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narafa Jul 18, 2006 3:29pm | Post# 141

So this is the thread of the dollar bulls then

If the USD is going to the moon as mentioned, then gold is supposed to drop like a rock...I don't think this would happen anytime soon...What about oil?? Not a chance right now for trend reversals....

In my opinion, & that's my own opinion, gold have seen real profit taking yesterday & today since it started it's move up from $550 to $677...This profit taking brought the gold back to $630 & I am convinced that profit taking is not over yet...This sharp down move in gold moved the USD up sharply in the past 2 or 3 days...So, if we agree that the move down in gold was a pullback, then we agree that the move up by the USD is a pullback as well before it continues lower...

Any opinions out there ???


Thanks,

Nader

trucco Jul 18, 2006 3:53pm | Post# 142

my opinion:

I wait tomorrom moring (CET)for a better price to short gbp/usd.
I think it will go up again tomorrow morning (european session), especially in waiting for the <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" class="tborder" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt2">10:30am</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">UK</td> <td class="alt2">BOE Meeting Minutes</td></tr></thead> </table> After that , If the market move convice me, I will short it, in the wait of the US CPI and Bernanke testifing for senate. Then will see

trucco Jul 18, 2006 3:54pm | Post# 143

ofcourse this is the same for everything against the dollar. I trade the cable because I like it

trucco Jul 18, 2006 4:12pm | Post# 144

So i personally do this:

limit buy order gbp-usd 1,8245 which I expect to be filled tonight during the asian session.
I expect then between tonight and tomorrow morning-afternoon to move up to 1,8320 or more.
After that if my long order was filled I'll close the long and wait the best price to short.

I dont take any responsability

trucco Jul 18, 2006 4:35pm | Post# 145

I modified the buy order:

i split it into

1 buy order 1,8245 65% of amount i decided
2 buy order 1,8233 other 35%

Doest change much, but I prefer this way

pigifan Jul 18, 2006 5:59pm | Post# 146

"I wait tomorrom moring (CET)for a better price to short gbp/usd.
I think it will go up again tomorrow morning (european session), especially in waiting for the <TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt2>10:30am</TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle>UK</TD><TD class=alt2>BOE Meeting Minutes</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>After that , If the market move convice me, I will short it, in the wait of the US CPI and Bernanke testifing for senate. Then will see "

I wanted to short EUR/USD, GBP/USD today but seeing that Bernanke will speak this week I refrained from doing so. Bernanke is a disaster for the
dollar. From his printing press comments to the the more recent comments he is very dangerous. If Fed member Poole spoke instead it would definitely be $ favourable.

My guess is that Bernanke comments will cause a buying mania in EUR, GBP/USD that could last 2-3 days. Then maybe EUR will move back towards 1.2475. If it breaks 1.2470-5 then there will be a sharp move downwards.

trucco Jul 18, 2006 6:06pm | Post# 147

"I wait tomorrom moring (CET)for a better price to short gbp/usd.
I think it will go up again tomorrow morning (european session), especially in waiting for the <table class="tborder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" width="100%" align="center" border="0"><thead><tr><td class="alt2">10:30am</td><td class="alt2" align="center">UK</td><td class="alt2">BOE Meeting Minutes</td></tr></thead><tbody></tbody></table>After that , If the market move convice me, I will short it, in the wait of the US CPI and Bernanke testifing for senate. Then will see "

I wanted to short EUR/USD, GBP/USD today but seeing that Bernanke will speak this week I refrained from doing so. Bernanke is a disaster for the
dollar. From his printing press comments to the the more recent comments he is very dangerous. If Fed member Poole spoke instead it would definitely be $ favourable.

My guess is that Bernanke comments will cause a buying mania in EUR, GBP/USD that could last 2-3 days. Then maybe EUR will move back towards 1.2475. If it breaks 1.2470-5 then there will be a sharp move downwards.

Maybe , indeed I point now for a little long until tomorrow morning, and then, if Im sure about the move, I close the long (if filled from order) and open a short.
But apart of bernarke, which might also be a disaster, there are objective data like CPI released tomorrow also , and the market might prepare to the the 'worst option' and short euro or pound before release, just for speculation...

trucco Jul 18, 2006 6:13pm | Post# 148

Im talking only about the next asian and european session.
This is not a long term trade.
trade for tonight-tomorrow

sonnywinters Jul 18, 2006 7:13pm | Post# 149

ahoy mateys
 
it appears we are drifting back to where this thread started. i still hold a small position in eurusd shorts. i may choose to add to this position shortly.

pigifan Jul 18, 2006 7:27pm | Post# 150

Well, if 1.2470 is broken in the European session I'll definitely go short but I will cover my short a few minutes before the beloved Ben " I will print $ until they are worth less than toilet paper" Bernanke speaks .

I wouldn't bet on BoE issuing a hawkish statement, well, because the only hawk unexpectedly died a few days ago and we are left with the doves.
(The new appointments -which will affect not this but future meetings- will probably be doves as well because the chancellor who appoints them likes low interest rates to help him become prime minister.)

trucco Jul 18, 2006 7:37pm | Post# 151

Well, if 1.2470 is broken in the European session I'll definitely go short but I will cover my short a few minutes before the beloved Ben " I will print $ until they are worth less than toilet paper" Bernanke speaks .

I wouldn't bet on BoE issuing a hawkish statement, well, because the only hawk unexpectedly died a few days ago and we are left with the doves.
(The new appointments -which will affect not this but future meetings- will probably be doves as well because the chancellor who appoints them likes low interest rates to help him become prime minister.)
Yes, but any reason is good to move the prices for the market.
Look today. Good inflation data for UK and pound up.
Anyway, I expect to go up again to 1,83xx before going back again tomorrow morning-afternoon

trucco Jul 18, 2006 7:45pm | Post# 152

mh, 1,8247 now.. I dont know if to buy manually the first 65%

pigifan Jul 18, 2006 7:49pm | Post# 153

Good point. I think there will be enough strength to move to the 1.83 area before BoE minutes on expectation of a hawkish statement then on release maybe a 30 pip move down because it wasn't as hawkish as expected.
I think the futures price in two rate hikes for this year and they may have to readjust to one or none.

trucco Jul 18, 2006 7:52pm | Post# 154

I go to sleep now

I left the orders. if filled good , otherwise no problem

good night ff guys!

sonnywinters Jul 18, 2006 8:29pm | Post# 155

last part of the original position is in profit...
 
take it at your discretion...would suggest you try to get neutral ahead of tomorrow's mindnumbingly irrelevant market jump-arounds...

sonnywinters Jul 18, 2006 8:30pm | Post# 156

ok i get to crow........
 
this is my 17th correct trade in a row since i began posting here last week. somebody offer me a job...

Yardie Jul 18, 2006 10:32pm | Post# 157

LOL if you are still good six months from now then you can ask for jobs. There are a lot of people like yopurself that post good trades on a forum for 4 weeks, start a service and then start to flop.

this is my 17th correct trade in a row since i began posting here last week. somebody offer me a job...

trucco Jul 19, 2006 1:28am | Post# 158

I was filled into the first 65% only, because the other 35% was at 1,8233, and the bottom price tached was 1,8234..

Now is 1,8250. I put a stop loss on the entry price, to get out even in case, because I must go to work and cant maage in a different way now

take profit, i put 1,8296.

Rest I try to connect from work

bye!

trucco Jul 19, 2006 1:37am | Post# 159

I moved the stop to 1,8237. in case -8 pips stop loss.

entry price is too close

trucco Jul 19, 2006 2:34am | Post# 160

now i put the stop even at entry price
1,8245
up to you if you want to take 10 pips profit, but i would wait and keep stop even


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