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kalawe May 19, 2016 11:50pm | Post# 41

kalawe, Could you kindly check your SELL ONLY EA because I think it's opening pending orders which are 100 pips apart. It should be 10 pips gap between the pending orders. I could be wrong so kindly check. Thanks again.


Sell EA is the same with Buy EA. Spread can make little different the result of PO.


@ 1.1200 SP: 1.1150 TP: 1.1300 Risk: 50 pips >>> The rules is 100pips

Gap from what ?

goldcourse May 20, 2016 12:38am | Post# 42

{quote} Sell EA is the same with Buy EA. Spread can make little different the result of PO. @ 1.1200 SP: 1.1150 TP: 1.1300 Risk: 50 pips >>> The rules is 100pips Gap from what ?
Hi kalawe,

Sorry, I misunderstood the rules.

Thanks

simnz May 20, 2016 1:04am | Post# 43

An example as per detail in my last post: AUDJPY formed a good reversal pattern on D1 chart in December 2015. This formed at a significant resistance area, see D1chart. A decent entry point would be at the close of the bearish engulfing D1 candle on 07/12/15. Trade 1 entry at 89.60, SL 50 pips (90.10), TP 100 pips (88.60) Price reached trade 1 TP on 08/12/15. D1 ATR 5 on 08/12/15 was 102 pips, so wait for a 102 pip plus retracement. Trade 2 would have triggered about 2:30am on 10/12/2015. At this time there was major AUD employment data released...
Thank you for putting it together in clear visuals.

Now we have to figure out
(a) which currency pair and timeframe can be so volatile as to deliver 3 consecutive wins in a row - one with a lot of volatility like GBPJPY or one with trending tendency like USDCAD or one with mean-reverting pattern like EURUSD
(b) at what distance we should place SL and TP to make it happen
(c) which environment is ideal and what could be triggers - news event, Monthly support/ resistance or fibo levels
(d) and when to enter - during London hours? Asian hours or US hours?

If a straddle can be programmed via EA may be we can try on the big anticipated news event day.

simnz May 20, 2016 1:18am | Post# 44

{quote} Sell EA is the same with Buy EA. Spread can make little different the result of PO. @ 1.1200 SP: 1.1150 TP: 1.1300 Risk: 50 pips >>> The rules is 100pips Gap from what ?
HI Kalawe,

Could you please convert into a straddle for Eurusd with first order being placed at 120 pips on both sides of the price, triggered by our selection of time . If we select 8.30 pm then the EA should post two limit orders one to buy after the price has travelled to 120 pips and another to sell after the price has gone down by 120 pips. The input to cancel the ordder in terms of minutes should be there so that if the price doesn't gain volatility for certain time, the trade should be abandoned.

Once the position is triggered (whatever be it buy or sell) then the reverse martingale postions should be activated. And the opposite entry limit order be cancelled.
There is a possibility of both happening in case of very violent moves. We can't do much about it. News events carry this risk happening in case of straddles.

dimmerpixel May 20, 2016 3:12am | Post# 45

Hi Everyone! I learned this strategy recently and it is quite incredible so I thought I'd share it with you and see what you think? As we all know and have heard over and over again, ou ....................
Trade #1: Buy 0.01 Lots of EURUSD @ 1.1200 SP: 1.1150 TP: 1.1300 Risk: 50 pips Potential Profit: 100 pips
Trade #2: Buy 0.02 Lots of EURUSD @ 1.1300 SP: 1.1250 TP: 1.1400 Risk: 50 pips Potential Profit: 100 pips
Trade #3: Buy 0.04 Lots of EURUSD @ 1.1400 SP: 1.1350 TP: 1.1500 Risk: 50 pips Potential Profit: 100 pips
.................
msg1987, my friend, you have a VERY BASIC, FAMOUS, AGES, SUPER BIG question that all traders in the world have to answer first

do you have to buy OR sell ? (the first trade in your case)

some stories says that an EA, or somebody, can get 60-40 winning ratio, that was super if exist
for me, if only we had a 50-50 winning chance, we dont need that system anymore, believe me : )

theras2000 May 26, 2016 5:53am | Post# 46

{quote} Thank you for putting it together in clear visuals. Now we have to figure out (a) which currency pair and timeframe can be so volatile as to deliver 3 consecutive wins in a row - one with a lot of volatility like GBPJPY or one with trending tendency like USDCAD or one with mean-reverting pattern like EURUSD (b) at what distance we should place SL and TP to make it happen (c) which environment is ideal and what could be triggers - news event, Monthly support/ resistance or fibo levels (d) and when to enter - during London hours? Asian hours...
Yeah, there are a lot of variables.
TBH, I am not a big fan of straddle type trades at big news announcements. Though I did try using the free FNG software from Forexpeacearmy site a while ago. I think about the 1st 9 out of 10 trades were profitable but the huge slippage you get reduces the profit to the point it doesn't really seem worth the effort. If you managed to get the trade direction mixed up when setting up the software (easier than you think) would probably result in a huge loss as it would be likely your SL would get severely slipped. I think the trouble is you are competing with super fast computers with very low latency. And of course they are going to get a price much better than you and I can get on a home computer.
Back to reverse martingale, I was thinking for an entry signal something along the lines of maybe a Bollinger Band squeeze breakout trade on say a weekly Timeframe. Sometimes these breakouts can be quite explosive.

simnz May 26, 2016 11:20pm | Post# 47

{quote} Yeah, there are a lot of variables. TBH, I am not a big fan of straddle type trades at big news announcements. Though I did try using the free FNG software from Forexpeacearmy site a while ago. I think about the 1st 9 out of 10 trades were profitable but the huge slippage you get reduces the profit to the point it doesn't really seem worth the effort. If you managed to get the trade direction mixed up when setting up the software (easier than you think) would probably result in a huge loss as it would be likely your SL would get severely...
In fact, I have been thinking along having Bollinger Band squeeze breakout trade for reverse martingale. But I realise if reverse martingale can be linked to
cycle trading of equity trend trading, may be it will work.
Mastermind has done tremendous work on cycle trading and now I am trying to learn it and see if reverse martingale position slicing can work with it.
I use Interactive Brokers (very economical fees and very small ask/bid spread for all currency pairs) and unlike all the big retail fx spot traders the spreads are narrow and there is no deliberate attempt to hunts stops on the eve of news announcements or widen the spreads as all the retail fx brokers tend to do on an ongoing basis.
The minimum deposit to open however is $10K.Even if you make 2 pips out of each trade on IB you will make good profit. Which is not possible on other fx retail platforms.

simnz May 29, 2016 4:59am | Post# 48

Many thanks go to msg1987 for starting this thread on this interesting topic. It has not progressed too much so far but hopefully will garner more interest going forward. I have never traded Reverse Martingale but it is an idea I have been interested in for a while. Below I have put forward a slightly alternative method which hopefully will help stimulate further discussion about Reverse Martingale. The version below has the disadvantage that if trade 1, 2 or 3 loses breaking the sequence a loss of 1% would occur which ever trade no. loses, which...
From Tuesday I will trade live on it. I think this is doable for EURUSD pair and maybe for EURGBP as well for time being until Brexit triggered volatility will take over the markets.

theras2000 Jun 1, 2016 7:14am | Post# 49

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} From Tuesday I will trade live on it. I think this is doable for EURUSD pair and maybe for EURGBP as well for time being until Brexit triggered volatility will take over the markets.
Ok good simnz, hope it goes/has gone well. Tell us how you get on.

Just taken a trade to try it out also. (on very small risk)

NOKSEK has recently broken above the D1 200SmaMA and is in an uptrend.
On H4 chart shown below, recent price action has retraced back towards the 200Sma a few times and then bounced.
Price has also recently retraced and looks like it is forming a double bottom. My trade idea is to buy at the orange envelope line with TP blue line and SL purple line. (giving close to 1:2 Risk/reward trade). If my first trade wins I will try again at 3 times the size of first trade and if that wins try once more with 8 times as indicated in previous post.
One slight problem with this pair is the spread widening overnight because the pair is not very liquid. You can see the 2 recent big white candles which hit the purple (SL) line recently. I am using a different broker to this mt4 demo account for my live trades so hopefully this won’t be too much of an issue.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Noksek1.png
Size: 61 KB

simnz Jun 2, 2016 2:29am | Post# 50

Great . You have chosen NOKSEK. I want to try GBPJPY because of its volatility. GBPJPY volatility: Should I base on weekly high-low volatility and input the pips in the bands. Should I link the bands to Moving Average or purely to pips?

theras2000 Jun 2, 2016 5:57am | Post# 51

Great . You have chosen NOKSEK. I want to try GBPJPY because of its volatility. GBPJPY volatility: Should I base on weekly high-low volatility and input the pips in the bands. Should I link the bands to Moving Average or purely to pips?
The NOKSEK trade was an idea based on that particular pair which does not show much volatility. GBPJPY is a total different beast, I would be doubtful if a similar strategy would work for high volatility pairs. Your previous idea of a Bollinger band BO for GBPJPY might be better suited.

simnz Jun 2, 2016 9:32am | Post# 52

{quote} The NOKSEK trade was an idea based on that particular pair which does not show much volatility. GBPJPY is a total different beast, I would be doubtful if a similar strategy would work for high volatility pairs. Your previous idea of a Bollinger band BO for GBPJPY might be better suited.
Thank you for your advice.
EURGBP or AUDCAD may fit the bill for your strategy which I like to follow. What do you think?

theras2000 Jun 2, 2016 12:47pm | Post# 53

{quote} Thank you for your advice. EURGBP or AUDCAD may fit the bill for your strategy which I like to follow. What do you think?
I have had a look at those pairs and I don't think they would really work too well. They have lower volatility than most but there doesn't seem to be much reaction at the 200Sma on any time frame recently anyway. The Sma could be changed to say 100 or 50 but then you run the risk of Curve Fitting/Over Optimization. I would also stay away from the GBP when trading something like this with potential volitillity related to Brexit polls/statements being released all the time it seems. The thing I like about NOKSEK also is it has a lot of potential upside if oil prices stabilize or even rise some more.

simnz Jun 3, 2016 2:58am | Post# 54

{quote} I have had a look at those pairs and I don't think they would really work too well. They have lower volatility than most but there doesn't seem to be much reaction at the 200Sma on any time frame recently anyway. The Sma could be changed to say 100 or 50 but then you run the risk of Curve Fitting/Over Optimization. I would also stay away from the GBP when trading something like this with potential volitillity related to Brexit polls/statements being released all the time it seems. The thing I like about NOKSEK also is it has a lot of potential...
Thank you so much for your guidance. I am learning a lot.
What criteria or a sort of checklist should I follow in choosing a currency pair ?
NOKSEK is already being tested by you. I want to test anothr currency pair.

pd9000 Jun 3, 2016 3:21am | Post# 55

Antimartingale is beautiful when you hit a nice trend, with not higher than normal volatility. Though, you will not change the odds.

Probability of all trades in profit is 1/3*1/3*1/3 =1/27
You're risking 5, so you should expect 5*27 in payout i.e. USD 135 in profit when all trades hit. By giving away some of the upside by having a "breakeven" possibility in trade 2 you reduce theoretical payout. Either way, can you hit three winners with 1/2 risk/reward in 27 runs consistently? In a random setup not, but if selective in entries were you have an edge it can be a nice strategy. This strategy can of course also be played in ranges since it is basically three consecutive trades not dependent on direction.

DragonNoob Jun 3, 2016 3:27am | Post# 56

{quote} Ok good simnz, hope it goes/has gone well. Tell us how you get on. Just taken a trade to try it out also. (on very small risk) NOKSEK has recently broken above the D1 200SmaMA and is in an uptrend. On H4 chart shown below, recent price action has retraced back towards the 200Sma a few times and then bounced. Price has also recently retraced and looks like it is forming a double bottom. My trade idea is to buy at the orange envelope line with TP blue line and SL purple line. (giving close to 1:2 Risk/reward trade). If my first trade wins...
Would you share that template please ?

simnz Jun 3, 2016 4:41am | Post# 57

{quote} Thank you so much for your guidance. I am learning a lot. What criteria or a sort of checklist should I follow in choosing a currency pair ? NOKSEK is already being tested by you. I want to test anothr currency pair.
I have uploaded an useful indicator for the kind of your setup and have printed USDCAD chart with MA200,100 and 50 on it.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post8960262
Please take a look at it and see if USDCAD can be a fit candidate.
Thank you

theras2000 Jun 3, 2016 5:22am | Post# 58

3 Attachment(s)
{quote} would you share that template please ?
NOKSEK-revmart.tplP4L CandleTime.ex4Spread.ex4

simnz Jun 3, 2016 5:35am | Post# 59

Antimartingale is beautiful when you hit a nice trend, with not higher than normal volatility. Though, you will not change the odds. Probability of all trades in profit is 1/3*1/3*1/3 =1/27 You're risking 5, so you should expect 5*27 in payout i.e. USD 135 in profit when all trades hit. By giving away some of the upside by having a "breakeven" possibility in trade 2 you reduce theoretical payout. Either way, can you hit three winners with 1/2 risk/reward in 27 runs consistently? In a random setup not, but if selective in entries were you have an...
You explained it so good.

Can you please suggest a quick averaging formula/indicator/solution for reducing breakeven in case of a position going adverse for (a) buy (b) sell trade? I don't want to use stop loss until I have reached a particular equity drawdown point.

Before that happening, I want to try to reduce my breakeven point by averaging in equal or disproportionate lots (using two or any one method depending upon my view of direction).

Thank you.

theras2000 Jun 3, 2016 11:30am | Post# 60

{quote} Thank you so much for your guidance. I am learning a lot. What criteria or a sort of checklist should I follow in choosing a currency pair ? NOKSEK is already being tested by you. I want to test anothr currency pair.
It depends on what your trading methodology is. The NOKSEK trade is just an idea to have a go at reverse martingale. I dont usually trade using envelopes and bounces away from MAs. If I have another go with this Rev. Mart. Idea I will probably look for something more traditional like try to find the beginning of potentially strong trend (easier said than done). More along the lines of Post 36.
Look for a pair at a good potential reversal point on a high time frame. Preferably with the trend on a higher time frame still. That is a good place to start.
I quite like the look of AUDNZD, its looking quite oversold and has reached a good support/demand area on high time frames. In this case a long trade would be counter trend but I still like it if there was a good reversal signal. The pair is not highly volatile but does sometimes have some nice moves. Ill post a couple of charts


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