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KeenPips Sep 11, 2016 9:42am | Post# 1

Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
 
Doing a weekly top-down technical scan and analysis of pairs ahead of each week is critical to effective, efficient and profitable trading. It helps the trader make the most of their time and spend appropriate time on the right things to do when the market is in session. What pairs to trade based on well-stipulated criteria, what to look for in tracking the market and what set-ups to best use are facilitated by proper planning and preparation which is enhanced by a thorough top-down technical analysis done ahead of the trading week, say, every Sunday.

One of the quotations I love in this regard is from Abraham Lincoln who said:

'Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.'

I am starting this thread because I want to share my weekly scan and analysis with FF members and I hope others who do such weekly scan and analysis based on a top-down technical approach will use this thread to share theirs with other members. However, this thread is not about any specific system and will not be used to teach traders specific techniques or strategies.

Posts on this thread should contain substantial narratives that describe the market structure, order flow context, key technical issues and significant price actions from the perspectives of the weekly, daily and 4-hourly time frames in that order. Then, appropriate charts to illustrate the narratives should be attached, at least covering the weekly and daily time frames. If the 4-hourly time frame helps bring out further insight, or clarifies certain aspects of the narrative, that should be included in the attachment.

Please, do not just post charts without narratives; in fact, the narrative should come first and then illustrated by the charts. Nevertheless, if your charts are well illustrated without being complicated or confusing, the amount of narrative can be reduced but the narrative should always come first.

Also, please do not post confusing, complicated or meaningless charts. The simpler they are the better.

The top-down technical analysis should be done ahead of the week and posted latest during the London open each Monday. Any mid-week update may follow and any post-analysis report or update during the week can be done but not for the purpose of show-off, ridicule or criticism.

Contributors to the thread should respect other contributors and abide by FF code of ethics. Personally, I will endeavour to post here twice a week.

Once in a while other items like videos, quotations, maxims and principles relevant to top-down technical analysis can be shared if they help foster consistent profutable trading.

Trade safe and well.

KP

Need to incorporate viewpoint from the monthly time frame


I am updating this post to inform readers and contributors that effective January 2017, I will be incorporating the viewpoint from the monthly time frame where it is relevant to do so. The monthly time frame gives a huge context for the weekly technical outlook, particularly to get a broader outlook, potential targets and turning points, beneficial to swing and position traders. It may not be necessary to get the monthly viewpoint in all cases but when such a viewpoint is likely to make the analysis more potent or clarify certain aspects of price action which may not be captured effectively on the weekly time frame, the outlook from the monthly time frame will be incorporated.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
January 1, 2017

KeenPips Sep 11, 2016 10:02am | Post# 2

4 Attachment(s)
AUDUSD Outlook

On the weekly time frame, after a period of sideways mode spanning six weeks, last week a bearish pin bar was formed which was a third of such bearish pin bars in that sideways mode. The other three candlesticks in the sideways mode were largely indecision bull candlestick. The main trendline on the weekly timeframe is downwards and has not yet been broken since April 2013. In fact, the sideways mode of the last six weeks were purely testing the trendline; the wick of last week's bearish pin bar retested the trendline. Essentially, the downtrend seems to be holding on the weekly timeframe.

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On the daily time frame, the pair has been trading in an ascending channel since May 30, 2016. Price action and RSI readings indicated that the ascending channel plateaued on August 8, 2016 and the pair is now on a downward mode. This is in line with the weekly trendline. Two relatively large bearish candlesticks formed last week Thursday and Friday on the daily time frame; last Fridays bearish candlestick tested the lower trendline of the ascending channel but did not break it. Thus, although the direction is strongly bearish, there is need for price to break the ascending channel to the downside. Otherwise, price may retrace upwards to retest the rejected resistance zone around 0.76946.

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On the 4-hourly time frame, price has moved strongly to the downside into a strong S/R zone. All the technicals on the 4-hourly time frame are pointing to the downside but there is need for price to reject the S/R zone to the downside and break the lower trendline of the ascending channel seen on the daily time frame.

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Besides, on the 4-hourly time frame, a mini trendline for the ascending channel can be seen to be unbroken since May 2016. After testing the mini trendline on September 1, 2016 price revisited it last week Friday. If price successfully breaks that mini trendline and then surges through the daily trendline below it, that should be a cue for a further southward push to test the next immediate support around 0.73900 0.73750.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

KeenPips Sep 11, 2016 3:59pm | Post# 3

2 Attachment(s)
USDCAD Outlook

On the weekly time frame the pair has been on an uptrend since August 2012. However, a downtrend move commenced in January 2016 but has not yet broken the major trendline. In fact, the move seems corrective as price started an upward channel in May 2016 which largely respected the main weekly trendline to the upside. Presently, price is somewhere in the middle of the range of the ascending channel with a bullish tone. A bullish pin bar formed last week and seems to be targeting the high of the gravestone doji bull candlestick formed two weeks ago. The price action is at a weekly S/R zone which has experienced two role flips since January 2014. Prior to that time, the zone was last visited and used as a resistance in March 2009. Very much likely the zone could flip to the upside since it was last used as a support in August 2004.

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On the daily time frame, it is apparent that the pair is respecting another ascending channel; a sub-trend line connecting the major trend's swing high on the daily time frame with the highs of the price action in the ascending channel needs to be broken upwards to give an indication of further upside move and the flip of the zone as a support. Otherwise, any rejection of the sub-trendline will see a retest of the lower portion of the channel on both the daily and, perhaps, the weekly time frames.

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On the 4-hourly time frame, the overall price action is choppy; which confirms the observation on the weekly and daily time frames that the pair is operating in a channel. Nevertheless, the most recent price action has seen the bulls very influential.

All the technicals I use are aligned for the upside on the weekly, daily and 4-hourly time frames.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

KeenPips Sep 11, 2016 5:24pm | Post# 4

4 Attachment(s)
NZDUSD Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on a downtrend since July 2014 until September 2015 when it moved upwards in an ascending channel. However, the channel has not broken the down trend market structure. Since the week beginning May 29, 2016 the pair has moved upwards to half-way of the channel, squeezing and limiting price action to that area. In that area, price has respected an ascending trend line within the main weekly ascending channel and has tested the upper trendline of the main weekly channel without breaching it. The recent price action on the weekly time frame has shown a disposition to the upside but there is a great amount of bear pressure as the candles formed have relatively long wicks on their upper ends. Thus, any rejection of the inner trendline within the main weekly channel is likely to see price test the lower trendline of the main weekly channel or at least the weekly support level around 0.72374 0.71398 giving the fact the high of the bull candlestick formed last week tested the weekly resistance zone around 0.73763 0.74896 but was pushed down by the bears to form a pin bar with a long upper wick. As other technicals on the weekly time frame favour a northward mode, in order to trade to the downside, the inner trendline on the weekly time frame needs to be broken.

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The technicals on the daily time frame point significantly to a southward mode. The main market structure is not yet broken, in fact the swing downwards created since July 11, 2014 which retraced upwards from the low created on September 29, 2016 has held within the 50 Fib level. From this level, recent price action on the daily time frame surged southwards with a strongly bearish tone. If the market structure is to hold, there is likely going to be a role flip to the downside.

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On the 4-hourly time frame, all technicals are synced for a southward drive of the pair. The market order context is strongly influenced by the bears after the price rejected the immediate weekly resistance with the first price wave downwards on September 8, 2016. Price is now at the immediate support level on the 4-hourly time frame and a rejection of the level to the south is likely to target the next support level around 0.72374 which is in confluence with the monthly pivot. As the daily and 4-hourly technicals are in sync for a southward mode, a trade southward for a small profit and without lingering in the market is feasible.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

smash1820 Sep 11, 2016 5:43pm | Post# 5

Subscribed! Top down analysis is one of the key ingredients in trading. I'll try to post some analysis soon/sometime this week.

KeenPips Sep 11, 2016 5:44pm | Post# 6

The weekly for NZDCAD is currently within a strong reversal/ supply&demand zone which may suggest the possibility of a reversal.. HOWEVER - On the weekly also is a very clean inverse H&S pattern that was completed Friday. Check it out could be a very nice trade to take for the week ahead. Ω
Penci, do follow the thread rules on posting. Read the first post. For example, you are to attach your top-down charts in addition to your narrative. Trade safe and well.

KP

Rnasr Sep 11, 2016 5:44pm | Post# 7

Subscribed !

KeenPips, Respect, Keep It Up

KeenPips Sep 11, 2016 5:57pm | Post# 8

Subscribed! Top down analysis is one of the key ingredients in trading. I'll try to post some analysis soon/sometime this week.
Very good, m8!

KP

KeenPips Sep 11, 2016 5:58pm | Post# 9

Subscribed ! KeenPips, Respect, Keep It Up
Thanks, mate. Appreciated and encouraged.

KP

smash1820 Sep 11, 2016 6:10pm | Post# 10

1 Attachment(s)
Here is a quick weekly analysis of my favorite pair, USD/JPY:

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The pair begins the week with a gap down of approximately 8 pips and is looking to be filled as I write this (probably next few hours). The Weekly, Daily, and 4 Hour charts appear to be bullish, although the 4H indicates the sellers will try to push this pair down, albeit, unsuccessfully.

1st target for the week is 103.00, resistance at 103.80, then again at 104.20.

At this point, I don't expect the pair to go beyond 104.20 THIS WEEK, although it is certainly possible, and I won't be surprised if it does. I just wouldn't count on it.

Good trading to all!

KeenPips Sep 12, 2016 10:23am | Post# 11

1 Attachment(s)
USDCAD Update

Based on the weekly technical analysis, USDCAD tones northwards. Therefore, the current bear mode is more likely to offer a good opportunity for a northward trade from a position such as shown in the attached 4H chart; very much close to the monthly pivot. I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

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KeenPips Sep 13, 2016 2:51pm | Post# 12

1 Attachment(s)
NZDUSD Update

Kiwi has moved further southwards in line with the overall technical tone. Trade safe and well.

KP

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KeenPips Sep 13, 2016 2:53pm | Post# 13

1 Attachment(s)
USDCAD Watch

Loonie has moved further northwards in line with the overall technical tone. Trade safe and well.

KP

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KeenPips Sep 13, 2016 4:39pm | Post# 14

2 Attachment(s)
AUDUSD Update

Aussie has moved further southwards in line with the overall technical tone. Trade safe and well.

KP

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KeenPips Sep 18, 2016 6:15pm | Post# 15

3 Attachment(s)
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the main trendline established in mid-2013 is downwards and is still intact. However, last week the pair broke to the downside the lower part of the ascending channel that tested the main trendline after the bearish pin bar formed two weeks ago, thus strengthening the bearish outlook. Furthermore, the technicals are bearing southwards. Thus, in essence, the downtrend seems to be holding on the weekly timeframe.

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Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Sunday_Sept._18,_2016.png
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On the daily time frame, the pair has breached to the downside the ascending channel it has been trading in since May 30, 2016. However, the breach has not yet been confirmed with a solid retest by price action. In fact, price action is still hovering around a daily S/R zone creating another channel just below the earlier one but the RSI readings and other technicals are in a southward mode. There is need for price to retest the lower trendline of the previous channel and reject the daily S/R zone southwards for confident trading to the downside more so as a new channel seems to be in play. If price completely breaks the earlier channel and rejects the daily S/R zone where it is currently operating, technically moving down in rejection of forming a new channel, such a price action is likely to see the pair test the immediate weekly support zone around 0.73240 and 0.73041 which was last tested on June 28, 2016. If the price fails to break southwards, in spite of the strong technicals in support, it is much likely that the pair will range for a while within the current daily S/R zone (between 0.74175 and 0.75732), which is proximal to the monthly pivot, or confirm the new ascending channel. This scenario is lent some weight by the two opposite daily candlesticks formed on Thursday and Friday last week. Although the Thursday candlestick was bullish while the Friday’s was opposite, the structure of the Friday’s candlestick actually showed that the bulls were still very much influential. Thus, price may form a new ascending channel just below the current one; this should be watched for a possible breakout to the downside.

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On the 4-hourly time frame, price is in a consolidation mode under a long-period EMA apparently testing the S/R zone which adjoins it. Last week the order flow context on the 4-Hourly time frame saw the bulls very much influential in taking the price upward towards testing the lower trendline of the ascending channel which was earlier breached during the week but the bears contested to keep the move in check. The most recent technical mode is mixed, but it is apparent from the RSI reading that the price is likely to make a northward move first before any southward mode is instigated. This is in line with the observation that a new ascending channel is being formed on the daily time frame. Any break of this new channel southwards may see price target the immediate weekly support zone around 0.73240 and 0.73041.

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Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Sunday_Sept._18,_2016.png
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

KeenPips Sep 18, 2016 6:21pm | Post# 16

3 Attachment(s)
BPNZD Weekly Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair has been in a downtrend mode since September 13, 2015. This was actually after a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downtrend which began on February 22, 2009. Since then pair has been on the downside with strong bearish control but the market structure has witnessed a few retracements and sideways since July 8, 2016. However, after a period of consolidation in the past five weeks, price action has shown a more bearish disposition and the technicals are in support. Nevertheless, such a move may be limited as price is already operating within a significant weekly support zone and the pair seems to be largely undervalued.

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On the daily time frame, the daily candlesticks of last week Thursday and Friday showed a bearish push apparently towards testing a support zone (around 1.77665) last visited on August 16, 2016. That level is an easier target than a further northward push to test the immediate resistance zone around 1.83132.

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On the 4-hourly time frame, the downtrend which was restored on July 20, 2016 after a retracement testing (filling) the gap created by the Brexit fundamentals in late June, is still very much in play. In fact, the market structure has not yet been broken and all technicals are in support of a further southward move. The order flow context shows larger bearish candles and stronger southwards move than bullish, even the corrective upward move began on September 9 failed to breach the downward trendline and ended in a strong rejection of further upward surge on September 15.

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Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Order_Flow_Sunday_Sept._18,_2016.png
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

KeenPips Sep 18, 2016 6:25pm | Post# 17

3 Attachment(s)
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair has been in a downtrend mode since June 29, 2014. This was actually after about 50.0 Fib retracement of the downtrend which began on November 4, 2011 and never broke the market structure. Since then the market has been on the southward drive with limited corrective modes. All the technicals favour further bearish play.

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On the daily time frame, price has been operating in a range spanning a weekly resistance zone and a weekly support zone since July 12, 2016. The most recent price moves have been towards the downside and the daily candlestick formed last week Friday was a relatively long bear candlestick which broke the lows of more than 23 candlesticks before it. This bearish move made a strong attempt to break the low of the range but failed. It would require further southwards move to take out that level and perhaps retest the swing low (1.28652) created on July 15; may then target the low (1.27910) of July 6. The technicals are in support of a further southward push.

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On the 4-hourly time frame, the pair has been on a downtrend since September 6 after a corrective move to the upside began on August 15 but which never breached the market structure on the weekly time frame. Although all technicals point to further southward move, price has just left a significant 4H S/R zone and moved into within a weekly support zone. It should require a retest of the 4H S/R zone, perhaps for a role flip, for a further southwards move to be confirmed. Otherwise, price may move northwards for a retest of the next immediate resistance zone which is in confluence with the monthly pivot.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

KeenPips Sep 18, 2016 6:32pm | Post# 18

3 Attachment(s)
USDCAD Weekly Outlook

On the weekly time frame the pair has been on an uptrend since August 2012. Even though a downtrend move commenced in January 2016, it did not break the market structure of primarily a market in an uptrend. The price action last week has strengthened the bullish impact with a strong and relatively big bull candlestick and price has largely respected the ascending channel began in May 2016. All the technicals support a further upward push.

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The same thing operates on the daily time frame. However, any rejection of a mini trendline to the downside may see a bearish mode for price to range around the immediate support just below the mini trendline before targeting a significant 4H support zone near the monthly pivot.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

KeenPips Sep 20, 2016 3:00am | Post# 19

2 Attachment(s)
AUDUSD Update

Price has continued operating within the ascending channel and yet to reject the channel to either side. Atm price action is testing the 50.0 Fib level of the most recent swing low. As can be seen in the attached daily and 4-hourly charts, there is confluence of resistance around the monthly pivot, a few mini-trendlines and 50/61.8 Fibs.

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Note the below excerpts of the weekly outlook, particularly the ones in bold type.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP


...On the daily time frame, the pair has breached to the downside the ascending channel it has been trading in since May 30, 2016. However, the breach has not yet been confirmed with a solid retest by price action. In fact, price action is still hovering around a daily S/R zone creating another channel just below the earlier one but the RSI readings and other technicals are in a southward mode. There is need for price to retest the lower trendline of the previous channel and reject the daily S/R zone southwards for confident trading to the downside...

KeenPips Sep 20, 2016 8:32am | Post# 20

1 Attachment(s)
GBPNZD Update

Price has breached a micro-trendline on the 4H time frame to the downside and likely to test the support zone (around 1.77665) last visited on August 16, 2016.

See attached.

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Trade safe and well.

KP

....On the 4-hourly time frame, the downtrend which was restored on July 20, 2016 after a retracement testing (filling) the gap created by the Brexit fundamentals in late June, is still very much in play. In fact, the market structure has not yet been broken and all technicals are in support of a further southward move...


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