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-   -   Martingale Calculation EA (also reverse martingale) (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=727698)

vortexpme Jan 4, 2018 11:42am | Post# 1

Martingale Calculation EA (also reverse martingale)
 
Hello Forum i saw there are a lot of threads of martingale yet but i couldnt find what im searching for, thats why i opened a new tread

if its offending cause it was posted already please delete it (@administrators) im just looking for a way to solve my problems regards

ok let s start:

i did an EA that works very simple but effective
it opens a trade in the opposite direction of the last candle (closing price) on 5 min chart


so i have 50 % / 50 % win loss rate

now im looking for a way to make this strategy profitable by Money Management


i use MM with following rules: reverse martingale at the beginning of all trades, covered by a usual martingale !


so to speak if i win i double up (positive trades) and if i loose i double up (neg. trades) from then on

an example would look like this:

reverse martingale attemps: 5
martingale attemps: 5
lot multiplier reverse martingale: 2.0
lot multiplier martingale: 2.0

1$ 2$ -4$ 8$
1$ -2$ -$4 8$

would look like this




thats the strategie i use! the problem is !!! :

AS LONG AS I DONT KNOW how to size those martingales in the right position, it will be GAMBLING!!

so i have the: percantage win rate, the stop loss / take profit , the multipliers, and the attempse in a row

does anyone know how to position size martingale right ? to get an expectation which is positive ?
or how to combine those parameters right ? to know if im gonna be profitable or not ?





EXAMPLE ONLY from my side ( and how far i have come) [maybe you can add up ]
if u would use stop loss / take profit 1:7 ratio 10 pipps to 70 pipps and say reverse martingale multiplier 2.0 and usual martingale multiplier 7.0, attemps for reverse martigale is 7 attemps for usual martingale is 4 u will in best case be profitable cause

1$ 2$ 4$ 8$ 16$ -112$ 112$ that means the trade stops and starts from the beginning and you took (1+2+4+8-112+112) = (15$)

so if any one is able with does rules of reverse martingale and martingale to set a system up which is profitable or know how to show the calculation why it cant be profitable i would be glad!

there is a math behind but i can t find it nowhere for now-.-

thanks forum

tzamo Jan 4, 2018 10:09pm | Post# 2

Hi, I seen this strategy somewhere. It works when there is no broker fee and 0 spread. Your profit is eaten by broker and spread and it can go very badly if something moves 200-300 pips in one direction if you have such small stop loss. Need to be careful with this, I will find where I found it and post you the link.
Can you share the EA you make?
Kind Regards

Tazmo

vortexpme Jan 8, 2018 12:38pm | Post# 3

hello tzamo

yeah thanks for your answer.

i would share it if we find some logical ways to improve of course then

im still looking for some good ways to trade. i connected with a mathematician professor on facebook and he told me the calculation for several steps is difficult to define. 1:1 is okay

rapidace Jan 25, 2018 6:55pm | Post# 4

hello tzamo yeah thanks for your answer. i would share it if we find some logical ways to improve of course then im still looking for some good ways to trade. i connected with a mathematician professor on facebook and he told me the calculation for several steps is difficult to define. 1:1 is okay
Your logical way of calculation is correct but the key is %, the win ratio.
I actually had a similar thread and spent about months of searching 95%+ trades from history data, yet there's a fix % of losses out from the 95% trades.

Say, you have 1,000 95% win rate trades on 2016, when you compare the data with 2017, 1,000 is now 920.
Also, if you're wondering, it is in 10:1 risk to reward ratio.

My logic is to multiply the account equity first implementing high win rate, then split into smaller trades, rolling it out again.

For example, split them into 10 trades. Run each individually, like a race.
Eliminate until you get 2 trades left, split them into 10, and re-run again.

If you're able to get 60% win rate out from 1:1, this system will run profitable long term.

As for spread, look for ECN broker.

So, I believe a risk reward ratio of 5:1, a break even ratio of 80%, are more likely to win constantly, but for recovery... If you implement martingale..
Unless you're day trader, that can trade 100s of trade a day, I wouldn't surprise seeing $100 becomes $1,000 in a day, then boom.


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