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-   -   The Equilibrium, a key to success! (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=727775)

thelord14 Aug 5, 2019 10:55am | Post# 1001

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already have installed ATAS Platform beta version with demo account , i have a lot of tools (footprint,volume profile, delta )
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im looking for the volume indicator that's showing the trader as in your chart
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jusiur Aug 5, 2019 11:05am | Post# 1002

Bionics, really love your thread, thank you very much !!!

thelord14 Aug 5, 2019 11:14am | Post# 1003

A pure data feed can cost a few 100 per month, via a broker, it is usually cheaper. With a demo account I would first check whether the stock market data brings you an added value. If this is the case, you will have to reckon with about 100 extra effort per month. However, this is an amount that is unreasonably high for many traders. I hope I could answer your question and wish you a successful trade week best regards[/quote]

100 per month is not big problem i can pay it ,but that's depend how much those information it can improve my return in trading , i guess a lot of pepole dont know about ordor flow and footprint ,as we're a classical trader i don't wanna say beginner trader ,seems like we gonna experiment a new tools without information and that's the difficult part

Bionics Aug 5, 2019 1:26pm | Post# 1004

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[quote=thelord14;12422300]A pure data feed can cost a few 100 € per month,

Hello thelord14,

The project number 6 was created to find out if the futures market offers advantages that can be used in the Forex market. When asked about the indicator, I informed you that this is the ATAS platform that we have been testing for some time. That was not an invitation from my side, that immediately everyone must work with it. That's why they feel like they're trying out a new tool without information.

By saying that the cost was € 100 per month I did not want to express that you can not afford it, but inform our subscribers to let us first test this platform. If the additional return pays, everyone can think about whether such a platform pays for him. But until then we still have a lot of time. When confronted for the first time with the futures market, it is indeed a different world, but relatively easy to handle with experience. Nevertheless, the project 6 was launched to go through a test phase and to inform our subscribers regularly. If you look at FF, you will find that almost all traders working in the futures market are dealing with footprints, volume charts and spoofing. For the Forex market, I have already introduced a Footprint Chart alternative, which I could not recommend due to the erroneous data in the Forex market. Since our project 6 will run at least this year, so there is no hurry to start even a test phase by yourself. We will inform everyone about our progress.

I would like to give you an answer to your questions.

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You can display the number of trades by calling the Volume indicator and setting the ticks under Type.

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On the side of ATAS you will find in the support under Knowledge Base complete information about all indicators and chart settings.
Personally, I think that ATAS has released a very successful tool, but it also has some bugs that I have to investigate further. Basically, I would give no recommendation, because it has not been tested in my eyes. In that sense, we still have plenty of time.

Best regards

Bionics Aug 5, 2019 1:28pm | Post# 1005

Bionics, really love your thread, thank you very much !!!

Hello jusijur

First of all thank you for your kind words and your praise for our blog. I would like to welcome you at the same time and look forward to an exchange. In particular, I would be pleased if you find a lot of information on this blog that they bring in their training function on.

I wish you a lot of fun and of course a lot of success.

best regards

lemercenaire Aug 5, 2019 2:06pm | Post# 1006

I have to say that this is one of the most original and in depth threads on FF.

The sheer amount of information available here for free is staggering.

The fact that traders are then able to pick and choose the aspects that are of use to them directly is purely a bonus!

I have no idea if you will be able to sustain this level of knowledge transfer without burning out but for now, well done and long may it last.

Bionics Aug 5, 2019 3:48pm | Post# 1007

I have to say that this is one of the most original and in depth threads on FF. The sheer amount of information available here for free is staggering. The fact that traders are then able to pick and choose the aspects that are of use to them directly is purely a bonus! I have no idea if you will be able to sustain this level of knowledge transfer without burning out but for now, well done and long may it last.

Hello lemercenaire,

Thank you for the great compliment, it is a great honor for me to receive this praise from you. I've been burning for trading since 10 years and started this blog just 19 months ago. I have to deduct 7 months, because I completed my Java course there, which cost me over 2,000 hours. This effectively leaves 12 months left in which I was actively involved. Such a blog helps me to document my own progress.It is only my personal opinion, that is not verifiable.

The decision to turn to supply and demand many years ago was the right decision, so much I know so far. In the past, I have tried in various ways to identify resistance zones based on supply and demand and equilibrium. These zones have inexplicably often worked, but I could not create a concrete derivation from them. With the advancement within this blog, through the ideas and suggestions of many subscribers, I have used my creativity to pursue ways that make others smile or think impossible.

I'm getting more and more away from the idea that there are actually resistance zones, even though they still work. The key is still the Equilibrium or a sideways market. Within these markets, certain bid or ask are absorbed by the big players and then push the market in a desired direction. The bottom line is to find out where dump money is and then act in the opposite direction.

It usually works on the same principle. A big player absorbs within an equilibrium e.g. massive buy orders. You can tell by the fact that in the upper range of an Equilibrium massive bid in the market are made, however, bring no major price changes. (This does not always have to be related to absorption). The price continues to be in this range and the big player continues to accumulate. Suddenly the price breaks up and the stops of the traders who bought the dollar are triggered. This creates a strong green candle. For many traders, this is a sign that it is now going up. Many are getting in now. And then the big player pushes the market down massively with a big market order.

The stock market data show exactly this procedure, but this is just one example of many. When you identify a big player, it is usually too late to follow it. That's why I prefer to focus on finding out the dump money, so it's clear where the big players are.

Years ago I was inspired by the great and substantial contributions of Hanover, who has a very deep and well-founded knowledge of the markets. I hope that I can fulfill your and the expectations of all subscribers for a long time, because that means that we are on the right path. I'm glad to know some successful high-frequency traders, because they are the most successful traders in the world. We do not have their technology, but we do not need it. It is enough to know where most traders are, so as not to be taken down with them. But we are only at the beginning of a long and exciting journey. I am happy if you accompany us.

Greetings and thanks for the praise.

Bionics Aug 9, 2019 8:47am | Post# 1008

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How to use the stock market cycles correctly


Hello dear traders,


Two things we have discussed in detail in recent weeks, the Forex or stock market it is all about supply, demand and liquidity and we know that the Big Boys determine the markets. The Big Boys depend on liquidity to achieve their goals. I have written a few times before that it is crucial to put yourself in the position of a big player in order to be able to actually follow it. The big players do not think like a small investor. If we want to trade ten lots, we just hit the button and we're in the market. If we want to sell ten lots, we just hit the button and we're off the market. A professional trader trades not only with 10 lots but with some 1000 or in the forex market with 100,000 lots.

Please note that there are different interpretations for market motions. My perspective may differ from other perspectives.

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Let's take a closer look at the order book of Euro FX. At point A we see the limit order on the bid side at point B we see the limit order on the ask side. In both cases we have about 70 lots at each price level. To change the price by ten tick (5 pip in forex), a big player would have to invest 700 lot in one fell swoop. Of course, no market orders, stops or possible spoofing are included here. We know that there is a hundred times more volume in the forex market. This means that 70,000 plumb bobs would have to be invested in the forex market to change the price by five pips. At ten pip we would already be at about 140,000 plumb bobs. Of course, the big player could now just hit the button and change the price by 10 pip. But that would be a bad business.

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On the left side we see the price and can see that in the future one tick equals $ 6.25. First, we buy one lot at a price of 1.1167 and sell again at a price of 1.1169. At point C we see the result. We bought at a contact value of 139,550 and sold at 139,612.5. This gives a difference of $ 62.5.

Point D

Here we invest one lot at a price of 1.1164 and another lot at a price of 1.1166. We also sell at a price of 1,1169. Overall, we have reached a profit of $ 90 here. This means we have acquired the two lots at an average price.

Point E

In that case, at a price of 1.1164, we buy a total of two lots and sell them at a price of 1.1169. The profit here is $ 125.

As a small trader, it is no problem to be able to buy or sell at any price level at any time. A big player who deals with 1000 lots does not have these possibilities. If he buys, only what the market offers to Ask can be executed at the respective price level. Therefore, the big player usually has to try to acquire different contact sizes at a favorable price over a certain period of time. Then he can push up the price, for example, and thus achieve lucrative profits.

So it's better to collect the solder in an equilibrium or sideways market and then push the price up. Provided that there are few followers who get off the train and stop the course. First let's look at a typical market cycle.

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We start at point A first. A falling price will be slowed down by the time the high point of the sale is reached. Now the accumulation phase arises. This accumulation phase is caused by increased institutional demand. The price moves initially in a sideways range, the price structure varies. Within this range, the big players try to buy contracts at a reasonable price. In addition, they try to deceive the smaller trader that the price may continue to go down. Within this accumulation phase, you will find that the volume is relatively low, although the authority of the bulls is paramount. Before the price goes up through the accumulation channel, there is a so-called false breakout down. This breakout below is not actually wrong, but was deliberately evoked. Within this accumulation channel, there are traders who know exactly that it is an accumulation. They are positioning themselves for a possible upward trend. With the breakout down, the big players are trying to reach the stops of these bid traders. Once the stops are triggered, the course takes another small jump down. A stop by a buyer automatically becomes a sell order. For many small traders this is now a sign that the price is going down. The big player pushes the course upwards after the stop fishing. All small traders are stopped immediately.

Now the price goes up, you can see the volume is increasing. As soon as the volume goes back a bit, the so-called sell off takes place. Some traders realize their profits. The volume is still very high, indicating that the trend could continue to go up. Then the phase of re-accumulation arises. (Point B) In this phase, a similar process occurs as in the accumulation phase. There may we see stop fishing again and you will see a resistance zone after the course has left the upper re-accumulation zone. Things get interesting at point C. Buying climax creates a so-called exhaustion phase of the uptrend. One recognizes this by the fact that within the distribution phase the volume goes down massively.

There is a very interesting comparison. Imagine interpret the volume with the accelerator pedal of a car, the price movement with the speed of the vehicle and the resistance with a mountain. If a car drives up a steep mountain, and you push the gas pedal just a little, the car would eventually stop. It is interesting, if you are full throttle, but the car does not move. That would be an indication that the mountain is so steep that there is no chance to get higher.

In the so-called exhaustion phase we see that the volume (accelerator pedal) goes down, but the course (speed) is still running upwards. This is a clear indication that it can not go up much longer. Because if you do not give gas on a mountain regularly, the car stops and even rolls back.
And already we are in the distribution phase where the big players are trying to reach the market again. At the end of this phase, when the price goes back up sharply to start stopFishing, the volume suddenly rises sharply and then goes down sharply after stop phishing. Then the lower channel of the distribution zone is broken and some time later, when the price returns, this zone is accepted as resistance. Thereafter, the price goes down sharply.

At point D, there may be a re-distribution phase where the big players are again trying to enter the market cheaply. After a possible stop fishing the course runs down again. At the level where the big accumulation phase had previously taken place to push the price higher, there might be some resistance as new buyers enter the market, pushing the price higher again. Of course, this example is a prime example, and we understand that it will never happen in reality. In addition, each course is unique and will not arise in this form a second time.

The four most important phases for me are: accumulation, re-accumulation, distribution and re-distribution phase. Not otherwise was this blog: Equilibrium, a key to success called. These four phases are for me an equilibrium, where the big players are trying to find a good entry into the market. Each of these phases is initiated when a price reaches its peak and moves sideways. Then you should pay attention to the volume, to a possible stop fishing and when breaking out on the resistance zones. From this one can already deduce in which direction the course could run in the future.

These sideways movements are also very interesting for Scalper. It is much more interesting to find out what the big players are up to within this sideways movement. And here absorption comes into play.


What is an absorption?

Absorption is a scenario in which a disproportionately high trading volume occurs near the high or low of the candle, without the price moving significantly beyond that level. An ideal variant is the appearance of a large volume pattern at the price levels of support and resistances.

A "positive" absorption occurs when the market is sold "aggressively" and "passive" limit purchases can stop and turn the downside.
A "negative" absorption occurs when the market is bought "aggressively" and "passive" limit sales can stop and turn the upside.

The role of "passive" buyers or sellers is mainly occupied by large professional traders, or institutional players, who have significant financial resources. This allows them to place large limit orders in the market at certain price levels that are of interest to them or which they intend to protect. Figuratively speaking, they "sit" at these price levels and supply themselves with absorbed "aggressive" market orders of the often less professional market participants.
Interestingly, these limit orders are thrown into the market just before execution. This can be clearly seen in the ATAS order book. These limit orders stop the price and are absorbed. Thus, the big player secures certain contacts to make money at a later date.

First let's look at how the volume in the forex market is tempting us to the wrong track.

Some mathematicians have calculated that the volume in the forex market is about 80-90% in line with the futures market. I can basically confirm this statement, but in the forex market often the crucial zones are displayed with the wrong volume. And that's exactly where it does not help me, if the accuracy is only 85%.

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Here we see the EURUSD forex in the M1. There was a strong downtrend, the course has recovered and has gone up again. At point A we see a strong upward candle pushing up the course. At point C, we realize that it is a very low volume. Let's think about the gas pedal and the mountain for a moment. That's exactly why many traders have assumed another downtrend at this point. They looked for a good entry and placed their stop over the point C. At point D came the confirmation, since the volume has not increased.

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Let's take a look at Euro FX. At point A we can see that the volume has been much stronger in the downtrend than in the uptrend. At point B, we see that it is a very strong volume in the uptrend. These two points would have been an alarm sign for me not to bet on a possible downtrend. At point D you can see that in the futures market the volume has declined sharply.

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Let's take a look at the result in the forex market. At first there was a strong breakout. The stops of the traders who wanted to go down were triggered. Thereafter the price went down but not to confirm the downtrend, but to initiate a strong uptrend.

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In the overview of the futures market, we see that the volume looks similar to the volume in the forex market. It is clear that 80-90% of the volume is the same, only at the crucial points there are differences that may cost a lot of money. In the futures market, the footprint chart gives you the advantage of looking deeper into the candle. The basis for this is to form the two candles at points A and B.

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At point A, you can see a massive number of buy orders that have brought the price up. These are the stops of some traders who were triggered very quickly by the breakout.

On the left side at point B you will see the number 0 five times. The question one asks oneself, how can 0 contracts ask down such a high number of bid? This is not 0 Ask, but the price has been pushed down by the limit and market orders that the big player threw into the market. The same game we can see again at point C and D. This means that the big player has used the traders' stoppages to get into the market more favorably, and then pushed the price down sharply. It was also a kind of absorption, with most of them having no chance to take the movement with them. The information that I got before in the futures market, in any case, kept me from entering the market at this time.

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At points A and B we see a typical accumulation phase. Here you can see that strong sales orders do not lead to any significant price reduction. The assumption is obvious that these strong sales orders were absorbed. Then the course was pushed up. At point C, after the price has been pushed down, we see that even strong buy orders were no longer able to push the price up sharply. This also suggests that this is an absorption. Thereafter, the price went to point D. Again, very strong sell orders were placed, which brought no appreciable price change. Again, it is an absorption that pushed up the price. Of course you should pay attention to volume and resistance zones. This absorption can not be seen so well in a normal candle in the Forex market.

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For 10 years, I have not looking for any rumors, market assessments or news related to the EURUSD. In all currency pairs, the dollar has a revenue share of 88% and the euro a share of 38%. This means that almost any economic message could directly or indirectly affect the EURUSD. Now some will think that one should select the most important news. But that's exactly the problem, no one knows which economic news can sustainably affect a currency pair. The reason for this lies in the attitude of the individual dealers.

If a public company publishes a particularly good quarterly result, it does not necessarily mean that prices rise. If the majority of traders believe that such an outcome will not be achievable in the next quarter, the price will likely decline.

Let us imagine the following situation. A big player wants to drive up a course. First, he accumulates in the accumulation phase at a low price, a large number of contracts. As soon as he has his certain number together, he will push the course upwards. It is clear to everyone that business news plays a subordinate role. The big player will definitely try to enforce his strategy. This means the market is making the news and not the other way round. As Scalper, I do not care about news, I try to find out what's going on there in the 4 important equilibrium phases accumulation, re-accumulation, distribution and re-distribution. The faster I am able to do it, the better my entry.

It may be enough to identify one of these phases, so I have a good chance to take the subsequent strong movement with me. Which direction does not matter at all.

So it's about finding out what the big players are up to within a short period of time, even though I can see absorption right away, I'm still not able to tell when the outbreak is happening. The breakout trade is still among the most difficult trades. But in principle, it's not about the breakouts to act with. It is much more important to know which market situation I am currently in. With these findings I am able to enter interesting trades.

This could be another interesting aspect, increasing the odds in your favor while reducing the risk.

I wish you a great weekend

rosalieone Aug 9, 2019 9:08am | Post# 1009

Are you human?

Bionics Aug 9, 2019 2:36pm | Post# 1010

Are you human?
Hello rosalieone,

Thanks for the nice compliment. In fact, I am a human, in contrast to the 1000 algorithms of the big players and high frequency traders that drives us crazy every day. I stand on the side of the small traders, since I am one too. The last 10 years I have spent trying to put myself in the position of the big players, as they alone determine the market. With the normal candles that was difficult, the Bioniccandles has indeed simplified many things, but really deep you can look only in the future market in the single candle. In the last few weeks, a lot has become clear to me. While earlier I had guesses, about the next steps of the big players, I'm already closer to them today. There are a lot of big players in the market, and it seems like, if one of them is preparing his strategy, that the others are waiting something in the background until he's done his thing. Of course, this is not always the case, but it could be because the big players are reluctant to take risks with larger players because nobody knows what capital is there in the background. It is interesting, that I am able to assign big lot to individual players and can anticipate their ideas. Likewise, one can identify the dump money in the market, which in any case usually draws the short straw. My resistance zones are now getting a higher priority because I see exactly what happens when the course enters that zone. Some of my resistance zones quickly turn out to be a misinterpretation of my market assessment, but I can estimate that within a few seconds and therefore can not enter the trade. I am in trouble with the amount of information that needs to be processed within seconds in the futures market. But the order book and the time & sales list are not as confusing for me as they were at the beginning. The indicators and the information about the market go very deep, it will take a while until I know exactly what information brings me closer to the big players. It may sound very difficult, but in principle it is quite simple. If you are a motorist and for the first time sitting in a Formula 3 racing car that is also unusual at first. But when you've done a few laps, many things become clearer. Of course you will therefore not a successful Formula 3 driver, it is enough to understand the principle. In the forex market, it is enough if you are not on the side where the most will lost. I believe we have some exciting months ahead of us and of course I will publish my results regularly. I try to simplify complicated things, but this is a challenge in such a market. The fact is, with a trading system you definitely can not get on here. Decisive is the moment and you have to use it.

I wish you a nice weekend

Bionics Aug 9, 2019 3:07pm | Post# 1011

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Prepare for next week


Hello dear traders,

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In Post # 1008 I reported on the 4 important phases of accumulation, re-accumulation, distribution and re-distribution.
We are in an important phase again.

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Over the past three weeks, the price has fallen from distribution to re-distribution to accumulation. After the accumulation phase, the price has gone up sharply and now we are in a crucial phase again. In principle there are only two possibilities, we are now in a re-accumulation phase, ie. the price will continue to rise. Or we are in a distribution phase, which means the price will fall again. If you have read the Post 1008 you know which things to look out for in detail. Look at this equilibrium once in a small time unit and pay attention to the individual points that are crucial. That could help you make the right decisions next week.

I wish you success and a great weekend

best regards
Michael

Bionics Aug 11, 2019 8:43am | Post# 1012

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Example for Accumulation and Distribution


Hello dear traders,

For my crucial four important phases I would like to bring a small example of Euro FX again.

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From a distribution phase, the course went down and starts from 1 July 2019,with an Equilibrium. At the time it was not clear if this was a redistribution phase or possibly an accumulation phase. At point 1 we can see how the price is turned up sharply. That was a crucial indication for me that it might be a stronger resistance zone. On the 5th of July the course at point 2 broke through this zone. He then returned to point 3 and then ran a total of 60 pip down. Then it came back to a Equilibrium. Of course you could have used the candles, to make a guess that you have at point 1 is a strong resistance zone, but this would have been pure speculation. Let's go deeper into the candle and take a closer look.

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On the left side you can see the volume delta, which means in principle the respective winner in the range ask or bid at the respective price level. At point 1 is the point where the price was strongly rejected upwards, this line I have indeed drawn, but had to be confirmed for me yet. A very decisive situation has taken at point A. Here, massive sell orders were settled, which meant that at point B, in the volume delta, an extremely strong negative volume was formed. I marked this zone with a yellow arrow. As there were massive sell orders in the market at point A, I assumed that the price would not move very much above this yellow arrow. At point C, although the course has gone up once (in total only 9 pip) but a very strong downward pressure has given me the information that here a big player pushes the course back down. In the further course, the price has not gone much higher than this yellow resistance zone. On the 5th of July, from the point 2 onwards, the decisive downhill slide was made. At point 2, the resistance zone of point 1 was overcome. This is where very strong sell orders came into the market, which were shown as negative volume at point G in the volume delta. This was the confirmation of my marked the line at point 1. Then the course ran in a rally up to the point 3. That was the zone where you would have gotten into the market well with a stop of one pip. After that there was an unproblematic course of 50 pip down.

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Here we see the same course in the forex market. As I said, one could have guessed that point 1 is a strong resistance zone. The Bioniccandle shows that it was a very strong pullback inside a downwards candle. But unfortunately you can not look so deep into the candle in the Forex market. If you have not already done so, I recommend that you re-work the Post 1008, which details my four important phases. In the Post 1011 I recommended to discuss at the weekend once with the current Equilibrium that currently prevails in the EURUSD. I would first like to go into more detail about the Equilibrium.

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Let's take a closer look at the last accumulation phase in Euro FX. We recognize that our bullish volume at point A was very strong and pushed up the price. After that there was a small re-accumulation phase as you can clearly see in H4. The strong volume at point B signaled that the price will go higher. At point C, the volume has decreased significantly. Nevertheless, the course has gone even higher, please always remember my comparison of the gas pedal (Post 1008). At point D, the decisive turn came because the car driver could no longer power the vehicle could not continue up the mountain. This created another equilibrium or a sideways market. At points E, F and G, you can see that the volume has risen faster in order to drive up the course again. These are typical features of different big players doing their shopping within this market phase, in order to then push the price in their desired direction. I once filtered the volume profile and you see the strongest volume in the orange zones. Interestingly, the strongest volume occurred only in bullish candles.

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For a detailed analysis, the Footprint Chart helps. As I have already described, equilibrium is nothing but a big player shopping trip. A big player is not able to profitably move up or down fast a course. So he has to buy, bid or ask in a sideways phase In such a chart representation you can see exactly, in which price levels which number of Lot was purchased. That gives a general outline of where it could go next.

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As a very helpful tool I use here for the volume delta at point A. This volume delta filters out individual price levels and shows exactly whether the bit or ask are at an advantage. In addition, I am able to analyze individual candles or specific zones. The yellow arrow indicates exactly the candles that I analyzed in this case with the volume delta. I noticed two things.

At point C you will see a strong negative volume delta and at point B a strong positive volume delta. This results in a short-term zone, which must be observed further. The positive volume delta at point B seems to me to be the outstanding force at the moment. However, I was still too few contacts shopped to make a concrete statement.

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This slide looks at the last two days in H4. It can be seen at the points A, B, C and D that the negative volume delta is clearly in the advantage. First let's go back to the forex market.

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In H1, we look at the sideways market, the zone where the big players do their shopping. The point A was a strong resistance for me, because he has turned down the course strongly. Point B is also a strong resistance as he pushed the price higher. Whether the two resistance zones are right I can not say at the moment yet concrete. However, this could result in two scenarios. These scenarios can be found at points C and D. Within this equilibrium there are other resistance zones that could be drawn. For me, the further course of the course from point E (next week) is crucial. I am now waiting for a confirmation, as I explained to you in slide 2 exactly. Crucial here is the high volume, which lies exactly on the resistance zone and this breaks through at the same time. That is not always the case.

Before a big player goes up, he has to signal to everyone that it is actually going down. Next, he has to stop the participants, who suspect that it is going up. So he pushes the course down strong and in the moment where the stops are triggered, there is an additional jump down. As soon as this jump is over, the big player pushes the course higher with a very big market order. If one identifies such a situation and does not know exactly where to get in with a limit order, a buy stop order can help in an emergency. The problem with this is that you may come into the market far too late and thus make significantly less profit. If you set the buy stop order too high, it may well happen that a strong pullback sets in at that moment, which will knock you out.

A strong red candle is not necessarily a signal that the price action is bearish in the future. Maybe only the stops of those who wanted to move up were caught. Likewise, strong green candles need not be an indication that it will go up in the future. That's why you have to look closer into the candle to find out exactly what is going on. Interestingly, you can often see exactly when the stops of individual traders are caught. In fact, each candle is unique, but there are certain structures and patterns within the footprint chart that, if properly identified, will turn the odds in your favor. However, the next few months will still be a good deal of work.

I wish you a successful trade in the next week

best regards

Bionics Aug 12, 2019 10:53am | Post# 1013

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Project 6 first interim conclusion


Hello dear traders,


Over the last few months, I have been specifically addressing the similarities between the EURUSD in the forex market and the euro FX in the futures market.

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We have found that the price movements in the different markets are almost identical, whereby, of course, there are different prices due to the swaps.

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While we only get three data in the forex market, we get four different data in the futures market via the stock exchange. In addition, we have found that the volume data in the forex market is about 80% consistent with the futures data. How much trading transactions have been completed, you can get out only on the exchanges data. Thus, in the forex market, the crucial data we need to trade is only 62.5% correct.

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In the past, I did not bother with the volume data in the forex market because I knew they were wrong in the crucial places. This false information inevitably leads to wrong trading decisions. In the last few months I have been receiving data on the Euro FX in addition to the Forex data. Within that short time, I was able to significantly improve my performance in the forex market. As I already wrote, the odds of winning are 1:19 in the forex market and 1: 6 in the futures market. At the same time, the profits in the Forex market are significantly higher and the risk much lower.

With the stock exchange data you get the possibility to see all buyers and sellers in the order book or in the time & sales list in real time. In addition, they can concretely deal with the topic of volume profiling, order flow trading, foot print charts and the order book.

All readers, who only now in this post, please read first the contributions from No. 967 "forex versus Future" to work through. There, all results are listed once again and the concrete differences are described.

From today's point of view, I can recommend the following recommendation to every Forex trader. Take the right stock market data. In terms of trading, Germany is a real developing country when it comes to training or future brokerage. Although England is the leader in CFDs, America has better offerings in futures brokerage. The requirements in Germany to open a futures account are often outrageous and ineffective. In addition to the Future Data Feed you also need a professional future trading platforms such as Multicharts, ATAS, Volfix, Sierra or others. These professional trading platforms translated the data feeds into a concise format that makes it easy for any trader to quickly process the information.

If you want to combine in Germany a pure data feed from Euro FX with the platform Multicharts you can pay up to $ 300 a month. One or two brokers offer professional platforms starting at 50-60 per month, but the trader has to pay at least 5000 . This is foremost right, because I do not personally recommend a future account under $ 30,000. However, if I only need a pure data feed, this is toexpensive. So I started researching and opted for an American broker AMP futures. In addition to very favorable conditions convinced me also a very extensive offer and the many positive reviews. In order to open an account with AMP, however, you should be able to understand the English language.

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To open an account, you must make a deposit of at least $ 500. That's very little for a futures account. If you extrapolate the $ 500 daily margin into the Euro FX contract, you will find that a leverage of 250 is offered. Micro contacts can be traded from $ 50.

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A data feed in the CME market costs a monthly fee of five dollars, and if you need multiple data feeds at the same time you pay $ 15 a month. I chose CME because I have the Euro FX since 1999 in a chart overview.

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What you are missing now is a professional trading platform that not only provides you the order book but also a footprint chart. If you open a trading account with AMP, you have the possibility to run your data feed for free via the platform Multicharts Net, MT5 or Sierra Chart. You can also switch from one platform to another for free at any time.

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I recommend you to start with Multicharts Net for the beginning, the trading platform is indeed getting used to at the beginning, but you get much better information than in MT5. Multicharts Net usually costs $ 99 per month via AMP futures you get the platform for free.

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As before, the most effective platform for me is ATAS, because it has some interesting algorithms that allow us to identify spoofing, bigtrades and much more, but you pay about $ 80 a month for it. With AMP Futures and the Multicharts Net, you pay a monthly fee of five dollars and thus have a very favorable entry into the stock market world.

Believe me, the stock market data will give you much more information about the market. I am convinced that you can increase your profit rates significantly.

Before you start an account with AMP Futures, I recommend you to open a demo account to first get a feel for the stock market data. Then you can look in peace whether in the stock market data for you are crucial. On YouTube you will find many hints and information about Multicharts Net or AMP. Incidentally, I would recommend this to you in principle, always inform you in detail on the Internet before you decide for something. This will save you a lot of money in the long term.

In our project number 6 we will continue to deal in detail with the Forex and the stock market data in the coming months. The results so far have clearly exceeded my expectations and I am convinced that we are making great strides.

I wish you a successful trading week

best regards

shahed58 Aug 12, 2019 4:41pm | Post# 1014

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Prepare for next week Hello dear traders, {image} In Post # 1008 I reported on the 4 important phases of accumulation, re-accumulation, distribution and re-distribution. We are in an important phase again. {image} Over the past three weeks, the price has fallen from distribution to re-distribution to accumulation. After the accumulation phase, the price has gone up sharply and now we are in a crucial phase again. In principle there are only two possibilities, we are now in a re-accumulation phase, ie. the price will continue to rise. Or we are in...
hi bionics
Congratulations , your content was amazing
What is the easiest way to detect a accumulation or distribution exit?
Exit direction(Up or down) does not matter For me, the exit sign is important for me

Can you guide me how to find the exit sign?
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Bionics Aug 13, 2019 2:55am | Post# 1015

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{quote} hi bionics Congratulations , your content was amazing What is the easiest way to detect a accumulation or distribution exit? Exit direction(Up or down) does not matter For me, the exit sign is important for me Can you guide me how to find the exit sign? {image}
Hello shahd58,

First of all thank you for your kind words and the nice praise for this blog. In my post No. 1008

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12432243

I have already described some things how to roughly distinguish the individual phases.

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First, you have to identify the beginning of a possible accumulation or distribution phase. This can be determined by means of the volume and the price, as the price follows the volume. A big challenge is the fact that each course is unique and therefore you can not create a concrete guide that always applies. It does not always come just before the outbreak to a Stopfishing. Basically, the volume is a key factor to success, , this does not apply to the Forex market, only in the stock market. Some traders work with flags, price patterns or pay attention to closing a candle, which is completely irrelevant in this day and age. The big players know that the small traders are getting closer to you, so you work with all the tricks, to take as few market participants as possible in a breakout.

The equilibrium or the sideways phase is the crucial point. This zone you have to analyze exactly with stock market data. Footprintchart, Volume Delta, Volume Profile, Spoofing Analysis, Bid or Ask Absorption, how many lots does a big player trade at what price level, where does the big trades in the market and a few more points go? In principle, there are no resistance zones, but only an imbalance in the market, the strength of which we must find out to determine a possible turning point. Likewise, there are no false breakouts, as this is always a strategic stopfishing before the course turns in the opposite direction. Unfortunately, the end of a stopfishing is not determinable, because you never know how many traders are being stopped out. Sometimes this is a veritable chain reaction that pushes the course further up or down than thought. Some big players have already fallen into the trap themselves. In the daily chart on EURUSD we are in an interesting sideways phase for 6 days, the range is very large this time and if yesterday's outbreak points down to a re-accumulation will show up as soon as the range is left.

In the coming months, we will deal concretely with Accumulation and Distribution and see many examples. There are some ideas on the internet, but most of them are outdated. This is due to the changed market situation, new strategies of the big players and the high proportion of high-frequency wheels, which leave a completely wrong picture of supply and demand. The big players can be supported by highly complicated algorithms that are not comparable to an unprofessionally created EA. These high-frequency traders work with equilibrium charts in milliseconds, the algorithms find the irregularities within the ticks and immediately inform the corresponding traders. There is no Fibonacci, Moving Average, RSI or MACD in this area. The guys are real world champions with a win rate of 99%, so we hardly have a chance. Therefore, you can not create a basic rule out of the 4 phases that always works, but we will deal with it and take enough time.

I hope I could help you a bit and wish you a very successful trading day

best regards

thelord14 Aug 13, 2019 1:19pm | Post# 1016

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hello sir ...im really glad to find in your blog some information about volume and wyckoff method,
because the volume is my best honest tools for me makes me sight some part of truth what's going on in the market ....
so im gonna show some skills to detect the manipulation from the big playes


my analysis will be about EURUSD h1 between yesterday and today


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yesterday : as in picture ,at point 1 we can see most higher up candle with 222 pips and at point 2 we can see the volume in that candle

today : it happened something noteworthy as we can see in the picture at point 4 and point 6 the volume increases but the up move at point 3 and point 5 are declined...seems like we have kind of stopping moves up in that area and we can see clearly in the point 7 and point 8 volume spike but the spread are declined that was the last chance to moves up and the price try to punching up but without any result we can see the next candle the price crash down - 350 pips

Always I was looking for that kind of level where is the decisive decision to end the manipulation and begin the real movement of the big players ...so what i discovered it's very interesting in this exmple

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as we can see at point A, it's most higher up candle in yesterday
and the point B most higher up candle for currently day
and the point C it's the key level ...why i choise that candle as a key level ,becouse that candle are the most lower price between candle A and C
the result : the price drop down from that level of point C

There is an old saying that “The trend is your friend.” im saying the volume is my friend

Bionics Aug 13, 2019 1:32pm | Post# 1017

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The 500 best at Forex Factory


Hello dear traders,

The Equilibrium, Bioniccandle with Supply and Demand, Accumulation, Re-Accumulation, Distribution and Re-Distribution combined with Footprint Charts, Spoofing Check, Volume Profile, Order Flow of the Time & Sales List and the Order Book are pioneering factors in our project No. 6, to achieve success. This will occupy us for the next few months.

Today, however, I would like to highlight the people who have made Forex Factory the most successful platform in the world in recent years. FF has a traffic of more than 20 million per month and is one of the 1000 largest internet sites in the world. FF has many different trade topics. There are over 65,000 threads with 6,900,000 posts in 9 forums. Assuming that each post contains only 100 words, this results in a total of 6,900,000,000 words. To fully read through FF, you would need almost 7 years without a break. (69,000 books)

In principle, every contributing member has a share in it, but there are members who have been honored in a special way. Nearly 600,000 members are at FF of which 3,364 are high, medium and low impact members. These 3,364 members offer several thousand different systems and strategies, information and knowledge about trading. For that I would like to say thank you at this point, because I know how much work and heart and soul behind it. Of course, there are many contributions at different levels, but everyone struggles to do their best. There is so much knowledge, in all these posts and who finds nothing here has not searched thoroughly enough.

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Members who regularly post and communicate with other members are Impact members. They are marked with a rhombus.

Red = High Impact Member = Top 0.11% total 672 members

Orange = Medium Impact Member = Top 0.17% total 1,010 members

Yellow = Low Impact Member = Top 0.28% Total 1,682 members

Of nearly 600,000 total members, these 3364 impact members are a very special elite of analysts, traders or programmers. These special people provide an enormous transfer of knowledge within this platform and account for just 0.5% of all members. They are committed and ready to share their knowledge.

Today, I would like to highlight the high impact members, which has a 0.11% share. On the right side, from 2004-2019, you can see the number of high impact members who came in each year. That in recent years less high impact member have come to it is completely normal, since it takes a while, until someone becomes high impact member. In addition, there are still 172 members missing from the list. In this respect, significantly more will be added in the next few years.

Overall, there are 672 high impact member, however, you will find only the 500 largest members at Forex Factory. At least 65 subscribers (without buddies) must follow a high impact member so that they appear in the ranking. This is not always fair, because even people who are not on the list, may achieve above-average performance. For example, a high impact member has 15 buddies and 52 subscribers, but does not appear in the list, because only 65 or more subscribers are counted. Since July 2011, he has written a total of nearly 1000 articles, which corresponds to ten contributions per month. He would have appeared in the ranking.

In the following lists I once made an interesting compilation, that I would like to introduce to you now.

Basically, I'd like to point out that I've used the values from Forex Factory and everyone has access to those values. The values were voluntarily provided by each member. I do not know if the values are correct on the part of Forex Factory, so I apologize from the beginning if there are any mistakes.

The rankings they see in detail do not say anything about the quality of a member or about his system with which he works successfully. The existing values that everyone can see were only filtered and edited. If someone is ranked 30th in the rankings, it may look like he's the worst, but let's not forget there are still 600,000 members behind him. So we're talking about the best 500 people, who follow just under 100,000 subscribers. That's a special achievement. When I speak of performance, I mean the willingness to share his knowledge with others. This willingness is particularly high among these high impact members. It does not matter which strategy he works with, the willingness to help others is crucial. I think that is a very special achievement deserves a high recognition.

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At point A, you will see the 30 oldest members of FF, which does not mean the age but the duration of the membership. At point B you will see a leaderboard when you add the buddies and the subscribers together. A buddie is obtained if two subscribers follow each other, in that case one would actually have to count these buddies among the subscribers. The point C shows only the number of buddies and at point D only the subscribers are displayed.

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At point A you will see a ranking with the average monthly contributions a high impact member has published. In the first place stands Newstand. Newsstand is a username managed by Fair Economy's internal news team. The team submits stories from quality news sources around the world, with a focus on breaking news, quality analysis, entertainment, and stories related to the economic calendar. I think the great information, they deserve to be released too. The overall average of all 500 members is 37 contributions per month. At point B you can see the cumulative number of posts since the start of membership. Point C shows the average number of subscribers who joined the member each month. The average of all 500 members here is 2.3 subscribers who join a high impact member per month. Under point D you can see the latest high impact member. The youngest member became a high impact member in December 2018. However still 172 members are missing in the list. From this list you can see very well that engage many people to make it easier for young traders to get started.

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First, let's look at members who have been with us for at least ten years. What I find impressive is the consistent performance that these members have achieved over the years. I am convinced that they have given many traders a good basis to be more successful. I think that deserves special thanks.

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In this slide I divided the high impact members into different years. The number of subscribers, shows interest in a particular topic. The subscribers only follow you if the topic helps them. These members listed here have also helped many traders with their contributions.

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Here you can see the contributions the high impact members has written, divided into different years.

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We have three different values, the number of days since someone is member, the number of subscribers and buddies that follow him, and the number of posts the member has written over the years. The number of days of membership has been multiplied by a factor of three, as it has the highest priority for me. The number of subscribers was multiplied by a factor of two and the number of contributions by a factor of one. This results in a key figure marked in yellow. These are, in my opinion, the most diligent and dedicated members of Forex Factory. Out of a total of 500 seats I am on the 492 place. Diligence does not seem to be my strength. As I said, this ranking is not a statement about the quality that individual members publish, but a calculation of the quantity. No more and no less.

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Here we see another 80 diligent members.

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The 500 High Impact members come from 48 different countries, with the US and England leading the way. That is clear, as these two countries are also leaders in the field of stock exchange. Personally, I find it impressive that so many people from different countries communicate with each other to help themselves in this toughest market.

At this point I would like to thank all impact members again, because the knowledge you find here is an incredible treasure and I am impressed by the readiness that these people pass on their knowledge. In this respect, the ranking lists should honor these people and not upset them. It's not about having the best strategy or earning the most money, but having a high willingness to share your knowledge with others. And that is far more valuable than all the money in the world. Thank you for this commitment.

best regards

shahed58 Aug 13, 2019 4:36pm | Post# 1018

{quote} Hello shahd58, First of all thank you for your kind words and the nice praise for this blog. In my post No. 1008 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12432243 I have already described some things how to roughly distinguish the individual phases. {image} First, you have to identify the beginning of a possible accumulation or distribution phase. This can be determined by means of the volume and the price, as the price follows the volume. A big challenge is the fact that each course is unique and therefore you...
Thanks for your honest sentences

thelord14 Aug 14, 2019 1:52pm | Post# 1019

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looks like AAA Bionic Power x Candle 1.3 working greatful with volume ...that i can see each movement separately

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what happened today in EURUSD H1 the same manipulation with same principle ...yesterday at point 1 up candle 211 pips if we compare that candle with candle of today we gonna find at point 3 up candle 180 pips seems we have a decline in pips but the volume more higher than the candle at point 1 ....i dont forget the key level at point B ... as we can see the same manipulation and same principle

Bionics Aug 14, 2019 2:55pm | Post# 1020

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[quote=thelord14;12442056]looks like AAA Bionic Power x Candle 1.3 working greatful with volume ..

Hello thelord14,

First of all very much thanks for your detailed contributions to the market situation. I am glad that the Bioniccandle and my auxiliary indicators help you. I myself have acted successfully on this principle for many years. A little tip about that.

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At point B you can see how a strong movement goes up. Every strong movement breaks through a strong resistance. This resistance I have often attached to the previous candle in the pullback. The support becomes a resistance and after the course has gone down again, we had a resistance at this level. This allows you to significantly reduce your zones.
This still works in the forex market, but I was able to improve my quotas by 35% in a few weeks due to the stock market data. And I think there is still a lot of room for improvement.

I will publish a detailed report tomorrow.

Best regards


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