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engweijie Dec 3, 2018 3:22am | Post# 64721

{quote} Bears have full control over EU, but doubt that they will make a big action today....however, I can see a downward pressure mounting over next few hours
The current and next hour should be the decisive factor in setting the tone for today.

So far (pardon my bear bias, I'm still holding the shorts but I've been buy-scalping dips to make up for the drawdown) that bull run looks like a classic Frankie fakeout and we're back on a downmove, whether to correct the gap or for continuation of last Friday I don't know but I do agree with what you said about bears having the upper hand (for now).

But yeah time will tell. Let's see how this hour ends first.

vvm Dec 3, 2018 3:30am | Post# 64722

1 Attachment(s)
M5

IMHO

it is a 1. PuB or a BearishFlag
the 2. Entry were possible
and BRN 1.1350 is a Magnet for DownMove
therefore no TP1
TP @ 1.1350

atb/vvm
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digger1 Dec 3, 2018 3:32am | Post# 64723

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} The current and next hour should be the decisive factor in setting the tone for today. So far (pardon my bear bias, I'm still holding the shorts but I've been buy-scalping dips to make up for the drawdown) that bull run looks like a classic Frankie fakeout and we're back on a downmove, whether to correct the gap or for continuation of last Friday I don't know but I do agree with what you said about bears having the upper hand (for now). But yeah time will tell. Let's see how this hour ends first.
Wont all be today obviously ,,, but remeber what just the hourly 54 lwa looked like with out the candles , Its pretty much in the middle of a typical pattern . Any rate ,, time to go do what I am lol,, have a great session and trading day all ,,sty green and safe and grab all ya can cheers Click to Enlarge

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vvm Dec 3, 2018 3:35am | Post# 64724

SL to BE

atb/vvm

post Dec 3, 2018 3:36am | Post# 64725

{quote} The current and next hour should be the decisive factor in setting the tone for today. So far (pardon my bear bias, I'm still holding the shorts but I've been buy-scalping dips to make up for the drawdown) that bull run looks like a classic Frankie fakeout and we're back on a downmove, whether to correct the gap or for continuation of last Friday I don't know but I do agree with what you said about bears having the upper hand (for now). But yeah time will tell. Let's see how this hour ends first.

nothing wrong with the bear bias my friend, market dosent like the gap up or down always try to fill up unless force is too strong, so we could be up for the gap filling later today then rise again unless really bad data from EU, there are few important EU data in the pipeline which could make a bigger impact on today's movement

Trade safe.
Happy Trading

galactico Dec 3, 2018 3:36am | Post# 64726

{quote} The current and next hour should be the decisive factor in setting the tone for today. So far (pardon my bear bias, I'm still holding the shorts but I've been buy-scalping dips to make up for the drawdown) that bull run looks like a classic Frankie fakeout and we're back on a downmove, whether to correct the gap or for continuation of last Friday I don't know but I do agree with what you said about bears having the upper hand (for now). But yeah time will tell. Let's see how this hour ends first.
Dangerous to say the EU is completely bearish. The longer term charts agree with that assumption but H4 and below are very mixed or slightly bullish. We've been to 1.12x a couple of times and back to 1.14x. This is more of a classic ranging situation. (a fairly tight one) Now that doesnt mean that from day to day there wont be clear bullish or bearish trends but, at the moment, any strong pushes in either direction are being retraced fairly quickly.
The longer term breakout could take a while to happen.
Just my thoughts

MzansiObi Dec 3, 2018 3:40am | Post# 64727

Morning Money Team. Outlook for the day is as follows. Sold 1.13700 25 pip SL TP Open. Sell Limit at 1.13918 SL: 30 Pips Buy Limit at 1.13480 SL:30 Pips Buy Limit at 1.1300 SL 25 Pips. Stay Green.
Update: closed half position to lock in profits. So moved to break even.

vvm Dec 3, 2018 3:45am | Post# 64728

1 Attachment(s)
M5
new BearishFlag

atb/vvm
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Moty Dec 3, 2018 3:48am | Post# 64729

1 Attachment(s)
The gap closing is coming
Tp 1 pivot line 1.13400
Tp 2 gap at 1.13165
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vvm Dec 3, 2018 3:49am | Post# 64730

m5

bearishtl is broken too

atb/vvm

engweijie Dec 3, 2018 3:51am | Post# 64731

{quote} nothing wrong with the bear bias my friend, market dosent like the gap up or down always try to fill up unless force is too strong, so we could be up for the gap filling later today then rise again unless really bad data from EU, there are few important EU data in the pipeline which could make a bigger impact on today's movement Trade safe. Happy Trading
I look forward to hearing your thoughts come news time, always an interesting read

{quote} Dangerous to say the EU is completely bearish. The longer term charts agree with that assumption but H4 and below are very mixed or slightly bullish. We've been to 1.12x a couple of times and back to 1.14x. This is more of a classic ranging situation. (a fairly tight one) Now that doesnt mean that from day to day there wont be clear bullish or bearish trends but, at the moment, any strong pushes in either direction are being retraced fairly quickly. The longer term breakout could take a while to happen. Just my thoughts
I can't and won't deny with what you just said. As a few have mentioned earlier, there's no hard and fast rule saying the gap HAS to be corrected. We could jolly well soar up and tag 1.1425 by NY for all we know. But IMO at this hour the ball is really still in anyone's court. The reason why I still hold my shorts is because my MM allows me to - realistically given that I allocate lot sizes based on how green (or scale down if I'm red) for the day, I have just about slightly less than 50 pips to spare after including the buy scalps as an actual SL and still come out of this near BE. If this were my first trade of the day, I'd have likely exited when price first hit 1.1369 then made a pullback to 1.1360.

As for my bear bias, as of right now it really does seem like anyone's game. H1 shows price sitting nicely on dynamic support (or at least, Ata's 54 and 49 lwmas), and given there's only 15 minutes left to closing I would think it's safe to assume we'd close somewhere around here, sitting snugly on said support. What I am looking out for, is how the next hour goes. So far, M5 candles have closed under the 1.1363 level, so the next hour I will want to see if it turns and resists, where I start looking out for candles closing above (first factor to invalidate my bear sentiment) and H1 candles unable to close below 1.1355 (second factor to throw out my bear bias). On the daily chart, our current high (1.13798 on my broker) is just shy of resistance at 1.1386, and price was rejected on its approach.

Gives me confidence to continue holding my bearish sentiment at least for the next hour (or next breakout *knock on wood*) or so. The day's still early so there's still lots of time to see how she plays out.

Of course, it would be absolutely suicidal and foolish to insist on my view should the tides change, which is why I’m keeping a close watch on the next two hours fully aware that I might have to throw this trading plan out the window.

Happy trading to you brother hope you've had a good start to the week

irinsexpert Dec 3, 2018 3:54am | Post# 64732

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} The current and next hour should be the decisive factor in setting the tone for today. So far (pardon my bear bias, I'm still holding the shorts but I've been buy-scalping dips to make up for the drawdown) that bull run looks like a classic Frankie fakeout and we're back on a downmove, whether to correct the gap or for continuation of last Friday I don't know but I do agree with what you said about bears having the upper hand (for now). But yeah time will tell. Let's see how this hour ends first.
Hi engweijie.
Yes I agree. since the Pivot may not pas R38. the resistance will make the retracement a bit longer.
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vvm Dec 3, 2018 3:54am | Post# 64733

M5
I think it is a Range 25p

atb/vvm

Fredrick7 Dec 3, 2018 3:57am | Post# 64734

It sometimes takes days for gaps to close. Sometimes they don`t close at all but come to present support areas.

Looks like wave 5 up on 15m. I`m aiming at 1.1380 - to begin with.

okshop Dec 3, 2018 3:58am | Post# 64735

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} bears defended the H1 tag ( on thin ice)
1 more try in 4 min
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vvm Dec 3, 2018 3:58am | Post# 64736

1 Attachment(s)
M5
I was a bit to late for Long
but I bought a bit, sl,tp 10p

atb/vvm
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Mitiblotch Dec 3, 2018 3:59am | Post# 64737

Still patiently waiting for 1.139x area. May or may not come.

okshop Dec 3, 2018 4:00am | Post# 64738

{quote} 1 more try in 4 min {image}
again bears defended (closed 5 long)

galactico Dec 3, 2018 4:01am | Post# 64739

{quote} I look forward to hearing your thoughts come news time, always an interesting read {quote} I can't and won't deny with what you just said. As a few have mentioned earlier, there's no hard and fast rule saying the gap HAS to be corrected. We could jolly well soar up and tag 1.1425 by NY for all we know. But IMO at this hour the ball is really still in anyone's court. The reason why I still hold my shorts is because my MM allows me to - realistically given that I allocate lot sizes based on how green (or scale down if I'm red) for...
agree. It's all about the timeframe you trade.
Keep it up I enjoy your commentaries

brr001 Dec 3, 2018 4:02am | Post# 64740

short covering in EU is very sharp, excellent time to short at the highs


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