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-   -   Can YOU make money as a trader? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=734507)

HeyYou Mar 22, 2019 2:55pm | Post# 921

It might sound harsh but I think you need to work hard to FAIL. 90% of "tradrs" must be complete idiots. Now the other 10% have to deal with them for a while, that's why the learning curve is so steep for EVERYONE. Personally I wasted several years gambling with high leverage...but at least I knen I was gambling, so I had some fun. Learn to ignore EVERYONE... no matter how confident they look. Learn programming, trust your own statistics, practice mindfulness...it helps to remove greed and so on..
I absolutely agree with myself. if you listen you're f**d. trading is a game of skill.. like Poker or something like that. those who know the rules have an edge.

HudithePfupf May 16, 2019 5:30am | Post# 922

No. Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.

At any given point of time over a periode of 6 months, 65-85% of all retail forex account lose money. (Esma)
There is absolutly no valid proof out there that retail traders made significant money on a longer timescale > 5 years in a consistent way.

There is a lot of proof out there that others have the following edges against retailers:

- spread, commissions, swap differences between long / short, rollover
- information advantage around news events and economic releases
- information advantage about positioning, leverage ratios, etc
- speed advantages
- the advantage of speculating with no or little leverage

It is a fact that the market is highly efficient in the view of a retail forex trader. No technique based on information from the past (price, volume, etc) will ever deliver a decision base to overcome this fact.

So all here on FF claiming that they are profitable are either simply profitable on a limited periode of time based on luck, are simply lying (95%), are affiliate marketers who earn money by channeling new victims to brokers, are broker employees or people benefiting in some way from the massive amount of money retailers loose year after year..... is a substantial cake...so very few here on FF with a long track record have no relations to this industry.

This is the way zero sum markets are organized - those who organize and facilitate these markets have set and adapt these rules to make sure this is true over any longer periode of time for every participant. If this wouldn't be the case, a zero sum market would vanish quite quickly.

All those claiming they make consitently money are scammers, fraudster or believe their own lies till reality hit them hard. If somebody would be able to consistently make even just 6% / year net of all fees he would be better than probably 98% of all speculative traders, including the professional ones in a zero sum market. Such skills would make you a valuable asset to many financial companies and let you earn more with a far better risk profile than trading retail forex...... so again - there is no long term profitable forex retail trader - none - zero.

You are wasting your time. None of you will be profitbale over a 10 year time horizen by placing speculative bets in a zero sum market.

venividivici May 16, 2019 1:45pm | Post# 923

No. Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers. At any given point of time over a periode of 6 months, 65-85% of all retail forex account lose money. (Esma) There is absolutly no valid proof out there that retail traders made significant money on a longer timescale > 5 years in a consistent way. There is a lot of proof out there that others have the following edges against retailers: - spread, commissions, swap differences between long / short, rollover - information advantage around news events and economic releases - information advantage...


And you are on a trading forum wasting your time advising traders that they will not make any money and it doesnt work?

Do you have a life?

HeyYou May 16, 2019 3:12pm | Post# 924

lol

ForestX May 16, 2019 3:18pm | Post# 925

No. Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers. At any given point of time over a periode of 6 months, 65-85% of all retail forex account lose money. (Esma) There is absolutly no valid proof out there that retail traders made significant money on a longer timescale > 5 years in a consistent way. There is a lot of proof out there that others have the following edges against retailers: - spread, commissions, swap differences between long / short, rollover - information advantage around news events and economic releases - information advantage...

So what is the point for YOU especially to be on a forum or even trade forex if you know you won't be consistent in this market in the long term? I don't get it, is it because you show how knowledgable you are in life or just trying to "save" someone from risking their time and money in the markets?

auricforecas May 16, 2019 3:51pm | Post# 926

The thing is... make with what?
You could be good at predicting trends/prices... but without proper capital you would have to screw leverage so tight that ONE TWITT could erase your profits..
I personaly do not know a trader that earns longterm without insides/cheats or is a wizard..
Sure there are many appear to be one at least in the short time..
I have seen beginners doubling, trippling the account in a matter of weeks.. they dropped out of school, watching nothing less than ferraris... untill a few margin calls and it was over...

To be honest it is very hard to EXTRACT the "JUICE" beyond any reasonable doubt... because there are just so many factors... at least in the longrun...
There is a famos hedge funder... I wont promote him... he was in the business for 40years (managing billions later)... great FX insider, their model worked good until it didn't..
His explanation is either they stopped or that the invervention were just to big... specialy when central banks were in play saving nations.... how can you beat that?
Specially if you are either leveraged or have a time-pressure for return... Greatest players.. central banks, QEs etc... can squeeze you out of any position, for quite some time... enough to crush your confidence or scare the investors away...

But if you realy have it... you can win in the longrun because there is no amount of money that can keep FX manipulated in the longrun, the market is just to big, beyong and possible bailout, easing or so..

And one more/last thing.. "Golden Rule" of the traders seem to be Risk:Reward 1:1 at the max... at the same time 20PIPs (TP) (they say) is not that much....
With that in mind... TP20, SL20... you could play with 500:1 at stop-out 10% (it exists)... and you would need only....a little more than 25trades to become a BILLIONAIRe (with a B, so 10^9) out of pocket change (100USD)... So whoever say you TP20 is NOTHING and the same time says R:R max 1:1.. is full of.. or he doesn't know how to cash his skill... send it to me immediately..

I fact, if you can make TP0 (yes, ZERO profit), just covering the spread... and do that at good leverage, 50+:1, with full account in... and be in a (rollover) position for lets say 10+ days a month... send it to me.. immediately... he is sitting on one of the best returning funds....


TP20 is GOLD... if you can make it with risk:reward... 1:1.... 10+ times in a row.. with a good chance of success... contact me, I have news for you, you are a wizard... I will throw money at you.... (100USD->60k USD in 10trades at 500:1, 10% stop; TP20, SL20, 100% win)..

So you see even if anyone would have SMALLEST EDGE, but consistent.... TIGHTNESS is a plus (SL level tightness->leverage).... he would become a millionaire while going to a strip clubs...

BTW I have been trading 10+years.. still have profitable account, seen shit you wouldnt believe... I covinced many that I might have it... but I never did kid myself that I have anything.. it might all be just one big luck or chaotic luck-skill... the next trade can be over.. that is the lesson all should be aware of... we are all just one trade away... that is why the ultimate goal of any serious trader is to get out of this racket as soon as possible.. park in something stable... but still play with FX or markets on the side.. but from FU position, not guessing if the next trade(s) will make you a billionare or a bump because that is the reality of things..

That was about REAL TRADERS...

Then you have IBs... they dont trade, they execute, provide liquidty...

and than you have AXELRODS... but they dont like FX that much.. they prefer something more... how do we say it... LESS UNCERTAIN things...
FX is hardest.... too big market for any longterm... fix...

hope anyone reads this... keep the comments for yourselves, I only accept positive ones... if it helps anyone.. otherwise just PASS...

ABOVE is JUST my oppinion, if you dont agree, GREAT, if you can get something out of it... GREAT

take care

venividivici May 16, 2019 6:36pm | Post# 927

The thing is... make with what? You could be good at predicting trends/prices... but without proper capital you would have to screw leverage so tight that ONE TWITT could erase your profits.. I personaly do not know a trader that earns longterm without insides/cheats or is a wizard.. Sure there are many appear to be one at least in the short time.. I have seen beginners doubling, trippling the account in a matter of weeks.. they dropped out of school, watching nothing less than ferraris... untill a few margin calls and it was over... To be honest...
So you see even if anyone would have SMALLEST EDGE, but consistent.... TIGHTNESS is a plus (SL level tightness->leverage).... he would become a millionaire while going to a strip clubs...


JTTrader- May 16, 2019 9:01pm | Post# 928

Ya but you need to be a skilled trader. Dont be rash and quick to make decisions. keep a journal and keep learning.

goose4 May 18, 2019 4:53pm | Post# 929

No. Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers. At any given point of time over a periode of 6 months, 65-85% of all retail forex account lose money. (Esma) There is absolutly no valid proof out there that retail traders made significant money on a longer timescale > 5 years in a consistent way. There is a lot of proof out there that others have the following edges against retailers: - spread, commissions, swap differences between long / short, rollover - information advantage around news events and economic releases - information advantage...


Great post

retail Forex is like casino

just play for fun

goose4 May 18, 2019 4:56pm | Post# 930

All markets, including forex, are too efficient for anyone to ever make money from it using retail forex
The movements in forex follow a random walk. No one, not retail traders, not big banks, not even insiders, can predict where the market will go. Everyone who speculates on the forex markets will lose money. Out of 100 trades, they will make money half of the time, and lose money half of the time. However, they will lose slightly more than they gain, because of the transaction costs.
This has been proven for 30 years, by market researchers like Brian Malkiel, Eugene Fama and etc.
Forex is just not a zero sum game. It is a NEGATIVE SUM GAME when you add in the brokerage costs.
I recommend anyone who wants to play forex to go down to your local casino and spend $50 trying to beat a roulette wheel. That roulette wheel will teach you more about forex than the internet ever will. It will save you a lot of hardship, and will help you come to the realisation that forex is just gambling, and will rip you off just as that roulette wheel did.
Technical analysis does not work. If it did, then people would buy/sell whenever there is a buy/sell signal and the advantage would dissapear because the price would move to yoru target profit even before you enter.

goose4 May 18, 2019 4:59pm | Post# 931

Assets get you rich.

Not retail forex,

The rich get assets.

SKLearn May 19, 2019 10:42am | Post# 932

Can YOU make money as a trader?

Seems like many do.

for example, in the Pivot Trading thread, lot of people sharing their profit report generated by trade report indicator every week or so.


newbegger May 21, 2019 1:30am | Post# 933

Lessons learned from any aspiring traders. Quite a few losers in here posting how you will lose in trading. The goose - lost it all. Hudinpuff - lost it all.

Fact is - most will end up as these poor planners did. Don't make the same mistakes. Get to know your personality so you are trading with you beliefs. Take the time to learn as there is no rush.

Every day another goose or hudinpuff will enter into trading blindly and start trading with no trading plan and they will be there to give you their money.

goose4 May 21, 2019 11:00am | Post# 934

Lessons learned from any aspiring traders. Quite a few losers in here posting how you will lose in trading. The goose - lost it all. Hudinpuff - lost it all. Fact is - most will end up as these poor planners did. Don't make the same mistakes. Get to know your personality so you are trading with you beliefs. Take the time to learn as there is no rush. Every day another goose or hudinpuff will enter into trading blindly and start trading with no trading plan and they will be there to give you their money.

You should study Eugene Fama. A nobel prize winner in economics> he has stated you cant win at retail forex.

You dont trade for a living ? Why lie my friend?

reads article below

I invest in assets like property and stocks,it has made me good money in the last 20 years.This is the way to wealth assets not gambling
forex is great for fun at retail level


https://www.ft.com/content/f80e8174-...6-00144feabdc0

newbegger May 21, 2019 11:11am | Post# 935

{quote} You should study Eugene Fama. A nobel prize winner in economics> he has stated you cant win at retail forex. You dont trade for a living ? Why lie my friend? reads article below I invest in assets like property and stocks,it has made me good money in the last 20 years.This is the way to wealth assets not gambling https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yo...ket-2017-07-19
I will rephrase it for my understanding. Eugene Fama (whoever he is) has stated that HE cannot win at retail Forex. And that is true. Whether he believes he can or cannot, he is correct.

As I stated in my redux:
80% of new businesses fail in first 18 months
90% of new businesses fail in first 5 years

and according to Inc. magazine,
96% fail within first 10 years.

That's only 1 in 20 can succeed in business and many people have to make several attempts, go bankrupt or sell what's left before they become successful so percentages may be off.

Failure is one of the most useful teachers in the business world.

HudithePfupf May 28, 2019 1:27pm | Post# 936

{quote} So what is the point for YOU e....
If you can do something to make the world a better place and have an impact - do it. Others go to church, they pray and preach but most of them are completly passive and never act without a benefit for themselves. Year after year thousands of retail traders lose money, a lot of them getting a gambling addiction, finally hurting their families, relatives and society if their gambling addiction escalates ... so every potential retailer that does not risk his hard earned money in this negative sum game for losers is worth the effort, especially if he dedicates his energy to something productive instead.

.... the world is just a little bit better off and that's a good thing. I hate liars - and if there is one thing the world isn't short off these days.... it's lies, especially on the internet.

I certainly have some impact - how big? Who knows? The marketing costs to lure in new victims certainly rise..... regulation is getting better - Check.... marketing bans - check, leverage caps - check, negative balance protection - check, etc etc..... the lies will never go away completly, but at some point somebody is fully responsible himself. If he want to ruin himself despite all the clear facts that explain how stupid his retail forex endeavor really is, he should be allowed to do so.

newbegger May 29, 2019 2:20am | Post# 937

{quote} If you can do something to make the world a better place and have an impact - do it. Others go to church, they pray and preach but most of them are completly passive and never act without a benefit for themselves. Year after year thousands of retail traders lose money, a lot of them getting a gambling addiction, finally hurting their families, relatives and society if their gambling addiction escalates ... so every potential retailer that does not risk his hard earned money in this negative sum game for losers is worth the effort, especially...
A question to your logic?

At the retail market, a grocer is selling Tilapia for 5.99 lb as a special. Where I live has large illegal immigrant population so Tilapia like Salmon.
At the wholesale market 40 miles away, Tilapia sells for everyday price 2.29 lb.
Are retail grocers the same as retail forex brokers or somehow different because they cater to the locals? Please explain why or why not retail grocers <> retail forex?

NeilWagner May 29, 2019 12:12pm | Post# 938

Can YOU make money as a trader? Seems like many do. for example, in the Pivot Trading thread, lot of people sharing their profit report generated by trade report indicator every week or so.
What’s the pivot point thread that you are talking about?

HudithePfupf May 30, 2019 10:07am | Post# 939

{quote} A question to your logic?
This is a very basic economic question.... so if you don't get the difference, but you are trading Forex, it's kind of shocking to me.
People are buying fish to cover their essential need for daily nutrition


Product chain
A fisher or fish farmer earns his daily bread by raising/catching fish
A second worker by preparing them to be sold / packaging
A thrid one has made and delivered the fridge to cool them till sold
A fourth one is doing the transport to wholemarket
A fifth one selling from whole market to retail grocers
Retail grocer sells it to you
You pay money that tickels down to every person involved in providing this very useful product
You consume the fish to cover your basic need
You are getting hungry again.....

Depending on your system limits - you could analyse the full cycle with all implications and understand how to make this cycle sustainable..

Now you think your smart by buying fish at the wholesale market for less than what you have to pay in the retail grocer next door.
Nice if you can do it - no so smart if you drive 2 x 60km for 3.7 lb less cost.
You just bypassed one person in the product chain and saved the money he gets for his service, but you have to "work" to do so. You pay with time, effort, maybe using your car, gasoline, etc. etc.

In retail forex you do something that has really zero productive elements in it, something with absolutly zero real value for the overall economy.
You place a purely speculative bet, therby wasting energy, your time and your health in a zero sum game, that becomes a negative sum game for all participants due to spread, commissions, rollovers etc and you will lose money with a probability of very close to 100% your hard earned money, why literature clearly proofs beyond all doubts that there is no learning curve in speculative trading - the market is and will be efficient.

In those circumstances it isn't, those creating these inefficiencies trade with a very significant advantage on their side..... that's why all contries in the world have some form of regulation in place that try to limit these periodes of inefficient markets....(aka insider trades, trading on none public information, market manipulation, spoofing, ....etc. etc.)

Fact is: Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.

If you would prohibit retail forex trading - close to 100% of all former participants would be better off than before. The only reason why so much damage can be done is because of extrem gambling addiction, maily due to the impact of high leverage and the fact that gambling laws are not applied to this industry yet. It's nothing else than pure gambling with all negative side effects related to it, so it should be regulated accordingly to limit the fallout.

Advice:
Instead of participating in a negative sum game for losers, catch the fish yourself and sell it for 2.5lb at the best price. Allways take some of your profits to make sure the fish you catch do have the best possible habitat, clean water, enough nutrition etc. Never take more fish than naturally regrows over time, allways enhance your productivity along the chain of your service to improve your quality of life. Finally you have a sustainable model to make money and cover your needs till your personal cycle on mother earth ends. ;-)

gian97 May 30, 2019 12:32pm | Post# 940

many get addicted to alcohol, many get addicted to gambling. many lose their lives in car accidents. many lose their savings in the stock market.. or any other kind of investments. so what's the solution ? to ban fast cars, alcohol, gambling, trading and anything that may cause losses ? I stopped reading after this: "People are buying fish to cover their essential need for daily nutrition" where do you live ? in the paleolithic ?
It took two seconds to read to understand that you are Italian


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