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-   -   Are We All Gambling? (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/876969-are-we-all-gambling)

zilo Jun 23, 2019 9:20am | Post# 241

I think we are partly gamblers

Treeny Jun 23, 2019 1:50pm | Post# 242

I think we are partly gamblers
....with an edge

RossEdwards Jun 24, 2019 8:04am | Post# 243

IOHO... Currency Trading for vast majority of retail traders is gambling.
And they will, like the majority of gamblers, .. loose. Industry/brokerage figures incontrovertibly confirm this.
This particular debate/discussion like many others on this same question, conflate the existence of the few participants (as in many gambling genres) that either through inside information, or a superior analytical/technical edge (Normally limited to institutional market participants) can beat the system and some will return profit over time. By definition these will be a minority. This is again confirmed by industry/brokerage figures.
Inevitably in discussion, these realities are challenged by those few successful retail voices, that are among that tiny winning minority, or the wannabees aspirants to that club.
Currency trading, like options/futures, unlike investment in equities or other asset classes is inherently NEGATIVE ZERO SUM.
Negative (?) because though in terms of Game Theory is Mathematically zero-sum... because of Transaction Cost becomes negative.
(TC is a major cumulative cost for STF retail traders, and typically a multiple of that for institutions).
Hence IOHO, it seems reasonable, for the general public to risk money on a hobby basis, in a system that is inherently negative Zero-Sum to be reasonably described as gambling.
Just a Thought.

Infassen Jun 24, 2019 1:51pm | Post# 244

I would say that yes, all that EA's, strategies and things like signals, like some fundamental analysis or technical analysis and so on really do not make anything in the long run which couldn't be done by simple gamble here and there, I am completely YES on that poll and polls which are similar to that. Some good advices with an offline business really take part in all this, people really will need to take care about. Cause it's really a huge risk even more than with forex for example where you can simply stop trading.

HeyYou Jun 24, 2019 2:59pm | Post# 245

gambling is a game of probabilities/LUCK...nothing else!!!!!

https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-d...g-and-gambling

HeyYou Jun 24, 2019 3:44pm | Post# 246

If you see trading as gambling you can easily lose money. gambling leads to wishful thinking.

since I started seeing it as a business / a game of skill... I'm trading well and I'm not losing

pridolfx Jun 24, 2019 3:46pm | Post# 247

If you see trading as gambling you can easily lose lots of money. gambling leads to wishful thinking. since I started seeing it as a business / a game of skill... I'm trading well and I'm not losing leverage restriction helped to get rid of the gambler inside me
after 15 years i folow forex,its sadly realy became all gambling bet on red or bed on black that is!!! fuck the indicators,news and patterns..bull shit
forex=roulette

HeyYou Jun 24, 2019 4:15pm | Post# 248

{quote} after 15 years i folow forex,its sadly realy became all gambling bet on red or bed on black that is!!! fuck the indicators,news and patterns..bull shit forex=roulette
this trading thing is tough for everyone!

somehow I maneged to keep "sane" and well I'm not complaining... I love it win or lose don't ask me why... maybe because I still have a job and yesterday I made 1k euro in 2 hours (with my job)

X77 Jun 24, 2019 4:22pm | Post# 249

Looking to take a poll of the traders on here. What does gambling mean to you and are we as traders doing it? Does betting on anything probabilistic equate to gambling? Is it only gambling if you have a negative expectancy like playing roulette? If so, is the counter-part to your bet (the casino) not gambling? The dictionary definition of gambling is: 1. the activity or practice of playing at a game of chance for money or other stakes. Do you agree with this?
I have the best advise a real trader can give you, everyone here is telling you all kind of stuff but reality is this
WAY OF THE TURTLE
and if you don't understand that areal advice from me is GO AHEAD and save you time and quit now before you loose it all
That kind of question no real trader will ever ask
I said a gain
WAY OF THE TURTLE

Mitiblotch Jun 24, 2019 4:35pm | Post# 250

{quote} after 15 years i folow forex,its sadly realy became all gambling bet on red or bed on black that is!!! fuck the indicators,news and patterns..bull shit forex=roulette
Indeed, trading shouldn't be gambling at all. However, I must note that the institutions that move price these days almost do not respect structure. Spikes happen in a deliberate fashion to take out stop losses. It seems price is more attracted to stop losses than to anything else. It just means that we are trading against machines that have been created to eat traders for breakfast..

auricforecas Jun 24, 2019 4:41pm | Post# 251

{quote} this trading thing is tough for everyone! somehow I maneged to keep "sane" and well I'm not complaining... I love it win or lose don't ask me why... maybe because I still have a job and yesterday I made 1k euro in 2 hours (with my job)
Nice, need some help? That's the money I'm talking about.

Regarding the topic... Sure, there is a massive gambling parameter/component on every trade... although some things/rules do work some of the time (so chaotic market, not random)... All (relevant/thematic) movies are honest about it, search for some of my previous posts about movies... I think I covered pretty much all of them... See here and here. One example below (more on mentioned links):

Rogue Trader (1999) - MOVIE..
"Thats all the market is, one giant casino."
PS: And this movie is TRUE STORY, real person... wiki it up...

Also can you imagine how much would you make if you had a PREVIEW of what "someone" will TWEET?
ONE TWEET and market responds instantly... You could make money like this right

The big players (Billions series emphasise this good) are trying to present some "INFO" as RESEARCH... That is the name of the game for ... you decide what %...

dream2017 Jun 24, 2019 5:11pm | Post# 252

For my opinion, is it not important that we are gamble or not.

As long as we can earn money, who care we are gamble or not.

In my personal life, everything is like gamble. Only to choose yes or not / go or no go. Example like when i get a new job, i need to choose yes or not to join the company. The result might different. It could be good or bad. But the important is i should not to regret and focus what is my goal. Keep improving and dun give up after decision make. I believe we all can success with no give up attitude.

Just my opinion.

Jewell59 Jun 24, 2019 5:18pm | Post# 253

You could say the same about life in general. You take a car, you gamble your life and kids lives. You go to the mall you worry about terror. You gamble every day. Forex brings the "BEAST" out of us so to speak because it unleashes what we chased and ran from throughout human history. That is running or fighting threat (losing trades) and Hunting gathering, building your empire. (Winning trades).

If you can tame this you will be something most will never experience in their lifetime and potentially your families lifetime if they take it on. I'd say.. it can be gambling if you are just putting your money in the market without trying to learn why, how, when it moves. Yet, if you know these and pay attention to stop loss, roll overs, news releases, you can be profitable. Most will not achieve this. Just as I think most of our human ancestors in the past struggled and died young because they could not stay net positive in life. They needed learning experiences to hand down and so on to make humanity what it is today.

HeyYou Jun 24, 2019 5:21pm | Post# 254

{quote} Indeed, trading shouldn't be gambling at all. However, I must note that the institutions that move price these days almost do not respect structure. Spikes happen in a deliberate fashion to take out stop losses. It seems price is more attracted to stop losses than to anything else. It just means that we are trading against machines that have been created to eat traders for breakfast..
honestly, I don't know what to think.

if these markets become too competitive no probs.. just "invest wha tyou can afford to lose".

eyeball Jun 24, 2019 6:31pm | Post# 255

Gambling is a game in which outcomes are random or irrational. What has preceded the event,whether it be cast of the dice or the spinning of the roulette wheel have no bearing on the outcome of the event itself. Contrarily what has preceded a forex event whether it be a news event or some type of chart configuration (a set-up, algorithm, ect. ) does have a bearing on the outcome of the event. In understanding the nature of those preceding events lies the skill in forex forecasting. For those who cannot interpret such preceding events outcomes are random and therefore a gamble.For those who can interpret them It is a skill and therefore not a gamble. Judging by results from recently published stats from Saxo Bank 71% of their day traders were losers,indicating to me that at least 71% of their traders were gamblers, the balance being skill traders. Good luck, we all need it.

blueruby Jun 24, 2019 6:55pm | Post# 256

The definition at the beginning of the thread is certainly interesting - to play a game for money. OK, we're all gambling, but that's not how I define gambling.

I go with the definition of betting on something with a random outcome - roulette, dice, etc.

So, is a professional poker player gambling? Hell no. The pro has worked very, very hard, studied probabilities AND knows how to read people, and has found an edge that keeps him or her winning more than losing. That's not gambling, in my opinion, because he knows over time, he will win.

I know when I'm gambling. When I really, really want the trade to go my direction, and it goes the other way, and I have the urge to put on another trade twice as big, and when it goes my way I'll feel like a hero, and at that moment I'm willing to lose a chunk because I'm so sure and want it so badly - THAT's GAMBLING. And I don't do it.

If you use proper risk management, risk no more than 2% per trade, ever, and a 1:2 or better risk:reward, and stick to only that, you should make money.

mc2010 Jun 24, 2019 9:54pm | Post# 257

I would say that yes, this is in fact gambling.

Gambling (for me) is risking our money at something that is, by majority, a random outcome event.

TA charting, while playing to common scenarios, squarely fits into this category for the super-majority. Only those truly tied to their system, with internal coping mechanisms to avoid chasing and "feeling" something outside of their rules would be who I would call non-gambling traders.

I couldn't put a number to it, but i would certainly estimate that >90% of the posters here truly are gamblers. I would say however, that most of that 90% aren't the roulette or craps gambler type though. The activity here requires far more analysis and thought.

Mr.Ed Jun 25, 2019 12:01am | Post# 258

It's in our nature to do whatever it takes to avoid pain. If you use proper risk management and trade management you will avoid gambling and trade the-your edge.


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