I'm blessed because my family is not poor, but most people end up doing s**ty jobs even though they own a degree...
gambling is just bad overall
I'd say it all STARTS from gambling.. then I'd rather learn what works and act accordingly.
The backbone of LDFX's argument that FX trading is not gambling is "Positive Expectancy".
Here is an article that explains what positive expectancy is: https://www.stator-afm.com/tutorial/...ve-expectancy/
After reading it, I am convinced that the author is just an academic teaching a theory and has probably never traded a thing let alone FX.
Firstly, the particulars of a Roulette game are known and can be calculated almost as constants. Tell me, what is constant in FX? In sports, we have constants. For example, the goal posts always stay where they are supposed to be. In FX, the goal posts are moved by the nano second. From the time the ball leaves your kicking foot until it arrives at it's well calculated entrance to the open area of the goal, the entire goal box and it's goalie and which side you are trying to score can move several times. You often score in your own net. In Fx that is.
Positive expectancy formula, in my opinion, can not be applied to trading unless it is based on past performance. You decide how much to risk and in theory, based on your system's past performance or backtest or fundamentals or technicals or projections or whatever other ingredients you throw in, then you manufacture yourself some positive expectancy expectations. That means sh.t in FX.
How many positive expectancy accounts and systems were blown on Jan 02, 2019? That was a biggie and I understand a lot of traders weren't in the market because of the holidays and it didn't phase them but an event like that one and even many smaller ones everyday take a big dump in that nice theoretical formula. Yes, you could have had a .01 trade in the market and $1000 in the account and you would have survived but most of us don't trade that way because it's not worth it unless you are LDFX.
Conclusion: Trading FX is so freaking gambling that even gambling formulas fail to address how deep a gambling venture is this thing we call trading. The fact that some people think they can reign it in by strutting their chests and calling it a business and themselves businessmen is absurd. Their thinking that they can overcome this pure by the second uncertainty of it is quite laughable.
My advice, yah go knock yourselves out by thinking you are not gambling while you are so gambling. Or just see a shrink!
To beat a dead horse even more and to play the devil's advocate, I can see that if you had 1 million in your pocket and bet $1 on roulette at a time hoping to win $1 (I've never played roulette so I don't know the prizes), after 1 million tries, you will certainly come out a loser because that game isn't exactly 50/50 due to the one green slot.
If you had 1 million in your account and your TP was $1 and SL was $1 and after applying the same buy/sell decision to the same pair a million times, would you come out a winner or a loser at the end? Anyone has stats on that? It should be something close to 50/50 minus broker enrichment fees and swap which lets say is the green slot.
For some reason people seem to think the first person is a gambler and the second person is a businessman but both will be net losers.
I guess what the difference is that roulette is a set game and you can't do anything other that choose between 2 outcomes where as in trading, you don't just consistently do the exact same buy/sell of the same pair with TP/SL $1 to make the playing field equal to roulette game. Fx trading has more options to play it, more flexibility, more tricks and systems and plans that you can apply to it and therefore, if you are of the businessman mind, you should be able to come up with something and make money at the end.
That said, you are still gambling. A rose by any other name is still a rose. Gambling old fashioned style like in a casino or high class style like FX trading. No guarantees that the businessman will win at the end. Success is therefore a personal thing and based on personal decisions you make. If your personal decisions on betting on red/black is always accurate, yes, you will win at roulette too.
PS. In all fairness, Roulette isn't the proper game to compare FX trading with. Poker is more like it.
Yes the article you linked explains very well positive expectancy which you can have in trading and not in gambling.
But rest assured, if you have not a system with positive expectancy then you are gambling, so I agree in a way with you
Also January 02 I had only 0.6% more loss due to slippage, those who went bankrupt were gambling that is sure and should learn how to trade instead.
Also you forgot another « backbone «, I also said ;
»Gambling is an activity that is based upon chance or luck and has nothing to do with the skills of a person. »
Anyway the article of investopedia explains the difference very well, I do not understand why are we still debating ?
Sorry LDFX, you have to enlighten yourself on that since you are such a smart businessman. Us gamblers think differently and I am afraid as long as you are blind to certain facts or at least you don't open yourself up to possibilities of discovery, you won't ever find out.
that is lame, you said knowing better.
You can not blame me to defend my opinion, if you don’t want enlight me then you can even less blame me to not be convinced and agree with you.
Well, this thread is not about a "big reveal".
That is fair. I don't blame you. You only know what you know and what you don't know may not harm you but it won't benefit you either.
Although I asked you to enlight me.
I think it may have already been mentioned in other posts that "gambling" means different things to different people -- depending on your perspective. But I would like to play along and add my two cents.
On a scale of 1-10, I would say that roulette is a '10' in terms of gambling and Forex is a '6' or '7'. The difference, I believe, is whether or not there is such a thing as an "edge".
To a newbie trader Forex is probably pretty close to gambling. But to an experienced (and profitable) trader it is not gambling -- because they have an "edge" (i.e. a system). Exact same game -- for one person it is gambling and to another it is a way of making a living.
How can the same game (Forex) be both gambling to one person and not-gambling to another?
in roulette things are turn based,
and talking red-black option,
it is entirely possible that all players play red, get the exact same odds, and all win, and all win the same %gain on their bet.
not so in forex.
players are not bound by hard coded turn based structure, it is 'fluid turns'.
players get in on different places/prices by the nature of supply, even if play by the analogy of all red, say all buy, thus even if all sell same time they will have a different %gain.
in roulette settling the score end of turn doesnt change the %gain in the turn.(spin)
in forex settling the score is done by opposite action, that indeed change the %gain.
a reversal (toward mean) is a workable forex option, bcos the players will need to settle their account by opposite action. something that doesnt apply to roulette, or even poker.
without settling the account the "spin" isnt over, and there is only paper profit/loss.
There is always risks in each field.
so on a 1-10 scale if Blackjack is 9-10, where would you place lottery or slot machines?
on the other end of the spectrum, real estate is far from the safest, surely a lot of ppl has learnt that on the hard way, for example in 2008...
not to mention that 200$ wont start you with more than a dozen bricks, or a decent mailbox.
APPL shares had huge meltdown recently, and it isnt a biotech pharma penny stock...imagine that move with a leveraged position?
on the other hand, take any forex trade with zero leverage and your account likely last just as long as a share with zero leverage....1000$ equity 0.01lot...curbs the excitement, but the losses too.
there is no risk free "investment", even holding cash in hand has no warranty, see currently Venezuela, where lately shopkeepers weight the money cos too much hassle to count it.
in the end it is by large about timing and luck.
the positive side, one can get skilled on the timing to bend his probabilities to favor.
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