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-   -   US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing? (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/787890-us-and-euro-stocks-mounting-one-more-rally)

cat Feb 15, 2019 4:06am | Post# 601

Betting on the unexpected I think Dow Jones will form a new ATH ----> 30,000 then 33,000 reason ? China Trade deal will drive this market into a manic phase {image} Second...will the 1929 / 1987 crush style come?? Yes it definately come... {image} Russell gives the clearest indication of this upmove {image} DAX appears to have bottomed and also China A50 shares index . Thank you All the best {image}
Going on the higher tfs, ie, monthly & two monthly, that is easily possible if it can break above 27,000.

cat Feb 15, 2019 4:30am | Post# 602

As I said, I think we'll see lower levels on both Dax and Dow today, but, just depends on how high the pullback goes. The levels I am looking at are the fibs, firstly the 38.2% is a contender on the Dax @ 113, then the 50% which is sitting on today's CP @ 144, and finally the 61.8% @ 173. I don't see the price going higher than that today, but of course, that's only what I see, so could be wrong.

ps - the first test could be just above, at 080, the 10m 100sma level.

cat Feb 15, 2019 6:19am | Post# 603

If you anticipated the strength of this up move on the Dax this morning, then hats off to you, because I certainly didn't. It's just above the 61.8% now, and it knows it's there. If it does break higher, then it should move up to R1 @ 214, and any higher than that, which is also the 76.4% retrace, and I really am flummoxed!

medici Feb 15, 2019 6:37am | Post# 604

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The Dow took off from a nice bear trap down between upward sloping SMA100 and SMA200. Now consolidating around SMA50. Will this be the sell zone for the afternoon action?

And DAX obediently went where the Dow went
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cat Feb 15, 2019 6:37am | Post# 605

You've got to go back to the 4th Jan to find a longer H4 candle than this one, which closes in 22 mins.

PariCovek Feb 15, 2019 6:38am | Post# 606

If you anticipated the strength of this up move on the Dax this morning, then hats off to you, because I certainly didn't. It's just above the 61.8% now, and it knows it's there. If it does break higher, then it should move up to R1 @ 214, and any higher than that, which is also the 76.4% retrace, and I really am flummoxed!
Upward slopping 4H 200sma where it found its support there this morning. We are really quite far down from ATHs on Dax still when compared to say Dow...

cat Feb 15, 2019 6:40am | Post# 607

The Dow took off from a nice bear trap down between upward sloping SMA100 and SMA200. Now consolidating around SMA50. Will this be the sell zone for the afternoon action? And DAX obediently went where the Dow went {image}
Yes, I had that, the H1 200ema/sma support level, just thought the pullback would be much shallower and would then roll over for lower levels, but what do I know!

cat Feb 15, 2019 6:42am | Post# 608

Both Dax and Dow are pretty close to their 76.4s though right now from the previous highs, and this has got to be a very key level.

medici Feb 15, 2019 6:46am | Post# 609

Both Dax and Dow are pretty close to their 76.4s though right now from the previous highs, and this has got to be a very key level.
Yes, it looks like this is the end of the up move. May the selling commence

cat Feb 15, 2019 7:16am | Post# 610

{quote} Yes, it looks like this is the end of the up move. May the selling commence
That was a wicked H4 candle, great if you traded it from the bottom, but not so great if you were hanging onto shorts, I wasn't but many traders must have been.

Neither am I convinced it has topped, as Dow certainly looks like it could move higher. My bearish bias has gone for the day, and I'm sitting on the sidelines for now waiting for something to shape up.

cat Feb 15, 2019 7:40am | Post# 611

Check for M3 diversion on this little pop up on Dax!

cat Feb 15, 2019 8:14am | Post# 612

That diversion has held, thus far, and is just about confirming now and crossing to the downside. Lovely diversion pattern with MACD, but is it enough??

cat Feb 15, 2019 8:36am | Post# 613

Right I just shorted that at 300 with a 20 SL and will put it down to experience and go and have a beer if it carries on up.

cat Feb 15, 2019 8:47am | Post# 614

If I get away with this one, the beers are on me!

Ross88 Feb 15, 2019 8:49am | Post# 615

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I'm short AEX came in at 532.997 12/2/2019 10.00 GMT I almost came out today but am holding SL is now 535.198
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looking at the charts on months i think we have room to go higher
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cat Feb 15, 2019 9:12am | Post# 616

Anyone wondering whether to short, I will just say that my Dax short at 300 is incredibly risky as it is well above all of the supporting moving averages on the smaller time frames, from which the price can, and usually does, kick back up again in a trend. I based my trade purely on a topping MA I have on my H3 time frame which coincides with what should be a strong resistance zone for Jan and Feb. Not worth risking a big SL, but in terms of risk reward should it run for me, it is excellent. Normally I would wait for more confirmation, but here, I thought I'd chance it. If I can move to BE, I'll probably leave it over the weekend, but that's premature, as my trade is still under great threat of being stopped out.

cat Feb 15, 2019 9:18am | Post# 617

Should also point out that today's candle on Dax has brought the price up to form what is now at least, a perfect head and shoulder pattern on H4, the left shoulder being 24th jan, and the head 5th Feb.

cat Feb 15, 2019 9:33am | Post# 618

These markets are ballistic today. Can one of you fundi experts please tell me what's going on?

avibe Feb 15, 2019 9:49am | Post# 619

just wait for the china announcement....you guy.... short sellers will be on suicide watch

cat Feb 15, 2019 9:59am | Post# 620

just wait for the china announcement....you guy.... short sellers will be on suicide watch
What China announcement are you referring to exactly?


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