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-   -   Random Walk (The unbeatable!) (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=653850)

GoldTheHun Apr 3, 2017 7:06pm | Post# 1

Random Walk (The unbeatable!)
 
3 Attachment(s)
The markets are said to be random walk. Through the years of trading I really believe that the markets are random walk with a drift (drift means the current trend).
So in roulette sense random walk is black or red happening has a %50 chance (omitting the zero). Some of you will argue that the markets are not random. I totally respect that. But unfortunately the markets are very close to random walk.
I devised a support and resistance indicator ( using abokwaik indicator, praise to him). You will see that the prices really respect these levels. Try these indicators out and you will see how important they are.



Just use the RW-SupportResistanceALL on your charts (those indicators use ATR-Close to make the calculations). Please use this indicator on 5 minute chart in order for them to work correctly.
After you attach them on the chart you have to draw Fibo retracement starting from "D1 Res 0" towards "D1 Sup 0". Attached is the chart image

Click to Enlarge

Name: ES_M17M2.png
Size: 56 KB

Thats it for now.

Edit: I have revised the indicator, so that only this indicator ( RW-SupportResistanceALL) will be used on the chart. It will use the ATR-Close indy in the background so both must be downloaded

ATR-Close.ex4
RW-SupportResistanceALL.ex4

GoldTheHun Apr 3, 2017 7:33pm | Post# 2

On RW-SupportResistance indicator change the colors of weekly support and weekly resistance to NONE in the indicator color settings..

GoldTheHun Apr 3, 2017 7:44pm | Post# 3

For trading try the following:

If you believe that the market is short than enter sell limit at Fib 78.4 level, take profit at Fib 0 (D1 Sup 0). Stop Loss few pips above Fib 100 (D1 Res 0).

If you believe that the market is long than enter buy limit at Fib 23.6 level and take profit at Fib 100 (D1 Res 0). Stop Loss few pips below Fib 0 ( D1 Sup 0).

This is sort of a set and forget trading style. You will be surprised when you see the success rate...

Good hunting and Good luck......

JKLee Apr 3, 2017 9:27pm | Post# 4

Thanks for sharing your winning strategy. I am following you and starting with 0.01 lot.

Jevan Apr 3, 2017 11:13pm | Post# 5

can share more details about the tigger, which pair is suitable, which time for your system, thanks for share Gold, need your update, thanks

---
sto - macd

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 4:53am | Post# 6

Thanks for sharing your winning strategy. I am following you and starting with 0.01 lot.
Thank you and good luck..

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 4:55am | Post# 7

can share more details about the tigger, which pair is suitable, which time for your system, thanks for share Gold, need your update, thanks --- sto - macd
Well since it uses the random walk theory it can be used for any pair or cfds. Just make sure you put those two indicators on 5 minute charts..

rolandbeck Apr 4, 2017 5:14am | Post# 8

You are 100% right - I tested a lot of systems and spent a lot of money for indicators and magic software. Since few months I trade random and I use a smart trailer. I am profitable now. But most people don't believe that it is so easy.

forexcentric Apr 4, 2017 5:29am | Post# 9

1. How do you arrive into believing that the market will be long/short ?
2. Do you mind to explain a little the levels algorithm ? 'Cos I cannot use MT4 ... If it's kind of a secret, I will understand ...

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 5:30am | Post# 10

You are 100% right - I tested a lot of systems and spent a lot of money for indicators and magic software. Since few months I trade random and I use a smart trailer. I am profitable now. But most people don't believe that it is so easy.
I am glad that it works for you. Thank you and good luck....

Panisko Apr 4, 2017 5:51am | Post# 11

I like your theory
Unfortunately , I am on vacation but waiting to back and test it.
Subscribe

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 6:30am | Post# 12

1. How do you arrive into believing that the market will be long/short ? 2. Do you mind to explain a little the levels algorithm ? 'Cos I cannot use MT4 ... If it's kind of a secret, I will understand ...
1. It is up to you. You can use moving average, or any other method to figure out the trend.
2. It is not a secret. Random walk calculates (Sqrt(bars) * Volatility * ZScore)
You can find more detailed explanation on wikipedia or any other statistics based website.
Thanks...

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 6:31am | Post# 13

I like your theory Unfortunately , I am on vacation but waiting to back and test it. Subscribe
Thanks Panisko.. Enjoy your vacation in the meantime....

Traffex Apr 4, 2017 7:46am | Post# 14

{quote} 1. It is up to you. You can use moving average, or any other method to figure out the trend. 2. It is not a secret. Random walk calculates (Sqrt(bars) * Volatility * ZScore) You can find more detailed explanation on wikipedia or any other statistics based website. Thanks...

Do you use the 5 min trend ? Or 1h, Daily?

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 7:55am | Post# 15

{quote} Do you use the 5 min trend ? Or 1h, Daily?
Since this is a 1 trade per day suggestion, better to use 1 hour and up to find the trend...

Traffex Apr 4, 2017 7:57am | Post# 16

{quote} Since this is a 1 trade per day suggestion, better to use 1 hour and up to find the trend...

Thank you, I thought so.

Traffex Apr 4, 2017 8:16am | Post# 17

Is it correct, that we must have a longer distance between the last reversal of the trend and the 23.6/78.4- Level, so that the trend can develop? Or is it acceptable, when the trend starts at the 0/100-Level for instance?

Can you tell us your winrate?

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 8:35am | Post# 18

Is it correct, that we must have a longer distance between the last reversal of the trend and the 23.6/78.4- Level, so that the trend can develop? Or is it acceptable, when the trend starts at the 0/100-Level for instance? Can you tell us your winrate?
The Random Walk theory does not give any indication of a trend. It just gives the possible levels of turning points (support and resistance). The winning percentage depends on how successfully you can assess the trend for that specific day.
A trader who is successful in evaluating the correct trend can even enter a trade at the opening of the new day and target "D1 Sup 0" for short target or "D1 Res 0" for a long target.

mattkirby Apr 4, 2017 9:10am | Post# 19

So the levels refresh every day at 00:00? (daily levels)

GoldTheHun Apr 4, 2017 9:16am | Post# 20

So the levels refresh every day at 00:00? (daily levels)
Exactly... Good Luck...


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