It is also a fact, that a skilled card counter can turn the edge to his favor by being opportunistic and by dynamic betting.
The counting itself is not the most difficult part, the key itself if keeping a disciplined approach.
A card counter cant really sit on the sideline to wait for the right opportunity window to come; need to bet every single hand.
A retail trader have the luxury to watch the "cards come and go", but does he/she has the discipline to wait for the right opportunity, and 'bet' as required for the specific situation?
Most people go to casino, and play.
Even though they know the odds are against them.
Winning isnt the first and foremost importance, they go for the fun, the thrill, or just to not be home.
Most "traders" arent into forex for winning.
Deep down anyone knows that 20$ or 100$ or even 1000$ wont take one very far, and even 10% return would be pocket money, if at all cover the withdrawal cost on a small account.
But winning is not the first and foremost importance, they "trade" forex for the fun, the thrill or to have something to moan on a forum and feel that belong somewhere.
I used this wholesale/retail as basis for my argument. You laid out a fine example of all the businesses that depend on the next customer in the chain. And each business in this chain, 95% will fail before 10 years in business
Trading is a business, whether forex, bonds, stocks, metals, or beans (soybeans). Most businesses will fail, so singling out forex (whether cash or futures) seems like sour grapes.
In trading, we have the cards dealt before we trade. So anyone who has tested trading strategy can take money from the untested as well as the movers who are providing liquidity.
The gamblers place orders 5 minutes before NFP, the wise speculator places orders 15 minutes after NFP. But these poor sods, the gamblers and get rich quick type, would do same thing in business, start business before doing market research.
Human nature does not change.
Excellent post, PF
If you think you can count cards within retail forex - good luck. If you are trading based on prediction - good luck.
All scientific data shows beyond the slightest doubt that retail forex is a negative game for losers.
Yes, there is an entertainment factor.... and yes, if you sell the whole thing like it is, no problem. But the whole industry sells it based on epic lies...and an industry that sells their products based on lies, will never ever play fair with their customers.
cos there was the same thing said you try to tell, as fact is...LOL
you are entitled to your opinion what forex is or isnt,
and you may well be right too...
but that begs the question:
why are you still wasting your time on a forex forum???
is that the entertainment factor?
"why are you still wasting your time on a forex forum" - pure entertainment...... and 100% to kill my boredom at work when I work from home! And to show the so-called 'profitable' traders/scammers/educators where they belong....
There are not many left out here who can hold a savvy conversation without name calling and bitching over stupid nonsensical shit. Just standard regurgitated shit is what we read over and over!
And, The title of this thread is "can you make money as a trader?" - my response is ABSOLUTELY Yes! But how much is the real question we must ask! It takes YEARS and over a decade for most to eventually yield some return on their effort. so one must factor in their return from day one all the incredibly long hours required to make a decent profit. When you measure this way, a guy flipping burgers is way better off than majority of FX traders in the retail industry.
Am I net profitable since 2006? - YES.
How much profitable? over 250% of total deposits
What is my hourly rate of return since 2006.... it's literally in pennies per hour!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Worst rate of return even for those who are net profitable.
Well... we should also look what all the famous financial/trading movies are trying to sell us, without exceptions...
You have to have something BEYOND..., if you want to have the consistent edge otherwise the market adapts, fast.
Look at the most popular financial movies that some traders were so inspired by, me included
Wall Street (1987) - good understanding of markets, how markets works and all.. but THE BASE was INSIDE trading...
You still have to have the knowledge to know what to do with it, that is why Gordon Gekko was so good at it, he had the info and know how to manage/exploit it.
You can give info to some people outside of industry.. and they might still blow the house over it or massively under-harvest the profits
Wall Street - Money Never Sleeps (2010)... CREDIT bubble then all went BUST.. except this time Gordon Gekko seemed to know which stocks to pick.. but again, he had 100mio to start with and after the crash, rolling the cash snowball (buying lows) seems to be pretty straightforward, but you still have to have the knowledge to not make some vital mistake (buying worthless things, entering in a bad contract etc..)
Boiler Room (2000) - Chop shop pump and dump... and selling hopes and dreams
*The Pursuit of Happyness - selling/pushing stocks.. if I remember correctly..
Trading Places (1983) - inside trading
Margin Call (2011) - credit bubble, (over)leveraging, (over)selling, (fire)selling
Madoff (2016) - (played by Drew Gregory - by far better than De Niro version, if you ask me) - ponzi; he was surprise himself how far it went... he believes they knew (or should) what was going but just loved to ride the profit wave... in fact he states in the movie that "some" countries are build like his scheme, which one... you should look for yourselves.
Enron - serious manipulation (closing down electric plants to generate price spike etc...; just to name a few)
Pretty Woman (1990) - not remembering it well, but corporate raiding? (you had to already have big money to make money by buying whole and selling by pieces)
Arbitrage (2012)... cooked books
Wolf of Wall street (2013) - fugazi
Rogue Trader (1999) - fake profits, cooked books
Billions - TV series 2016... similar to Gekko... very realistic show btw, almost too much
The bottom line is... All of them shows you either had to have BIG MONEY to make (more) money... or to CHEAT (technical exploit, legal exploit, manipulate markets) etc... And if you know ANY movie that shows one poor trader that gets to massive money, repeatably/teachably/legally by maybe reading books, please let me know.. I either haven't crossed one or had a strong amnesia about it But even though those were the basis of real money generation, they still TRADED real trades along the way, they just had this help on the side I mean Gekko didn't just INSIDE trade, he made real trades too... Buying real estate building, resale it... Riding the real estate bubble etc... He had a good market feel for innovation (mini TV, electronic blood pressure) and future trends... But "THE JUICE" was what it was
So SURE THINGS are inside info, manipulation or cheats, other is pretty much chaotic which means some things seem to happen some of the time. I think this is a fair deal... To take into an account that you seemed to find some EDGE in the market that might not last so exploit it while you can. This is maybe the reason why we don't see 100% returns per year, 10years in a row... I think many traders do have edge, but markets do change. Anyway, I think the FBI has the formula that if some "fund" etc has more than 10% profit per year (consistently)... it is most probably a ponzi scheme and they start to investigate
As I have already explained in some other posts.. if you would "know" how to make 20PIPs per day... (within 20PIP SL) for example... that seemed to be "max" risk:reward ratio for many here... you could afford 500:1 with 10% stop/margin; 90% return per trade... and if you can make 40 wins in a row (40 days)... can I please stake you with 100EUR/USD so we can both be TRILLIONAIRES after 40 trading days ? This calculation alone should be either proof that CONSISTENT errorless EDGE is impossible... or someone doesn't know he is sitting on WEALTH OF THE WORLD or is super stealthy/secret https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E40
I currently believe in CHAOTIC edge.. in a way that edge/knowledge do exist but works (only) in some conditions or at some timeframe, not all the time..
that is why It is essential to know the golden rule of knowing "when not to trade".
I mean is there any movie, apart of the "The Bank (2001) - that had different plot holes" that actually says that you can actually learn to earn money in the stock markets.. by trading? Corporate raiding seems also be straight forward, mergers etc... But for REAL trading.. there basically are no schools, no guarantees. The sad thing is that you have to be in this business for 20+ years to realise simple truths. Everything is a risk.
There were some tricks, still are maybe, when people where exploiting technical delays when placing orders etc.. but as soon as that becomes too big, brokers use the latency arbitrage, close liquidity, put you in manual execution, reverse your trades or ban you for life
The best combination it seems that you know the markets, the economy/economics can help (or be ignorant at the right place, time... can be profitable also) and to get some sort of edge. The most str8 forward seems to be INSIDES or CHEATS of some sort (manipulation, technical exploits etc... But there appear to be many others... There is one famous Mathematican hedge funder... James Harris S.. Is this a coincidence?
The funny thing is that it might be similar to professional sports. They have very strong rules against any substance abuse but many suspect they are all doing it But they still have to heavily train and do know the game.... Similar to hedge funds or high returns. Some try to mask insides with research, that is the name of the game or to earn enough before it is blown or some even price this in
It is possible? It seems so. Can you be absolutely sure (in the next trade)? Not even if you have fix on the game
my 2 cents. Yes, there are people who can pull consistent profits year after year I guestimate around 2% of all retail traders. The other 98% end up with a bag of mixed results. Most of us have winning streaks compounded by losing streaks which usually take all the winning streaks profit and then some leading to the inevitable blown account.
Coming to this realization that there is no way to be consistently profitable If I choose to do this full time is something not a lot of traders even consider. But here is the kicker....what if you didn't do this full time or even part-time? What if you use higher time frames 4hr and above and just trade once a week or once every 2 weeks? Now your goals change. You stop putting the emphasis on pulling a daily or weekly profit to nailing entries and exits. If the end goal was an extra $300 a month how much less stress do you think would be involved. Less stress + less emotion = profitable trading.
Now you take the extra $3000(figuring in you are gonna have dd) you made for the year and invest that into your trading and slowly you build your account up. I for one would be happy that if I did this and gained an extra $xxxxx 5 years from now.
and one of which was, I remembered it well, I also practice it.. "Learn when NOT to trade"... For example, I am done LIVE trading for this week, market is much too weird, at least in my book. I will re-test strategies without (much) live trades and estimate if I should or when to enter LIVE again... That was maybe one of the reasons I have overall positive P/L after 10years..
You cannot compare "new businesses" to retail forex trading.
Retail forex trading is not a business
You need to compare "apples to apples"
For exemple, you can compare the game of roulette to retail forex trading.
And state the following "in gambling, some games appear to be more profitable than others, how does retail forex trading compare ?"
re-visiting your thread.
I do not understand how you and the rest of the suicide bunch would invest in a business that you have no profitable plan and are totally clueless on how to make a profit. I understand when young people rush in but you cannot pull the youth exemption card.
You clearly, with the wisdom of old age, gambled and lost as you did not test if you had the edge against the market makers.
Hope you learned a lesson. If you can't swim, stay out of the deep end of the pool.
Mingary tried forex get rick quick, lost it, and now wants to save the world from his/her impulsing gambling rather than a sound business plan. You may learn from Mingary. Or, you will become the next Mingary if you do not use a system you have personally tested with real money testing for your emotion reactions.
"it's possible to swim for a while" is what the retail forex marketing machine in all its forms counts on to recruit new swimmers.
"Come on for a swim the water is fine...."
"Trading is a business for professional traders"
This is a euphemism for "I am a gambler applying my gambling strategy"
Facts are facts and the similarities between gambling in a casino and retail forex trading are overwhelming.
Not even knowing who you are, I can safely say that you are not making a living trading the retail forex market as your only source of income (unless you are "recruiting" which is the ONLY WAY to make money in this game)
At best, like the many mugs who feed the industry, you are finding some initial success and it lead you to believe that "trading is a business for professional traders"
Any Reversal to the Mean system is all fun and games until the ceiling explodes or the bottom falls out.
The Pivot thread is a perfect example.
And just not that particular method ...What the market gives, the market takes back 10 fold or more
I have 4 tested strategies, 2 for trending and 2 for ranging, one scalp one swing each. Quite profitable, only had one losing year since 2010. No need to reveal strategies to you as you will not believe they work
lots of similarities.
but there is a fundamental difference.
the casinos will ban you for applying a business like mind, and play professionally, ie. be a card counter.
the casinos apply min and max bets with lot less flexibility than trading, for statistically it gives them a further edge.
as a business, while in trading the field is far from levelled, one has a lot better chance to apply a business like mindset/approach vs in the casino.
to do so, it isnt easy, but isnt impossible goal.
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