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-   -   Swing x1, x2, x3 Strategy by Kelvin (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=751543)

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 9:33am | Post# 1

Swing x1, x2, x3 Strategy by Kelvin
 
8 Attachment(s)
The Swinghighlow Strategy

The Swinghighlow Strategy is based on trading trend Reversal and finding the candle pattern that turns the direction of trend.
Arrows - the arrow finds a 3 candle formation setup in several different variations.
The Green/Red thick lines - This marks zones of likely reversals point. Zones if the arrows forms above/below could begin a new trend.
Dotted lines – This is also a zone marking a minor trend reversal/continuation

What is a Trend
A trending market is one in which price is generally moving in one direction.
uptrend
“higher highs” and “higher lows”

Downtrend
“lower highs” and “lower lows”.

What is Trend Reversal
Reversals are defined as a change in the overall trend of price.
- When an uptrend switches to a downtrend, a reversal occurs.
[
- When a downtrend switches to an uptrend, a reversal also occurs.

Uptrend reversal occurs when price stops making a higher highs and higher lows
Downtrend reversal occurs when price stops making a lower lows and lower highs.



Combining it all together

Find a Horizontal line in an Uptrend (Red)
Remember uptrend is characterized by ‘’Higher highs and higher lows’’
- Allow for price to consolidate around horizontal line
- Observe if the price formation has changed routine (of higher highs and higher lows) to ‘’lower highs and lower lows
- If this is true take arrow signals for sell

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VERSION 3.4

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Find download link here. It is free

https://t.me/swinghighlowstrategy/337 (Download from Telegram channel)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fnj...ew?usp=sharing (Download from google drive)

Version 3.4 template.tpl
- A complete strategy all in one
- Pure price action
- profit target inclusive
- price action filter to avoid most pitfalls
-Repaint issue solved
- Will run commentary on all signal from indy and together discuss entry

AUTOMATIC INSTALLATION USING META SETUP

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recommended template setting
Attachment 2788992


Stay tune.





Regards
Kelvin

{ virus risk deleted by staff }

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 9:50am | Post# 2

5 Attachment(s)
ENTRY
Entry is at the open of the candle after x3

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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 10:03am | Post# 3

1 Attachment(s)
Time Frame

5mins, 15mins, 30mins, 1hr, 4hrs, Daily

Currency Pair

All currency pair

Indicator Setting

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pakeha Mar 31, 2018 10:16am | Post# 4

Nice thread Kelvin

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 10:18am | Post# 5

1 Attachment(s)
FAKE OUTS AND FILTER

Fake outs are few and can be avoided. Although filter isn't 100%.

At first i used the filter settings included in my strategy indy, but even that wasn't very effective.
Now i filter using MACD as seen in the image

I wonder if it is possible to program this filter into the indy? To get Alerts only when the condition explained in the image is true

Sell Condition

- X3 close
- Open Sell Entry
- if MACD Signal is > Value
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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 2:05pm | Post# 6

5 Attachment(s)
A few of the setup from this week

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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 2:17pm | Post# 7

I am open to

- Suggestions

- E.A /indicator improvement/development

- Strategy improvement

- Money management Suggestions

- Questions

pakeha Mar 31, 2018 4:42pm | Post# 8

Kelvin, any examples of trades that would not have worked last week. That is the perspective from which to think about filters and settings. With MACD divergences are known to work well, as an example.

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 5:50pm | Post# 9

3 Attachment(s)
Kelvin, any examples of trades that would not have worked last week. That is the perspective from which to think about filters and settings. With MACD divergences are known to work well, as an example.
Some examples where x1, x2, x3 failed

But trades would have been avoided using MACD

FILTER FOR BUY

@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal

FILTER FOR SELL

@ X3 MACD Signal must be > Value

Saved by MACD
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jacksparrow1 Mar 31, 2018 5:55pm | Post# 10

looks very simple and easy

dkrock Mar 31, 2018 6:03pm | Post# 11

I should tell you that I am an intraday swing trader, so I was curious about your thread title. However, for some reason, my posts tend to start battles, so I will just ask you a question. Since all of your screenshots are historical, how do you know, in live trading, that you have reached a high/low? I don't think you do. I would strongly advise demo trading until you figure it out. Also, just a tidbit, but a 12/26 MACD crosses the 0 line near the crossover of EMA 12 and EMA 26. Not sure if that was your intended signal or not. Good Luck.

kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 6:40pm | Post# 12

I should tell you that I am an intraday swing trader, so I was curious about your thread title. However, for some reason, my posts tend to start battles, so I will just ask you a question. Since all of your screenshots are historical, how do you know, in live trading, that you have reached a high/low? I don't think you do. I would strongly advise demo trading until you figure it out. Also, just a tidbit, but a 12/26 MACD crosses the 0 line near the crossover of EMA 12 and EMA 26. Not sure if that was your intended signal or not. Good Luck.


how do you know, in live trading, that you have reached a high/low?

I know my highs/lows when the x1, x2 , x3 candle pattern forms.
x1 is always the ever changing topmost or lowest candle in a trend. it keep changing
x2 also keeps changing
BUT
X3 once it closes pass x2 .. x1 becomes fixed/locked

So i know my high/low only when x3 closes. When this happens then its time for entry.

MACD

I use MACD figures.. the figures from the Value and Signals
Not crossovers



@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal


@ X3 MACD Signal must be > Value

pakeha Mar 31, 2018 7:28pm | Post# 13

Kelvin

Looks good.

Have you seen any instances where the X1, X2, x3 occurs and the MACD value/signal trigger was correct, but price immediately went against the strategy and caused a losing trade. I know this touches on money management, however all I am trying to determine is whether you have seen an instance where the x3 and MACD were in alignment but the market went the other way. Note: I have done a quick look through some pairs from last week and couldn't readily identify such a case.

If no case exists then you likely have a satisfactory filter and as a result a good strategy. Then its figuring out the money management piece that works best and how to consistently make money. I would suggest that needs to be figured out before embarking on the EA development. The exit and MM piece is usually more challenging than the entry.

pakeha Mar 31, 2018 7:46pm | Post# 14

1 Attachment(s)
Here is an example on GBPUSD H1 March 16, plus another on March 15 - admittedly they are the exception. Seem to occur in really tightly ranging markets.
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kelvinonw Mar 31, 2018 8:14pm | Post# 15

Here is an example on GBPUSD H1 March 16, plus another on March 15 - admittedly they are the exception. Seem to occur in really tightly ranging markets. {image}
Yes there are cases like this too, but few. I yet have n't found a way to avoid those.

A good Money management method will go a long way.

cfudge Mar 31, 2018 10:22pm | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
Hi Kelvin
This is very interesting...
I have spent the last hour or so trying to figure out a good filter for these trades. I tried lots of indicators and configurations in my bag of indis.
I put on ichimoku with only the wave showing, I then took every sell when they appeared above the wave and took every buy that appeared below the wave.
SL was above/below the #1 candle.
TP was when the opposite signal showed up, on the other side of the wave. That would mean closing your open trade(s) and opening new trade going the opposite way. I say "trade(S)" because if you get more than one signal you should take it. Consequently you could have 2 or more trades open in the same direction at once, all would close when the opposing signal shows up on the other side of the wave.

I have tested this on EURUSD 1hr chart for all of March 2018 and it looks quite promising I will attempt more TFs and pairs when time permits.
On my chart you will see Aqua numbers under/over the corresponding trades, these are the amount of pips won/lost in the trade. The ones with SL means the SL was hit and how many pips were lost. All numbers are based off of the close price of #3 candles.
Total pips gained without the 133 open trade is 290 pips.

on.

Chris
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EDIT EURUSD 4hr August 30 2017 to now 783 pips with +66 pips open
USDJPY 4hr Sept. 01 to now 881 pips
GBPJPY 4hr Sept 01 till now 557 pips (very volatile)
Gold 4hr sept 22 till now 1608 pips
OIL 4hr sept 01 till now 1168 pips with +252 open

I believe there is enough to warrant a forward test on several pairs. Will post 4 hr results soon.

truongquyen1 Apr 1, 2018 3:04am | Post# 17

1 Attachment(s)
Hi kelvin,
You can share the MACD indicator which you using.

FILTER FOR BUY
@ X3 MACD Value must be > Signal
FILTER FOR SELL
@ X3 MACD Signal must be > Value

I backtested with your rules, but in some cases, can you help me explain. pls see more detail as attached.
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kelvinonw Apr 1, 2018 4:01am | Post# 18

Hi Kelvin This is very interesting... I have spent the last hour or so trying to figure out a good filter for these trades. I tried lots of indicators and configurations in my bag of indis. I put on ichimoku with only the wave showing, I then took every sell when they appeared above the wave and took every buy that appeared below the wave. SL was above/below the #1 candle. TP was when the opposite signal showed up, on the other side of the wave. That would mean closing your open trade(s) and opening new trade going the opposite way. I say "trade(S)"...
Hello Chris

Well done. ichimoku with only the wave looks good a filter.

T.P
"...TP when the opposite signal showed up, on the other side of the wave. That would mean closing your open trade(s) and opening new trade going the opposite way..." This sounds right This means also wining trades will run more.

S.L
S.L is above x1 when on sell position. On buy position s.l is below x1. Then also when a counter setup forms.

Kindly keep me updated with more of your test results. I thank you for your time.

Regards
kelvin

Effax-square Apr 1, 2018 4:28am | Post# 19

subscribed.
love new trading ideas being shared

osho619 Apr 1, 2018 5:50am | Post# 20

thanks for the system, can pls upload templete?


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