its a good decision
Points that I am Considering Next Week. ( EDT TIME )
The crisis in trade talks weighed heavily on markets, helping the USD and the JPY, but the moves were not even.
The American consumer should be the focus to be observed in this week's events
Tue May 14
4:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y pessimism 3.4% 3.5%
........GBP Unemployment Rate ...............neutral....... 3.9% 3.9%
UK jobs report Tuesday, 4:30. the UK labor market is doing very well, despite high uncertainty due to Brexit.
The unemployment rate stood at 3.9% in February and is projected to have remained at this level also in March.
Wages were rising by 3.5% on an annual basis, and a minor deceleration to 3.4% is on the cards in the data for March.
The claimant count change is on the rise, with 28.3K in March and 24.2K projected for April. However, the increase in jobless claims has yet to be reflected in the unemployment rate.
21:30 AUD Wage Price Index q/q optimism 0.6% 0.5%
will be edited
Wed May 15
2:00 EUR German Prelim GDP q/q optimism 0.4% 0.0%
German GDP: Wednesday, 2:00. The largest economy in Europe escaped a recession, but only just. It remained flat in the last quarter of 2018 after contracting beforehand. A rebound is on the cards for the first quarter of 2019, albeit with a meager growth rate of 0.2%. The all euro-zone measure will be published later, but it is heavily influenced by the German number.
5:00 EUR Flash GDP q/q.............. neutral 0.4% 0.4%
8:30 CAD CPI m/m 0.7%
........USD Core Retail Sales m/m pessimism 0.7% 1.2%
........USD Retail Sales m/m......... pessimism 0.2% 1.6%
US retail sales: Wednesday, 8:30. The US economy is based on consumption and the new figures for April will shed some light on prospects for the second quarter. Headline sales rose by 1.6% in March, and a more moderate growth rate of 0.2% is predicted for April. Core retail sales advanced by 1.2% and also here, expectations are for a slower expansion worth 0.7%. Another strong report will lower the chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
21:30 AUD Employment Change pessimism 15.2K 25.7K
......... AUD Unemployment Rate neutral 5.0% 5.0%
Australian jobs report: Thursday, 21:30. The Australian job market is still growing at a rapid clip despite a slowdown in other fields. The Land Down Under gained 25.7K positions in March, and another increase is on the cards: 15.2K. The jobless rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5%, a low level.
Thu May 16
11:15 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
Fri May 17
10:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment optimism 97.8 97.2%
US consumer sentiment: Friday, 14:00. The American consumer remains in focus also toward the end of the week, with the release of the consumer sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan. Consumers have been content with high levels of confidence. After a final score of 97.2 in April, the preliminary read for May is expected to show a level of 97.8 points.
All Day AUD Parliamentary Elections
I would not be able to make a valuable comment because I have not used Harmonics on short time frames like the 1hour. I see too much repaint on the lower time frames so I stick to the daily and 4 hour...I like the daily best actually, I find the patterns very telling as to areas of interest, but it is the pivots that get me in and out of the trades for certain....here is my daily chart for Aussie...remember a couple of weeks back when it tried to Break 72?.....the Gartly was in place and a short would have produced very healthy profits with little to no heat....now we have a completed shark pattern and 3 times last week price bounced off S61.....so will I be interested in this area? For certain....
But the strong downtrend is in place so the regular caution needs to be in place....small entries, added as we go along...or get out and wait and see.....this is going to be such a political week...expect politics will TRUMP (pun intended) even red news so I will be cautious as a serpent.
And as far as Cad is concerned we have double trouble......Not only the effect of US Tariffs on China, now China has stopped the import of Canadian Canola effecting 2.7 BILLION worth of exports in retaliation for the arrest on behalf of US, the CFO of Huawei (Meng).
So, even with great jobs report last week Cad may not necessarily strengthen against the USD.....we shall see....but caution is the word for anyone thinking of large position size short CAD/USD. IMHO THAT IS
I only hope I can keep improving my impact rating, because the main activity in here is when I am sound asleep.
You will just have to put up with me making posts when I get up in the morning just like now.
Also with a note like this you don't need the Forex Factory news indicator I find distracting on the screen.
Hi guys good news so far market didn't really overreact late Friday Trump increasing of tariffs to 300Billion goods.
Yes some gaps down but not near what I thought might be.
New week new opportunities!
On individuals that are putting efforts I will subscribe to them to elevate their status. S.wladimir is one such member please subscribe to him from red members or anyone.I am basically putting a money making team here once established no stopping here!
beauty of holding +swap pairs holding is profitable unlike example shorting UJ where you get max damage on swap fees
thinking sell EA now, when I examine EU on D1, and AU on H1,
I also started building some short positions on EN at the end of last week. As one will see from the Daily Chart below price has been reacting to an area of interest (blue rectangle - now aligning with R38 this week, R100 last week). This area has been dipped into a number of times previously acting as resistance and also support (particularly between 17/07/2018 & 08/08/2018). The price action the 3 previous days is certainly indicating that sellers are coming into the market (looking at the 3 previous bars). That been said it has been in a very bullish trend since the end of March and there are significant areas of interest above between R61 & R100 this week so a spike up of 150 pips would not be particularly surprising also taking into account the US/China trade talks not advancing particularly well!
I don't enter trades using the daily chart - I am most comfortable entering trades using H1 & M15 timeframes. I always study the bigger picture though.
N.B. Davit - I think it is an excellent idea that you have restricted posting access to this thread. It puts you firmly in control of who should be posting here. I have not posted much as I am very selective about what I post and will only do so if I think it might add some value to the thread. It does not stop people following the thread and learning from the thread. I have said before that I imagine every single possible question one might have about this method would have been answered by you in the thread. People just need to use the search function.
For those of you new to the thread that don't know how to do that it's here:
However if you had not taken the time to work out how to do something that simple I would question whether you should be here at all
Looking forward to another week
The market still in risk off mode, JPY and CHF strong buys ... take care guys. Eu also is recovering ground, maybe is a new safe heaven like in the past
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