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Ata-Turkoglu Sep 16, 2017 9:11am | Post# 1

EURUSD Only
 
Welcome to "EURUSD Only"

Every trader loves to post his/her ideas and interact with other traders during exciting, frustrating and most of the times boring trading hours. I believe that the overall subconscious goal is to feel surrounded by living, breathing, real people.. friends.. like-minded personalities who knowingly or unknowingly help each other not to feel isolated from daily life. Otherwise, we would just sit in front of a screen for hours and have conversations with our inner voices, right? That sounds very pathetic to me, to be honest.

But luckily we have many places on the internet where we can share and collaborate such ideas and this thread has been created to become one of them, but with one big difference: "GOOD WILL", "PEACE", "KINDNESS", "COLLABORATION", "SHARING & CARING", "FAMILY", "SUPPORTING", "RESPECT" are the major characteristics what is supposed to define this thread.

That being said, here are the 3 simple rules we want you to follow. Nothing more!

  1. Members must post ideas and charts only and solely for the EURUSD currency! (DXY, USD-Index is allowed with the condition to always relate them to EURUSD)
  2. Hatred, fights, patronizing others, causing endless and stressful debates are definitely forbidden! (Trolling and toxic behavior will not be tolerated!)
  3. Please use only "standard size" fonts and don't go too crazy with text colors."

Looking from the bright side, besides trading related topics, all members are free to:

  1. Share jokes and silly ideas, photos, YouTube links, etc, which they think would break the ice and put a smile on everyone's face.
  2. Share constructive criticism about other members' posts.
  3. Talk about their private life, may it happiness or difficulties, that they think would allow creating bonds between members.
  4. Members might get angry and curse or even offend other members if you are having a bad trading day (but they have to put out that they are having a bad day and we expect them to apologize asap once they cool down). All members will tolerate such behavior for the sake of creating a family here.
  5. You can chitchat in different languages here and there as long as the content follows the 2 simple rules mentioned earlier and as long as you don't over-flood the thread with your talk.
  6. Teach newbies and share educational information (as long as you don't over-flood the thread on busy hours).
  7. Post about fundamentals and politics as long as it is related to EURUSD.
  8. Post ideas around EURUSD from other sources, as long as you mention the source or provide the link to it.

NEW RULE (Added 18.06.2018): Posting correlations with charts is now allowed.

  1. Correlations must include reasoning and a chart to show exactly where the correlation is. If there is no mentioning of both pairs in correlation the post will be disliked (hidden) by admin.

I will personally put my best effort to keep this place together. Members who can't even follow 3 simple rules despite a few warnings will be banned.

To learn more about the terms I repeatedly use please visit my other thread: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=837317

Happy Trading and Green Pips to All


Venomousssss Sep 16, 2017 9:13am | Post# 2

Nice

jmmn Sep 16, 2017 9:38am | Post# 3

Good!

Not-KPMG Sep 16, 2017 10:15am | Post# 4

Good idea and seems promising.
I'll drop by sometime.

Idea buy 1.1940-10 which is above trendline or channel.
SL I'm not sure of..... Depends on news etc. 1.1890...?

TP high like 1.2090.
My long term is 1.2450 to 2600

littlemole85 Sep 16, 2017 10:37am | Post# 5

Like it! eU thread is full of GU,UJ posts which is Ok as correlations can be important.But the initiative is good!

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 16, 2017 10:39am | Post# 6

Good idea and seems promising. I'll drop by sometime. Idea buy 1.1940-10 which is above trendline or channel. SL I'm not sure of..... Depends on news etc. 1.1890...? TP high like 1.2090. My long term is 1.2450 to 2600
Thanks to Venomousssss, jmmn, littlemole85 and Not-KPMG for their early responses. I want to share my special thanks in advance to all future members who will post here. Starting from Monday, hopefully, I will also begin to share my charts and ideas only on this thread. I hope we can create a family of good willed traders here.

And Not-KPMG, thanks for your idea (and a bonus thanks for being also the very first on this thread who shared an idea). I too want to see if candles on hourly chart can stay above 1.1860/90. After market opening I expect a retest towards that zone. The hourly looks temporarily bearish to me. I will be able to speak more after some analysis which I plan to finish on Sunday night. Until then stay blessed all.

Happy Weekends

Traderview Sep 16, 2017 10:51am | Post# 7

Hi,

The friday move was completely related to the POUND and BOE rate hike expectations. These events put all the currency pairs to move up to get the pound value higher. If you look at it carefully the EURUSD didnt move anywhere the whole week. It was trading around the same 1.1940 for a whole week. Moved up and down. there was some very good data from the US last week which will ultimately support the inflation and wages. Fed and ECB minuted going to have high impact on the dollar bulls. ECB minutes will show the high concern by the officials over the steep appreciation of EURO. This will put the euro area inflation to lower pace.

This euro appreciation is very bad for germany since it is export economy. This will also impact other countries by lowering investments in the whole region. The euro need more high impactful data to go beyond 1.21. It'll most likely be by end of the year. We might see pullback up to 1.17. News from some big banks indicate the euro will move above 1.20 after the ecb tapering. It will be by the december.

priceaction7 Sep 16, 2017 12:09pm | Post# 8

Joined

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 16, 2017 12:11pm | Post# 9

Hi, The friday move was completely related to the POUND and BOE rate hike expectations. These events put all the currency pairs to move up to get the pound value higher. If you look at it carefully the EURUSD didnt move anywhere the whole week. It was trading around the same 1.1940 for a whole week. Moved up and down. there was some very good data from the US last week which will ultimately support the inflation and wages. Fed and ECB minuted going to have high impact on the dollar bulls. ECB minutes will show the high concern by the officials over...
Thanks for your input Traderview.. Imho, odds are that this whole "not moving anywhere the whole week" situation you just mentioned shows a major decision will be made on higher timeframes in coming days/weeks..

What I am focused on is 1.2010... that level +-20 pips seems to be a major resistant price level that eventually will push price back down in coming months. I don't believe it will break soon. At least not with the first retest that is coming. Again will share more about this on Sunday, just wanted to add my view based on your thoughts. Many thanks..

Happy Weekend

TudorIoan Sep 16, 2017 12:13pm | Post# 10

OMG, just love your rules, the most "democratic" thread!!!
Congratz for your new thread, Ata! (missed your absence, hope all well)
I hate FOMC weeks. I guess euro will range a little ahead Fed, dunno, not sure, I'll post more on Monday
Nice weekend!

Ron25 Sep 16, 2017 12:59pm | Post# 11

Thanks Ata! This is very nice.

akiga Sep 16, 2017 1:00pm | Post# 12

Hi everyone, Nice rules Ata.
Looking at Eur/usd H1 Chart the pair is head for 1.2050+ ahead for the FOMC on Wednesday.
Since ECB do not want it to go above 1.2100 in the short term (or that is what I think giving the timely intervention after Non-farm) I see 1.1750 after FOMC.

Green pips to all

deltaone Sep 16, 2017 1:57pm | Post# 13

hi Ata,

was machst Du nur: Startest am ersten Tag des Oktoberfests (an dem es auch in Berlin das erste Hacker-Pschorr Märzen gibt) einen neuen Thread?!?

if there´s one to keep a place like this peace- and meaningful, it´s you. your rules for live calls fit my way of posting. subscribed.

all the best
d1

denisius Sep 16, 2017 2:21pm | Post# 14

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I am in Ata. Thanks . Long time no see brother. Take a look. Something i am working on.
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cabbiefx Sep 16, 2017 2:21pm | Post# 15

My outlook for the coming week: I am considering Long entry near 1.1920, targeting 1.2150. I expect that eu will move up and make a new high on Wednesday, the 20th on the FOMC news. To me it does not look like 1.2096 is the final to of this uptrend, there was a reasonable pullback from there, I also believe that the cable shall pull the eu up.

Mhosseini83 Sep 16, 2017 3:41pm | Post# 16

{quote} Thanks to Venomousssss, jmmn, littlemole85 and Not-KPMG for their early responses. I want to share my special thanks in advance to all future members who will post here. Starting from Monday, hopefully, I will also begin to share my charts and ideas only on this thread. I hope we can create a family of good willed traders here. And Not-KPMG, thanks for your idea (and a bonus thanks for being also the very first on this thread who shared an idea). I too want to see if candles on hourly chart can stay above 1.1860/90. After market opening...
Joined

go for it.

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 16, 2017 3:46pm | Post# 17

hi Ata, was machst Du nur: Startest am ersten Tag des Oktoberfests (an dem es auch in Berlin das erste Hacker-Pschorr Märzen gibt) einen neuen Thread?!? if there´s one to keep a place like this peace- and meaningful, it´s you. your rules for live calls fit my way of posting. subscribed. all the best d1
Lol, I totally forgot that until you mentioned it buddy.. Happy Oktoberfest then... Unknowingly I picked a "happy festival" day to start a positive thread. I think then luck must be with us.. thanks for your positive post and for subscribing..

P.S.: And it's not me.. it's all of YOU my friends.. only working together we can turn this place into a productive environment.. all members of this fresh family matter to me.. each one of you will be embraced as an important piece of this thread.. welcome and enjoy the party!

Happy Weekends to All

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 16, 2017 3:59pm | Post# 18

I am in Ata. Thanks . Long time no see brother. Take a look. Something i am working on. {image}
First, thanks for your contribution brother..

I think you believe too that after market opening, price probably will retest lower levels first. From your chart I can see that whether it is your yellow TL or the red MA you too first will wait to see what will happen once/if price goes back to 1.1880 levels but you have the bias that it will bounce. I have similar bias. I just want to add that before price drops down the 1.1970 level might get hit quickly to kill/hunt some stops before going lower. Wishing the best on your approach.

Stay Green

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 16, 2017 4:06pm | Post# 19

My outlook for the coming week: I am considering Long entry near 1.1920, targeting 1.2150. I expect that eu will move up and make a new high on Wednesday, the 20th on the FOMC news. To me it does not look like 1.2096 is the final to of this uptrend, there was a reasonable pullback from there, I also believe that the cable shall pull the eu up.
Thanks for your thoughts cabbiefx.. I believe you are trading the H4 or maybe the Daily timeframe.. since on both we have not seen a lower low yet and therefore it makes sense (for now).. but once highs or lows are tested and depending on which side gives in I think you will update your thoughts. Wishing you the best of luck..

Stay Green

denisius Sep 16, 2017 4:30pm | Post# 20

{quote} First, thanks for your contribution brother.. I think you believe too that after market opening, price probably will retest lower levels first. From your chart I can see that whether it is your yellow TL or the red MA you too first will wait to see what will happen once/if price goes back to 1.1880 levels but you have the bias that it will bounce. I have similar bias. I just want to add that before price drops down the 1.1970 level might get hit quickly to kill/hunt some stops before going lower. Wishing the best on your approach. Stay Green...
Yes of course. No immediate decision. All my indicators point to re test below 19. Maybe 1890 lowest may be not. Next Wednesday will be big and may give further direction of Euro. Now watching. Thanks for comment.

Paolob Sep 16, 2017 4:59pm | Post# 21

good rules, subscribed

Samer1970 Sep 16, 2017 8:24pm | Post# 22

good rules, subscribed

Samer1970 Sep 16, 2017 8:29pm | Post# 23

1 Attachment(s)
mechanical trader
NB new buy
NS new sell
counter trend trader
hedging eur-usd as i have noticed that the broker is widening the spread in the weekend and on US market closure 4 times the real spread and this is forcing me to hedge all trades daily bcz of this ......
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hilmy83 Sep 16, 2017 9:40pm | Post# 24

Cool. ATA may you have long forum life to maintain this

KayserChampi Sep 16, 2017 10:02pm | Post# 25

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josh11 Sep 17, 2017 4:45am | Post# 26

Good luck mate, subscribe

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 17, 2017 5:38am | Post# 27

Cool. ATA may you have long forum life to maintain this
Thanks mate.. I just believe this forum will do its job in a best way thanks to all you.. and as long as I breathe I will keep it together..

Happy Sunday

Ashwani Sep 17, 2017 7:55am | Post# 28

{quote} Thanks mate.. I just believe this forum will do its job in a best way thanks to all you.. and as long as I breathe I will keep it together.. Happy Sunday
Thanks sir for start this thread many days i am waiting your analysis .

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 17, 2017 9:14am | Post# 29

1 Attachment(s)
EURUSD - Daily and Hourly Outlook for Monday

Okay, as I promised yesterday, here comes my latest analysis for EURUSD:

Starting with the Daily Chart:

  1. My complete focus is on the MACD Double Divergence (marked on daily chart with 2 green lines) that caused price to delve through the main supportive trendline (blue) which is a very important development to me, considering that no candle could close below it for weeks. Now it did!
  2. I believe that the bears could have pushed price already much lower but the Hidden MACD Divergence (marked with a purple line) acted as a tiny bump on the road which delayed the bearish rally and caused an attempt to retest the recent breakout level, which IMHO shouldn't go higher than 1.2015 to keep bearish power in play.
  3. In my thinking, a sell strategy inside a zone of 1.20 to 1.2020 with confirmation from hourly timeframe would be profitable based on daily chart.

Hourly Chart:

  1. Keeping the important aspects of the daily in the back of our heads, on hourly I am focused solely on where to risk a final buy (which, to me, is actually unnecessary but could be still profitable)
  2. The lowest risk to buy on hourly chart seems to be around 1.1880 area. I made a call for especially 1.1872 since that is the trigger price of the latest swing high that was also caused by the hourly MACD Divergence (purple line on hourly chart). If price drops for a retest towards that level, bears will be probably rejected inside London session on Monday.
  3. Since MACD is above 0 on hourly chart but signal line (thin blue on hourly) has crossed below main line (thick gray line on hourly) I assume that bears will start the show right after market opening.
  4. Since hourly chart is still inside the aftereffect of the Hidden MACD Divergence (marked with a green line on hourly chart) my thinking is that 1.1976 area will reject bulls on Monday for a while until 1.1880 area is properly tested.

In a nutshell: I prefer to keep an overall bearish bias (based on daily), but I am aware that bulls will try to get back above 1.2015. The best would be to just look for shorts around 1.2010 and carefully look for buys around 1.1880.

Stay Green
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okshop Sep 17, 2017 9:44am | Post# 30

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Stay Green {image}[/quote]
Good to be getting your daily analysis again Mr. Ata, and also glad yr levels is about my levels +- = have a plan as per chart and will hopefully stay with the plan if hit SL then to bad. Problem is I just like to TP to fast. Still a lot to condition my mind like a ninja or some commando training. p/s hope to hear from you daily
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MoneyFocus Sep 17, 2017 9:46am | Post# 31

EURUSD - Daily and Hourly Outlook for Monday Okay, as I promised yesterday, here comes my latest analysis for EURUSD: Starting with the Daily Chart: My complete focus is on the MACD Double Divergence (marked on daily chart with 2 green lines) that caused price to delve through the main supportive trendline (blue) which is a very important development to me, considering that no candle could close below it for weeks. Now it did! I believe that the bears could have pushed price already much lower but the Hidden MACD Divergence (marked with a purple...
thank you for sharing

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 17, 2017 10:52am | Post# 32

Good to be getting your daily analysis again Mr. Ata, and also glad yr levels is about my levels +- = have a plan as per chart and will hopefully stay with the plan if hit SL then to bad. Problem is I just like to TP to fast. Still a lot to condition my mind like a ninja or some commando training. p/s hope to hear from you daily
Nice chart and input buddy.. I see that your Sell A level is supporting my outlook.. and speaking from a Harmonic Patterns standpoint, I noticed a possible Cypher D leg forming at 1.2020 area if again, price doesn't exceed a fib 78.6% retracement.. these patterns might work or not but in our case it is just another positive signal for me that fits with my main analysis and strengthens the odds that we might be right this time. Good luck on Monday..

Stay Green

dwe213 Sep 17, 2017 7:59pm | Post# 33

Subscribed! I appreciate your initiative in staring this thread, and inspiring us to focus on EU trading ideas.

denisius Sep 17, 2017 9:32pm | Post# 34

{quote} Nice chart and input buddy.. I see that your Sell A level is supporting my outlook.. and speaking from a Harmonic Patterns standpoint, I noticed a possible Cypher D leg forming at 1.2020 area if again, price doesn't exceed a fib 78.6% retracement.. these patterns might work or not but in our case it is just another positive signal for me that fits with my main analysis and strengthens the odds that we might be right this time. Good luck on Monday.. Stay Green
Looks like partial down closed on opening. No tradable set up for me at this point. Waiting for cleaning 1889. From there may be buy. But my overall view on E is down on Wednesday!

littlemole85 Sep 18, 2017 2:24am | Post# 35

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Good morning!
Until Wednesday: I expect a touch of 1.2000, so until then I am with the bulls. On 1.200x are my limit sells will be waiting for the price.
My only concern is that if the falling knife start before that, I will miss a good entry point and being stoped.
On Wednesday: Hopefully I will be sitting in shorts with an avg@1.200x, expecting spikes, so no stop until the madness gone
I know Iam not so sophisticated with the idea, but I can't sell this today (feel it my guts also), they(MMs,RBs) need those 1.200x levels to fill their orders. My stops are below 1.9000 so if the falling knife start before Wednesday(or just a gift spike from Oanda), I will stopped and cryin' in the corner
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4rx Sep 18, 2017 2:28am | Post# 36

1 Attachment(s)
I am in Ata. Thanks . Long time no see brother. Take a look. Something i am working on. {image}
hi denisius... our system almost the same but i prefer to combine these 3 indi. in same window...
my macd 7.15.9
stoch 9.3.5
rsi 7
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samid Sep 18, 2017 3:55am | Post# 37

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Hello Traders!

First time posting an idea: EU Sell @1.192xx TP: 1.187xx SL: 1.19920
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Ata-Turkoglu Sep 18, 2017 4:05am | Post# 38

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{quote} Looks like partial down closed on opening. No tradable set up for me at this point. Waiting for cleaning 1889. From there may be buy. But my overall view on E is down on Wednesday!
Good point you mentioned cleaning of 1889.. I made a little update on my previous analysis regards to London opening.. On hourly time frame I now focus on 1.1883 (which is almost equal to the price you mentioned).. I noticed 2 major bullish trigger candles there and interpret their opening price as most crucial. But overall the picture is still the same and therefore no need to update strategies.

I also added the dashed blue line which is going to slow down bearish move during London session. My half cents..

Stay Green
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Ata-Turkoglu Sep 18, 2017 4:10am | Post# 39

Good morning! Until Wednesday: I expect a touch of 1.2000, so until then I am with the bulls. On 1.200x are my limit sells will be waiting for the price. My only concern is that if the falling knife start before that, I will miss a good entry point and being stoped. On Wednesday: Hopefully I will be sitting in shorts with an avg@1.200x, expecting spikes, so no stop until the madness gone I know Iam not so sophisticated with the idea, but I can't sell this today (feel it my guts also), they(MMs,RBs) need those 1.200x levels to fill their...
Nice input and thanks.. yes I agree with you there that it is not the proper time to sell, especially when bears have not the necessary steam. Therefore I was recommending to sell as near as it gets to 1.2015 area, or in other words don't sell while market price is below 1.20.. I also mentioned not to risk a buy while price is above 1.19.. Wednesday or not, I too believe that falling knife is waiting at the corner..

Stay Green

Ata-Turkoglu Sep 18, 2017 4:18am | Post# 40

{quote} hi denisius... our system almost the same but i prefer to combine these 3 indi. in same window... my macd 7.15.9 stoch 9.3.5 rsi 7 {image}
Combining indis inside the same sub-window might cause "shifting" of lines depending on main window candle positioning and therefore it can cause misinterpretation of cross sections between different MA lines, because the cross sections will change during the main window flow, so I hope you are aware of that. Otherwise good luck with your approach..

Stay Green


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