the trades that have gone 2:1 and stop out are not painful.........its the 4 and 5 to 1's that get stopped out if you are trailing with a big number (say a 40 period MA) that get a little annoying from time to time
Having a positive EV makes you profitable
James......I beat you........im up for 1 am EST
I am a total zombie.................
most people fail to realize the power of a system with even the the smallest of edges
I have one system - not DIBS, that has an edge that ranges from .95 to about 2.3 per trailing 100 trades(I evaluate my edge over groups of 100 sequential trades). Since I started, the system itself has an edge of about 1.83 and about a 35% win rate
Even an edge/profit factor of 1.1 resulted in a 13% gain of over the course of 100 trades from Sept 9 to yesterday - 2 months. IF you want to be simple, multiply that by 6 to get an annual return (I know, you cant really make that assumption, but it more of a demonstration) of about 78% and all that edge means is that for every 100 of price action I take, i make 110 of profit........
the point of this post is to say that if you are comfortable with DIB's edge - and its magnitude has been alluded too before.......stop worrying about losses. If you want a suggestion of how you can "filter out" some lower probablity trades, think about this. Say for example you are going to use a 20 MA for a trailing stop and you get a proper entry signal, down day, short dibs set up, but it is above the MA, how could you possibly use the MA as a trailing stop when its already telling you not to get in the market........I use that rule for my other system and it keeps me out of way more bad trades than good
You definitely caught the spirit of DIBS---
Thanks for the kind words about my posts - I'll tell TheRealThing later today when I call him (after the NFP action finally slows down).
Your results obviously show the benefits of being willling to hold onto winners and put up with multiple losers, over and over again.
In the for-what-its-worth department:
You really do get past the pain of losses at some point. When you finally realize that the losses are necessary discouragement to the individuals/institutions on the other side of our trades who haven't realized (or could care less about) the power of the "long tail".
It simply becomes a matter of immediately saying (internally) after a loss, "next...."
It's too bad that I don't get much chance to review this thread and only get to from time to time. You guys have done very well in making it possible for newer traders to see on the other side of the curtain.
(I called TRT a few minutes ago about how large the DIBS thread has gotten. He told me that it is the perfect case of "less is more", as in a few short posts inspiring some of the best traders reading it to excel. In my view, the DIBS concept gets all the credit. Simple maybe- but psychologically difficult to implement; just the way optimal trading really is.)
Thanks again to you and all the others who contribute to this great thread.
My personal thanks for the helping me develop my trading around the ideals of this thread.
MT4 Indicator Question
Iíve been having a chat privately with another member today and one thing that is useful would be a trend gradient indicator.
Iím no programmer so does anyone know how to program an oscillating indicator that shows dy/dx (i.e the gradient) of the line, be it EMA or SMA or whatever? It would need to be able to be user-configurable to set the size of the MA.
Anyone able to help?
Momentum is the gradient of price, I don't think you can apply it to a MA.
That said, Razor has a point, using momentum is the same as using price, just with more noise. Applying it to an MA just introduces lag. So you have a noisy, lagging indicator.
I think PM might be eludng to this being of use for determining the direction in which to take the break, or at least aid in that decission.
Any price derived indicator like MACD will tell you that.
I'm not sure it will improve DIBs but tell us how you get on.
The thing I don't like about DIBS
Here's an example of a profitable DIBs from Thursday on EUR. If you'd taken this you could have made 100 pips on approx 30 pip risk. This was a particularly nice DIB because its forms in a downtrend off 1.50 and on the M5 chart you can see the consistent pattern of lower highs.
However look at the M5 chart. Each hour on the M5 chart is a different colour. There are 2 things to notice. The low on the H1 DIB does not correspond to a swing low on the M5 chart. The real break-out level is 2 pips lower. Secondly if the hour had began 5 mins later the preceding H1 bar would not have enclosed the DIB i.e. you would not have had an inside bar.
My point is that highs and lows on an H1 bar don't always correspond to any meaningful price high/low. It also means that DIB set-ups are somewhat random. Some price patterns will miss being a DIB just because of where the H1 bar opens/closes.
I like DIBs as a technique. But I think that it is a subset of the more general idea of a break-out from a low volatility coil.
too BAD Peter didn't told us ALL secrets, take a look on g/u now on 1 hour and 15 min charts! what do YOU think?
G/U - looks a valid DIB for a long break-out.
I don't like it because the break-out is 1.6690 and Wednesdays lows are 1.6710 which is the first obvious resistance. But just my opinion.
ps good post jzw i said i wouldn't post here again but just could stop myself lol if you've not already read about infinite yield theory (im sure you have it's more for anyone else reading) then you should google it.
pps, as far as entries go i apply the concepts to all my trading
From the first start of my forex trading i started with teb63 concept tor trade on multiple timeframes. I like'd it BUT all the indy's repainted! i blew my account!!! but education cost money, right?
so now i'm with DIBS method, last month was great! 200 +pips, but anyway, somehow i'm at b/e. so starting from this week i'm trading only un 1 hour timeframe waiting for inside bar, when it happens i switch to 15 min AND wait for another inside bar. So far so good. i will inform you about this concept.
good luck jzw!
edit: i took that trade on g/u got my 12 pips, i exit on 1;1 ratio
There have been in the past an number of messages regarding hidden meanings, or missed information, secrets not told about the method from the man PC. My take on the situation is that having spent years trading and doing things the hard way, loosing money and doing what he needed to do to get his edges, it is just nice that he gave up a little piece of the pie.
Most of the people who read this thread do not have the dedication to go out of there way to make something happen for themselves, in fact that would go for the vast majority that visit any thread. The signs are all the same, you want the secrets, the formulas and everything else wrapped in a neat little box so that you can make millions. Heres the thing, even if they were wrapped in a neat little box you would still loose because you lack some fundamental components that cannot be given to you. 2 of those would be at the least dedication and discipline. Without them you could have all the ingredients and still not bake the profits.
Too many just come by and think things should be given, without effort and in alot of cases without any manners. I see alot of post, can you give me this and that. I also have been seeing more and more post, not primarily this thread but it has happened time and time again, in respect to questions that have been answered umpteen times. These questions get asked because the person asking doesnt have the dedication or discipline to respect the information given, for free, and go back and read the thread. In most cases (generally all depending on the length of the thread) the question being asked by the lazy, quick to get rich, person (i wouldnt label you a trader) has more or less been answered a few times because someone was kind enough to help out a past lazy individual (unless the question was unique in which case that doesnt apply).
PC dropped by the other day and apart from Nicola (elitejets) and I, it seem nobody actually noticed. Im not sure if that is because my measure of a person who gave so much time early in the picture, to divulge and help with some pretty simple steps to trading a particular setup that can over the period of time prove to be very profitable. He and Joel, to me, are very import for helping me make a fundamental shift and for that a simple thanks, which I made for myself and most loyal followers, was the least I could do.
Sphinx I am not going to read to much into your comment about PC and how BAD it is that he didnt divulge all his secrets, I am sure it was harmless and like I say, I am probably putting to much into this because of my thoughts above. I believe PC gave everyone more than enough information for them to go out, tackle the situation and learn from it themselves. The truth is that everyone will trade these differently and in the end if you feel you need to add some complications to the formula with the use of indicators and filters in order for you to feel comfortable then by all means do so. It is about some trial and error, learning from the mistakes just the same as all full time, profession traders have too. Its a dog eat dog environment and only the ones that are prepared for the long journey will survive. Failure to incorporate some basic discilpine and dedication, to learn from trading live (or demo) and furthering your knowledge base (through both active reading and trading) will usually see you struggle for consistancy.
I hope you all had a good weekend, the above is not to put people offside, just merely the thoughts of someone who found added respect from someone who recently came back, someone who was here to start and in his spare time still keeps a small eye on this thread.
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