|Nvrmd ||Feb 20, 2020 1:35pm | Post# 49095 |
There will be a big drop in gold and the us dollar this year. I can almost guarantee it and I know many professional traders that expect the same. Market structure and technical analysis are clearly showing that. Before that can happen though we need certainty in the markt. Both right now are counting as primary safe heavens and drive the market even at extreme levels but at some point both will drop, even at the same time. If the dollar for example is by far the strongest currency over a longer period and every other currency drops, then the fed will have to intervene and weaken the dollar, that`s why I expect multiple rate cuts this year.
As a side note, I have a friend that uses cot data and seasonal trends for his trading and he told me that commercials started to increase their short orders on gold for the past few weeks but it takes time for them to gain control of market direction. At the same time seasonality shows that gold tends to drop end of february and march and he thinks that next wednesday/thursday could be the turning point. I don´t know how likely that is and for the most part I would just wait for virus concerns to resolve but at the same time, if corona enhances to a global epidemic, expect gold to hit the moon and stocks to crash.