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-   -   Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others) (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/802824-exotics-usdtry-usdzar-usdmxn-and-others)

blackwinter Aug 5, 2018 6:23am | Post# 21

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Ok lets look at usdtry..our lovely pair.. First, i added longterm charts with MAs to understand main trend..later i will share similar charts with clear candlesticks.. Monthly, weekly looks quite bullish well above 50, 100 and 200 MAs.. Daily looks also quite bullish supported with 50 MAs below so far.. 4h and 1h charts are also bullish.. So we can say safely that main trend is bullish..of course there will be some retracements..but i expect retracements will be limited considering political and economical problems.. Note: Turquoise line is 50 MAs...
Ok..now charts with candlesticks..

Monthly and weekly quite bullish..
Daily quite bullish, maybe small retracement to 5.00 (now 5.07), i dont prefer or suggest selling here..better buy retracements..there is more upside risk without retracement..
4h and 1h looks in consolidation mode..1h 50 Ma at ard. 5.05 and 1h 100 MA at ard. 4.99-5.00 can be visited in case of retracement..i dont expect to remain under 5.00 from now on..i think, above 5.00 is new normal for usdtry..and there is siginificant upside risk despite overstreched prices, because of Central Bank's inflation policy/interest rate decisions and political problems..

5.20..5.30..5.50..might be seen in following weeks and months if serious changes doesnt happen in economic and other policies..
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2dollardog Aug 5, 2018 6:53am | Post# 22

Good afternoon, Blackwinter I see you're on top of things as usual !

My greed blind-sided me. I suppose Iran would not want traders shorting the Rial and making things worse. lol Based on what you've posted, they're having a rough go of it.

Fabulous charts. I look forward to a green week ahead.

blackwinter Aug 5, 2018 6:57am | Post# 23

{quote} Ok..now charts with candlesticks.. Monthly and weekly quite bullish.. Daily quite bullish, maybe small retracement to 5.00 (now 5.07), i dont prefer or suggest selling here..better buy retracements..there is more upside risk without retracement.. 4h and 1h looks in consolidation mode..1h 50 Ma at ard. 5.05 and 1h 100 MA at ard. 4.99-5.00 can be visited in case of retracement..i dont expect to remain under 5.00 from now on..i think, above 5.00 is new normal for usdtry..and there is siginificant upside risk despite overstreched prices, because...
Not good for Lira..it seems Singapore meetings of FMs last friday didnt help much to solve issue..

"..freeze assets of two US ministers as retaliation to sanctions.."

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...erdogan-135419

"..Orders Retaliatory Sanctions.."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/w...ctions-us.html

blackwinter Aug 5, 2018 7:04am | Post# 24

Good afternoon, Blackwinter I see you're on top of things as usual ! My greed blind-sided me. I suppose Iran would not want traders shorting the Rial and making things worse. lol Based on what you've posted, they're having a rough go of it. Fabulous charts. I look forward to a green week ahead.
Good afternoon mate!!
Thanks..keeping thread up

Actually Rial is bad example for Lira..i am afraid that officials may pursue Iran experience if things deteriorate rapidly for lira..i hope they dont follow that example of fixing rate since it only makes things worse..

MariaEduard Aug 5, 2018 10:13am | Post# 25

Hello everyone, I am opening here the thread of EXOTICS.. I am currently trading some exotics such as UsdTry, UsdZar.. and I will share my opinions and charts here about them and other exotics from time to time.. Everybody is welcome here to share his/her opinions regarding any exotic pairs.. Comments on UsdTry, UsdZar, UsdMxn, UsdCnh, UsdPln, UsdCzk, UsdHuf, UsdSek, UsdNok, UsdDkk, UsdBrl, UsdRub, UsdSgd, UsdThb, UsdInr, UsdILS, UsdKrw and other exotics are welcome.. Sharing local news which might affect currencies will be very appreciated.. Abusive...
Well, interesting plan! But, do you use only exotic or you have an additional plan on the major pairs?

blackwinter Aug 5, 2018 10:34am | Post# 26

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Ok let's look at UsdZar now..firstly, I should say that I m new in UsdZar trading..any constructive contribution from Rand familiar people would be wonderful..

Monthly chart is not clear as much as UsdTry..it is just above 50 MAs at around 13.10..it seems, there was a clear uptrend from ard.6.50 to ard.17.50 between 2010 and 2016..then, downtrend has been started from 17.50 (seen 11.50 a few months ago)..it seems it is still continuing but might be broken soon since uptrend after April 2108 with the strength of Usd index may cause higher prices after some correction which we have witnessed last month..so, I don't have directional bias in monthly yet..we should follow USD index closely..

Weekly chart implies that we are in a downtrend from the beginning of 2016..but recent up surge from April 2018 is threatening this downtrend..price is just above 100,200 MAs, it may go down below MAs soon if USD index continue ranging as in last week's.. but those MAs may be good support in case of less risk appetite in the world and stronger USD index..I don't have directional bias in weekly also..

Daily looks also a bit mixed..it seems we are in a downtrend within uptrend now we are above MAs..and very close to 50 MA..
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blackwinter Aug 5, 2018 10:42am | Post# 27

{quote} Well, interesting plan! But, do you use only exotic or you have an additional plan on the major pairs?
I focus more on UsdTry and UsdZar recently..I have earned more in these pairs than majors and crosses in last months..I also observing and trading majors when I see opportunity there..I used to trade gbpjpy and gold in the past but not enjoying them much nowadays..

blackwinter Aug 5, 2018 10:53am | Post# 28

5 Attachment(s)
Ok let's look at UsdZar now..firstly, I should say that I m new in UsdZar trading..any constructive contribution from Rand familiar people would be wonderful.. Monthly chart is not clear as much as UsdTry..it is just above 50 MAs at around 13.10..it seems, there was a clear uptrend from ard.6.50 to ard.17.50 between 2010 and 2016..then, downtrend has been started from 17.50 (seen 11.50 a few months ago)..it seems it is still continuing but might be broken soon since uptrend after April 2108 with the strength of Usd index may cause higher prices...
Ok now charts with candlesticks..

Monthly, weekly and daily charts are just above their respective MAs..looks mixed/bearish to me..

4h and 1h candles are dancing between MAs..

I m watching USD index carefully..I plan to sell highs at usdzar depending on price action and USD index..

Note:
Turquoise line is 50 MAs (moving average)
Orange line is 100 MAs
Green line is 200 MAs
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blackwinter Aug 5, 2018 11:03am | Post# 29

This is ongoing issue which may affect UsdZar.. last week news about it has caused up surge in pair..

"South Africa’s business-friendly president alarms investors with land grab proposal"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/03/sout...ith-land-.html

2dollardog Aug 5, 2018 4:13pm | Post# 30

USDZAR;
I hope to begin getting some screen time in with UsdZar this week while sitting on my hand. I keep back testing and have a viable trade setup plan, but I need to see how it breathes in correlation for my entry points. I think its spread is severe with this broker. I will be doing a blind forward testing on demo with mathematical backing beginning with the first signal.

A blind short or buy from the 50ma provides very good risk/reward potential with managed emotions. This is not my actual trade setup but indicative of lucrative moves for this pair. I can see why anyone would be interested in this pair.

USDTRY;
This week will be more of a focus on converting from scalping to intraday trading from daily highs and lows. My goal is toward more systematic trading, less emotions and greater profits. I have great entries and pick high probability setups. I'm not emotionally mature with regard to drawdowns. I'm leaning into accepting them so I can make more (on the very same trade setup!). ha

EDIT: UsdZar blind testing using 50ma was on the 1hr chart

2dollardog Aug 5, 2018 4:21pm | Post# 31

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blackwinter Aug 6, 2018 3:39am | Post# 32

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I sold UsdZar at 13.36(1/5 leverage)..i see some weakness in hourly of usd index and usdzar..see how..a bit early though..
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blackwinter Aug 6, 2018 3:46am | Post# 33

Btw I just got "orange flag"..many many thanks to my subsbcribers

2dollardog Aug 6, 2018 5:40am | Post# 34

I slept in this morning. Unusual duo in the headlines this morning;

SA Ducks Turkey's Currency Fallout

blackwinter Aug 6, 2018 6:06am | Post# 35

I slept in this morning. Unusual duo in the headlines this morning; SA Ducks Turkey's Currency Fallout
Good reading..it seems Lira's fall has affected a bit UsdZar also this morning..but expect that it will be transitory..see how..

I was very bullish in usdtry..but couldn't enter at last night since having headache and slept..and wouldn't want to from 5.11 in morning..it is ard. 5.18 now..

blackwinter Aug 6, 2018 6:59am | Post# 36

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USD index is just around weekly 100 and 200 MAs..see what will happen.
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2dollardog Aug 6, 2018 7:02am | Post# 37

Very High Risk right now. USDTRY is at a high of the day BUT there's nothing stopping the bullish DXY.

Great risk: TRUMP TWEET

blackwinter Aug 6, 2018 7:10am | Post# 38

Very High Risk right now. USDTRY is at a high of the day BUT there's nothing stopping the bullish DXY. Great risk: TRUMP TWEET
I would like to have one anti-strongdollar tweet by Trump right now..I m stuck in UsdZar short

Edit: closed my short with loss..it may further go up

2dollardog Aug 6, 2018 7:19am | Post# 39

{quote} I would like to have one anti-strongdollar tweet by Trump right now..I m stuck in UsdZar short

I think you might have luck at break even or near breakeven since the 4h candle is fighting the 200ma. The dollar is still trying to continue its bullish rampage.

2dollardog Aug 6, 2018 9:12am | Post# 40

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