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-   -   How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=605011)

Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 4:06pm | Post# 1

How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value
 
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More then 2 decades ago I started trading and did reasonably well for about a year and figured that's it! I will be self-employed and my life will be awesome. Things did not work out that way.

My first mistake was that I thought I could be self- employed on limited capital and my second mistake was thinking that 2% leverage is ok on every trade.

Things went reasonably well until I wanted to learn more and followed the Gurus. With there great wisdom my clean charts ended anything but clean.

It was then art on charts! RSI/Stochastic/ Mac D/SMAs yes you guessed it, all those things that will lose money real fast

About 2 years past and not going anywhere with apart from looing money and trying to recover. I learned a lot in the past decades on how to make money in markets.

Yes, you can make money and this thread will take you into a better level of Trading and you may choose to trade as a full-time career or to work and Trade which is possible to.

Moving forward I will share what I do and how I do it. How I make it work and what I do when it doesn't work.

Hope this will be fun for everyone and fun comes with benefits...
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Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 4:24pm | Post# 2

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Its not always as easy as this!
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Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 4:46pm | Post# 3

Types of Market Days

"Your ability to determine which market participants are influencing price will allow you to judge the conviction and behavior of price movement"

​In my post above of the Japanese yen its obviously 13 Trend Days in a row. But there are 5 other types of market days in all and all have importance. Will cover all in time at a walking pace.

1 -Trend day
2 -Double Distribution Day
3- Typical Day
4- Expanded Typical Day
5 Range Day
6 -Sideways day

''those that deploy there capitol the right way on the day consecutively master the markets"

OAPDave Aug 31, 2016 4:56pm | Post# 4

Good stuff my friend, you know I am a fan, wish you well knowing this is going to be a very interesting thread, so lets get cracking

Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 5:01pm | Post# 5

Thanks dave for your support, will plot it down in this place...

OAPDave Aug 31, 2016 5:14pm | Post# 6

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13 days ?
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OAPDave Aug 31, 2016 5:21pm | Post# 7

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Sorry sent wrong chart here is the usd/jpy
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Name: USDJPY D1 (08-31-2016 2217).png
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Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 5:22pm | Post# 8

Types of Professional Traders

"Your ability to determine which market participants are influencing price will allow you to judge the conviction and behavior of price movement"

1 Investors
2 Position Traders
3 Swing Traders
4 Day Traders

From here but tomorrow I will Cover Market Days and how each of the 4 professional types of traders plot there play.

Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 5:27pm | Post# 9

Types of Professional Traders "Your ability to determine which market participants are influencing price will allow you to judge the conviction and behavior of price movement" 1 Investors 2 Position Traders 3 Swing Traders 4 Day Traders From here but tomorrow I will Cover Market Days and how each of the 4 professional types of traders plot there play.
Thanks Dave, I do have a market order not filled at 99 as a position trade on UJ. I dont expect a Gap back but a market order there could may well catch a spike and get filled. From a day trade Perspective a market order at 10.2 50 seems reasonable and if we dont break 103 to the down side then will be targeting 104 - 105.However so Close to NFP is can turn out range bound. Will see tomorrows play on Asian/London open.

Subdued at 103. 50 well position traders are covering there longs with shorts to lock in profits.

Soekarno Aug 31, 2016 5:33pm | Post# 10

like your summary
follow your thread brooooo

Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 5:45pm | Post# 11

like your summary follow your thread brooooo

Thanks everyone...to be continued......turning in for the night

Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 5:45pm | Post# 12

Sorry sent wrong chart here is the usd/jpy {image}

Thanks Dave, I do have a market order not filled at 99 as a position trade on UJ. I dont expect a Gap back but a market order there could may well catch a spike and get filled. From a day trade Perspective a market order at 10.2 50 seems reasonable and if we dont break 103 to the down side then will be targeting 104 - 105.However so Close to NFP is can turn out range bound. Will see tomorrows play on Asian/London open.

Subdued at 103. 50 well position traders are covering there longs with shorts to lock in profits.

gal007 Aug 31, 2016 5:53pm | Post# 13

Thanks dave for your support, will plot it down in this place...
Looking forward to joining this Journey and having an input.

Gaza

Dennis1468 Aug 31, 2016 5:55pm | Post# 14

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Heres my overnight pending order on UJ on the chart. If it works against me then will trade out of it on EU which will be interesting
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Name: pending day trade market order for tom Chart_USD_JPY_5 Mins_snapshot.png
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Pipglutton Sep 1, 2016 12:34pm | Post# 15

{quote} Thanks everyone...to be continued......turning in for the night
Hi Dennis.
Well done buddy. Hope you cater for us knuckleheads as well. We not all gurus like you and Dave...

Sleep well.
Rgds
Pieter

Dennis1468 Sep 1, 2016 1:39pm | Post# 16

{quote} Hi Dennis. Well done buddy. Hope you cater for us knuckleheads as well. We not all gurus like you and Dave... Sleep well. Rgds Pieter
we are all brothers

Dennis1468 Sep 1, 2016 1:50pm | Post# 17

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Types of Market Days

2 -Double Distribution Trend Day

The double distribution trend day opens with a narrow initial balance. The initial balance is the base for any day 's trading. A narrow initial balance breaks easerly, but a wide initial balance is harder to break. The fact that the initial balance is narrow on this type of day indicates that there is a good possibility of a breakout from the opening range and subsequent initial range, indicating that you will see a move toward new value. Below chart demonstrate DDT Day.
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Dennis1468 Sep 1, 2016 2:02pm | Post# 18

Try to visualize the box with the initial balance on open in the above chart. Its narrow and with its initial range you can plot its high and low! Therefore if the first distribution fails and pulls back below the initial opening balance then you can look to plot a sell to capture the remainder of the day. Visa versa if the first distribution is opposite to the chart i.e 1 st distribution is short.

OAPDave Sep 1, 2016 2:45pm | Post# 19

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Are you talking something like this if so what times are you talking
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Dennis1468 Sep 1, 2016 3:12pm | Post# 20

Are you talking something like this if so what times are you talking {image}
I am assuming your charts shows the opening range at the start of the day i.e The Initial Balance Range established from the first hour of trading based on daily pivot point being set on standard Eastern to show the day open. So the IB is from the Low to the High from the first hour of the open. I normally gauge this using 15 bar charts.


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