Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Trading Discussion (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=11)
-   -   US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=787890)

cat Feb 8, 2019 5:23pm | Post# 501

1 Attachment(s)
Nice rally towards the end of the day in US equities, and the Nasdaq and S&P actually finished the day in the green.

I always keep my eye on a 90m chart as I use X3 spacing, so 10m, 30m, 90m, etc which means that my indicators don't overlap, and it is the 90m 200ema which sent the Dow back up this evening, at least for me it was.

The attached chart marks the fibs which may come in as resistance on Monday, with the 50% being the first one to watch as it sits on top of the 100sma.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Wall Street 7th.png
Size: 56 KB

medici Feb 9, 2019 8:08am | Post# 502

{quote} Short Dow 25306 Long Dow 24895 Not taking any chance on giving 400 pips back to the market!
Well done

medici Feb 9, 2019 8:18am | Post# 503

3 Attachment(s)
The rally that started on Boxing Day exhibits the typical behaviour of market cycles (again, see Tony Plummer's book).

The significant highs came as predicted at 1/6, 1/2, and 5/6 of the time of the full cycle, confirming that the Wednesday high was indeed the high of rally which will now suffer a correction before the cycle ends early next week

To see what is in store after that, one may apply a similar analysis to the cycle that started on the 3rd of October. Significant lows appeared 1/6 and 1/2 into the cycle, and the 7th wave completing the pattern should reach a significant low towards the end of February, which in its turn will go through a correction in March before the cycle ends.

Finally, applying the same kind of analysis to the rally that started March 2009, we're seeing that the high of the rally is likely in place, and that it will take a couple of years to complete the correction, before a new cycle can begin.

The overlay in all charts is a Gann Square - introduced by W D Gann to study symmetries in time and price.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Gann Square January 2019.png
Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: Gann Square 2 2019.png
Size: 195 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot 2019-02-09 at 13.34.21.png
Size: 218 KB

cat Feb 9, 2019 8:50am | Post# 504

{quote} Short Dow 25306 Long Dow 24895 Not taking any chance on giving 400 pips back to the market!
Excellent...625 pips if you followed both through to the end...not a bad day's work!

tomase Feb 9, 2019 11:58am | Post# 505

Thanks for the above medici and cat. Both trades still live and at the moment I'm playing the long as a hedge with a view to taking it off as close as possible to the top of the rally (if that is what this current pa is) and obviously leaving the short on for a much greater drop on the Dow. It'll be interesting to see what happens early next week. And the Tony Plummer book arrived this morning!

medici Feb 11, 2019 3:37am | Post# 506

GM - The Dow perkier than usual for a Monday morning. SMA20 on the hourly was strong support overnight, and now SMA50 broken through without effort. 8.18 was a good time to join the ride.

Will SMA100 hold, or will the upper Bollinger 50 be the target? Or will there be surprises on the way? TWT

My guess is that it will keep rolling until NYSE open, when selling will commence.

Islander Feb 11, 2019 3:55am | Post# 507

GM Dow now ~the 50% retrace of the drop from last Wednesday's high with its 61.8 % some 50 pts higher. Numerous minor "levels" in these areas too, but looks like the BRN at 25,200 will be hit next...

medici Feb 11, 2019 3:56am | Post# 508

1 Attachment(s)
GM Dow now ~the 50% retrace of the drop from last Wednesday's high with its 61.8 % some 50 pts higher. Numerous minor "levels" in these areas too, but looks like the BRN at 25,200 will be hit next...
Yup, here's my target:
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot 2019-02-11 at 08.53.31.png
Size: 111 KB

cat Feb 11, 2019 4:47am | Post# 509

G'mornin all!

What a nice little move to start the week. Dow reached its 61.8% ( chart above posted Friday ) & Dax its 30m 100sma.

I don't see new intra-day lows today, so I would say now that these levels may be as high as we go this morning, so perhaps dropping back a bit for another run north later.

medici Feb 11, 2019 5:14am | Post# 510

G'mornin all! What a nice little move to start the week. Dow reached its 61.8% ( chart above posted Friday ) & Dax its 30m 100sma. I don't see new intra-day lows today, so I would say now that these levels may be as high as we go this morning, so perhaps dropping back a bit for another run north later.
Agreed, it could now be sideways until NYSE open. I've banked, and am waiting for possible reload before lunch. Looking less likely by the minute...

cat Feb 11, 2019 5:20am | Post# 511

{quote} Agreed, it could now be sideways until NYSE open. I've banked, and am waiting for possible reload before lunch. Looking less likely by the minute...
I don't think anyone would send you to the naughty corner for banking there.

medici Feb 11, 2019 5:32am | Post# 512

{quote} I don't think anyone would send you to the naughty corner for banking there.
Thank you Yes, 120+ points is a good start to the day

Now break from the screens until NYSE open.

medici Feb 11, 2019 5:47am | Post# 513

Price action today reminds me of Thursday 24th of January. Same strong push up, then sideways consolidation. Today the mood is more bearish, but the bears have an upward sloping SMA200 on the hourly to contend with. The afternoon will be interesting.

dispersion Feb 11, 2019 6:24am | Post# 514

Price action today reminds me of Thursday 24th of January. Same strong push up, then sideways consolidation. Today the mood is more bearish, but the bears have an upward sloping SMA200 on the hourly to contend with. The afternoon will be interesting.
bearish mood on which assets? Are you talking about dollar, or stocks? I think the expectations mount that Trump or White House deliver some negative surprise about tariffs, like.. next round of the fight

medici Feb 11, 2019 6:28am | Post# 515

{quote} bearish mood on which assets? Are you talking about dollar, or stocks? I think the expectations mount that Trump or White House deliver some negative surprise about tariffs, like.. next round of the fight
I was referring to the Dow Jones Index. And my humble opinion is that news matters not much at all.

Islander Feb 11, 2019 11:00am | Post# 516

1 Attachment(s)
Dow Cash on my M5 chart shows that impressive rally from the London Open up to the confluence of levels around 25,250 where that HV (in relation to the current activity) Wide Ranged shooting star indicated some profit taking by the SM.

The retrace to the overnight open gave another weaker rally back to the same area again in a HV WR shooting star (AKA a reverse Hammer)

The Open of the NYSE Cash was sold back down to the area of the LO when a WR HV Hammer back into the conjestion area from 5 - 7 days ago where price has held. Two nice moves for European Traders
Click to Enlarge

Name: feb11 dow m5 1545.png
Size: 37 KB

cat Feb 12, 2019 2:27am | Post# 517

Both Dax and Dow at critical potential resistance levels here, Dax at its H1100sma/200ema/R2 pivot, and Dow up on yesterday's resistance which was the 30m 200sma. Chances of falling back pretty high, so we'll see what the London boys do with them.

PariCovek Feb 12, 2019 2:29am | Post# 518

Both Dax and Dow at critical potential resistance levels here, Dax at its H1100sma/200ema/R2 pivot, and Dow up on yesterday's resistance which was the 30m 200sma. Chances of falling back pretty high, so we'll see what the London boys do with them.
Can see those, but I reckon she may want to 2H 200sma at 160ish.

cat Feb 12, 2019 2:34am | Post# 519

{quote} Can see those, but I reckon she may want to 2H 200sma at 160ish.
Pushing up again Dax, so may want higher. R3 is a level to watch closely if it gets there, as it's my H3 100sma and the 61.8% fib retrace from the 5th Feb high.

medici Feb 12, 2019 2:49am | Post# 520

GM - For the Dow SMA6000@1m = SMA200@30m = SMA100@1h has been support during the Frankfurt hour,, with Camarilla H3 as resistance. One of those will break, and it looks like the latter at the moment.


© Forex Factory