AUD and NZD are ready for shorts
Thoughts for the week beginning 5/24/20
Sunday/Monday – slow news days. US and German Holidays. Slow news week generally with a few red new items. Some moderate impact news I will reference, not looking for any huge impact from these. Other Covid-19 sentiment related news may generate larger swings, otherwise looking for ranging possibilities with CAD, USD, EUR, NZD, AUD. Also watching AUD for any weakening due to pricing in of next week rate decision, forecast to remain unchanged at .25%.
EUR- German Consumer Climate – one source shows this as low impact, another has high, previous -23.4 is lowest on record since 1980, forecast improved at -19.1 although still poor.
USD –Consumer Confidence -Moderate Impact News – forecast to improve from 86.9 to 87.1. Americans are always optimistic, reopening measures in all states are also fueling an improved outlook. This is number is likely to hold as forecast. I am watching for a move north on UC or south on EU toward 38 levels.
CAD – red news Poloz speaks, if positive, this may give the push south toward WPP. Today Poloz notes ‘Significant stimulus needed to rebuild economy’ so possibly more bearish language
NZD- red news, Financial Stability report.
EUR-President LeGarde speaks- moderate impact – watching for any economic stimulus comments
AUD-Private Capital Expenditure – high impact news – forecast increase from -2.8 to -2.7
EUR- Business Confidence – high impact – forecast decline from -1.81 to -3
EUR-France Growth Rate – forecast decrease from -0.1% to -5.8%
USD Prelim GDP high impact – forecast to remain unchanged at -4.8%
USD Core Durable Goods, Durable Goods – moderate impact –forecast decrease from -.4% to -14.2% and -14.7% to 17.9% respectively. Overall forecast negative for USD
USD – Unemployment claims – moderate impact –decrease from 2,438K to 2,100K. Most states moving to Phase II reopening measures could drive this.
USD Pending home sales - moderate impact -Improvement from -20.8% to -15%. Still negative though so don’t see this as a boost for USD
EUR-Italian Growth Rate – high impact – Q/Q forecast decrease from 0.3% to -4.7%, YoY decrease from .1% to -4.8%
CAD – GDP –high impact – from 0.0% to -9.0%
USD –Personal Spending – high impact – forecast decrease from -7.5% to -11.4%
USD Personal Income – high impact – forecast decrease from -2% to -6.6%.
As always, comments and thoughts welcome.
I say good bye to this thread.
Thanks to Davit...
Sorry to see you go. It will be a loss, I am going to hold out for awhile. It is an opportunity for me to stand for what Davit taught me, and become the best trader I can be. Davit, I will be watching for you to appear somewhere somehow, in the future.
All the best, Renko
I'll still stick my head in randomly
Another early close ?
Probably yes, at least for this it wasn't me but the EA with its settings.
Again it's a pity, EG was very well poised to deflate and could target ADR low, however no problems, all good.
Why do you want to go renko? it comes so suddenly. Just take a few days off, then the world looks very different.
Monitoring EU price action for potential short. At R38 (and previous week extended to R100), at ADR high.
This is trading! Its a skill based activity.Everyone judges everyone in context of trading.I learned from idiotic mistakes of others and mine and tried to improve myself.
When you say you dont trade Holidays Mondays Fridays that's serious flaw in your part. Market is always providing opportunities and we should not limit ourselves what it can provide. Every day is a trading day for me even holidays in fact made 1k yesterday from shit PA because I can!
When you take a year and eliminate 30% trading days off you are limiting your potential.
You have ways to go until you become fully competent. Fear is what prevents you trading those days.You got to find the reason why you fear the market.
Your primary goal has to be to learn how to think like a consistently successful trader.
Remember, the best traders think in a number of unique ways. They have acquired a mental
structure that allows them to trade without fear and, at the same time, keeps them from
becoming reckless and committing fear-based errors.
– Mark Douglas
I hope you guys are taking advantage of AUD pairs all over stretched. We may see AUD decline rest of the week.
Got lot of PM's if you dont get response not ignoring just haven't got to it.My apologies they will be answered.Thank you
so far I didn't hit any lol
Every trade requires sufficient time to develop.Some its quick others might take a day or two.I can sense you kind of panicked.Its fine everything is learning experience.
Currently using only 1/4.
I am not sure about Overtrading when I feel confident in a certain trade, because I have felt the market very manipulated.
My 4 positions should revert to green pips soon.
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