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-   -   Swing x1, x2, x3 Strategy by Kelvin (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=751543)

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 9:33am | Post# 1

Swing x1, x2, x3 Strategy by Kelvin
 
8 Attachment(s)
The Swinghighlow Strategy

The Swinghighlow Strategy is based on trading trend Reversal and finding the candle pattern that turns the direction of trend.
Arrows - the arrow finds a 3 candle formation setup in several different variations.
The Green/Red thick lines - This marks zones of likely reversals point. Zones if the arrows forms above/below could begin a new trend.
Dotted lines – This is also a zone marking a minor trend reversal/continuation

What is a Trend
A trending market is one in which price is generally moving in one direction.
uptrend
“higher highs” and “higher lows”

Downtrend
“lower highs” and “lower lows”.

What is Trend Reversal
Reversals are defined as a change in the overall trend of price.
- When an uptrend switches to a downtrend, a reversal occurs.
[
- When a downtrend switches to an uptrend, a reversal also occurs.

Uptrend reversal occurs when price stops making a higher highs and higher lows
Downtrend reversal occurs when price stops making a lower lows and lower highs.



Combining it all together

Find a Horizontal line in an Uptrend (Red)
Remember uptrend is characterized by ‘’Higher highs and higher lows’’
- Allow for price to consolidate around horizontal line
- Observe if the price formation has changed routine (of higher highs and higher lows) to ‘’lower highs and lower lows
- If this is true take arrow signals for sell

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VERSION 3.4

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Find download link here. It is free

https://t.me/swinghighlowstrategy/337 (Download from Telegram channel)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fnj...ew?usp=sharing (Download from google drive)

Version 3.4 template.tpl
- A complete strategy all in one
- Pure price action
- profit target inclusive
- price action filter to avoid most pitfalls
-Repaint issue solved
- Will run commentary on all signal from indy and together discuss entry

AUTOMATIC INSTALLATION USING META SETUP

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recommended template setting
Attachment 2788992


Stay tune.





Regards
Kelvin

{ virus risk deleted by staff }

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 9:50am | Post# 2

5 Attachment(s)
ENTRY
Entry is at the open of the candle after x3

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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 10:03am | Post# 3

1 Attachment(s)
Time Frame

5mins, 15mins, 30mins, 1hr, 4hrs, Daily

Currency Pair

All currency pair

Indicator Setting

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pakeha Mar 31, 2018 10:16am | Post# 4

Nice thread Kelvin

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 10:18am | Post# 5

1 Attachment(s)
FAKE OUTS AND FILTER

Fake outs are few and can be avoided. Although filter isn't 100%.

At first i used the filter settings included in my strategy indy, but even that wasn't very effective.
Now i filter using MACD as seen in the image

I wonder if it is possible to program this filter into the indy? To get Alerts only when the condition explained in the image is true

Sell Condition

- X3 close
- Open Sell Entry
- if MACD Signal is > Value
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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 2:05pm | Post# 6

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A few of the setup from this week

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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 2:17pm | Post# 7

I am open to

- Suggestions

- E.A /indicator improvement/development

- Strategy improvement

- Money management Suggestions

- Questions

pakeha Mar 31, 2018 4:42pm | Post# 8

Kelvin, any examples of trades that would not have worked last week. That is the perspective from which to think about filters and settings. With MACD divergences are known to work well, as an example.

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 5:50pm | Post# 9

3 Attachment(s)
Kelvin, any examples of trades that would not have worked last week. That is the perspective from which to think about filters and settings. With MACD divergences are known to work well, as an example.
Some examples where x1, x2, x3 failed

But trades would have been avoided using MACD

FILTER FOR BUY

@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal

FILTER FOR SELL

@ X3 MACD Signal must be > Value

Saved by MACD
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jacksparrow1 Mar 31, 2018 5:55pm | Post# 10

looks very simple and easy

dkrock Mar 31, 2018 6:03pm | Post# 11

I should tell you that I am an intraday swing trader, so I was curious about your thread title. However, for some reason, my posts tend to start battles, so I will just ask you a question. Since all of your screenshots are historical, how do you know, in live trading, that you have reached a high/low? I don't think you do. I would strongly advise demo trading until you figure it out. Also, just a tidbit, but a 12/26 MACD crosses the 0 line near the crossover of EMA 12 and EMA 26. Not sure if that was your intended signal or not. Good Luck.

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 6:40pm | Post# 12

I should tell you that I am an intraday swing trader, so I was curious about your thread title. However, for some reason, my posts tend to start battles, so I will just ask you a question. Since all of your screenshots are historical, how do you know, in live trading, that you have reached a high/low? I don't think you do. I would strongly advise demo trading until you figure it out. Also, just a tidbit, but a 12/26 MACD crosses the 0 line near the crossover of EMA 12 and EMA 26. Not sure if that was your intended signal or not. Good Luck.


how do you know, in live trading, that you have reached a high/low?

I know my highs/lows when the x1, x2 , x3 candle pattern forms.
x1 is always the ever changing topmost or lowest candle in a trend. it keep changing
x2 also keeps changing
BUT
X3 once it closes pass x2 .. x1 becomes fixed/locked

So i know my high/low only when x3 closes. When this happens then its time for entry.

MACD

I use MACD figures.. the figures from the Value and Signals
Not crossovers



@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal


@ X3 MACD Signal must be > Value

pakeha Mar 31, 2018 7:28pm | Post# 13

Kelvin

Looks good.

Have you seen any instances where the X1, X2, x3 occurs and the MACD value/signal trigger was correct, but price immediately went against the strategy and caused a losing trade. I know this touches on money management, however all I am trying to determine is whether you have seen an instance where the x3 and MACD were in alignment but the market went the other way. Note: I have done a quick look through some pairs from last week and couldn't readily identify such a case.

If no case exists then you likely have a satisfactory filter and as a result a good strategy. Then its figuring out the money management piece that works best and how to consistently make money. I would suggest that needs to be figured out before embarking on the EA development. The exit and MM piece is usually more challenging than the entry.

pakeha Mar 31, 2018 7:46pm | Post# 14

1 Attachment(s)
Here is an example on GBPUSD H1 March 16, plus another on March 15 - admittedly they are the exception. Seem to occur in really tightly ranging markets.
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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 8:14pm | Post# 15

Here is an example on GBPUSD H1 March 16, plus another on March 15 - admittedly they are the exception. Seem to occur in really tightly ranging markets. {image}
Yes there are cases like this too, but few. I yet have n't found a way to avoid those.

A good Money management method will go a long way.

cfudge Mar 31, 2018 10:22pm | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
Hi Kelvin
This is very interesting...
I have spent the last hour or so trying to figure out a good filter for these trades. I tried lots of indicators and configurations in my bag of indis.
I put on ichimoku with only the wave showing, I then took every sell when they appeared above the wave and took every buy that appeared below the wave.
SL was above/below the #1 candle.
TP was when the opposite signal showed up, on the other side of the wave. That would mean closing your open trade(s) and opening new trade going the opposite way. I say "trade(S)" because if you get more than one signal you should take it. Consequently you could have 2 or more trades open in the same direction at once, all would close when the opposing signal shows up on the other side of the wave.

I have tested this on EURUSD 1hr chart for all of March 2018 and it looks quite promising I will attempt more TFs and pairs when time permits.
On my chart you will see Aqua numbers under/over the corresponding trades, these are the amount of pips won/lost in the trade. The ones with SL means the SL was hit and how many pips were lost. All numbers are based off of the close price of #3 candles.
Total pips gained without the 133 open trade is 290 pips.

on.

Chris
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EDIT EURUSD 4hr August 30 2017 to now 783 pips with +66 pips open
USDJPY 4hr Sept. 01 to now 881 pips
GBPJPY 4hr Sept 01 till now 557 pips (very volatile)
Gold 4hr sept 22 till now 1608 pips
OIL 4hr sept 01 till now 1168 pips with +252 open

I believe there is enough to warrant a forward test on several pairs. Will post 4 hr results soon.

truongquyen1 Apr 1, 2018 3:04am | Post# 17

1 Attachment(s)
Hi kelvin,
You can share the MACD indicator which you using.

FILTER FOR BUY
@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal
FILTER FOR SELL
@ X3 MACD Signal must be > Value

I backtested with your rules, but in some cases, can you help me explain. pls see more detail as attached.
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kelvinonw Apr 1, 2018 4:01am | Post# 18

Hi Kelvin This is very interesting... I have spent the last hour or so trying to figure out a good filter for these trades. I tried lots of indicators and configurations in my bag of indis. I put on ichimoku with only the wave showing, I then took every sell when they appeared above the wave and took every buy that appeared below the wave. SL was above/below the #1 candle. TP was when the opposite signal showed up, on the other side of the wave. That would mean closing your open trade(s) and opening new trade going the opposite way. I say "trade(S)"...
Hello Chris

Well done. ichimoku with only the wave looks good a filter.

T.P
"...TP when the opposite signal showed up, on the other side of the wave. That would mean closing your open trade(s) and opening new trade going the opposite way..." This sounds right This means also wining trades will run more.

S.L
S.L is above x1 when on sell position. On buy position s.l is below x1. Then also when a counter setup forms.

Kindly keep me updated with more of your test results. I thank you for your time.

Regards
kelvin

Effax-square Apr 1, 2018 4:28am | Post# 19

subscribed.
love new trading ideas being shared

osho619 Apr 1, 2018 5:50am | Post# 20

thanks for the system, can pls upload templete?

J1mm Apr 1, 2018 5:50am | Post# 21

Hello,

First thanks for the post!

Sorry for the question but, how are we backtesting this? as ZigZag repaints in manual backtesting all entries seems correct and the indicator (1,2,3) appears when ZigZag is drawn if I'm not wrong.

Regards,
Jimm

kelvinonw Apr 1, 2018 6:11am | Post# 22

Hello, First thanks for the post! Sorry for the question but, how are we backtesting this? as ZigZag repaints in manual backtesting all entries seems correct and the indicator (1,2,3) appears when ZigZag is drawn if I'm not wrong. Regards, Jimm
The strategy indicator doesn't repaint. it only complete its full cycle only when x3 close above/below x2 for buy and sell respectively.
if there isnt a close of x3 candle above x2 then there wouldn't be an alert.

so x3 candle close is the key to making it non repainting.

kelvinonw Apr 1, 2018 6:38am | Post# 23

3 Attachment(s)
thanks for the system, can pls upload templete?
i use this template.
kelvinstrategytemplate.tpl

Then this indy is just session indy. i just use it to make my chart look colorful
i-Sessions.ex4i-Sessions.mq4

qfx1987 Apr 1, 2018 9:02am | Post# 24

Indicator not wokring ...

diamonddbw Apr 1, 2018 12:34pm | Post# 25

1 Attachment(s)
Hi Kelvin. Need some help understanding UJ H4 chart from post #9.

Your MacD criteria for buy is:
FILTER FOR BUY

@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal

In this example, that criteria is clearly met. However the post begins with you saying

"Some examples where x1, x2, x3 failed

But trades would have been avoided using MACD"

It seems to me that I'm not completely understanding your criteria. Please help me to comprehend what's going on in this chart. Value is a positive number 0.0003 while Signal is a negative number -.00868
Thanks,
Darryl
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Gigant Apr 1, 2018 12:39pm | Post# 26

thx for sharing !!!

kelvinonw Apr 1, 2018 1:23pm | Post# 27

Hi Kelvin. Need some help understanding UJ H4 chart from post #9. Your MacD criteria for buy is: FILTER FOR BUY @ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal In this example, that criteria is clearly met. However the post begins with you saying "Some examples where x1, x2, x3 failed But trades would have been avoided using MACD" It seems to me that I'm not completely understanding your criteria. Please help me to comprehend what's going on in this chart. Value is a positive number 0.0003 while Signal is a negative number -.00868 Thanks, Darryl {image}
Ya that image falls into the failed setup even with macd. i meant there are some cases were all the conditions are met and still it fails.. that usdjpy 4hr belongs to that category.

Criteria for buy still is


FILTER FOR BUY

@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal

50d Apr 1, 2018 1:52pm | Post# 28

If its been good for 5years, then thats enough back/forward test.
I can only apply this to the daily chart as i have limited myself to that timeframe.

Always glad to learn something new.

cheers.

diamonddbw Apr 1, 2018 2:11pm | Post# 29

{quote} Ya that image falls into the failed setup even with macd. i meant there are some cases were all the conditions are met and still it fails.. that usdjpy 4hr belongs to that category. Criteria for buy still is FILTER FOR BUY @ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

OK. Thanks for clarifying.

rafael5643 Apr 1, 2018 2:28pm | Post# 30

What kind of win % do you see with this?

cfudge Apr 1, 2018 10:15pm | Post# 31

2 Attachment(s)
Hi Kelvin
Not sure if I can PM pics so I will put them here.

Same rules as we were talking about (taking all signals...)

Chris
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kelvinonw Apr 1, 2018 10:27pm | Post# 32

Hi Kelvin Not sure if I can PM pics so I will put them here. Same rules as we were talking about (taking all signals...) Chris {image} {image}
Wow this is very impressive.

Making an E.A should be the next step to backtest and forward test.

cfudge Apr 1, 2018 11:20pm | Post# 33

{quote} Wow this is very impressive. Making an E.A should be the next step to backtest and forward test.
Yes...I don't use EAs but this is so simple to test that it would be nice to see if it pans out over longer times.

If anyone is interested the EA should simply take every signal (after close of #3 bar, no MACD or any other indicators) and put a stoploss above/below #1 bar.
The trade(s) will be closed at the opposite signal where we would set a new trade in that direction...so on and so on.

Kelvin please add or tell me to delete this post as this is your thread and these are not your initial rules.

Here are the results from some pairs from sept. to now
US30 10,184 pips
CHFJPY 1533 pips
GBPJPY 2278 pips
EURUSD 1072 pips

Chris

kelvinonw Apr 1, 2018 11:33pm | Post# 34

{quote} Yes...I don't use EAs but this is so simple to test that it would be nice to see if it pans out over longer times. If anyone is interested the EA should simply take every signal (after close of #3 bar, no MACD or any other indicators) and put a stoploss above/below #1 bar. The trade(s) will be closed at the opposite signal where we would set a new trade in that direction...so on and so on. Kelvin please add or tell me to delete this post as this is your thread and these are not your initial rules. Here are the results from some pairs from...
Chris
This is okay.
But should have the option of MACD indicator included with a true/false button. This is so we can test the variations.

E.A/indicator with these updates will be nice

dinhienhy Apr 2, 2018 12:14am | Post# 35

Nice thread Kelvin
Thanks,

pakeha Apr 2, 2018 12:40am | Post# 36

{quote} Yes...I don't use EAs but this is so simple to test that it would be nice to see if it pans out over longer times. If anyone is interested the EA should simply take every signal (after close of #3 bar, no MACD or any other indicators) and put a stoploss above/below #1 bar. The trade(s) will be closed at the opposite signal where we would set a new trade in that direction...so on and so on. Kelvin please add or tell me to delete this post as this is your thread and these are not your initial rules. Here are the results from some pairs from...
Chris, I notice that some of the signals occur when the #3 close is actually "in the cloud" as opposed to being above or below it. What was your decision on those?

cfudge Apr 2, 2018 11:28am | Post# 37

4 Attachment(s)
{quote} Chris, I notice that some of the signals occur when the #3 close is actually "in the cloud" as opposed to being above or below it. What was your decision on those?
Hi Pakeha

I have some examples here.
I would say as a general rule I would like to see most of the signal outside the cloud.
If there has been a decent move and the signal shows up amongst the cloud you could close and not re-open a new trade or simply move to BE. In most cases the SL is close by and will take you out.
See charts.

Chris
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kelvinonw Apr 2, 2018 12:19pm | Post# 38

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FEW OF THE STRATEGY SIGNALS 02-04-2018

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There are other signals in smaller time frames in other pairs. An E.A/indy with the filter would do a better work. Can Anyone help with making E.A/Indy?

Arkangela Apr 2, 2018 1:20pm | Post# 39

Hello,

I don't understand the last trades. All trades must have been triggered last week, not today.
For AUD/NZD H4 on 29.03.2018 MACD value is above MACD signal -> no trade
EUR/CHF ok
EUR/JPY H4 signal appears on 27.03.2018 (and MACD value > MACD signal -> no trade) not on 29.03.2018 (I don't have this one on my chart)
NZD/CAD H4 Ok (I don't have this one on my chart)

KiidoX Apr 2, 2018 3:01pm | Post# 40

kelvinonw how do you determine your tp? U Wait for opposite signal?


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