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-   -   Trading on expiration (time betting) (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=909865)

vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 10:33am | Post# 1

Trading on expiration (time betting)
 
Hey traders, i have a question.

Is it possible to bet in time ?
.so for example to bet: in 5 min price will be higher or lower then when it started.
.

? I dont know products that offer that and i cant find anyone so i would be happy if you can answer

(Binary options i know but they are blocked in eu)

Kind regards.

vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 11:46am | Post# 2

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The thing why i m asking is this:

If u use a 2000 ema
With 5 min candlestick

If the candle touches ema and closes above or below you have a entry point

Then follow the entry point

Then of course or in most case price (or candles) will move away from ema. In most cases u have (depending on the direction more upwards or downwards candle (if its above or below) in a certain period of time

See picture

So on cfd you cant win cause of the spread

It would be possible if every candle has the same amount of value then it would work if you bet:

-if candle closes above, you only bet every candle expiration time upwards till you make enough profit and vice versa for below ema

On the chart i posted you see there a more downwards candles (after closes below moving average the upwards)

If would be cool if every candle had same value the the strategy would be in profit)

Before price (or candles return) to moving average you stop


If you would know how to value every candle that it has same amount in 5 min exp for example i would be happy

Kr
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vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 11:48am | Post# 3

When the candle crosses from above there are 25 black candles and 17 white candles! So if they would be valued 1 unit per candle there would be risk : reward 1 :1 and above > 50%

So the strategy would make consistent profit!

Kr

vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 11:55am | Post# 4

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Here is another example

You would have 17:8 i think ,if unit per candle is 1 !
You would make incredible profit i guess and have a background if it ranges at moving average for new entry and still be in profit

With binary option 90% payout it would work but binary is blocked for eu citizens .. and i like more serious trading tbh
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NewSim Apr 16, 2019 12:54pm | Post# 5

Then of course or in most case price (or candles) will move away from ema.
How did you come to this conclusion?

vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 1:07pm | Post# 6

{quote} How did you come to this conclusion?
Cause its the average of 2000! Last prices.

Price must move from there otherevise you could predict it if it would follow

2000 average .... thats what it isnt in that case = average.... it moves away...

NewSim Apr 16, 2019 1:13pm | Post# 7

{quote} Cause its the average of 2000! Last prices. Price must move from there otherevise you could predict it if it would follow 2000 average .... thats what it isnt in that case = average.... it moves away...
I'm not quite sure what you are saying but I think you are mistaken.

Moving average lags price so I don't see how price could follow it, unless there is a jump based on a big candle dropping out from the calculation.

Either way price doesn't have to be pushed away to not follow it. I'd recommend doing a lot more backtesting on this. You could find out that it's statistically significant, but I would doubt it.

vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 1:35pm | Post# 8

{quote} I'm not quite sure what you are saying but I think you are mistaken. Moving average lags price so I don't see how price could follow it, unless there is a jump based on a big candle dropping out from the calculation. Either way price doesn't have to be pushed away to not follow it. I'd recommend doing a lot more backtesting on this. You could find out that it's statistically significant, but I would doubt it.

Good point.
You can try maybe and watch it yourself. It realy isnt too often at the moving but thanks i will sure look it up even closer

The point is what i wanted to ask, is it possible to value the candle to the same amount ? I didnt find a way yet

Thanks for ur answer !

vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 1:39pm | Post# 9

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That are the last few days for example. Its most of the time "consistant" in a sort of way - away- from moving.

I will do more backtest of course !

But for that first i would need to figure out my question somehow -.-

Thanks again!
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NewSim Apr 16, 2019 1:53pm | Post# 10

{quote} Good point. You can try maybe and watch it yourself. It realy isnt too often at the moving but thanks i will sure look it up even closer The point is what i wanted to ask, is it possible to value the candle to the same amount ? I didnt find a way yet Thanks for ur answer !
I've seen people post about something called MoonRekt on twitter where you can bet on crypto closes, but I've never tried it and I've never seen anything similar for fx. My instinct is that stuff like this might be dodgy legally and easier to find in the wild west that is crypto.

As for your strategy I would find a way to test it systematically with clear rules and backtest it over at least a year, inputting your results into a spreadsheet. I've backtested M1/M5 strategies that looked like the holy grail for 1 month (90%+ 1R) and then went to complete shit over the next months.

vortexpme Apr 16, 2019 2:08pm | Post# 11

{quote} I've seen people post about something called MoonRekt on twitter where you can bet on crypto closes, but I've never tried it and I've never seen anything similar for fx. My instinct is that stuff like this might be dodgy legally and easier to find in the wild west that is crypto. As for your strategy I would find a way to test it systematically with clear rules and backtest it over at least a year, inputting your results into a spreadsheet. I've backtested M1/M5 strategies that looked like the holy grail for 1 month (90%+ 1R) and then went...
Yeah i think too there is a difficulty to achieve that!

Thats the problem its seems good but isnt often. Forex is a hard one to be profitable but i think to test it i would need bit more.

It would be cool to test in use with renko bricks 1 pip per renko... but of course spread is average 2 ! Pipps ... so it would make sense but 1 pip would be cool to test for backtest and say a stop at 20 pipps for example etc....

Renko 1 pipp but of course there is no broker without spread

Sooo i think it will be hard.

BUT still,

If somebody know how to value candles as a unit that every candle hast the same amount i would appreciat your help

Kr


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