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auricforecas Nov 1, 2017 10:45pm | Post# 1

Auric forecasts
 
TP 1.1630

auricforecas Nov 1, 2017 11:13pm | Post# 2

DISCLAIMER:

PURPOSE of this trading journal is just that, a journal. Timestamped trades. I don't want to justify, explain or defend my trades - in an argument way (at least not at this point). If you can find something useful, fine, if not, please pass... I will post (some of) the trades that I open and after they hit TP or SL I might comment something in a way why it took certain time, what (I believe) were events that directly influenced it etc...


FIRST POSTED trade (above) in this thread.
This first/opening trade in this trade is TP only - price prediction/forecast, in the future trades I will most likely add SLs also, so it will be more "complete" for daytrading purposes etc... About my general trend, I posted elsewhere already, but let's say/state it here again.

TREND
In my opinion EUR/USD will (slowly) decline for the next 3months after which I would reevaluate the whole situation. So I'm not saying the trend might change/reverse after that time (3months), just that I will reevaluate, although I think we are looking for at least 3months downtrend if not 6-12. More data in the beginning of February 2018 if things go well.

TRADE DATA
In this first as in my others posts in this ff forum I provided TPs only but understand for "complete" trade the (max) SL (estimation) is "wanted" by most of you. I also believe TPs itself might/must be valuable (if hit) for some of you, specially longterm traders etc...

TRADE TYPES
I will also post if I believe the trade is scalpable, tradable etc.. by posting SLs this would be implied in the ratio itself but will also make it clear, specially if I'll post only TP. Trade exposure, risk management (ratio, leverage...) etc... is up to you.

So here we go. Above is my first trade in this journal, will post comment once it hits. Since I only provided TP this time.. I'm not uncertain that it will hit, the only question is how fast. At later trades/posts it would be much quicker to see due to the SL limit.... Let's start. And just to be clear.. al the negative people, trolls etc.. pass... There are other threads for this, this is just a pure (timestamped) journal... but if anyone likes to comment or ask, feel free...

P.S. I will most likely add (dedicated) Trade Explorer (later) for this journal only, so I will trade (in it) everything that I post in this thread, so you will have a clear picture instantly/interactive. But this will most likely to happen next year. Should above trade hit in the next 12hours I will comment it, otherwise it will have to wait till I come back. I won't be on this forum for quite some time now due to different tasks and because I already posted the whole (3month) trend, we now must wait how it goes and to see in retrospect should I continue with this forecasts... so till then... and also, I will decide in the meantime which/what (type of) trades/accounts/strategies should I post after this timeframe is over.

auricforecas Nov 2, 2017 7:46am | Post# 3

TP 1.1630
success, TP hit

Very clean... although it took 6hours, there was very little counter movement (10PIPS), before it hits TP (25 PIPS), so very tradable in retrospect, to say the least.
And also, the TP level was a good choice since it bounced after and till now, 3hours after the hit, still haven't reached lower position of that of a TP's candle.

OK, the opening trade was a (rather quick) success... More to follow next year, if things go well, until then, you have my trend forecast...

auricforecas Nov 3, 2017 10:52pm | Post# 4

That's it guys, see you in February 2018... if things go well. You have plenty of data (trend) from me till then. Use it wisely.

pandey Nov 4, 2017 1:46pm | Post# 5

in feb 2018?

auricforecas Nov 4, 2017 2:34pm | Post# 6

in feb 2018?
Yes, about 3months from now. Have to work on something and I cannot be distracted. At that time, should things go well, I will also decide what kinds of things can/should I post here. What kind/type of trade explorers, if any... etc... or just some posts with trade data (TP and possible max SL), trends...

And also, you have the trend from me, now we can only wait and then see if it was worth it, now waiting is

auricforecas Nov 5, 2017 3:00pm | Post# 7

Well I'm wondering, should I post one more for the road... markets seems to build up for upspike opening... will decide few moments/minutes after market "opens", so in the next 2hours.

auricforecas Nov 5, 2017 4:45pm | Post# 8

Well I'm wondering, should I post one more for the road... markets seems to build up for upspike opening... will decide few moments/minutes after market "opens", so in the next 2hours.
Will have to confirm after market opens in 15min... but I will most probably set BUY, TP 20-25PIPs... confidently.

auricforecas Nov 5, 2017 4:59pm | Post# 9

{quote} Will have to confirm after market opens in 15min... but I will most probably set BUY, TP 20-25PIPs... confidently.
SO here we go...

EUR/USD... BUY, TP 1.1635

pandey Nov 6, 2017 4:03am | Post# 10

{quote} SO here we go... EUR/USD... BUY, TP 1.1635

it will be easy for everyone to see the performance, if you mention the current price level and TP level when you declare any trade position... hope to get something worth trying,,,,

auricforecas Nov 6, 2017 2:02pm | Post# 11

{quote} it will be easy for everyone to see the performance, if you mention the current price level and TP level when you declare any trade position... hope to get something worth trying,,,,
Noted. Will do so in the future

auricforecas Nov 7, 2017 5:05pm | Post# 12

{quote} SO here we go... EUR/USD... BUY, TP 1.1635
Still didn't hit, surprisingly, it started with UP opening this week, but too little... There are two possible explanations for this... Either there is a chain of negative events for the EUR, holding the retracement (temporary) down... or it is very week, very hard to lift it again... I believe in the first explanation.

Although I have made my EUR/USD trend (bearish) statement many times in many posts, blog and in profile, I still firmly believe the price will rebound to at least 1.1635 (price now 1.1586) at least once, before the downtrend continues.

Will respond when the TP hits, if it hits in the next few days while I will still be here due to some delay...

auricforecas Nov 9, 2017 3:15pm | Post# 13

{quote} Still didn't hit, surprisingly, it started with UP opening this week, but too little... There are two possible explanations for this... Either there is a chain of negative events for the EUR, holding the retracement (temporary) down... or it is very week, very hard to lift it again... I believe in the first explanation. Although I have made my EUR/USD trend (bearish) statement many times in many posts, blog and in profile, I still firmly believe the price will rebound to at least 1.1635 (price now 1.1586) at least once, before the downtrend...
Finally reached 1.1635.... It went south after the original post regarding 1.1635 but it reached TP. Definitely not good for scalpers but for those of you who might appreciate long(er)term...

Again, I will post TPs and probably SLs next year, if things go well.

So hopefully see you in 2018. You have my trend forecast till then.

And don't forget to vote! I will most probably post the TA with most votes.

pandey Nov 10, 2017 3:25am | Post# 14

what is TA?

profitfarmer Nov 10, 2017 5:10am | Post# 15

what is TA?
short for Technical Analysis

auricforecas Nov 10, 2017 5:36pm | Post# 16

{quote} short for Technical Analysis
Sorry for the confusion. I will be posting (live/forecasts of) TA - TradeExplorer that will get the most votes. I would like to know what kind would be the most interesting for you.

And yes, profifarmer is correct, TA is "defined" as Technical Analysis (Glossaries & Common Acronym List), so it was my mistake to confuse you.

So the (trading) week is over. I have done what I had to do. See you in FEB now, should things go well.

auricforecas Nov 12, 2017 5:11pm | Post# 17

Hello!

Not quite gone yet, unfortunately another massive delay... hopefully I'll be done this week... Anyway...
Here's another trade since I'm here... I would be confident to SHORT EUR/USD (for 20PIPs+) any moment now.. just after the spread settles down and the markets shows itself...

I will post TP SELL position (price) shortly... will edit this same post... AFTER it hits (TP), I will comment and then I'm really gone till mid FEB18

UPDATE/EDIT #1: Will enter position any moment now.. will let you know shortly...

UPDATE/EDIT #2: Just entered position TP 1.16393 (price now 1.1660)

UPDATE/EDIT #3: Distance to TP atm.. 20PIPs+... Will post another/last post/comment (this year) after it hits! It is a SELL.

auricforecas Nov 13, 2017 4:28pm | Post# 18

Hello! Not quite gone yet, unfortunately another massive delay... hopefully I'll be done this week... Anyway... Here's another trade since I'm here... I would be confident to SHORT EUR/USD (for 20PIPs+) any moment now.. just after the spread settles down and the markets shows itself... I will post TP SELL position (price) shortly... will edit this same post... AFTER it hits (TP), I will comment and then I'm really gone till mid FEB18 UPDATE/EDIT #1: Will enter position any moment now.. will let you know shortly... UPDATE/EDIT #2: Just entered...
It was a success... TP hit. It was a good hit, even (barely) scalable, looking in retrospect. It took a little longer than expected but not too long. What's surprising is that it followed the model with the same decline/slope/derivative but with (parallel) offset, and the second surprise is that it was almost exact "local minimum" before it bounced beyond scalpability.

So here it is... So far all my TPs that I posted in this journal were hit in relative good time. I haven't (yet) posted SLs as well.. will consider this next year.

For the rest... You have my trend forecast which I will extend a little.. So here it is again... I believe in dowtrend for eur/usd for at least the next 3 months which is till mid FEB 2018. See you then should things go well...

Maybe I was just lucky... Time will tell (you) soon enough.

Till then...

auricforecas Nov 14, 2017 7:54pm | Post# 19

Me again I must comment last trade... It was extreme local precision/luck... because it bounced as a mofo after... I'm considering posting one more trade... For the last day, as you have seen, there was incredible buildup/push up... Since it was a buildup before... it might went higher than it would have otherwise... fastforward... I'm thinking on shorting another 25PIPs for the road.... Will post today...

auricforecas Nov 14, 2017 8:02pm | Post# 20

Me again I must comment last trade... It was extreme local precision/luck... because it bounced as a mofo after... I'm considering posting one more trade... For the last day, as you have seen, there was incredible buildup/push up... Since it was a buildup before... it might went higher than it would have otherwise... fastforward... I'm thinking on shorting another 25PIPs for the road.... Will post today...
Ok here it is.. Just entered the order... It seemed IDEAL entry point... I am very confident to short 25PIPs... TP 1.1765 (price now 1.1791)... So you can get cca 25PIPs out of this... SL is up to you, for now


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