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oswell Sep 10, 2019 6:46pm | Post# 31881

{quote} yup, saw that also Oswell.....it fits the Cryptosurf method without a doubt....but im taking the causious approach because of what I see on the daily and weekly charts....if it breaks north there is nothing to stop it until R61...or if it is really moving all the way up to 1.2085 area....this is why I always have my daily and weekly charts on the side becuase after looking at 30 or more charts and flipping back and forth I could easisly enter a trade just on one criteria only to be stopped out because of an early entry.....BUT THAT IS JUST...
Swede,

Really appreciate your opinion Sir Thank you .

Green pips,
Oswell

Swede Sep 11, 2019 11:22am | Post# 31882

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{quote} yup, saw that also Oswell.....it fits the Cryptosurf method without a doubt....but im taking the causious approach because of what I see on the daily and weekly charts....if it breaks north there is nothing to stop it until R61...or if it is really moving all the way up to 1.2085 area....this is why I always have my daily and weekly charts on the side becuase after looking at 30 or more charts and flipping back and forth I could easisly enter a trade just on one criteria only to be stopped out because of an early entry.....BUT THAT IS JUST...
Follow up....so Oswell as you can see it did break north and where did it stop?? Yup, right at R61....and reversed....so to those who waited or placed some beginning sell stops at R61 have some very nice profit this morning....( I didnt take it because I was fast asleep...darn) Now if you read carefully, Cryptosurf method also says if R38 is missed probably R61 is where the shorts should be instigated...makes sense now right?
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DrForexMD Sep 11, 2019 11:32am | Post# 31883

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Hi Friends,

Despite good Crude Red News, the WTICrude is dropping price and the expected CAD losing value with UC which rlationsip should have been opposite ! I am guess that both have hit resistances with the former at R61 and latter at R61- R38 Pivot locations are key with Oil taken precedence over UC and MM control as usual:

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Could it be that China CNY possitive Red News Loans positive sentiment for their overall economy ? The latest China starting to invest in Soy beans once again due to the coming Sino-American meeting scheduled for next month with anticipated positive outlook? Look at recent US Commodity Index DXY that is consistent reflected that China beginning to buy from US Farmers:

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Can those with more Fundamental understandings help explain this for me? Again, I just think it is a PVT Location R/S issue and MM control over news despite being postive for US Oil Inventories?

Regards,
-John

Cryptosurf Sep 11, 2019 11:51am | Post# 31884

{quote} Follow up....so Oswell as you can see it did break north and where did it stop?? Yup, right at R61....and reversed....so to those who waited or placed some beginning sell stops at R61 have some very nice profit this morning....( I didnt take it because I was fast asleep...darn) Now if you read carefully, Cryptosurf method also says if R38 is missed probably R61 is where the shorts should be instigated...makes sense now right? {image}
Yes the general area looking for swing failures after a late week markup is the 38-61 area. If it goes beyond that then I’ll generally take a pass on it.

EJ printed a thrust candle on the 4H and so far painting a pinbar on the daily. It’s currently pausing at the prior day open.

oswell Sep 11, 2019 12:03pm | Post# 31885

{quote} Follow up....so Oswell as you can see it did break north and where did it stop?? Yup, right at R61....and reversed....so to those who waited or placed some beginning sell stops at R61 have some very nice profit this morning....( I didnt take it because I was fast asleep...darn) Now if you read carefully, Cryptosurf method also says if R38 is missed probably R61 is where the shorts should be instigated...makes sense now right? {image}
Swede,

Noted with thanks , I've started to combine Crypto and Swede method now the key level looks clear on Daily TF probably should put a few sell limit order on the key level , and start to build more position if its going to the right direction .

Green Pips,
Oswell

Cryptosurf Sep 11, 2019 12:09pm | Post# 31886

{quote} Swede, Noted with thanks , I've started to combine Crypto and Swede method now the key level looks clear on Daily TF probably should put a few sell limit order on the key level , and start to build more position if its going to the right direction . Green Pips, Oswell
Just bear in mind that you may also be in a counter trend position from the larger TF direction. If that's the case then set profit targets as momentum could turn back.

Swede Sep 11, 2019 12:55pm | Post# 31887

{quote} Swede, Noted with thanks , I've started to combine Crypto and Swede method now the key level looks clear on Daily TF probably should put a few sell limit order on the key level , and start to build more position if its going to the right direction . Green Pips, Oswell
Please...this is not my method....this is Davit's method...Pivot Trading.....and Cryptosurf who brought to our attention Market Structure with weekly pivots to refine entries...he posted scenarios many times in the past but like anything, unless one pays attention application lacks. With this method, small entries at key areas, adding when price action dictates, one can almost eliminate large drawdowns.....this is not day trading but rather larger swings...from 1 day to 2 weeks for the ultimate payoff.
keep smiling....

Romanov102 Sep 11, 2019 1:47pm | Post# 31888

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Hi Friends, Despite good Crude Red News, the WTICrude is dropping price and the expected CAD losing value with UC which rlationsip should have been opposite ! I am guess that both have hit resistances with the former at R61 and latter at R61- R38 Pivot locations are key with Oil taken precedence over UC and MM control as usual: {image} {image} {image} Could it be that China CNY possitive Red News Loans positive sentiment for their overall economy ? The latest China starting to invest in Soy beans once again due to the coming Sino-American meeting...
Hi John It all correlates until it doesn't! I used to trade a lot of oil years ago and NG they used to be fairly predictable, and have fairly consistent reactions to releases. Nowadays I don't find that as much.The news comes out positive and the trader thinks this is the way it should go and the BIG money pulls the rug out from under your feet. In analysis today if you take a chart of USD and OIL and use standard pivots you will see on OIL it is dropping off of WR1 and MR1 what is occurring here is a reversals off of Monthly pivots. The USD also just went from MR1 to just below MS1 in the last few days and has swung back up. Always good to take a step back and look at the daily charts and mark your important zones and see where they line up with the weekly FIB levels that Davits Pivots provide.
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bubincka Sep 11, 2019 2:08pm | Post# 31889

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A wrong setting on my trade manager caused the early close of my UC long trade.

Setup was taken following Cryptosurf low hanging fruit, however I made a good profit.
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Cryptosurf Sep 12, 2019 8:41am | Post# 31890

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Carry trade in effect across all yen pairs.

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Renkomaster Sep 12, 2019 8:42am | Post# 31891

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Get this 100 pips from ECB
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ranilo.vince Sep 12, 2019 8:58am | Post# 31892

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Carry trade in effect across all yen pairs. {image} {image}
Nice catch on Gold bro!

I wonder what would be your exit here? Coz I also have same trade...
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Will you base it on Weekly chart or just plain R38 will do?

Cryptosurf Sep 12, 2019 9:29am | Post# 31893

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{quote} Nice catch on Gold bro! I wonder what would be your exit here? Coz I also have same trade... {image} Will you base it on Weekly chart or just plain R38 will do?
My TP was weekly pivot so im out already. Gold has been on a ripper but that may be over. Weekly candles look weak, daily's are forming a possible H&S.

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Swede Sep 12, 2019 2:16pm | Post# 31894

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Not much on the horizon to move NZD but looking at the weekly and daily there is lots of room south...guess we will see....the one thing that bothers me is the fact "TIME = RISK" I may close this during Asia..we will see.

On the other hand GBP once again delivered all week long....that R38 level held and held and held, with nothing in the way of news to move it north...until this morning of course....will hold off on any more shorts until today's news is digested ....but I would not be surprized to see more downward on GBP in the days ahead....
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Romanov102 Sep 13, 2019 12:02am | Post# 31895

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Not much on the horizon to move NZD but looking at the weekly and daily there is lots of room south...guess we will see....the one thing that bothers me is the fact "TIME = RISK" I may close this during Asia..we will see. On the other hand GBP once again delivered all week long....that R38 level held and held and held, with nothing in the way of news to move it north...until this morning of course....will hold off on any more shorts until today's news is digested ....but I would not be surprized to see more downward on GBP in the days ahead.......
RED flag USD @ 8:30 tomorrow morning 1.9 billion worth of options expiring on GU at the NY cut tomorrow @10 am.
UPDATE: Just saying these options couldn't have had anything to do with PA overnight on the London session. It's coincidental, nothing to see here folks move along. Looking to see if any reversal opportunity arises after 10 am.
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Romanov102 Sep 13, 2019 12:08am | Post# 31896

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EG H4 Bat
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bubincka Sep 13, 2019 2:55am | Post# 31897

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Not much on the horizon to move NZD but looking at the weekly and daily there is lots of room south...guess we will see....the one thing that bothers me is the fact "TIME = RISK" I may close this during Asia..we will see. {image} {image}
Hi Swede,

I'm on the same trade, the fact is USD not strong at all while GBP and EUR are rocking.
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bubincka Sep 13, 2019 6:49am | Post# 31898

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During my lunch break I saw trade manager closed my NU short on trailing stop, TP was some pips below, probably at reach.

It can be bad or in this tweet driven market could also be good and later red news on dollar.
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Swede Sep 13, 2019 9:12am | Post# 31899

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I was fortunate Bubinka to reach pivot....thanks to a little news on USD that was less than stellar. Gave up a few more little scalps on GBP to finish the morning well in the Green...

But overall, as Cryptosurf has pointed out, we are wise to take profit at the next level when a change in direction overall has occurred, Look at last weeks big momentum candle for NZP...and look at the last few days activity...there is a good chance NZP could move upward so best to bank what we can and move on....my take profits all hit at weekly pivot and that takes the decision away from me...and Im happy with that...
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Swede Sep 13, 2019 9:48am | Post# 31900

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My favorite trade is Cable without a doubt....but if this is filled I will use stops, which I normally do not do....just because of the volatility in this beast and of course who knows what news event will come on the wire regarding Brexit or Johonson or whatever...one thing to note is how it is reacting at the yearly pivot...I know, I know..we do not trade yearly pivots, we trade weekly, but even weekly is up at R100 with momentum fading..ADR in red...and so on... ANYWAY, have to run so everyone have a good weekend...keep green!!
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