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-   -   Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others) (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/802824-exotics-usdtry-usdzar-usdmxn-and-others)

ElParcero Aug 15, 2019 5:48pm | Post# 2221

{quote} problem you have with buy swaps if you get a sideways movement for a week mate i would believe your account would look like shit , and if it spiked down which does happen with exotics you get killed both ways , in my opinion a buy swap is a day trade get in and out , now a sell swap is the longer term trade if you get it at a high price and now its in the nearly in the range you can hold because the swap keeps adding to your account , now with this being said i would be interested in your opinion on how much negative swaps would take to...
Mate.. you're clueless. I might actually give up even posting here given the level of insight displayed. I won't even bother arguing. Time will do my arguing. I dare you to short USDZAR and hold.

Aussi Aug 15, 2019 7:48pm | Post# 2222

{quote} Mate.. you're clueless. I might actually give up even posting here given the level of insight displayed. I won't even bother arguing. Time will do my arguing. I dare you to short USDZAR and hold.
yes it seems any one that points out the bad things of trading systems is being naughty , seems you are set in your ways please do not post here if you feel like a idiot , has zar as fallen last night where are you making money more negative swaps have been added and please do not make me smile at you , please feel free to keep them to yourself please look above and see the short i asked for your opinion but you came armed with excuses i am sure most trader will look at your post and shake there heads ,

Aussi Aug 15, 2019 7:54pm | Post# 2223

{quote} Mate.. you're clueless. I might actually give up even posting here given the level of insight displayed. I won't even bother arguing. Time will do my arguing. I dare you to short USDZAR and hold.
i have posted this on my trading thread for a laugh i see the funny side

ElParcero Aug 15, 2019 8:55pm | Post# 2224

{quote} yes it seems any one that points out the bad things of trading systems is being naughty , seems you are set in your ways please do not post here if you feel like a idiot , has zar as fallen last night where are you making money more negative swaps have been added and please do not make me smile at you , please feel free to keep them to yourself please look above and see the short i asked for your opinion but you came armed with excuses i am sure most trader will look at your post and shake...
Painfully low IQ. I recommend spending the money you lose in FX on a good English course. Might help you find a job to help pay for your Forex habit lol. C u in a month.

Aussi Aug 15, 2019 8:58pm | Post# 2225

{quote} Painfully low IQ. I recommend spending the money you lose in FX on a good English course. Might help you find a job to help pay for your Forex habit lol. C u in a month.
orrr dont get mad go look at the thread i sent you by mail

Aussi Aug 15, 2019 9:04pm | Post# 2226

{quote} Painfully low IQ. I recommend spending the money you lose in FX on a good English course. Might help you find a job to help pay for your Forex habit lol. C u in a month.
https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...4#post12445094

Aussi Aug 15, 2019 9:25pm | Post# 2227

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when you trade exotics you have to beware of the risk involved in buys on it Click to Enlarge

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now if you had bought at the bottom at the end up side i can see profit less swaps and i am sure you can make a few dollars i have no problem with that trade risky being a exotic , but better trading would have seen you travel both ways

GPips Aug 16, 2019 12:12am | Post# 2228

{quote} Painfully low IQ. I recommend spending the money you lose in FX on a good English course. Might help you find a job to help pay for your Forex habit lol. C u in a month.
Nobody here cares to read the continual bickering between you two

Aussi Aug 16, 2019 12:45am | Post# 2229

{quote} Nobody here cares to read the continual bickering between you two
never seen you before must be a friend of mine interfering in my space , bickering even when i pointed and added charts and comments to be helpful was the key for new traders from getting there accounts blown

Aussi Aug 16, 2019 1:01am | Post# 2230

{quote} Nobody here cares to read the continual bickering between you two
ok gstring will refrain from from bickering from him but will start with you glad your inputs on exotics was very helpful keep it up

Aussi Aug 16, 2019 6:16am | Post# 2231

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directxxx Aug 21, 2019 4:10am | Post# 2232

{quote} Painfully low IQ. I recommend spending the money you lose in FX on a good English course. Might help you find a job to help pay for your Forex habit lol. C u in a month.
How is your LONG UZ trade going?

ForexSir Aug 21, 2019 8:46am | Post# 2233

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Hello everyone,

I'd like to share my views on the current USD/TRY state, but first a few things to say about the Exotic currency pairs.

I believe more and more traders are starting to take their focus off the major pairs and starting to look at exotics as a gold mine. It is true that exotics provide more liquidity and there is stronger volatility involved in those markets, which could give your trades faster development. However this could also have a negative impact - your Stop Losses being hit quite fast. I personally trade exotics, but I usually invest in them the money I've already won from my main trading approach on the Majors. My approach to the exotics is usually intraday, since in the long run its' harder to survive on the spikes and huge noise there is connected with those pairs. Not to mention that the fees for keeping a trade open are higher and the spread is also higher.

So I take my winnings and invest them in intraday trades on the Exotics as the trades develop sometimes extremely fast and it can multiply my winnings. If its' a loss I am fine with it, because my main capital is not touched.

So moving on to the USD/TRY. Obviously the economic situation in Turkey is bad for quite some time and the USD was gaining swinging further up against the TRY. Now that the economic situation in the states is becoming more and more unstable with each day we've entered in to a downtrend on this pair. I suppose it could not get worse than that for the TRY. Below is the Daily chart of the currency pair with some additional info.


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Analysis: We can see that in the past few days the pair starting swinging up again and has now reached a strong previous support zone, now turned in to a resistance. I expect to see a downswing here which could give us a possibility to make a quick intraday trade.

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Analysis: On the H4 time frame we can see that 2 impulse waves were completed and only 1 correctional wave. If we see a movement down I expect it to end at the end of Wave 1 or the previous high in this uptrend. It almost aligns with a low made on the daily chart around 5.6183.

So based on that analysis I'll be switching to M30 in order to find good intraday opportunities.

I hope this analysis helps you! If you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask!

And I wish everyone a profitable trading day, week, month, year and eternity!

Ayax.TSS Aug 22, 2019 5:23am | Post# 2234

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#USDTRY / Daily / Four Ideas Click to Enlarge

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Willer Aug 23, 2019 10:42am | Post# 2235

{quote} 20 and 30 within a year from now. I'm in a substantial long-term position. Zimbabwization will accelerate due to Eskom leading to sovereign debt default.
Thanks ElParcero, but I think like the others said you can make a sh*t load more up and down. For now, 15.0000 will be broken next week

2dollardog Aug 31, 2019 9:01pm | Post# 2236

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Hey there, Supertraders!

usdMXN

According to the Daily (and the WK for now) it looks short. I'm twisted with a stronger dollar, so I'll watch it closely before deciding.

The charts are showing me that the H1 needs to come up into that cycle. There's a nice obvious fib/50sma/R38 pivot confluence that looks nice and easy. Right?

If she's short, she's gonna come back down around that area, my guess.

Alternatively, if DXY decides to start screaming again, I can leave in the trade and just ride it. I can tell that vis Stochastic momentum readings. You can't, because my indicator is custom. But stochastic set to 5,3,2 should show this momentum if you know how to read it well.

You see the orange zig zag? That's a weak double bottom pattern on H4 if there's a bullish run. I bet it's short-lived if it is a bullish run. The D1 on my chart has a cnfm high. The W1 on my chart has an unconfirmed high. The monthly is in a position to go either bull or bear on my stochastic indicator and that's cause for risk concern. I'm always trying to take trades when guys like you swing big money and often I must be very patient.

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see the MM make it look like it's going to run up solid, but come back down with it.




MED/HIGH RISK.
Attachment 3427965

Edit: WE'RE CLOSED MONDAY . . . . so, time to sit on fingers until volume kicks in

Attachment 3427966

However, MEXICO has some bizness going on around 7am EST. So, there's that.
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2dollardog Aug 31, 2019 9:18pm | Post# 2237

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{quote} ok gstring will refrain from from bickering from him but will start with you glad your inputs on exotics was very helpful keep it up
NOTICE:

There's a pecking order around these parts. The cool part is, most of the old timers don't expect you to roll out the red carpet HOWEVER, if there's one thing I've learned:

If there's anyone on FX that has been here a long time AND they claim they are from AUSTRALIA, you should probably shut up. Not real sure what they put in the drinking water in Australia, but it produces some seriously excellent FX traders.

Therefore, it does not surprise me that Aussi was correct. Just look at that bear move:
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That being said,

Hey Aussi, I've seen this behavior before via usdMXN :
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That was quite a lesson for me. Hard to forget how I got chewed up in that.


So, I might look into trading usdZAR. It needs to make another daily top (but no guarantee).

edit: Ignore my text. That's my 'idiot text'.

Aussi Aug 31, 2019 9:47pm | Post# 2238

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} NOTICE: There's a pecking order around these parts. The cool part is, most of the old timers don't expect you to roll out the red carpet HOWEVER, if there's one thing I've learned: If there's anyone on FX that has been here a long time AND they claim they are from AUSTRALIA, you should probably shut up. Not real sure what they put in the drinking water in Australia, but it produces some seriously excellent FX traders. Therefore, it does not surprise me that Aussi was correct. Just look at that bear move: {image} That being said, Hey Aussi,...
tip zat mxn
look at open and one hour after open if you see the stoch twist a little down i usually get a small sell some times as you know zar can move up but in my experiance it does come down during the day in saying that watch it every day for a week mate on hr chart it might show you what i am talking about

regarding the post on the guy buy on zar you can see the chart mate and he probably as made money but if holds in a ranging market buy swaps will kill his profitClick to Enlarge

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2dollardog Aug 31, 2019 9:55pm | Post# 2239

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usdZAR

Still don't have a bottom on the Monthly swing. My first instinct is to think:

It's making a double top formation.

That would require the DXY to go into a very very bad scenario - like crash scenario bad - and, well, that is possible, but it is not probable. I want probabilities, especially higher probabilities.

The better probability is: It's ranging to haul into a higher low on the monthly chart.

Note: By "higher low" I'm talking about my missing green arrow (stochastic calculations).

The other alternative is: usdZAR makes a higher high on the monthly. I'm not counting on it as we need some retracements on this pair and also the DXY.

The rest of this chart reads exactly like usdMXN. And you know what that means. It's all on the dollar.

Attachment 3427978

Now I look at economic activity for ZAR. Oh look! Happenings at 6am est.
Attachment 3427979

Let's not forget: USD and CAD banks are closed Monday. Happy holiday!
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Aussi Aug 31, 2019 10:01pm | Post# 2240

usdZAR Still don't have a bottom on the Monthly swing. My first instinct is to think: It's making a double top formation. That would require the DXY to go into a very very bad scenario - like crash scenario bad - and, well, that is possible, but it is not probable. I want probabilities, especially higher probabilities. The better probability is: It's ranging to haul into a higher low on the monthly chart. Note: By "higher low" I'm talking about my missing green arrow (stochastic calculations). The other alternative is: usdZAR makes a higher high...
closed yukkkkkkkkk means Asian and London only well have to watch out liquid things might happen
on zar i have limit sells higher mate


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