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-   -   Random Walk (The unbeatable!) (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/653850-random-walk-the-unbeatable)

forexcentric Apr 5, 2017 5:16am | Post# 61

Hi GoldTheHun,

When you have time, is it possible to answer to post 47 ?

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 5:16am | Post# 62

{quote} Thank you for your reply GoldHun ... unfortunately that didn't solve the problem. Is it due to the fact that my broker has 5 digits after the comma in their data ?
I have 5 digits with my broker too, but no problems..
Try this: First open the daily chart of the pair, thank go through every time frames (4hr, 1hr down to 1 minute) than return to 5 minutes and attach the indicator pls.
See if this solves the problem.
Also does it cause this problem on all the pairs or some pairs??
Please advise....

kfarawi Apr 5, 2017 5:20am | Post# 63

{quote} I have 5 digits with my broker too, but no problems.. Try this: First open the daily chart of the pair, thank go through every time frames (4hr, 1hr down to 1 minute) than return to 5 minutes and attach the indicator pls. See if this solves the problem. Also does it cause this problem on all the pairs or some pairs?? Please advise....
GoldTheHun...my mistake...it's all good now...I didn't know that ATRclose was used and I had changed the name of that indicator...sorry about the inconvenience...looking forward to trying this. Cheers !

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 5:21am | Post# 64

{quote} GoldTheHun...my mistake...it's all good now...I didn't know that ATRclose was used and I had changed the name of that indicator...sorry about the inconvenience...looking forward to trying this. Cheers !
No problem at all. Glad the problem is solved....
Happy hunting n good luck...

Allthings-R1 Apr 5, 2017 5:44am | Post# 65

{quote} You're welcome Allthings... Actually these levels makes it easier to feel the market (at least for me). When I watch the price action, I pay close attention to which levels are holding.. That gives me a feeling of the daily intentions. This is not %100 of course, but still helps. Generally the price will not touch both the D1Res0 and D1Sup0 in the same day. That is an advantage for me for example. If price goes up to D1Res1, it very rarely returns and touches the D1Sup0.. When you watch the price action together with these levels you will...
That is why I said thanks

I am working on several tasks at this moment, apart from my family duties. Not really spare brainpower these days for adding new golden stuff but I will follow the thread and start "feeling" your system (thanks again) most probably after Easter time. So please, let some pips available !!!

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 6:03am | Post# 66

{quote} That is why I said thanks I am working on several tasks at this moment, apart from my family duties. Not really spare brainpower these days for adding new golden stuff but I will follow the thread and start "feeling" your system (thanks again) most probably after Easter time. So please, let some pips available !!!


salamanda74 Apr 5, 2017 6:07am | Post# 67

Hi Gold,
As I use a different platform and cannot look at the indicator in action, please would you set out the calculation for D1 Res 0 and D1 Sup 0 using previous day OHLC data and the ATR. What period daily ATR are you using?
Thanks

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 6:10am | Post# 68

Hi GoldTheHun, You said that the formula for random walk is Sqrt(bars) * Volatility * ZScore. I have two questions : 1. Volatility is the standard deviation of natural logarithmic daily return for some number of days ? If yes, which is that number of days ? 2. What means bars in sqrt(bars) ? And why this term is necessary ? It is for adapting somehow the daily volatility to the m5 chart ?
Sorry forexcentric, I have missed that post. Thanks for reminding.

The method of calculation that I use is a very simple one actually.
In a day we have 288 of 5 minute bars. In a week we have 1400 of 5 minute bars.
So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms).
For daily calculations the expected levels become Daily open +-volatility * Sqrt(288) * ZScore
For weekly Sqrt(1400) is used..

Hope this helps.. Good luck...

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 6:12am | Post# 69

Hi Gold, As I use a different platform and cannot look at the indicator in action, please would you set out the calculation for D1 Res 0 and D1 Sup 0 using previous day OHLC data and the ATR. What period daily ATR are you using? Thanks
As I have explained in post 68, I don't use ATR, I use absolute close differences of 5 minute bars... Previous day OHLC has nothing to do with this method...
Good luck....

diamonddbw Apr 5, 2017 6:44am | Post# 70

Hi Gold, As I use a different platform and cannot look at the indicator in action, please would you set out the calculation for D1 Res 0 and D1 Sup 0 using previous day OHLC data and the ATR. What period daily ATR are you using? Thanks
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Get an MT4 demo from Tradersway. They have the proper broker time.

mattkirby Apr 5, 2017 8:11am | Post# 71

{quote} Sorry forexcentric, I have missed that post. Thanks for reminding. The method of calculation that I use is a very simple one actually. In a day we have 288 of 5 minute bars. In a week we have 1400 of 5 minute bars. So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms). For daily calculations the expected levels become Daily open +-volatility * Sqrt(288) * ZScore For weekly Sqrt(1400) is used.. Hope this helps.. Good luck...
Thanks for explaining. But one more question on this. What is ZScore?

forexcentric Apr 5, 2017 8:15am | Post# 72

Thank you, Gold!
One more question: you said "So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms).".

So the daily volatility is the standard deviation of the 288 m5 bars from previous day ? I mean, you calculate a standard deviation after you calculate the absolute difference between m5 bars, right ?

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 8:19am | Post# 73

{quote} Thanks for explaining. But one more question on this. What is ZScore?
Well for the explanation you have to search the web. It is a statistical term dealing with Normal Distribution. Would take so long to explain it.

Good Luck...

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 8:25am | Post# 74

Thank you, Gold! One more question: you said "So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms).". So the daily volatility is the standard deviation of the 288 m5 bars from previous day ? I mean, you calculate a standard deviation after you calculate the absolute difference between m5 bars, right ?
Standard deviation would be the sqrt(288) * close differences. You multiply this value with relevant ZScores...
The differences of 5 minute bars are calculated for a length of 1400 bars (1 week) not 1 day to get a smoother picture.

forexcentric Apr 5, 2017 8:30am | Post# 75

{quote} Thanks for explaining. But one more question on this. What is ZScore?
I found this:

The algorithm to compute a Z-Score is simple. Start with a list of numbers representing common values for something. Compute the mean of this list. The mean is just a simple average. Then compute the standard deviation of the list of numbers. The standard deviation is the average distance between each number in the list, and the mean of the list. Now take a new number that you want to compare to the list of numbers. Subtract the mean of the list from that number, then divide the result by the standard deviation of the list. The final result will be the Z-Score of the new number compared to the list of numbers.

The source: https://www.trade-ideas.com/glossary/z-score/

And a new question to Gold:

Z-Score is a characteristic of a number compared with a list of numbers. OK, that list is those 288 m5 bars ( for daily ). But which is that number for which we compute the Z-Score ?

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 8:34am | Post# 76

{quote} I found this: The algorithm to compute a Z-Score is simple. Start with a list of numbers representing common values for something. Compute the mean of this list. The mean is just a simple average. Then compute the standard deviation of the list of numbers. The standard deviation is the average distance between each number in the list, and the mean of the list. Now take a new number that you want to compare to the list of numbers. Subtract the mean of the list from that number, then divide the result by the standard deviation of the list....
Signıficant ZScores are 1, 1.645, 1.96, 2.58

So the volatility is multiplied by these numbers in order to arrive at the levels..

You should look up ZScores in wikipedia. They have a deeper explanation with pic samples.
Hope this helps..

Good Luck....

FireFries Apr 5, 2017 8:51am | Post# 77

A very nice simple system to follow. Thank you, GoldtheHun.
Like the "set and forget", entered 2 entries today, one TP and one still hanging around the entry price.

So if SL is 0.5%, 2 entry per day.
Possible outcomes:
worst case: 1% lost (eg. 2x SL)
Best case: 3% gain (eg. 2x TP)

Fantastic!

Appreciate the contribution, GoldtheHun.

RapzyFX Apr 5, 2017 8:52am | Post# 78

{quote} Sorry forexcentric, I have missed that post. Thanks for reminding. The method of calculation that I use is a very simple one actually. In a day we have 288 of 5 minute bars. In a week we have 1400 of 5 minute bars. So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms). For daily calculations the expected levels become Daily open +-volatility * Sqrt(288) * ZScore For weekly Sqrt(1400) is used.. Hope this helps.. Good luck...
Dear GTH,
Thank you very much for this unique trading approach which has brought up nice ideas and concepts. I made a mistake though and got a loss -- still learning.
Got in again with profit now. Thanks once again.

I would like also to ask if you could adjust this Indicator to work on larger TF's mainly because I really dont trade 5min TF and I believe some others here may have same concerns. Please help.
Best Regards
T

forexcentric Apr 5, 2017 8:54am | Post# 79

{quote} Signıficant ZScores are 1, 1.645, 1.96, 2.58 So the volatility is multiplied by these numbers in order to arrive at the levels.. You should look up ZScores in wikipedia. They have a deeper explanation with pic samples. Hope this helps.. Good Luck....
With this, I think I got it all ...
Thank you, GoldTheHun!

GoldTheHun Apr 5, 2017 8:55am | Post# 80

A very nice simple system to follow. Thank you, GoldtheHun. Like the "set and forget", entered 2 entries today, one TP and one still hanging around the entry price. So if SL is 0.5%, 2 entry per day. Possible outcomes: worst case: 1% lost (eg. 2x SL) Best case: 3% gain (eg. 2x TP) Fantastic! Appreciate the contribution, GoldtheHun.
Glad to hear that it fits your trading style. Keep it up FireFries...

Good Luck...


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