/Bottom of a spike based on how you are currently coding, because they are lagging PA, so the indicator will always give us a late entry position. What I was hoping you could come up with...
Have you thought about the pip accuracy the other camp claim to possess
@Robot Trader -- I'm surprised at you The pip accuracy is only after the fact. They draw a bunch of lines predicting where the price might reach, right? But they don't know ahead of time which line the MM will go for -- there are always targets above and below. And they don't know when -- it could be the next bar or it could be next week. All they know is that at some point in the future the MM will visit that price.

When the MM does spike up or down it does touch very close to a target level. But all that shows is there is an MM algorithm at work in the background. You'll notice that when @moodybot attempts to call a live trade the MM has already shown its hand -- that is, the spike has already occurred. What comes next is deciding whether or not the price will reverse or keep going. That's when they start applying a bunch of filters -- momentum, ADR, London, Frankfurt, which pair, phase of the moon, etc.

What I was hoping you could come up with is an indicator that can predict these Top/Bottom spikes in advance
That would be the Holy Grail, right? @Robot Trader -- what you are asking for is to predict the future. Sorry, can't be done. The best you can do is wait for a candidate signal and only then apply a filter to rule-out false positives. Hence my new mantra -- Signals and Filters.

I think the M1 TMA is a good signal generator -- better than most. I would guess around 70% of the signals are true signals and 30% are false positives -- just roughly speaking. And that seems like an excellent ratio, right? But we haven't yet talked about Exits, right? And we all know that even if the Entry seems right we can screw things up by being greedy and letting the trade run too long. For the sake of argument let's say we get the Exits right 50% of the time. Do you understand where I'm headed? You get the Entries right 70% of the time (which is good) and the Exits around 50% (which is so-so). Well, 50% of 70% turns out to be a 35% WinRatio -- not exactly something you write home to mom about.

Nih98 Jun 13, 2019 2:17am | Post# 2952

1 Attachment(s)
I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but in most of @Nih98's screen shots you can see his FX RSI indicator in the subwindow. I'm not 100% sure, but I now suspect he uses that as a momentum indicator. And if it is good enough for @Nih98 then it's definitely good enough for me. I think I'll wrap things up here by again emphasizing -- Signals and Filters -- that is all you need. No fancy, theoretical trading theories for me. Just give me a signal and a filter and I can trade.
Hi Bro R4ME, Yup in this example, GBP/JPY M15, still using my general/basic TMA template, FX RSI use as momentum levels and break. currently this is down triangles momentum (Long left W, the opposite of Long left M)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 145 KB

Regards
NIH

robots4me Jun 13, 2019 2:22am | Post# 2953

{quote} {quote} @Robot Trader -- I'm surprised at you The pip accuracy is only after the fact. They draw a bunch of lines predicting where the price might reach, right? But they don't know ahead of time which line the MM will go for -- there are always targets above and below. And they don't know when -- it could be the next bar or it could be next week. All they know is that at some point in the future the MM will visit that price. When the MM does spike up or down it does touch very close to a target level. But all that shows is there...
@George can achieve a high win rate not because he can tell the future but, rather, because he is a very good discretionary trader. Plus, the win rate he reports is misleading. I've come across older posts from other members of the inner-circle where they have talked about @George's use of "basket-trading" and using hedging grids to get out of losing positions. He never mentions that in his thread.

Suppose I see a signal and open a series of 10 trades a few minutes apart -- let's call this basket trading. And in the end let's say that 6 win and 4 lose. I would call that a 60% win rate. @George would call it a 100% win rate because he considers them all part of one basket and the basket as a whole won. And that's fine -- as long as you are upfront about it.

This could get me started again, but I'll leave it there.

bishopdotun Jun 13, 2019 2:22am | Post# 2954

Part 2: SIGNALS and FILTERS {image} You may notice there is no more ADR.
Great job Steve. Thank you.

You explained almost everything quite clearly.

You missed out the ADR. Why?

robots4me Jun 13, 2019 2:35am | Post# 2955

{quote} Great job Steve. Thank you. You explained almost everything quite clearly. You missed out the ADR. Why?
@bishopdotun -- thanks for the good word.

You missed out the ADR. Why?
I'll explain more about this when I release the new version. Basically, there are a couple of reasons:
1. The ADR Touch is a signal generator and it is redundant. Similar signals are generated by the M1 TMA
2. The upper and lower bands of the ADR are constantly adjusting themselves with each new bar. It is only by around mid-day that they hold their position. So, ADR Touch became a moving target. Because of this, I couldn't use Strategy Tester. But now that there is only one signal generator -- M1 TMA -- then it just feels like a cleaner solution. You can still overlay the MM-ADRIndi.ex4 and MM-ADRHistIndi.ex4 indicators to see the ADR Touches, it's just that I will no longer be using them within the IRUTM indicator.

Again -- I'll write more when I release the update.

Robot Trader Jun 13, 2019 3:00am | Post# 2956

{quote} {quote} @Robot Trader -- I'm surprised at you The pip accuracy is only after the fact. They draw a bunch of lines predicting where the price might reach, right? But they don't know ahead of time which line the MM will go for -- there are always targets above and below. And they don't know when -- it could be the next bar or it could be next week. All they know is that at some point in the future the MM will visit that price. When the MM does spike up or down it does touch very close to a target level. But all that shows is there...
R4M,

I see, I never took the time to read what he was claiming, I only ever so the bragging about getting it right within a fraction of a pip and 98% success rate and that was a RED flag for me , so if you put enough levels (lines) on the chart, you have got a very good chance of getting close to the top or bottom of a spike and then you get to pat yourself on the back lots of subscribers and then BINGO a RED badge

I gave up trying to trade reversals using single entry points and SL's, much better to grid and manage your trades, but that in itself takes time management.

I spend more time over the years (not quite 40,000 hours) looking at ways to trade in the direction of PA, different topic than this thread, but I managed to achieve this using very simple indicators (which you have mentioned in this thread and are standard within MT4) The strategy cannot be traded manually (not unless you never sleep) so the EA does the work for me and because it follows PA using very important filters it does not get stuck losing money in Ranging markets.

So at some point if you find reversal trading is not putting money in your account, which at the end of the day is all we really want. I would suggest looking at following the money.

Regards

RT

robots4me Jun 13, 2019 3:11am | Post# 2957

There was something else I was debating whether to mention or not, but @moodybot keeps pushing the buttons. Just like @George et al keep track of what I write about here, I also like reading about how things are going over on @George's thread. @moodybot just uploaded another post -- for the sole purpose of mocking me. Here's the link:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12326488

Readers over on @George's thread are asking questions and request help -- but @George and @moodybot say they are too busy. But, I guess not too busy to write posts devoted just to me. I hope @moodybot doesn't delete this one, like he has many others.

So -- here's the deal. I've mentioned a few times in the past I don't want to release a public EA because it brings a different type of reader and I just didn't want to deal with that. I like the discussions here and being able to learn from the feedback.

I don't know whether this would have an effect, but I would like to discourage @George et al to stop with the insults, verbal abuse, mocking and bullying. So I'm changing my mind about the EA -- I mean, if @George can change his mind about blocking people from his thread, I guess I can change my mind as well. If they continue to persist then here's the plan:

1. Adapt the IRUTM indicator as an EA for trading one pair at a time -- this would take me about 1 hour -- two at most. It uses the M1 TMA signal generator like @moodybot's EA. I'll have an advantage because mine will be public and I'm hoping I'll get good feedback to keep improving it. @moodybot's EA is restricted for use by the inner circle. Also, mine would then give people a choice between 10000 hours screen time or using an EA.

2. If they still continue, then I would adapt the EA for trading 28 pairs at the same time -- about a half-days work.

3. If they still continue, I'll expose the buffer IDs so that coders can use the iCustom interface to access the signals. This way everyone and his brother, including @Pip-Miner, could develop an EA that uses the same signals as @moodybot's EA.

4. If they still continue, I'll start a new thread "How to trade M1 TMA in less than 10000 hours -- includes indicators and EA".

5. If they still continue, well -- perhaps people could send a PM with some additional ideas. My preference is for them to go away -- but if they insist I'll keep matching and raising them.


EDIT: I understand that @George et al proclaim indicators are useless. But now I'm curious about EAs. Are EAs also useless? I mean, @moodybot developed one for use only by the inner-circle. So -- maybe it's that public EAs are useless, but private EAs for use by an inner-circle are not useless. Okay -- got it.

robots4me Jun 13, 2019 3:19am | Post# 2958

{quote} R4M, I see, I never took the time to read what he was claiming, I only ever so the bragging about getting it right within a fraction of a pip and 98% success rate and that was a RED flag for me , so if you put enough levels (lines) on the chart, you have got a very good chance of getting close to the top or bottom of a spike and then you get to pat yourself on the back lots of subscribers and then BINGO a RED badge I gave up trying to trade reversals using single entry points and SL's, much better to grid and manage your trades, but that...
@Robot Trader -- nice post, thanks. I'm glad you mentioned "important filters".

I used to exclusively develop portfolio EAs that were trend followers -- and they worked okay. I have nothing against trend following. It was only after I first began learning about MM manipulation from @George that I then became interested in how to trade reversals. It just seems simpler to me -- we'll see.

Anrod Jun 13, 2019 3:28am | Post# 2959

Hello everyone,

thanks to all of you for your contributions this far. I am keeping an eye on this thread for some days now and you guys seem to make great progress. I am currently live trading Davits pivot trading method on the H4 timeframe with some nice results. To complement my trading, i am also looking for a lower time frame strategy and this one seems quite promising. Very interesting to see the development here.

I did not read any of Georges thread, the fonts and ",,,,," kept me away, so i am not sure what's going on, but it's quite entertaining .

I am currently wrapping my head around the source code of Nih98's "TMA Centered Multi Bands Indi" indicator. As i said i am new to the "TMA game", so there are still some question marks above my head. I hope that i will be able to contribute to this nice strategy in the future. Have a nice day everyone!

Nih98 Jun 13, 2019 3:46am | Post# 2960

I am currently wrapping my head around the source code of Nih98's "TMA Centered Multi Bands Indi" indicator. As i said i am new to the "TMA game", so there are still some question marks above my head. I hope that i will be able to contribute to this nice strategy in the future. Have a nice day everyone!
Hi Bro @Anrod, just want to inform you that this 'centered' version is 'intended repainting' TMA bands version. If you want to change it to NRP version, then you should replace the centered MA module with, NRP MA module inside the code main loop.

Regards
NIH


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