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-   -   Proof That Forex is Random video (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=714084)

pereiraalex Nov 16, 2017 1:36pm | Post# 121

And the content of the video with which you started off the thread is no more than the grotesquely deluded ramblings of an innumerate idiot who doesn't define his terms, and clearly doesn't have "logic" or "reasoning" in his skill-set. If you're going to be fooled by nonsense like that, trading isn't for you!

I was just here for the comments ( queue michael jackson eating popcorns ) .... but ... with that marketing, YOU ARE FORCING ME TO WATCH THE VIDEO !

jmn5611 Nov 16, 2017 1:44pm | Post# 122

{quote} I agree. If you claim the market is not random then you somehow know of the forces at work that determine what will happen next. If not, you might be successfully trading a random market until your system stops working when the law of large numbers kick in.
Now, here is the catch.

Price action strategies will always work as long as the traders equation is adhered to, because humans have a need to identify patterns. Humans think these patterns are real, even if they are not.

atheer1 Nov 16, 2017 1:50pm | Post# 123

Well it is all about having a reason to pull the trigger.......Random or not does not mean anything.........it is enough to know that it is real and deal with the reality........

fx75 Nov 16, 2017 1:51pm | Post# 124

its not random at all !
but greed and leverage makes it really hard to win it ..

atheer1 Nov 16, 2017 1:56pm | Post# 125

All I know that my nonrandom trading can deal with this supposed randomness.............

Mr.Xau Nov 16, 2017 5:41pm | Post# 126

market are not random. they're just..... dynamic....

jmn5611 Nov 16, 2017 6:34pm | Post# 127

All I know that my nonrandom trading can deal with this supposed randomness.............
Bollocks. You trading is random because you are trading in a random environment. If you were not you would have no losses. Consider that.

newbegger Nov 16, 2017 7:20pm | Post# 128

{quote} And yet you can still tell day from night. Therefore, seeing the sun itself is not necessary as you can see it's obvious effects, and those effects are predictable as long as the earth maintains it's orbit. When you speak of cloudy days, you are only speaking of variables in the randomness that make it appear nonrandom.
I will agree with you. The markets are random. For You.

So... You will eventually lose all of your money as a trader. The only way you can make money in Forex is to become the house. That means you need to be the broker who collects the spread so that instead of 50/50 on the win/lose you have a 49/49 on the win/lose and you collect the 2%.

newbegger Nov 16, 2017 9:59pm | Post# 129

Since so many of you don't know the definition of random, then please tell me what my next trade will be? If you know the answer, the market is not random. Good Luck. For the rest of us that understand probability math, we know every tick is random. That doesn't mean the market cannot be traded. The "artist" traders will draw lines connecting dead trades and assume the market will repeat the last trade and stay within the lines. Those are the notorious 95% losers. The "math" traders will use sample size to create patterns that they use to develop...
I am curious what you are waiting for? If you waiting for something to happen, that is not random.

Trader-Waldo Nov 16, 2017 11:27pm | Post# 130

{quote} All the data is random, but it is possible to group it. ....
do you have example for this? interpretation of data by market makers matters and that is shown in price.

...Think of it like voting. You have no idea who voted for who, but over time the results lean one direction or the other. Unless you think voting isn't random either.
market has a way to show on chart clearly vote of confidence. Do you know to recognize it?

jmn5611 Nov 17, 2017 2:58am | Post# 131

{quote} I will agree with you. The markets are random. For You. So... You will eventually lose all of your money as a trader. The only way you can make money in Forex is to become the house. That means you need to be the broker who collects the spread so that instead of 50/50 on the win/lose you have a 49/49 on the win/lose and you collect the 2%.
That is pretty much how I do it. I have trades sitting on both sides of the markets and when all of you hot shots make your predictions I will eventually collect.

atheer1 Nov 17, 2017 5:20am | Post# 132

1 Attachment(s)
The_Misbehavior_of_Markets.pdf

newbegger Nov 17, 2017 6:01pm | Post# 133

{quote} That is pretty much how I do it. I have trades sitting on both sides of the markets and when all of you hot shots make your predictions I will eventually collect.
So you are the broker! You collect the spread rather than pay the spread. Good way for you to beat the markets. The way you think, it's the only way you can win because you trade based on coin flip.

jmn5611 Nov 17, 2017 6:43pm | Post# 134

{quote} So you are the broker! You collect the spread rather than pay the spread. Good way for you to beat the markets. The way you think, it's the only way you can win because you trade based on coin flip.
I think that to have a market, each transaction is a coin flip. If it were not it would be modeled sooner or later and exploited to the degree that no one would take the other side. So I keep myself bracketed in the market?

gravitist Nov 17, 2017 7:08pm | Post# 135

Price is not predictable. Period. In fact, the market would not even exist if prices were predictable. If everybody knew what the "right" price of a commodity should be, the price would go immediately to that price. You couldn't buy because no one would sell to you. This is basic Econ 101 stuff. Honestly, I shouldn't have to be explaining this to forex traders. Every trade has two sides - a buyer and a seller. If one side isn't willing, there is no trade. That's how it works, folks. Now, sadly, there are some people here at FF who will tell gullible newbies that economic laws don't apply and one can "predict" the market ( especially if you buy their magic indicator or EA). Such people are either deluded or they are just SCAMMERS preying on the naive. Again, if I'm wrong then please show me a redacted account statement with all the billions in profits . Of course these people can't show me such a statement. If they actually believe their delusions, I can only say they've never stepped foot into an economics classroom ( except possibly to sweep it ).

goose4 Nov 17, 2017 7:17pm | Post# 136

Price is not predictable. Period. In fact, the market would not even exist if prices were predictable. If everybody knew what the "right" price of a commodity should be, the price would go immediately to that price. You couldn't buy because no one would sell to you. This is basic Econ 101 stuff. Honestly, I shouldn't have to be explaining this to forex traders. Every trade has two sides - a buyer and a seller. If one side isn't willing, there is no trade. That's how it works, folks. Now, sadly, there are some people here at FF who will tell gullible...

Yeah I agree with you. The only member who has his eyes wide open on this thread.

Its like this trading legend called james here. He then made his money with a private forum. Over 2000 members paying over 150 dollars a month. If you go to his private forum page one of the first videos he has is he says he learned how to predict price 90% of the time (go and check it out) He had a agenda when he joined forex factory.Smartest member. He says he wants to give back for good karma and using that USA religion slang,yeah right. In terms of this forum he is a god. He did not make his money from trading. its still going strong.It shows you the delusion on this forum.

There are some very rich forex traders but they trade for banks.There are always the exception. Guys like jim rogers.

I mean people really believe in things like Elliot wave.

Buffet once put it more simpler - if you try to turn over price chart you essentially get the same

MoneyZilla Nov 18, 2017 2:04am | Post# 137

These screenshots are straight from my trading logs. Notice the major turning points highlighted in blue!
Is this a custom indicator or it could be found publicly? It seems super easy to trade it...

Ace66 Nov 18, 2017 2:26am | Post# 138

{quote} Is this a custom indicator or it could be found publicly? It seems super easy to trade it...
can't recognize that is just a moving average with levels ... like 100 -100 200 -200 lol funny.....

asgcorp Nov 18, 2017 2:43am | Post# 139

next time you claim that markets are a random walk, I suggest you get yourself familiar with track record of Ren Tech LLC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies

asgcorp Nov 18, 2017 2:55am | Post# 140

1 Attachment(s)
weekly % change norm distribution for past 20 weeks for Apple INC stock. Now please go ahead and tell me that this is random.
It's always easier to claim that it's random rather than put in the hard work and prove otherwise.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 36 KB


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