It is indeed a good strategy to make tons of money (1 million dollars using 500) if you can achieve nett 11 winning trades with 1:2 risk to reward ratio. However, it seems quite impossible, though statistically it's possible.
this is similar to the turtles money management strategy. they put on more postions when the trade went in their favour....
when you win, win big. this is how they were able to live with less than 50% win ratio and still make good profit.
You are a generous person, all the time helping traders. Can you please code this EA for manual trading (analysis) for my following strategy?
My strategy has been making money for me as I have put my faith in medium term trend of GBP getting weaker until Brexit and JPY getting stronger until it hits 1.04.
I use this strategy only when I have accumulated profits by doing scalping.
When I have accumulated profits in my account I switch to short-term swing/position trading and with the comfort of having a buffer margin I don't use stoploss for each trade as a risk control. Instead I use dollar cost (pips) averaging in case position turns adverse.
I split one position to be traded in 4 slices.
The scaling (slicing) of the lot is done based on the volatility measured in pips of the last four weeks
I select highest of last four weekly bars as my stop loss point and then ensure enough maintenance margin is in my account to support the drawdown.
For trend-following strategy you have to bear with this kind of drawdown if we are to make substantial gains.
If I select 800 pips (or 8000 pipettes) then I will create a ladder of 200 pips (2000 pipettes) and in case of short selling, I will keep selling GBPJPY for every 200 pips up to a maximum of 4 slices. The position is killed when if hits drawdown stop.
I have always made money following this big stoploss strategy and have never lost. In fact, I have never been able to enter the fourth lot at any stage in last five months and so never have gone near the stoploss position.
But MSG1987 has shown a new way which I am sure will work far better than my method. It is fantastic money management idea. It will work for my setup.
By following Reverse Martingale my drawdown risk will be substantially controlled. If I keep 100 pips (1000 pipettes) as stop loss and scale up profits it will control risk considerably. I will be able to enter 8 times as against faced with drawdown for a few days.
Can you please programme this strategy of GBPJPY in your EA with this logic:
Enter first lot when the price is at a distance of 40/50/60 pips (selectable) from open (close bar of last bar) price of the bar or single Moving Average with a stoploss of selected pips. I trade on pullbacks and retracements and average when reversal happens.
Trade #1: Sell 1 Lots of GBPJPY @ 157.80 SP: 158.80 TP: 155.80 total Risk: 100 pips Potential Profit: 200 pips
Trade #2: Sell 2 Lots of GBPJPY @ 155.80 SP: 156.80 TP: 153.80 total Risk: 200 pips Potential Profit: 400 pips
Trade #3: Sell 4 Lots of GBPJPY @ 153. 80 SP: 154.80 TP: 151.80 Risk: 400 pips Potential Profit: 1600 pips
I will test it extensively in real trading and post the verified results.
Your idea is fantastic. Can you please suggest a similar strategy which can bring down Breakeven price in case the position turns adverse.
it's not a bad idea. You need to win the first trade, and then you need to win the second trade before you can make any money.
Given the r:r on each individual trade in the example is 2:1 the win rate on an individual trade will likely be below 50%, and then the chance of 2 consecutive wins will be less.. two consecutive wins will cover 2 losses which didn't have to be consecutive. Equity will decrease over time, with sharp spikes up when you get the 3 or more consecutive wins - it's just stomaching the decreasing account balance waiting for the consecutive wins to happen a lot of traders will find difficult.
This EA Open BUY ONLY and Open 3x PO BUY only.
Work only one time attach. it wont open transaction again until you Re-attach this EA on new chart.
tes BUY Only martingale reverse EA.ex4
Tested it and it's great
Is it possible to do one for SELL ONLY?
Thanking you in advance.
Many thanks go to msg1987 for starting this thread on this interesting topic. It has not progressed too much so far but hopefully will garner more interest going forward. I have never traded Reverse Martingale but it is an idea I have been interested in for a while.
Below I have put forward a slightly alternative method which hopefully will help stimulate further discussion about Reverse Martingale. The version below has the disadvantage that if trade 1, 2 or 3 loses breaking the sequence a loss of 1% would occur which ever trade no. loses, which is worse than the post 1 version but has the advantage of making potentially more profit.
Simnz, raised an interesting option in increasing the SL and TP for each trade in the reverse martingale trade sequence. I like the fact that as the trend develops the SL gets bigger therefore accommodating larger retracements (hopefully). The downside of course is the need to compensate, by increasing the targets.
Another idea on how to trade this technique might be as follows:
1. On D1 charts look for chart patterns where price is at a good reversal area and wait for a Price Action reversal signal. E.g. Price is overbought at a strong area of resistance in a weekly downtrend. An entry signal might be a pin bar rejection at resistance followed by a bearish engulfing candle.
2. Important: Make sure Fundamentals support your trade direction for both currencies.
After you have decided to enter the trade (but before entry)
3. Ascertain a good final exit point where trade 3 of the whole sequence will reach target (in this case giving a total of 26% profit with max. risk of just 1% in the sequence)
4. Divide the pip total from entry to trade 3 TP into 3 separate trades, each with the succeeding trade having 1.5 times the SL and TP.
If you had a long entry signal on the EURUSD at 1:1200 with a potential final target of 1:1675
Trade 1: At 1.1200 buy EURUSD (1% risk) with 50 pip SL (1.1150) and 100 pip TP (1.1300). If price reaches TP trade is closed (2% profit gained)
Trade 2: At 1.1300 buy EURUSD (3% risk) with 75 pip SL (1.1225) and 150 pip TP (1.1450). If price reaches TP trade is closed (6% profit gained)
Trade 3: At 1.1450 buy EURUSD (9% risk) with 112 pip SL (1:1338) and 225 pip TP (1.1675). If price reaches TP trade and whole sequence is closed. (18% profit gained and 26% gained total on whole sequence)
Hope my maths is correct.
If trade 1 loses. Loss to account is 1%
If trade 2 loses. Net loss is 1% in the sequence as trade 1 would have gained 2%
If trade 3 loses. Net loss again is 1% as trade 1 would have gained 2%, trade 2, 6%
Even with increased SL distances it would still be very easy for some spike or extended retracement to take out 1 of the trades and kill the sequence. To help counteract this an option would be to wait for a retracement after each trade is successfully closed. In a short trade sequence, after trade 1 is completed a swing low would form and then you would enter trade 2 after the retracement equal to say D1 ATR.
I will follow this up with a real life example.
An example as per detail in my last post:
AUDJPY formed a good reversal pattern on D1 chart in December 2015. This formed at a significant resistance area, see D1chart.
A decent entry point would be at the close of the bearish engulfing D1 candle on 07/12/15.
Trade 1 entry at 89.60, SL 50 pips (90.10), TP 100 pips (88.60)
Price reached trade 1 TP on 08/12/15. D1 ATR 5 on 08/12/15 was 102 pips, so wait for a 102 pip plus retracement.
Trade 2 would have triggered about 2:30am on 10/12/2015. At this time there was major AUD employment data released which is usually quite market moving and was in this case. Trade entry (unless for long term position trades) should always be avoided at or before major news releases like this. Assuming this news spike was avoided entry could have been at the same level as indicated or after the news at a higher (better) price.
Trade 2 entry at 88.32, SL 75 pips (89.07), TP 150 pips (86.82)
Price reached trade 2 TP on 11/12/15. D1 ATR 5 on 11/12/15 was 146 pips, so wait for a 146 pip plus retracement.
Trade 3 entry at 87.98 on 15/12/15, SL 112 pips (89.10), TP 225 pips (85.73)
Trade 3 target would have been reached on 04/01/16, realising 26% profit in the sequence.
Interesting to note that in this particular case a 4th trade would have reached target also. By raising the trade sizes as above, (so trade 4 would risk 27%) a total profit on a 4 sequence win would be 80%. (Again if my maths is correct). TBO I don't know if I would be very keen to risk 27% of my account even if I had just made 26%. Note that all risk percentages used for each trade should be based on account equity at the beginning of the sequence otherwise results would be skewed.
sory my limited knowledge about coding.
tes SELL Only martingale reverse EA.ex4
Could you kindly check your SELL ONLY EA because I think it's opening pending orders which are 100 pips apart.
It should be 10 pips gap between the pending orders.
I could be wrong so kindly check.
This is nothing special, you are just stacking..
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