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-   -   Are We All Gambling? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=876969)

CrocodileRex Feb 3, 2019 12:49am | Post# 161

{quote} for argument sake, so on a 1-10 scale if Blackjack is 9-10, where would you place lottery or slot machines? on the other end of the spectrum, real estate is far from the safest, surely a lot of ppl has learnt that on the hard way, for example in 2008... not to mention that 200$ wont start you with more than a dozen bricks, or a decent mailbox. APPL shares had huge meltdown recently, and it isnt a biotech pharma penny stock...imagine that move with a leveraged position? on the other hand, take any forex trade with zero leverage and your account...
well, you cannot take the extreme of cases and compare like this. I am talking about in general. So, from a scale of 1-10 people, can we conclude that 9-10 are gambling "MORE" in roulette/blackjack, 5-6 are gambling "LESSER" in forex, and so on. Yes lottery and slots are at the cases of 9-10 also. For real estates, you cannot take the 2008 case and compare it like this, i bet most are already recovered by now or only a few got hit really hard. I think profitfarmer you would know that the real estates in southeast asia is actually not bad. nothing too bad since 2008. So you cannot take the bad example from the USA and compare to the whole world.

I had been in this field since 2008 funnily. I can bet that if i invest all the moneys i lost here in forex and simply put it on real estate, i would have been 2-3 times richer. So from a 5-6 to a 3-4 in this case.

On the other hand, if i had invested all my moneys into roulette and blackjack, i would have been 3-4 times poorer. So from a 5-6 to 9-10. Does that make sense to anyone?

Fader123 Feb 3, 2019 3:36am | Post# 162

The backbone of LDFX's argument that FX trading is not gambling is "Positive Expectancy". Here is an article that explains what positive expectancy is: https://www.stator-afm.com/tutorial/...ve-expectancy/ After reading it, I am convinced that the author is just an academic teaching a theory and has probably never traded a thing let alone FX. Firstly, the particulars of a Roulette game are known and can be calculated almost as constants. Tell me, what is constant in FX? In sports, we have constants. For example, the goal...
Crashes do not start over nothing
There has to be something to start it.
That crash on Jan 02 started with emerging market currencies the Turkish Lira started it.
The Aussie is also regarded as emerging market currency
Also every bank was bearish at that time on the Aussie for a number of fundamental reasons. The crash occurred when there was very little liquidity in the market.
This then spread into some of the other currencies.

bluesteele Feb 4, 2019 7:57pm | Post# 163

Quoting a fellow member....

A deck of cards has so many different permutations that if you shuffle one right now, the cards will almost certainly come out in an order that has never occurred before in history.

We're just not very good at understanding how complex some things really are....


80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000, which is the number of ways an ordinary deck of cards can be shuffled

It's more complex than we imagine

TheFxAnalyst Feb 5, 2019 4:51pm | Post# 164

{quote} Lol, that is lame, you said knowing better. You can not blame me to defend my opinion, if you don’t want enlight me then you can even less blame me to not be convinced and agree with you.
How can someone enlighten you when all you do is repeat your bias and argue your belief without an ounce of proof. You're unwilling to accept any point that contradicts what you hope is correct. Belief systems in trading tend to be like politics and religion. They're tied deeply to emotional systems that have zero basis and yet they're embraced as if they're absolute and infallible.

I've been in the business for nearly 20 years and every serious/institutional trader I know embraces game theory as part of their process. But please tell me again how we're all wrong and what you "believe" is correct.

Before you argue any more, you might want to get your read on, google this for some insight: "game theory in trading filetypedf"

LDFX Feb 11, 2019 9:54am | Post# 165

{quote} How can someone enlighten you when all you do is repeat your bias and argue your belief without an ounce of proof. You're unwilling to accept any point that contradicts what you hope is correct. Belief systems in trading tend to be like politics and religion. They're tied deeply to emotional systems that have zero basis and yet they're embraced as if they're absolute and infallible. I've been in the business for nearly 20 years and every serious/institutional trader I know embraces game theory as part of their process. But please tell me...

Well, of course I do repeat with multiple different examples my opinion. Why wouldn’t I if it’s what I think ? Then it is up to the participants to convince me, so far none did, and about proof I did at least explained as well as I could my point of view, have you read all the thread ? Enlight me instead of attacking me because I do not agree with you dude.

Quote : “You're unwilling to accept any point that contradicts what you hope is correct.” That is interesting, isn’t it a labsus from you ? I do not understand how would you think it’s not something acceptable for me, speaking about Hope is coming from you.

I am actually very open to criticism and contradictory opinions because unlike you I know that traders are very isolated and that I will never state anything like ; quote : “I've been in the business for nearly 20 years and every serious/institutional trader I know...”

I mean this is even stupider as racism, how many traders do you actually know in the world of traders ? And even then, how many would tell you how to trade ? Obviously none as shown on your Oanda account.

You gambling on forex doesn’t make Forex gambling. Am I hoping I am right or are you hoping I am wrong ?

EDIT : I mean seriously dude, why would you upload a live account to show exactly what one should not do with 5000 usd ?

PayTheBid Feb 11, 2019 10:37am | Post# 166

Weather we like it or not we are gambling, the moment the outcome is not 100% it is a gamble

Now what we try to do as trader is put the odds in our favor, so the better we learn to do that the more chances we have to succeed

Do not forget that most casinos have an edge of 5% on the played and that is where they make there money, we need to find our edge

Have fun cause it is a long ride!

PTB
Jack

LDFX Feb 11, 2019 12:07pm | Post# 167

Weather we like it or not we are gambling, the moment the outcome is not 100% it is a gamble Now what we try to do as trader is put the odds in our favor, so the better we learn to do that the more chances we have to succeed Do not forget that most casinos have an edge of 5% on the played and that is where they make there money, we need to find our edge Have fun cause it is a long ride! PTB Jack

Read the thread.

DemoForever Feb 11, 2019 12:28pm | Post# 168

All you need to do I visit the betting forums to find a mirror image of Forex Factory. A load of deluded people coming up with complicated mathematical ways of throwing their money down the drain!

Fxmd Feb 11, 2019 12:38pm | Post# 169

If chances are 99%:1% it’s betting/gambling.

If chances are 100% it’s arbitrage.


This is an objective approach. And just a friendly reminder that being offended does mean your right.

OutThere Feb 11, 2019 12:43pm | Post# 170

Who is a legitimate businessman that has to trade fx as a necessity of his/her business?

Someone who deals in commodities.

Who thinks he/she is a businessman trading FX without being involved in commodities?

Someone who "simulates" a legitimate commodities businessman.

The rest is up to you.

PayTheBid Feb 11, 2019 1:00pm | Post# 171

{quote} Read the thread.
Do not need to...read the first page!
Mind you business....and put on your glasses if you do not understand the question on the first page!

LDFX Feb 11, 2019 2:27pm | Post# 172

{quote} Do not need to...read the first page! Mind you business....and put on your glasses if you do not understand the question on the first page!

Are you saying that you ignored all the posts because you have read the first ?

OutThere Feb 11, 2019 6:00pm | Post# 173

{quote} Well, of course I do repeat with multiple different examples my opinion. Why wouldn’t I if it’s what I think ? Then it is up to the participants to convince me, so far none did, and about proof I did at least explained as well as I could my point of view, have you read all the thread ? Enlight me instead of attacking me because I do not agree with you dude. Quote : “You're unwilling to accept any point that contradicts what you hope is correct.” That is interesting, isn’t it a labsus from you ? I do not understand how would you think it’s...

Then it is up to the participants to convince me, so far none did

This is funny. maybe the title of the thread should be changed to: Convince LDFX that trading FX is gambling.

Let me break it to you: You haven't convinced anyone that trading FX isn't gambling let alone it is like running a business. Positive expectancy is your only reason that I recall you have but cars have positive expectancy and they fail. Replace'cars' with just about any other thing that has a positive expectancy.

Maybe I am wrong. Anyone has been converted from gambling to business by LDFX? Tell us what converted you.

Maybe you are not communicating your point properly. Tell us how you trade that makes it a business and not gambling.

OutThere Feb 11, 2019 6:30pm | Post# 174

I don't think this link will survive the mods but it is a sales pitch that tries to convince you to part with your money and invest it with them based on positive expectancy. I think LDFX fell for that one.

https://financialmentor.com/investme...nvesting/17094

I think people fall over themselves to sign up if they believe this line:

"For example, if you varied the payoff to $2 for every winning flip, and $1 lost for each losing flip, you’d suddenly have a positive expectation game assuming your odds remained unchanged"

No brainer..where do I sign?

So there you go. Every trade you make, you win twice as much as you lose and you will be alright!

OutThere Feb 11, 2019 11:45pm | Post# 175

In casinos they give you a set of options and limitations on all sorts of ways. Those options lead you nowhere but eventual and certain loss and there isn't a damn thing you can do about it. Basically, you engage in an activity that for whatever reason, it gives you joy. There is a cost attached to obtaining your joy. That price is equal to what you ultimately lose. You might get the occasional wins to keep you going but your wins never catch up to your losses because it is designed not to. The difference between all wins and all losses is the fee you pay for the joy that you receive from the activity.


Now imagine the same game or similar being played in a really special casino. In this casino, they have come up with a new business model. They think limiting gamblers by setting rules leading them to certain loss isn't that necessary. The games are a bit chaotic, a bit more complex and have an element of reality life right through them. Because of that, people, the participants of the game, will easily lead themselves to loss. No need for restrictions. They will all eventually fall off the cliffs following each other. Part of that business model is for the participants supply all the money (All the deposits that go to the brokers accounts). Then the losers lose to winners and vise versa and people still get joy out of this game. For their joy, they are charged a fee. Spread and commission mainly. So, that way all people are happy and brokers are happy and the real life industry of money flow, can do whatever it was going to do anyway and that's the game that people are betting to play and take joy from it. It is Forex trading.

So, it would be like if the first casino, allowed you to design your own roulette machine. Make all the slots red and then bet on red. Then you should win all the time. Or all black. Better yet, you are allowed to bet on the color just as the ball starts falling into the slot. You can have all sorts of cheat sheets and you can count cards. You can have all sorts of sources to consult with about your next bet. Basically anything goes. Winners and losers just keep throwing money at each other all day and night long....and the brokers keep collecting fees they charge for facilitating for all that joy you're getting.

So, I think LDFX means (not actually speaking for him but guessing) that with all that advantage and flexibility given to you, you should be able to find a way to win. lie, cheat, steal, beg and borrow or whatever it takes and get yourself some winnings. If you don't, then you might as well be always following the rules of the first casino, inside the second casino. You will always lose then. It will be your fault for losing because you just aren't taking advantage of the abilities given to you. In the business world and in a free country, you probably can start a business and make anything out of it. I am guessing, that's approaching things like as if you are running a business in an environment that is so welcoming of businesses to grow. Virtually no restrictions in Forex about what to do to start a business. You are allowed to invest $1 and grow it to infinity. So, go ahead, start your business of winning or play the gambling ways of the first casino....or maybe that's not what he means.

DemoForever Feb 12, 2019 5:28am | Post# 176

Anybody interested in a good book on this very subject?

Fortunes Formula: The untold story of the scientific betting system that beat the Casinos and Wall Street. By William Poundstone.
This book has more useful information in it than most of the misleading so called trading books out there.

dispersion Feb 12, 2019 5:29am | Post# 177

Anybody interested in a good book on this very subject? Fortunes Formula: The untold story of the scientific betting system that beat the Casinos and Wall Street. By William Poundstone. This book has more useful information in it than most of the misleading so called trading books out there.
Yeah that's great book I learned a lot from it, basically it's all about psychological management and overcoming casino-mind approach to trading. De-focusing from profits if the key to gain edge over the market.

JimmieKip Feb 12, 2019 8:29am | Post# 178

What factors cause gambling? What factors cause not gambling?

TheFxAnalyst Feb 12, 2019 11:49am | Post# 179

{quote} Well, of course I do repeat with multiple different examples my opinion. Why wouldn’t I if it’s what I think ? Then it is up to the participants to convince me, so far none did, and about proof I did at least explained as well as I could my point of view, have you read all the thread ? Enlight me instead of attacking me because I do not agree with you dude. Quote : “You're unwilling to accept any point that contradicts what you hope is correct.” That is interesting, isn’t it a labsus from you ? I do not understand how would you think it’s...
Interesting you criticize a live account when all you have are demo's, many on MyFxBook that are completely blown up. You asked for enlightenment, I gave you some research to chase, you pivot off the argument and criticize something you apparently don't even do (trade real money). Hard to engage in logical conversations when people only live to argue. Not much more I can say or do at this point. I'll leave you to your beliefs, hopefully they work out for you when you actually start trading.

Hyperfire Feb 12, 2019 12:32pm | Post# 180

Greetings everyone,

Every of us have a reason for start trading and for sure some people do it just for gabling but out of normal scheme, what i mean is in a bet you have to made a choice
In trading everything is different, cause you can see and try to have a forecast in your mind and that's deepends from mindset attitude and so on, you know the story lol.
The problem is, most people think every of us are gambling, but they not know we menage the risk and with we i talk about those people who choose to do Trading for living.
Is totally different from gambling, because in Trading gambling mean open a chart and enter a buy or sell no matter the reason, you fell in that way so you do it. Or simply you are a bullish fan of euro so you matter all the time euro will push up up again again and over again

Study, reading the chart, learning indicator, timeframe, any kind of istrument put yourself in different point because now you try to understand to give a logic in what chart offer to us.

Every of us in a trading scenario lose money, that's can happend and try to understand what's goes wrong put every of us in a different way from gambling.

If you place a bet, and you lose what you could say ? I was unlucky that's all, you can't blame your soccer team cause they lose, you can't cause they do the best for win but the other team was better.
In the market of course, talking about luck that's can happend when our tp will not be hit for few pips, but you always have a chance to close it in green. Same when something goes wrong you can close it before goes really bad !
in a bet you can't go and play the game you bet on just for change the result or try to save yourself in a corner like we can do in our trading activity.

That's my point of view, hope everything was able to undertstand me with my current english level (lol), i know is not the best i always try to improve it and also thank you for this post, cause writing help me with it !

Regards.


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