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Davit Dec 14, 2019 3:40pm | Post# 33241

{quote} Davit, I use the news time to know when and what to trade, not trade direction. My question was simply how long you would look at e.g. an AUD pair in your group of pairs you watch if AUD news is coming out, after the news comes out, before you decide to not look at that pair any more for news movements. It could be EOD (end of day). It could be in minutes. I was asking how long you'll look at USD pairs after USD news before no longer looking for pairs to trade for that news event. As far as nuances, I understand. But I also look at things...
When I said this system is discretionary I meant it.I can't answer how long I'll wait for news before after all depends how market reacts and if I see value to trade and if there is an EDGE.Too many X factors. This is like asking a karate master how long will you wait until strike back....maybe a less then a second maybe lot more time.Depends what the opponent does...
Sorry I am going to remove you from here.I see no value continuing this here.

Davit Dec 14, 2019 3:51pm | Post# 33242

POINTS I am Considering for next week (NOT COMPLETED YET. I will EDIT IT LATER TODAY) Mon EUR PMI (French PMI, German PMI) The Indexes have to point to a recovery of sorts in November. The initial figures for December are projected to show further improvement. In France, both the manufacturing and services sectors are growing, albeit it a slow pace. The German manufacturing sector is still in the doldrums – contracting at a rapid clip, albeit off the lows. The PMI for the industrial sector stood at 44.1 points and is expected to advance to only...
Great job I am sure it took some time but I bet you feel lot more confident week ahead.You are geared up and oiled gassed ready.
It teaches you also as you go through this numbers.I find it fascinating like NZD business confidence -76.40 percent in December of 1974 lowest.Staff like this makes trading fun. We are learning the gears and cogs of the market.That's fascinating me.Bonus part makes making money from it easier

Still working on mine.

Davit Dec 14, 2019 7:37pm | Post# 33243

Overview for the week
Year coming to an end take profits on positions will provide sharp moves and it will be interesting to see if USD bulls take control last real trading week of the year or dump and same for Pound.Brexit is going to happen but great deal of uncertainty still there in trade and border issues.My hunch is Pound may drop lower 1.31-1.30 before going new fresh legs up.Strong data towards end of the week on AUD and NZD and should be good for AN long...Why?Market finds a way to go along with correction...I know its confusing but happens.

Monday Huge day

French PMI's are generally not movers so skipping this to German and I think market reaction would be the same since French is 15min earlier then German
German PMI forcast 44.6 that's slightly greener forecast then previous.

Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 44.1 in November 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 43.8 and compared to October's final 42.1. The latest reading was the highest since June, but still comfortably inside contraction territory. Output contracted for the tenth consecutive month, the longest sequence of decline since 2008-09, while both new orders and export sales fell at the slowest pace since January. In addition, buying levels and employment across the manufacturing sector dropped at softer rates, while business sentiment was in positive territory for the first time since June. On the price front, input costs fell by the most since March 2016, amid reductions in the price of chemicals, metals and plastics; and average factory gate charges decreased for the fifth month due to strong competition for new work. Manufacturing PMI in Germany averaged 51.68 from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 63.30 in December of 2017 and a record low of 32 in January of 2009.
Notes to self Slight green may propel Euro crosses up which could provide selling opportunities like EC EA. Brexit pressure is still there on the Euro hence breaking above 147 EC and 162.50+ EA requires lot more solid fundamentals.Any upsurge may be temporary.

GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 /Flash Services PMI 49.6
Both slightly green forcast.UK Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.9 in November 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 48.3 and compared to October's final reading of 49.6. Output shrank at a faster pace and new orders fell for the seventh month in a row, with new export orders declining at one of the steepest rates over the past seven years, following the delay to Brexit and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the political, economic and global trade situations. In addition, employment dropped the most since September 2012 due to cost reduction efforts, efficiencies, Brexit uncertainty, redundancies, natural wastage and staff restructuring. Finished goods inventories fell at the steepest rate in over two-and-a-half years, while input buying volumes fell to one of the greatest extents since early-2013. On the price front, input costs decreased for the first time since March 2016, linked to lower global commodity prices and exchange rate effects. Manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom averaged 51.95 from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 61.50 in January of 2011 and a record low of 34.40 in November of 2008
notes to self.After jubilant reaction of Brexit any good green number on UK may propel more buying jumping on Pound bandwagon. USE caution trading GBP

USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 same as previous
US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.6 in November of 2019 from a preliminary of 52.2 and 51.3 in October. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in factory activity in seven months, supported by quicker expansions in production and new orders, with both domestic and foreign client demand strengthening. Business confidence remained historically muted, however, as global economic uncertainty continued to weigh on expectations. Manufacturing PMI in the United States averaged 53.64 from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 57.90 in August of 2014 and a record low of 50.30 in August of 2019
Notes to self Should EU and UK PMI's print red and USD green Euro/USD could be perfect set up to short.Will wait to see how events unfold

NZD ANZ Business Confidence
The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand jumped to -26.4 in November 2019 from -42.4 in the previous month and beating market expectations of -30.8. It was the highest reading since December last year, as firmsí expectations for their own activity over the year ahead rose to its strongest level in 2019 (12.9 from -3.5 in October). Also, employment (+3.2 from -9.4); investment (+5.6 from -5.5); and exports (+1.2 from -0.4) went up into positive territory. Among sectors, both commercial (5.9 from a flat reading) and residential construction (7.9 from -5.3) increased. Business Confidence in New Zealand averaged 4.03 percent from 1970 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 80.90 percent in February of 1994 and a record low of -76.40 percent in December of 1974

Notes to self- a big one since there isn't much else on NZD except GDP until end of the year hence negative here may produce over reaction moves specially on AN
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
From last meeting -The Board concluded that the cash rate should be held steady at this meeting. As part of their deliberations, members also agreed that it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labor market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent.
Notes to self with possible China trade deal showing possible positive outcome RBA may project slightly positive outlook which should lift AUD higher.Remains to be seen.

Weds

GBP CPI y/y
The consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in October 2019 from 1.7 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. That was the lowest rate since November 2016, mainly due to a slowdown in housing & utilities prices as a regulator's tariff cap pushed down electricity and gas cost. Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.56 percent from 1989 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 8.50 percent in April of 1991 and a record low of -0.10 percent in April of 2015

Notes to self-Should Monday data print red and cpi comes out red expect market to dump GBP crosses like GC very attractive...

Canada Inflation Rate MoM
The Consumer Price Index in Canada increased 0.30 percent in October of 2019 over the previous month. Inflation Rate Mom in Canada averaged 0.29 percent from 1950 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.60 percent in January of 1991 and a record low of -1.30 percent in June of 1959

NZD GDP q/q
The New Zealand economy advanced 0.5 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, slowing from a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous period but beating market expectations of 0.4 percent. The services sector, which represents about two-thirds of the economy, was the main contributor to GDP, increasing 0.7 percent (vs 0.3 percent in Q1), of which retail trade & accommodation (0.7 percent vs -0.6 percent); transport, postal & warehousing (1.8 percent vs 1.2 percent); and financial & insurance services (0.8 percent vs 0.7 percent). Also, primary industries rose 0.7 percent, rebounding from a 0.5 percent contraction, driven by agriculture, forestry & fishing (1.6 percent vs -2 percent). Meanwhile, the secondary sector shrank 0.2 percent (vs 1.9 percent in Q1), due to manufacturing (-0.8 percent vs 1.2 percent) and construction (-0.8 percent vs 1.9 percent). On a yearly basis, the GDP advanced 2.1 percent, easing from a 2.5 percent expansion in Q1. GDP Growth Rate in New Zealand averaged 0.64 percent from 1987 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in the third quarter of 1999 and a record low of -2.40 percent in the first quarter of 1991
Notes to self projection is green however anything less then 0.5 should have huge impact

AUD Employment Change generous 15.2k forecast from terrible previous
AUD Unemployment Rate same 5.3
Notes to self.Very likely AN shoots high and will hold these trades.

JPY Monetary Policy Statement
expecting same old dovish statements however BOJ can't go lower hence JPY should remain neutral.

Thurs big day for GBP

GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% small green forecast.May not matter much...
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes same next
Monetary Policy Summary-Not expecting robust positive outlook more cautious defensive approach

Friday

GBP Current Account
generally not much market mover.

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
Can we get surprise here? Will see
Retail sales in Canada decreased 0.1 percent month-over-month in September 2019, after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in the previous month and matching market expectations. It was the first decline in retail trade in three months, as sales dropped at motor vehicle & parts dealers (-1 percent), namely new car dealers (-1.9 percent); and gasoline stations (-2.3 percent). On the other hand, receipts increased at food & beverage stores (1.2 percent), in particular at supermarkets & other grocery stores (1.1 percent) and beer, wine & liquor (3.2 percent); and building material & garden equipment and supplies dealers (3.3 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade went up 1 percent, slowing from an upwardly revised 1.3 percent rise in August. Considering the third quarter as a whole, retail sales advanced 0.5 percent, easing from a 1.1 percent gain in the prior quarter. Retail Sales MoM in Canada averaged 0.36 percent from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.70 percent in December of 1997 and a record low of -4.50 percent in January of 1998

In summery this should be great week.Unfortunately 3people on vacation on my job and piled extra shifts on me hence may miss some great trades.Can't wait to quite this job
Put work rip your pips.

josephcom Dec 14, 2019 7:46pm | Post# 33244

OK, like I said yesterday, here's my humble notes on the next week's calendar:

What we saw over the past week:

  1. US-China appear to have reached a phase-one deal. This can be the beginning of some recovery in China (and the global) economy in 2020.
  2. UK Boris Johnson's re-election sets the UK to divorce EU in a month.
  3. US Fed clearly signalled it'll be on hold over the coming year.
  4. ECB meeting provided no changes.

The most important events over the coming week:

  1. EUR: on Wednesday: we'll see Germany's Ifo figures (Business Climate Index). In the past couple of month, Germany has been getting away from the downside zone and we look out for whether this continues.
  2. GBP: on Monday: Given that the services sector is a more significant area in UK's economy (in terms of its influence on GDP), Services PMI will show how far we are still into recession. Another indicator will be Tuesday's Average Earnings Index which will show how serious are employment sharp slowdown seen recently.
  3. JPY: This is my favourite data this week. BoJ has been doing some serious QE lately to depreciate JPY and boos exports. They have already indicated they will do this as long as it's necessary. On Wednesday we'll have Exports (YoY) (Nov) which will show how successful they have been. I personally would love to see some disappointing figures to go bullish on EJ. Friday's National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) will be another interesting data to follow to be able to understand how BoJ guys are feeling.

Cheers ...


ppxdf Dec 14, 2019 9:27pm | Post# 33245

we need a tools where we can see not just the previous release and the market forecast for the upcoming release.
We need a tools where it also shows the Minimum and Maximum forecasts based on analyst surveys.
The minimum and maximum numbers are very important. They let us know when an event has deviated significantly from market expectations.
many times market do not moves even slightly below or slightly above expectations.
but how much above and how much below?
Really need something that show when actual numbers came in below the minimum or above the maximum forecasts. These can provide good trading opportunities.

josephcom Dec 15, 2019 12:04am | Post# 33246

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I apologise if this is too basic a question, but I search the thread and couldn't find an answer.

Below you can see three different forecasts for AUD Employment Change from three different calendars (Forex Factory, Investing.com, MetaQuote). The difference is so big that cannot be simply ignored.

Any thoughts?

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tehtawar Dec 15, 2019 12:26am | Post# 33247

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Do your calendar of events , plan your trade , trade your plan , price action is always the king , pivot is a queen . Result :
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cjayfx14 Dec 15, 2019 1:12am | Post# 33248

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{quote} does not seem you read "trading in the Zone" lots of information on fear.You need to work on your psychology and you know it.Now just apply yourself You should read all books posted on clipboard. That's your weak link.Once you master you'll be on totally different level.You'll see the market as opportunity only.Does not come without work as everything else in life. There is a thread here guys complaining they can't make money in forex hence dont think anyone else can either.These guys missed the point that success comes from hard work.You...
My mind is blown. Mark Douglas is a genius. Everyone in the Thread that you speak of needs to read this book, just like me they need to learn that you can't force outcomes from the market, you can only force your mind to behave a certain way in certain conditions Mark Douglas calls it shaping your mental environment.
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Davit Dec 15, 2019 4:55am | Post# 33249

Amazing brush making...by hand in mechanical world...Have several sable brushes myself.Nothing else comes close.
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Davit Dec 15, 2019 5:08am | Post# 33250

OK, like I said yesterday, here's my humble notes on the next week's calendar: What we saw over the past week: US-China appear to have reached a phase-one deal. This can be the beginning of some recovery in China (and the global) economy in 2020. UK Boris Johnson's re-election sets the UK to divorce EU in a month. US Fed clearly signalled it'll be on hold over the coming year. ECB meeting provided no changes. The most important events over the coming week: EUR: on Wednesday: we'll see Germany's Ifo figures (Business Climate Index). In the past couple...
Just a constructive feedback.You are mentally editing which news is important and omitting others.Just like random distribution of winners and losers what you dont pay attention to could be biggest mover and what you think is important like BOJ statement may be a blimp.
Try going over all red eventsThere was nothing about AUD NZD CAD and all have important events and pairs like AN AC NC AJ NJ EC EN CJ some of the best to trade.People are habitual if you find yourself thinking like what you used to and trade like how you did before STOP.Reset yourself refocus.Takes effort to think fresh.

Its lot better then your previous.keep doing

josephcom Dec 15, 2019 5:16am | Post# 33251

{quote} Just a constructive feedback.You are mentally editing which news is important and omitting others.Just like random distribution of winners and losers what you dont pay attention to could be biggest mover and what you think is important like BOJ statement may be a blimp. Try going over all red eventsThere was nothing about AUD NZD CAD and all have important events and pairs like AN AC NC AJ NJ EC EN CJ some of the best to trade. Its lot better then your previous.keep doing
Your feedback means a lot to me. You'll see much better from me...

Davit Dec 15, 2019 5:24am | Post# 33252

{quote} Your feedback means a lot to me. You'll see much better from me...
Pairs I mentioned are gold mines.Several reasons but low ADR and predictive nature allows confident trading.Most rookies get attracted to beasts like GN GJ huge mistake and get their asses handed to them but avoid AC NC for example where mistake there may cost fraction.Its not about most distance its about profitability of the trade with lowest risk.I make most money from commodity pairs regularly rather under the radar gold nuggets

To inspire you Egbert came here 2yrs ego and he put real effort did not give up even at times frustrating me but now he is killing it.He sees same trade as I most of the times.Check his posts and other senior members here like ppxdf Cryptosurf GMO Mundo (R61 not senior member but fine new member who is killing it)ToddyS2K and many others.There is wealth of knowledge here.. that's unique at FF

cjayfx14 Dec 15, 2019 5:44am | Post# 33253

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looking at some charts to boost my confidence and i'm thinking this system gives a little more than en edge, it is bordering on insider information. a person watching these charts could have had some real sniper entries, almost (dare i say it) negating risk...
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Gmo Dec 15, 2019 6:15am | Post# 33254

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looking at some charts to boost my confidence and i'm thinking this system gives a little more than en edge, it is bordering on insider information. a person watching these charts could have had some real sniper entries, almost (dare i say it) negating risk... {image}
cjayfx14
May I suggest that you use Nostromo Pivots as your view shows a supposed reversal at S61 when in reality it was a failure at S38. The version you are using will cover the entire chart and place values in the right margin. To continue to use Davits Pivot v3.2 Auto, open the menu and drop to the last two items (Show S&R to 200% & Short - put both as true). This will provide the entire week and not straddling more as your image shows.
By applying both to the chart, you can have Davit Pivot v3.2 Auto with values on the right and you may do not need values on Nostromo which are on the left. This is what I am using on most charts.
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cjayfx14 Dec 15, 2019 7:48am | Post# 33255

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{quote} cjayfx14 May I suggest that you use Nostromo Pivots as your view shows a supposed reversal at S61 when in reality it was a failure at S38. The version you are using will cover the entire chart and place values in the right margin. To continue to use Davits Pivot v3.2 Auto, open the menu and drop to the last two items (Show S&R to 200% & Short - put both as true). This will provide the entire week and not straddling more as your image shows. By applying both to the chart, you can have Davit Pivot v3.2 Auto with values on the right and you...
heres with Nistromo, pretty sure my levels are the same...am i wrong?
Edit: or do you mean how i was pointing at last week's S38 with this week's S61...i can see, how that can cause confusion.
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MrAussieFX Dec 15, 2019 10:37am | Post# 33256

If you have 40 mins and 33 seconds listen to Dr. David Paul. His views are very similar to Mark Douglas's views.

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Best Regards

Gmo Dec 15, 2019 2:56pm | Post# 33257

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Davit Pivot Trade Worksheet - Update

With Davit's permission attached is an updated worksheet. I have compiled this over the years with significant input from serious traders. Many PM's have asked me for an update. The original version dates back to June 2018 (Davit Pivot Trading) and October 2018 (Weekly Pivot Trading with TDI - Neil0163). Downloads have been huge!

The purpose of the worksheet is more especially to serve as an introduction to Davit's Trading Methodology or "System" and suitable for most traders.
Use it as you wish!
In this Version, Indicators have essentially been removed, emphasis on PA (Price Action), a change in preferences too that can vary with Fundamentals.
This worksheet is incomplete without a thorough Economic Calendar Analysis.

It is indeed heartening to see Davit posting his for the coming week. Thank you.
Davit Weekly Pivot Trading - Trade Entry-Exit GMO vs 12-15-19.pdf

Davit Dec 15, 2019 6:38pm | Post# 33258

If you have 40 mins and 33 seconds listen to Dr. David Paul. His views are very similar to Mark Douglas's views. https://youtu.be/MGglyvc8d58 Best Regards
Does not come even remotely close to Mark Douglas.Kept talking or rather YELLING basic common knowledge in trading.

Davit Dec 15, 2019 7:21pm | Post# 33259

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One of the greatest thinkers of our times unfortunately passed away and greatly missed.
Christopher Hitchens
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Davit Dec 15, 2019 8:41pm | Post# 33260

Saw them in concert.One of the best.


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