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-   -   Short Term Dow Jones 30 / DJIA 30 Trading Only (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=811021)

Pipologist Aug 22, 2018 8:28am | Post# 1

Short Term Dow Jones 30 / DJIA 30 Trading Only
 
Anyone interested in discussing DJ30 particularly scalping intra-day and swing trading 2 to 3 days trading?

DJ INDEX CFD and/or DJ FUTURES traders welcome!

Looking to discuss scalps and intra day trades. Also open to discussing various methodology thoughts/ideas on analyzing the DJ30 market for short term trading.

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I'm currently trading the DJ30 index CFD (not futures) through a retail FX broker on the MT4 platform.

Average spread is 5 pips (4.5 pips).
1 DJ30 point equals $1 U.S. Dollar per 1.00 contract lot, for example a move from 25,750 to 25,751.

A long time ago I used to sporadically trade the D30 index and futures and am now returning to it (live forward trading/testing it). The CFD tracks very well on even a one minute chart and with the high index price there is very good daily range and volatility.

The mass media is starting to get a little frothy on the bullishness of the market so I'm expecting a big 2000 point plus retracement to the downside (which is still less than a 8 percent move down) in the near future.

However, for the short term day by day now, until the big bad political/financial/global event hammer falls I'm thinking at this moment that the market may attempt to creep up to test and possibly exceed the recent highs...it all depends on how investors absorb the political surprises that seem to be getting more intense. Yesterday's late price action was interesting, the news spooked some folks out but also there was some profit taking at the highs as well.

I don't have Level 2 quotes and pricing so I don't know the bid/offers and size on the component stocks. So in a way I am trading blind but will see how this plays out. Of course, following a few key components such as AAPL and KO etc.

First question for any takers... I want to see a ratio of DJIC vs DJIA and be able to track it in real time or at least eval it to see if there is any edge in tracking it.

Is anyone aware of any sites that has this figure OR has anyone ever tried tracking it?

For example, DJI Composite at yesterday's NY close at around 8722 and the DJIA at around 25822 would be 8722/25822 which would be 0.33777.

I want to see this ratio in real time and see if there is an edge in tracking it. Any ideas without getting a 3rd party live 24 hour index data feed and API?

I know there are other ratios like NAS vs DOW and DOW VS. GOLD. Anyone track these as well?

General comments?

Pipologist Aug 22, 2018 9:01am | Post# 2

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25750 seems to be the battleground right now for the bulls.

Looking at the chart at the moment signals are delicately long but we breach 25650 and it could be asta la vista baby for the longs.

Yesterday's quick 150 point move down could have been the canary in the coal mine so to speak. Will see if she is still whistling or if she's running out of air. In the mean time short a few now.

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Pipologist Aug 22, 2018 12:33pm | Post# 3

Bulls having a hard time pushing price keeping dow above 25800 today, bears trying to push it down below 750.

Buyers may have dried up.

Starting to get successive intraday sell alerts on some component stocks.

If market definitively breaches 750, I'm looking for a 1000 point drop to 24750 to happen inside 10 trading days.

Holding a short position.

tomase Aug 22, 2018 1:30pm | Post# 4

Yesterdays pin bar on the Dow could signal a powerful move down - and it's formed right at the 76.4 fib retracement from the 3550 pip move down at the end of Jan and beginning of Feb this year. Also the move down yesterday has retraced to the 76.4 fib at 25838 today and it looks as though that has turned price action south again. Anyway I'm short at 25838 and 25821 - time will tell.

Pipologist Aug 22, 2018 1:44pm | Post# 5

Yesterdays pin bar on the Dow could signal a powerful move down - and it's formed right at the 76.4 fib retracement from the 3550 pip move down at the end of Jan and beginning of Feb this year. Also the move down yesterday has retraced to the 76.4 fib at 25838 today and it looks as though that has turned price action south again. Anyway I'm short at 25838 and 25821 - time will tell.
You're trading the CBOT futures is that correct?

Pipologist Aug 22, 2018 1:48pm | Post# 6

Looks like NAS100 might be starting to take a hit which would confirm traders may be getting out till things look more certain.

tomase Aug 22, 2018 1:52pm | Post# 7

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{quote} You're trading the CBOT futures is that correct?
No I'm trading the cash/spot DJ30
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Pipologist Aug 27, 2018 8:33am | Post# 8

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25750 seems to be the battleground right now for the bulls. Looking at the chart at the moment signals are delicately long but we breach 25650 and it could be asta la vista baby for the longs. Yesterday's quick 150 point move down could have been the canary in the coal mine so to speak. Will see if she is still whistling or if she's running out of air. In the mean time short a few now. {image}
Looks like market is done with down moves for the time being. Market has decided to power up over the 25750 area on Friday and is on the way to posting higher highs.

There is noticeable upward movement in gold the last trading day and a half, over 20 dollars so continued upward moves there could coincide with another leg down in stocks.

Of course these are all just personal opinions and observations...Trade at your own risk accordingly.
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Pipologist Aug 30, 2018 1:15am | Post# 9

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In my opinion market may test another move down. If so, 26000 will be the key area to watch.
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cyguy Oct 5, 2018 3:58pm | Post# 10

hey man I had a question about the futures market. Can you hedge orders in a sense that you have a buy and a sell at the same time?

thanks

yg10 Oct 5, 2018 8:22pm | Post# 11

hey man I had a question about the futures market. Can you hedge orders in a sense that you have a buy and a sell at the same time? thanks
You cannot be simultaneously long and short on the same contract in futures. For hedging one can use either calendar spread by buying and selling contracts with different expiration dates, say long March contract and short June contract for the same instrument. Or use intermarket spread, e. g. long Dow and short SP500.

cyguy Oct 5, 2018 10:27pm | Post# 12

would a march contract be the same price as the june contract, or would their be a difference due to time?

chucksman Oct 6, 2018 4:37pm | Post# 13

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yg10 Oct 6, 2018 10:49pm | Post# 14

would a march contract be the same price as the june contract, or would their be a difference due to time?
Price of futures contract is determined by market and spot price. Usually contracts with later expiration are more expensive.
Excuse me, but why don't you read about some basics of futures trading instead of asking questions in forex forum.

cyguy Oct 7, 2018 2:25am | Post# 15

{quote} Price of futures contract is determined by market and spot price. Usually contracts with later expiration are more expensive. Excuse me, but why don't you read about some basics of futures trading instead of asking questions in forex forum.
didn't mean to upset you, all the information I read on futures just says what it is, i.e. soy bean farmer joe wants to stablize prices of his soy beans through buying soy bean future contracts. Guess I'll buy a book. Thanks for the info though

yg10 Oct 7, 2018 3:18am | Post# 16

{quote} didn't mean to upset you, all the information I read on futures just says what it is, i.e. soy bean farmer joe wants to stablize prices of his soy beans through buying soy bean future contracts. Guess I'll buy a book. Thanks for the info though
You absolutely did not upset me.
I meant that you will not get much info here. Not many people on FF trade futures.
You can check Investopedia articles on futures trading, CME site has some useful information. Also you can open a demo account at some futures broker. There quite a few things that make futures trading different.

RisingSun May 12, 2019 4:49pm | Post# 17

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London close (LC) is often a good time to trade reversals. I watch m5 and trade on m1.
RS
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RisingSun May 12, 2019 4:50pm | Post# 18

How are your trading going Pipologist?
RS

RisingSun May 13, 2019 3:19am | Post# 19

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RisingSun May 14, 2019 12:34pm | Post# 20

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London Close, typically a reversal point of the day.
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