Sorry I am going to remove you from here.I see no value continuing this here.
It teaches you also as you go through this numbers.I find it fascinating like NZD business confidence -76.40 percent in December of 1974 lowest.Staff like this makes trading fun. We are learning the gears and cogs of the market.That's fascinating me.Bonus part makes making money from it easier
Still working on mine.
Overview for the week
Year coming to an end take profits on positions will provide sharp moves and it will be interesting to see if USD bulls take control last real trading week of the year or dump and same for Pound.Brexit is going to happen but great deal of uncertainty still there in trade and border issues.My hunch is Pound may drop lower 1.31-1.30 before going new fresh legs up.Strong data towards end of the week on AUD and NZD and should be good for AN long...Why?Market finds a way to go along with correction...I know its confusing but happens.
Monday Huge day
French PMI's are generally not movers so skipping this to German and I think market reaction would be the same since French is 15min earlier then German
German PMI forcast 44.6 that's slightly greener forecast then previous.
Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 44.1 in November 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 43.8 and compared to October's final 42.1. The latest reading was the highest since June, but still comfortably inside contraction territory. Output contracted for the tenth consecutive month, the longest sequence of decline since 2008-09, while both new orders and export sales fell at the slowest pace since January. In addition, buying levels and employment across the manufacturing sector dropped at softer rates, while business sentiment was in positive territory for the first time since June. On the price front, input costs fell by the most since March 2016, amid reductions in the price of chemicals, metals and plastics; and average factory gate charges decreased for the fifth month due to strong competition for new work. Manufacturing PMI in Germany averaged 51.68 from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 63.30 in December of 2017 and a record low of 32 in January of 2009.
Notes to self Slight green may propel Euro crosses up which could provide selling opportunities like EC EA. Brexit pressure is still there on the Euro hence breaking above 147 EC and 162.50+ EA requires lot more solid fundamentals.Any upsurge may be temporary.
GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 /Flash Services PMI 49.6
Both slightly green forcast.UK Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.9 in November 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 48.3 and compared to October's final reading of 49.6. Output shrank at a faster pace and new orders fell for the seventh month in a row, with new export orders declining at one of the steepest rates over the past seven years, following the delay to Brexit and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the political, economic and global trade situations. In addition, employment dropped the most since September 2012 due to cost reduction efforts, efficiencies, Brexit uncertainty, redundancies, natural wastage and staff restructuring. Finished goods inventories fell at the steepest rate in over two-and-a-half years, while input buying volumes fell to one of the greatest extents since early-2013. On the price front, input costs decreased for the first time since March 2016, linked to lower global commodity prices and exchange rate effects. Manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom averaged 51.95 from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 61.50 in January of 2011 and a record low of 34.40 in November of 2008
notes to self.After jubilant reaction of Brexit any good green number on UK may propel more buying jumping on Pound bandwagon. USE caution trading GBP
USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 same as previous
US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.6 in November of 2019 from a preliminary of 52.2 and 51.3 in October. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in factory activity in seven months, supported by quicker expansions in production and new orders, with both domestic and foreign client demand strengthening. Business confidence remained historically muted, however, as global economic uncertainty continued to weigh on expectations. Manufacturing PMI in the United States averaged 53.64 from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 57.90 in August of 2014 and a record low of 50.30 in August of 2019
Notes to self Should EU and UK PMI's print red and USD green Euro/USD could be perfect set up to short.Will wait to see how events unfold
NZD ANZ Business Confidence
The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand jumped to -26.4 in November 2019 from -42.4 in the previous month and beating market expectations of -30.8. It was the highest reading since December last year, as firmsí expectations for their own activity over the year ahead rose to its strongest level in 2019 (12.9 from -3.5 in October). Also, employment (+3.2 from -9.4); investment (+5.6 from -5.5); and exports (+1.2 from -0.4) went up into positive territory. Among sectors, both commercial (5.9 from a flat reading) and residential construction (7.9 from -5.3) increased. Business Confidence in New Zealand averaged 4.03 percent from 1970 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 80.90 percent in February of 1994 and a record low of -76.40 percent in December of 1974
Notes to self- a big one since there isn't much else on NZD except GDP until end of the year hence negative here may produce over reaction moves specially on AN
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
From last meeting -The Board concluded that the cash rate should be held steady at this meeting. As part of their deliberations, members also agreed that it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labor market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent.
Notes to self with possible China trade deal showing possible positive outcome RBA may project slightly positive outlook which should lift AUD higher.Remains to be seen.
GBP CPI y/y
The consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in October 2019 from 1.7 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. That was the lowest rate since November 2016, mainly due to a slowdown in housing & utilities prices as a regulator's tariff cap pushed down electricity and gas cost. Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.56 percent from 1989 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 8.50 percent in April of 1991 and a record low of -0.10 percent in April of 2015
Notes to self-Should Monday data print red and cpi comes out red expect market to dump GBP crosses like GC very attractive...
Canada Inflation Rate MoM
The Consumer Price Index in Canada increased 0.30 percent in October of 2019 over the previous month. Inflation Rate Mom in Canada averaged 0.29 percent from 1950 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.60 percent in January of 1991 and a record low of -1.30 percent in June of 1959
NZD GDP q/q
The New Zealand economy advanced 0.5 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, slowing from a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous period but beating market expectations of 0.4 percent. The services sector, which represents about two-thirds of the economy, was the main contributor to GDP, increasing 0.7 percent (vs 0.3 percent in Q1), of which retail trade & accommodation (0.7 percent vs -0.6 percent); transport, postal & warehousing (1.8 percent vs 1.2 percent); and financial & insurance services (0.8 percent vs 0.7 percent). Also, primary industries rose 0.7 percent, rebounding from a 0.5 percent contraction, driven by agriculture, forestry & fishing (1.6 percent vs -2 percent). Meanwhile, the secondary sector shrank 0.2 percent (vs 1.9 percent in Q1), due to manufacturing (-0.8 percent vs 1.2 percent) and construction (-0.8 percent vs 1.9 percent). On a yearly basis, the GDP advanced 2.1 percent, easing from a 2.5 percent expansion in Q1. GDP Growth Rate in New Zealand averaged 0.64 percent from 1987 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in the third quarter of 1999 and a record low of -2.40 percent in the first quarter of 1991
Notes to self projection is green however anything less then 0.5 should have huge impact
AUD Employment Change generous 15.2k forecast from terrible previous
AUD Unemployment Rate same 5.3
Notes to self.Very likely AN shoots high and will hold these trades.
JPY Monetary Policy Statement
expecting same old dovish statements however BOJ can't go lower hence JPY should remain neutral.
Thurs big day for GBP
GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% small green forecast.May not matter much...
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes same next
Monetary Policy Summary-Not expecting robust positive outlook more cautious defensive approach
GBP Current Account
generally not much market mover.
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
Can we get surprise here? Will see
Retail sales in Canada decreased 0.1 percent month-over-month in September 2019, after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in the previous month and matching market expectations. It was the first decline in retail trade in three months, as sales dropped at motor vehicle & parts dealers (-1 percent), namely new car dealers (-1.9 percent); and gasoline stations (-2.3 percent). On the other hand, receipts increased at food & beverage stores (1.2 percent), in particular at supermarkets & other grocery stores (1.1 percent) and beer, wine & liquor (3.2 percent); and building material & garden equipment and supplies dealers (3.3 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade went up 1 percent, slowing from an upwardly revised 1.3 percent rise in August. Considering the third quarter as a whole, retail sales advanced 0.5 percent, easing from a 1.1 percent gain in the prior quarter. Retail Sales MoM in Canada averaged 0.36 percent from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.70 percent in December of 1997 and a record low of -4.50 percent in January of 1998
In summery this should be great week.Unfortunately 3people on vacation on my job and piled extra shifts on me hence may miss some great trades.Can't wait to quite this job
Put work rip your pips.
OK, like I said yesterday, here's my humble notes on the next week's calendar:
What we saw over the past week:
The most important events over the coming week:
we need a tools where we can see not just the previous release and the market forecast for the upcoming release.
We need a tools where it also shows the Minimum and Maximum forecasts based on analyst surveys.
The minimum and maximum numbers are very important. They let us know when an event has deviated significantly from market expectations.
many times market do not moves even slightly below or slightly above expectations.
but how much above and how much below?
Really need something that show when actual numbers came in below the minimum or above the maximum forecasts. These can provide good trading opportunities.
I apologise if this is too basic a question, but I search the thread and couldn't find an answer.
Below you can see three different forecasts for AUD Employment Change from three different calendars (Forex Factory, Investing.com, MetaQuote). The difference is so big that cannot be simply ignored.
Amazing brush making...by hand in mechanical world...Have several sable brushes myself.Nothing else comes close.
Try going over all red eventsThere was nothing about AUD NZD CAD and all have important events and pairs like AN AC NC AJ NJ EC EN CJ some of the best to trade.People are habitual if you find yourself thinking like what you used to and trade like how you did before STOP.Reset yourself refocus.Takes effort to think fresh.
Its lot better then your previous.keep doing
To inspire you Egbert came here 2yrs ego and he put real effort did not give up even at times frustrating me but now he is killing it.He sees same trade as I most of the times.Check his posts and other senior members here like ppxdf Cryptosurf GMO Mundo (R61 not senior member but fine new member who is killing it)ToddyS2K and many others.There is wealth of knowledge here.. that's unique at FF
May I suggest that you use Nostromo Pivots as your view shows a supposed reversal at S61 when in reality it was a failure at S38. The version you are using will cover the entire chart and place values in the right margin. To continue to use Davits Pivot v3.2 Auto, open the menu and drop to the last two items (Show S&R to 200% & Short - put both as true). This will provide the entire week and not straddling more as your image shows.
By applying both to the chart, you can have Davit Pivot v3.2 Auto with values on the right and you may do not need values on Nostromo which are on the left. This is what I am using on most charts.
Edit: or do you mean how i was pointing at last week's S38 with this week's S61...i can see, how that can cause confusion.
If you have 40 mins and 33 seconds listen to Dr. David Paul. His views are very similar to Mark Douglas's views.
Davit Pivot Trade Worksheet - Update
With Davit's permission attached is an updated worksheet. I have compiled this over the years with significant input from serious traders. Many PM's have asked me for an update. The original version dates back to June 2018 (Davit Pivot Trading) and October 2018 (Weekly Pivot Trading with TDI - Neil0163). Downloads have been huge!
The purpose of the worksheet is more especially to serve as an introduction to Davit's Trading Methodology or "System" and suitable for most traders.
Use it as you wish!
In this Version, Indicators have essentially been removed, emphasis on PA (Price Action), a change in preferences too that can vary with Fundamentals.
This worksheet is incomplete without a thorough Economic Calendar Analysis.
It is indeed heartening to see Davit posting his for the coming week. Thank you.
Davit Weekly Pivot Trading - Trade Entry-Exit GMO vs 12-15-19.pdf
One of the greatest thinkers of our times unfortunately passed away and greatly missed.
Saw them in concert.One of the best.
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