when you trade exotics you have to beware of the risk involved in buys on it
now if you had bought at the bottom at the end up side i can see profit less swaps and i am sure you can make a few dollars i have no problem with that trade risky being a exotic , but better trading would have seen you travel both ways
I'd like to share my views on the current USD/TRY state, but first a few things to say about the Exotic currency pairs.
I believe more and more traders are starting to take their focus off the major pairs and starting to look at exotics as a gold mine. It is true that exotics provide more liquidity and there is stronger volatility involved in those markets, which could give your trades faster development. However this could also have a negative impact - your Stop Losses being hit quite fast. I personally trade exotics, but I usually invest in them the money I've already won from my main trading approach on the Majors. My approach to the exotics is usually intraday, since in the long run its' harder to survive on the spikes and huge noise there is connected with those pairs. Not to mention that the fees for keeping a trade open are higher and the spread is also higher.
So I take my winnings and invest them in intraday trades on the Exotics as the trades develop sometimes extremely fast and it can multiply my winnings. If its' a loss I am fine with it, because my main capital is not touched.
So moving on to the USD/TRY. Obviously the economic situation in Turkey is bad for quite some time and the USD was gaining swinging further up against the TRY. Now that the economic situation in the states is becoming more and more unstable with each day we've entered in to a downtrend on this pair. I suppose it could not get worse than that for the TRY. Below is the Daily chart of the currency pair with some additional info.
Analysis: We can see that in the past few days the pair starting swinging up again and has now reached a strong previous support zone, now turned in to a resistance. I expect to see a downswing here which could give us a possibility to make a quick intraday trade.
Analysis: On the H4 time frame we can see that 2 impulse waves were completed and only 1 correctional wave. If we see a movement down I expect it to end at the end of Wave 1 or the previous high in this uptrend. It almost aligns with a low made on the daily chart around 5.6183.
So based on that analysis I'll be switching to M30 in order to find good intraday opportunities.
I hope this analysis helps you! If you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask!
And I wish everyone a profitable trading day, week, month, year and eternity!
Hey there, Supertraders!
According to the Daily (and the WK for now) it looks short. I'm twisted with a stronger dollar, so I'll watch it closely before deciding.
The charts are showing me that the H1 needs to come up into that cycle. There's a nice obvious fib/50sma/R38 pivot confluence that looks nice and easy. Right?
If she's short, she's gonna come back down around that area, my guess.
Alternatively, if DXY decides to start screaming again, I can leave in the trade and just ride it. I can tell that vis Stochastic momentum readings. You can't, because my indicator is custom. But stochastic set to 5,3,2 should show this momentum if you know how to read it well.
You see the orange zig zag? That's a weak double bottom pattern on H4 if there's a bullish run. I bet it's short-lived if it is a bullish run. The D1 on my chart has a cnfm high. The W1 on my chart has an unconfirmed high. The monthly is in a position to go either bull or bear on my stochastic indicator and that's cause for risk concern. I'm always trying to take trades when guys like you swing big money and often I must be very patient.
In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see the MM make it look like it's going to run up solid, but come back down with it.
Edit: WE'RE CLOSED MONDAY . . . . so, time to sit on fingers until volume kicks in
However, MEXICO has some bizness going on around 7am EST. So, there's that.
There's a pecking order around these parts. The cool part is, most of the old timers don't expect you to roll out the red carpet HOWEVER, if there's one thing I've learned:
If there's anyone on FX that has been here a long time AND they claim they are from AUSTRALIA, you should probably shut up. Not real sure what they put in the drinking water in Australia, but it produces some seriously excellent FX traders.
Therefore, it does not surprise me that Aussi was correct. Just look at that bear move:
That being said,
Hey Aussi, I've seen this behavior before via usdMXN :
That was quite a lesson for me. Hard to forget how I got chewed up in that.
So, I might look into trading usdZAR. It needs to make another daily top (but no guarantee).
edit: Ignore my text. That's my 'idiot text'.
look at open and one hour after open if you see the stoch twist a little down i usually get a small sell some times as you know zar can move up but in my experiance it does come down during the day in saying that watch it every day for a week mate on hr chart it might show you what i am talking about
regarding the post on the guy buy on zar you can see the chart mate and he probably as made money but if holds in a ranging market buy swaps will kill his profit
Still don't have a bottom on the Monthly swing. My first instinct is to think:
It's making a double top formation.
That would require the DXY to go into a very very bad scenario - like crash scenario bad - and, well, that is possible, but it is not probable. I want probabilities, especially higher probabilities.
The better probability is: It's ranging to haul into a higher low on the monthly chart.
Note: By "higher low" I'm talking about my missing green arrow (stochastic calculations).
The other alternative is: usdZAR makes a higher high on the monthly. I'm not counting on it as we need some retracements on this pair and also the DXY.
The rest of this chart reads exactly like usdMXN. And you know what that means. It's all on the dollar.
Now I look at economic activity for ZAR. Oh look! Happenings at 6am est.
Let's not forget: USD and CAD banks are closed Monday. Happy holiday!
on zar i have limit sells higher mate
© Forex Factory