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cat Jul 27, 2017 8:17am | Post# 1

Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion
 
I've been meaning to start a new purely Dax discussion thread for a while, so here it is. This thread is not meant to replace any other existing Dax thread, merely to stand on its own as a thread for Dax traders who want to check their levels and analysis with mine or others, or discuss points that are relevant.

I have been trading Dax consistently for several years now, and like it for its volatility, big range, and low spread, especially important when using a stop loss rarely wider than 15-20 pips, which I am able to do by timing my entries off of a 20 second chart. I am a multi-time frame trader, using 20sec, 1m, 5m, 20m, H1 and H4 charts, all of which I have open in front of me at all times using six monitors. On days when I am not trading Dax, I am usually trading GJ, easily my favourite forex pair.

If anyone wishes to post trades, then can I ask that they are backed up with an explanation and perhaps a chart, because the reason this is on the Discussion thread ( now moved by ff moderators to Stocks and Commodities ) and not an interactive one is because I want to discourage the buy here/sell there type post, which is of little value to others unless it is backed up with a rationale for the trade. Personally, I do not have the time or inclination for posting my trades, so I will refrain from it. What I will do is post my ideas on the likely daily direction when I have it, S&R levels, and anything else throughout the day that I see as important information for Dax traders. I encourage others to do the same, agree with me, disagree with me, post your own levels and analysis, whatever, as long as it is constructive and objective. My focus will be on intra-day trading, so I will rarely post any TA that is further out than the next 24 hours, though I will occasionally refer to longer term levels of support and resistance if I see them as important.

For starters today, I see Dax carrying pretty strong down momentum so far today, but potential support is not far beneath, which probably explains why it keeps dipping and coming back. The final support I have today is S2 @ 12,185. If that breaks , then we are into new lows for the week unless it double bottoms. Upside is tricky to say at the moment, so I'll leave that alone, though CP @ 287 is a possibility if it does manage to reverse north during the NY session. DFib levels on the downside today are 61.8 @ 12,218, which we just hit, and 76.4% @ 188, just above S2.

Just one thing I ask, if you do post charts, which is great, no problem there, but keep it to one or two, as there's no bigger turn off than someone who posts ten of their own charts in a row, bearing in mind that for most of us, another trader's charts can be pretty meaningless when they bear absolutely no resemblance or relation to our own.

Good, let's see how we get on.

Sixer Jul 27, 2017 8:29am | Post# 2

How do you handle the DAX Dollar investors ? They hold 54% of the DAX stocks.
Actually they are considering a DAX investment similar as the investment in US stocks.

Sixer

Sixer Jul 27, 2017 8:44am | Post# 3

Second questions: Did you intend to use the DAX-Kursindex instead of the DAX-Performanceindex for your considerations?
Only the DAX-Kursindex makes sense if you intend to make comparison of the DAX with the US indices.

Sixer

cat Jul 27, 2017 8:59am | Post# 4

Second questions: Did you intend to use the DAX-Kursindex instead of the DAX-Performanceindex for your considerations? Only the DAX-Kursindex makes sense if you intend to make comparison of the DAX with the US indices. Sixer {image}
Hi Sixer. To answer both your questions. Personally, Dax dollar investment or the % of it is of no concern to how I trade. I am a short term, purely technical trader, and though intermarket analysis is important to some traders, for me it tends not to be. The Dax I trade, and the Dax I shall be discussing here is the DAX 30 Daily Funded Bet. As of late, the major US stock indexes such as the S&P and the Dow, have been out of kilter with the Dax, which has been falling as US stocks have been pushing higher. With such a high dollar investment in Dax stocks, and with the dollar having fallen pretty precipitously recently, this may partly explain why Dax has been faling, though for me, the moves have been purely technical.

Sixer Jul 27, 2017 10:10am | Post# 5

OK - so, how is your actual DAX outlook if you consider that the US indices will make an important high in mid august ?

Sixer

cat Jul 27, 2017 10:33am | Post# 6

The short money was taken off the table at S2 as I thought it probably would be if the price reached it. That should be as low as we go today. Adios until tomorrow. I'll be posting my pre-London TA each morning for the Dax if anyone is interested, between 7am and 07.30am London time. If I don't, it just means I'm not here. Remember, this thread is for all Dax traders, not just me, so don't be shy!

PariCovek Jul 27, 2017 10:36am | Post# 7

I think Cat is right, as the USD weakens, those USD investors may be inclined to cash in their Dax stock holdings for a Gain on both the Stocks and the Foreign Currency positions, this may result in re-positioning towards US Equities or other investments.

Also, the other way to look at it, is that the German Dax companies export heavily to the USA, so if the USD weakens, then there is a possibility that forecasts for Dax exports and incomes reduce, hence, bringing down the Dax Index also.

Having said all this, US Equities continue to rise, and this weakness in the USD, the hold on Fed rate hikes, and recent rise in Oil and Commodities will only bolster US Equities further in the short/medium term. It still looks quite bullish to me the Dow.

cat Jul 27, 2017 10:42am | Post# 8

OK - so, how is your actual DAX outlook if you consider that the US indices will make an important high in mid august ? Sixer {image}
I tend not to make long term predictions beyond what I can see on the day. As for US indecis, who knows how high the Dow is going to go now..22,000? 23,000? It's anyone's guess.

As for Dax, there are some technical observations to be made about where we are headed. The Monthly chart has very strong looking diversion with MACD, which is something to take note of. Closer in, the weekly chart has been showing signs of topping out and coming down for weeks now, as I have alluded to on my trader's Academy thread I think it was. On the Daily, there is now a classic situation where we have the 200ema/sma just below, and the price definitely knows it is there which is why it's reacting. The 100sma is now rolling over the top, and from many previous observations, the price will very often rally back up to the 100sma before falling again. But this is pure speculation, so I'll leave it at that.

Brixen Jul 27, 2017 2:29pm | Post# 9

1 Attachment(s)
congratulations for your thread
my little input on DAX FUTURE H2 last 30 days

Click to Enlarge

Name: FDAXH2-28june27july17.png
Size: 38 KB

cat Jul 28, 2017 2:19am | Post# 10

I'm looking for longs today on Dax. The price hit the Daily 200sma during the Asian session, which is also today's S1 pivot level. There may well be a long opp before the London open if it pulls back a bit, or if not, then I'll see what the London boys do with it. there's no guarantee that it won't break lower, but long is my preferred. direction at the moment.

As for R levels, there are loads all the way up if it does go north. TRhe first big one should be the Central pivot @ 207, which also sits on today's 38.2% fib. If it can get above that, then the 61.8% fib would be my high for the day, just above the 30m 200ema @ 260, with R1 just above @ 265.

If it does indeed break lower, then the Daily 200ema is at 070, just above today's S2, which is at 055.

cat Jul 28, 2017 3:32am | Post# 11

You don't need me to tell you that this is pretty confused, dangerous pa atm on Dax. London probably intended to trap shorts, as in pulling people in on the short side with that push down, and for now the support is holding, though it's bu no means certain that it will. All the big MAS are still bearing down above the price, so momentum still down, but Dax can turn fast once support has been confirmed so vigilance if the key.

cat Jul 28, 2017 4:27am | Post# 12

Sorry guys, this thread has been moved by the ff moderators from the Discussion forums to commodities and stocks, and I don't really want it to be there. What I might have to do is do a new thread and put it onto the Interactive forum and call it something else. The Carpe Diem Dax thread is there, and that seems to have got along okay without being messed about with by the moderators. So this may be my last post here. Look out for a new thread, either on the Discussion, or Interactive, though I probably won't do it today.

Pip-Miner Jul 28, 2017 4:50pm | Post# 13

You don't need me to tell you that this is pretty confused, dangerous pa atm on Dax. London probably intended to trap shorts, as in pulling people in on the short side with that push down, and for now the support is holding, though it's bu no means certain that it will. All the big MAS are still bearing down above the price, so momentum still down, but Dax can turn fast once support has been confirmed so vigilance if the key.
Like the thought processes , welcome dax trader. You may want to create a journal to be left alone . There is also Brixen journal fdax. We would be very interested in your trading.

cat Jul 30, 2017 8:40am | Post# 14

It doesn't really matter where this thread is on the forum, and although I would have preferred it to be on ' Discussion ', it has been moved and so I'll have to live with it. I think anyone out there who trades the Dax, and is interested in following and/or contributing to this kind of thread, will find it. So I will simply continue with it, where it is on this Stocks and Commodities forum, at least as long as I can be bothered. I will keep it strictly to the technical side of trading the Dax, and anything else concerning more general aspects of trading, I will post onto my ' Trader's Academy ' thread.

Hope to see a few of you along the way.

cat Jul 30, 2017 8:42am | Post# 15

congratulations for your thread my little input on DAX FUTURE H2 last 30 days {image}
Thanks Brixen - hope to see more of your posts here.

Brixen Jul 30, 2017 9:28am | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} Thanks Brixen - hope to see more of your posts here.
OK thanks,
so Dax future Daily chart from april till last friday

Click to Enlarge

Name: FDAXaprtojuly17.png
Size: 31 KB

alicimo Jul 30, 2017 3:02pm | Post# 17

Brixen, thanks that is is cool and thank you - are you showing us a line of S/R you have identified on Daily PA or is there something else there I am missing ?

Brixen Jul 30, 2017 6:11pm | Post# 18

Brixen, thanks that is is cool and thank you - are you showing us a line of S/R you have identified on Daily PA or is there something else there I am missing ?
To reply your answer I copy and paste what I wrote some days ago on my FDAX journal:

a. FDAX big move started from 10000 on 9 nov 2016 and has reached a top slightly below 13000.
so 1st decent retracement stands around 12000 (one third, more or less) very close to last friday's low 12088.

b. last strong up leg started from 11963 on 20 april 2017 till 12946 on 20 june 2017 .

So I see 2 possible scenario for next days:
1. 11960/12000 zone retest or,
2. last friday's low is the new 3 months bottom and then we re-started up agan.

P.S.: no exact science here and as someone knows on FF, I'm more istinctive trader than technical trader.

cat Jul 31, 2017 2:22am | Post# 19

Morning Dax traders!

An early push own, which doesn't necessarily mean it'll continue through the London open. The big Daily support is still there in the 200ema @ 070. I have some support on today's S1 @ 118, and beneath that my last level of support before she pushes lower is 12,100.

On the upward side, difficult to say when it's still pushing down, but if it does reverse this morning, then 200 will be a level I'll be watching closely, which is the 20m 200ema with R1 just above it at 210.

The price has fallen quite a long way from its H1 20ema, so it is that the sort of level where one can expect it to retrace back towards it, but we'll have to see what the London lads want to do with it. I have today's CP @ 153. Good luck!

ps---If anyone uses IG prorealtime charting software, their pivot points on a Monday are a nonsense. I therefore take the pivots from Intertrader prorealtime charts, who give the correct pivots on a Monday.

I've slightly changed my initial support above from 122 to 118. The fib levels on this German open downward push are 61.8%, which is providing support right now @ 130, and the 76.4% reinforces my 118 potential support level, as it sits @ 116.

cat Jul 31, 2017 3:56am | Post# 20

The support around the 130-117 level is looking stronger all the time, and I would be surprised if we put in new lows today, though anything is possible. There's a lot of R, but upside potential better atm as I see it. Key levels above 200 are the H1 100sma @ 227. R2 ia @ 240, and the next big levl, my highest for today should it get that far, is the H1 200ema @ 290, with the 76.4% fib just beneath @ 286.

The direction change/pullback zones are usually messy, especially when the price is contained as it is now between S&R.


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