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-   -   How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=605011)

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 7:22am | Post# 61

{quote} If you think the map thing is right (i.e works) your delusional... there is no such map I said otherwise you would own the market and the fact that you struggling to trade consistently for many years and make billions implies you can't see a map or anything of the kind perhaps you're wearing sunnies lol and all you are explaining is if you stay long enough in a market you might get lucky and have price come back to the side you wanted it to get to but that doesn't always happen. But you would know that if you were a successful trader?

Exactly, again you have stated a fact - as you quoted "explaining is if you stay long enough in a market you might get lucky"

Definitely I could not agree more, We are holding yen at 99 are we not? and scaling of from February 121 Shorts? . That is called a Position Trade. Influences in the market include Position Traders and long term investors. I am not here to talk about scalping. And yes just hold it buy the opposite correlation -trading basic

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 7:24am | Post# 62

Interesting thread, subscribed! Might I suggest you gather all the key points into the first several posts? As the thread grows, it will be very difficult to follow your train of thought across dozens of pages.
Yes I know, its going to be difficult as its not mechanical. This stuff gonna get wild when we get past trading basic..................

This may help:

FLOOR PIVOTS HERES SOME BASIC STUFF PRINTED IN TRADER MANUALS

" do not undertake the work unless I see my way clear to a profit."

Jesse Livermore , Larry Williams, Williams, Ochoa

COPY PASTE FROM Frank Ochoa

The first significant awakening of my trading career occurred when I first discovered the power of Floor Pivots. Until then, I was trading solely off chart patterns and candlestick combinations and never knew there was an underlying road map to each chart I traded. Once the Floor Pivots were revealed me, however, a completely different gear was reached in my trading and market analysis. I felt as though I had finally joined the trading elite. Floor Pivots have been around for a long time and many traders have used these pivots to master the market for decades. Larry Williams re-popularized the formula by including it in his book, How I Made One
Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities, in 1979. He described the "Pivot Price Formula" that he used to arrive at the next day's probable high or low. Many great traders have adopted the pivots and have even incorporated them into many indicators that you may know today. While these pivots can go by many names, including Pivot Points, Floors, or just pivots, I typically call them the Floor Pivots since they really became popular once traders on the floors of the a"{changes began to use them. The pivots were a simple way for floor traders to forecast the day's potential support and resistance levels, since they didn't have sophisticated computers on the floors of the exchanges at the time. This name also helps to distinguish them from other types of pivot points, since there are other types that are unrelated to the ones we will discuss.
Floor Pivots are extremely powerful price-based support and resistance levels that are calculated using a prior period's high, low, and close.
Floor Pivots offer an amazing way to view the market. They are like night-vision goggles, illuminating the moves of the market even in the most uncertain of times. As you begin to study the pivots on a deeper level, you will begin to see the correlated nature Have ever seen are the Floor Pivots and price behavior. The main reason these pivots can be so unbelievably accurate is the simple fact that market participants are watching and trading these key levels. Trader psychology, and human nature for that matter, has remained the same for centuries due to fear, greed, hope, and uncertainty. These are the reasons why traders continue to react to key levels in the charts the same way over and over again. This is also the reason why these pivots have stood the test of time and will continue to work into the future. We will delve deeper into Floor Pivots in this chapter and will unlock extremely powerful concepts that run deep in the market.

kef2138 Sep 2, 2016 7:33am | Post# 63

{quote} Yes I know, its going to be difficult as its not mechanical. This stuff gonna get wild when we get past trading basic
Fair enough.

So let me make sure I got it right:

Investors and Position Traders are long-term traders and use monthly pivot points as guidance.
Swing Traders use weekly points
Day Traders - daily pivot points.

One more thing. The initial balance: do you use it for Double Distribution days only? Or can it be applied to predict other types of trading days as well?

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 7:55am | Post# 64

{quote} Fair enough. So let me make sure I got it right: Investors and Position Traders are long-term traders and use monthly pivot points as guidance. Swing Traders use weekly points Day Traders - daily pivot points. One more thing. The initial balance: do you use it for Double Distribution days only? Or can it be applied to predict other types of trading days as well?
Initial Balance we use for all 6 market days! Will show later on how you can predict the market day from the initial balance for the 5 remaining market days not yet covered.

​For Professional Trader terms:

Yes your correct, Day traders are considered as Scalpers in the professional world of trading. Not by the pip value but by the time frame as they would reach there target within a day, Thats a scalp.

Swing Traders could be in a trade anything up to a week.

Position traders expectations are to be in the initial trade for a month before short cover.

Long term Investors the yearly levels there interested in.

I am all of the above apart from Swing trading because that require times when you trade against the fundamentals, and that I dont do ever


A good point , most traders cant describe professionally what type of trader they are and who there trading against.

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 8:04am | Post# 65

Back to NFP, my play by play is as in the chart earlier posted on UJ all the pending orders are there and all the short term targets are clearly visible. See ya later


Have a good NFP, then on Tuesday we can trade the follow - up footprints

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 8:48am | Post# 66

1 Attachment(s)
S1 market order picked up was hoping to get filled on S2 as well but not happened....thats how easy it is
[attach]2008657[/attach]

kef2138 Sep 2, 2016 8:51am | Post# 67

S1 market order picked up was hoping to get filled on S2 as well but not happened....thats how easy it is {image}
Was just checking to see how it went. Well played!

countex Sep 2, 2016 8:53am | Post# 68

wow. nicely done

You make it look easy

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 8:59am | Post# 69

Yes, now the hardest part is how long to hold the trade. Do you stick with the plan or fiddle. Me I would rather loose my earning on this trade if the market refuses my targets. Thats the discipline that you must master.

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:01am | Post# 70

But I dont have to be scared I know the professional day traders are target R1 R3. And if we dont reach it today, will buy again at value and reach our target next week.

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:04am | Post# 71

well r 1 approaching fast will take half profit at this place and carry remainder of trade to R2. Half TP at R1 for a new LG washing machine.

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:05am | Post# 72

R1 achieved next target in my play by play R2

kef2138 Sep 2, 2016 9:08am | Post# 73

But I dont have to be scared I know the professional day traders are target R1 R3. And if we dont reach it today, will buy again at value and reach our target next week.
Question: as daily resistance points change on Monday, do you shift to those targets or keep today's levels?

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:12am | Post# 74

R1 achieved next target in my play by play R2
Guys lets get one thing straight ...I am here to help anyone who want help to learn some of this stuff that I picked up on from some great friends and great trading buddies. I may seem crass at times, but I am purly translating the market for you and how to plot your play. Tuesday will trade the foot prints. NFP Initial balance will be in play for the remainder of the month. And its Support and resistance zone will be pivotal for plotting the next phase your monthly Postiton trade with correlation to NFP levels and the monthly pivots.

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:17am | Post# 75

{quote} Question: as daily resistance points change on Monday, do you shift to those targets or keep today's levels?

Ah good good good question. This play is a day trader play. I will not hold this Position over the weekend. Monday day trader entries and target will shift with the new daily pivot open.

The professional Position Traders wont even be taking notes of what I am doing, they will still be holding from 99.50 and this is just noise to them there looking only to short cover at 106 towards month end. Thats means value at 99.50 so they will lock in profits on the way up and hedge with short at retracement zones

If answers not clear just ask again

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:33am | Post# 76

Just to simplify things for newer traders. do you see that the CPR in the chart below white and orange lines helps you determine a daily center of gravity. And the Grey lines which are daily pivot points help you to determine reasonable targets. See how GU above reached R3 and pulled back? Now we can determine what the professional day traders are doing. On this day on GU ! a tight initial balance on the Central Daily Pivot point was to good to miss as this correlated with the Weekly central Pivot point. Market hit R3, a reasonable target for day...

There you go guys GU as we said back then target 1.338

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:47am | Post# 77

Now that was the easy stuff..............compared to when it all goes wrong. But when ite goes wrong there are many ways to make it right....thats when it gets interesting for me as thats the only part in trading that remains challenging. If you have a bad trade tell me I am not scared to give you a play by play on it. That gets the juices flowing.

Next on this thread will go deeper into initial balance and opening range. Then take a look at the correlation between .

1 Pivot Width - Opening Range - to plot the type of market day ahead
2- Then will look at inside and outside Value
3 - Then will look at the power of confluence
4 Then you be ready to trade the floor pivots
5 - Then the most important thing of All - how to know your fundamentals - use em there brilliant

mattkirby Sep 2, 2016 9:59am | Post# 78

thanks Dennis. This is a thread with value and something to learn from..........that's not to find too often here on FF. Keep on!

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 9:59am | Post# 79

{quote} Guys lets get one thing straight ...I am here to help anyone who want help to learn some of this stuff that I picked up on from some great friends and great trading buddies. I may seem crass at times, but I am purly translating the market for you and how to plot your play. Tuesday will trade the foot prints. NFP Initial balance will be in play for the remainder of the month. And its Support and resistance zone will be pivotal for plotting the next phase your monthly Postiton trade with correlation to NFP levels and the monthly pivots.

This sounds crapy above.........all i was trying to say is im here to help.....and your all brothers

Dennis1468 Sep 2, 2016 10:09am | Post# 80

thanks Dennis. This is a thread with value and something to learn from..........that's not to find too often here on FF. Keep on!
Thanks bro, ..................................all whats on my mind right now is will the professional days traders hold there nerve to push up to R2. I will , have the confidence that i took half profit at r 1


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