Forex Factory (https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php)
-   Interactive Trading (https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137)
-   -   Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=58872)

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 10:43am | Post# 1

Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun
 
I decided to open this thread since the other one I use to participate is turned into a horsetrack betting house, more than anything else.

Besides, I'm not a cable freak anymore and recently I've slowed down on my trading, since this market turned upside down, mostly on the US subprime crisis + economic outlook + Fed's BS.

This thread, now, is dedicated to daily market talk, as all the markets seem to be reacting to the last hours news, gossips and rumours. Specially acute in the stock market, but currencies at large are also bumping with high volatility responding to all those undertainties.

Those looking for tips, go look for a job as waiter, this won't be the place.

Those intending to catch up with what is next in the market are welcome.

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 10:47am | Post# 2

Don't tase me bro

Good stuff, I'm a market junkie. FWIW today's a quiet day so far. Seems there's some RBS chatter but nothing concrete.

Toleot Dec 3, 2007 10:49am | Post# 3

Good then, I enjoyed reading your posts

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 10:49am | Post# 4

Well, let's get started with the hottest: Interest Rate statements.

UK
Looks like no-change is a coming. But, what used to be no-change vs. hike has turned into no-change vs. cut. I don't see BOE changing rates this week, but newswires have it a cut is coming, which I don't doubt. I think next economic data will give a clear view for the future, as it has done in the past during the hike cycle.

USA
Now that will be the driver for a long while yet. Recent rally in the stock market was attributed to the market's sentiment that next Fed's rate statement is not a matter of "if" and "when", but how much. Some says another 25bp cut, some says 50bp.

Just read on CNBC that Citi is calling for a full point until mid-2008, yes, Uncle Bernie bailing out the financials as there was no tomorrow.

In that perspective, I'm still in doubt on what position to take on the dollar, as it has not responded to that renewed rate cut expectations last week.

So far, I'm just trading (in a test basis) nicotina's GJ strategy that is doing fine so far.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 10:53am | Post# 5

More from the US

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he is confident there will soon be an agreement to help thousands of homeowners avoid mortgage defaults by temporarily freezing their interest rates.

CNBC

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 10:57am | Post# 6

The dollar's going to bounce against the CHF and CAD this week. Cad interest rate statement's flying under the radar.

Ash Dec 3, 2007 10:59am | Post# 7

More from the US

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he is confident there will soon be an agreement to help thousands of homeowners avoid mortgage defaults by temporarily freezing their interest rates.

CNBC
Let's not forget, he also stated that those homeowners who made payments on time, are not in default and or foreclosure. Not much of a help.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 11:04am | Post# 8

Let's not forget, he also stated that those homeowners who made payments on time, are not in default and or foreclosure. Not much of a help.
Yes. This is the funny story, coz the concern is whether or not those - so far - good payers are going to throw in the towel

The dollar's going to bounce against the CHF and CAD this week. Cad interest rate statement's flying under the radar.

Likely to drag euro with it? I mean, I've seen some agressive calls for euro sub 1.40 already. not today or tomorrow, but before the dreamt 1.5. Still didn't figure out if those calls are for a broad correction or a broad reversal in the dollar trend (which I don't believe)

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 11:28am | Post# 9

When supermodels, and rappers, allegedly, start talking down the dollar somethings afoot.

Ash Dec 3, 2007 11:30am | Post# 10

When supermodels, and rappers, allegedly, start talking down the dollar somethings afoot.
Yeah, I was thinking that if I ever went back to work for uncle Sam, I am going to ask to be paid in Euro's also.

falcon232 Dec 3, 2007 11:32am | Post# 11

[quote=cesarnc;1742012

Likely to drag euro with it? I mean, I've seen some agressive calls for euro sub 1.40 already. not today or tomorrow, but before the dreamt 1.5. Still didn't figure out if those calls are for a broad correction or a broad reversal in the dollar trend (which I don't believe)[/quote]

I don't see that happening. All the Euro has to do is take an expected breather and analysts start calling a reversal.
A weak jobs number Friday will send it back up to 1.50 and a strong number might take it down to 1.44 or so but not much worse.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 11:41am | Post# 12

I don't see that happening. All the Euro has to do is take an expected breather and analysts start calling a reversal.
A weak jobs number Friday will send it back up to 1.50 and a strong number might take it down to 1.44 or so but not much worse.
You're right, I forgot the NFP this week. But recent market reaction was so damn confusing that I'm staying out from it.

Still preferring to trade GJ - piggybacked on stock market daily direction - rather than dollar pairs. Better correlation.

On the supermodel issue, Gisele is a complete moron. She's not taking dollar because of loss of value. She's not taking dollar because she's losing her "world's best paid" status. I even doubt she really knows what is this currencies crap all about.

You would be astonished if you watch her on an interview. She can barely make one full sentence that makes sense. She was smart enough to pick a profession where brains are not mandatory, I give you that.

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 11:42am | Post# 13

You're right, I forgot the NFP this week. But recent market reaction was so damn confusing that I'm staying out from it.

Still preferring to trade GJ - piggybacked on stock market daily direction - rather than dollar pairs. Better correlation.

On the supermodel issue, Gisele is a complete moron. She's not taking dollar because of loss of value. She's not taking dollar because she's losing her "world's best paid" status. I even doubt she really knows what is this currencies crap all about.

You would be astonished if you watch her on an interview. She can barely make one full sentence that makes sense. She was smart enough to pick a profession where brains are not mandatory, I give you that.
having been to Brasil numerous times, I'm astonished that Americans are so enamored with her. Not my type at all. I prefer a girl with more bunda

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:00pm | Post# 14

having been to Brasil numerous times, I'm astonished that Americans are so enamored with her. Not my type at all. I prefer a girl with more bunda
hehehehe

that's exactly why she never won those magazine's "Sexiest girls" crap here in Brazil. She's never in the top 10 LOLLLLLL

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 12:01pm | Post# 15

hehehehe

that's exactly why she never won those magazine's "Sexiest girls" crap here in Brazil. She's never in the top 10 LOLLLLLL

hehehe, can't blame them. Good taste on the voters part

merlin Dec 3, 2007 12:04pm | Post# 16

this thread is destined to be an FF classic cesar!

falcon232 Dec 3, 2007 12:05pm | Post# 17

You're right, I forgot the NFP this week. But recent market reaction was so damn confusing that I'm staying out from it.

Still preferring to trade GJ - piggybacked on stock market daily direction - rather than dollar pairs. Better correlation.

On the supermodel issue, Gisele is a complete moron. She's not taking dollar because of loss of value. She's not taking dollar because she's losing her "world's best paid" status. I even doubt she really knows what is this currencies crap all about.

You would be astonished if you watch her on an interview. She can barely make one full sentence that makes sense. She was smart enough to pick a profession where brains are not mandatory, I give you that.
It would be funny if it was a trend reversal and came back to bite her. Well not too funny, since it would destroy my longs.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:11pm | Post# 18

Well, looks like I succeded in starting a thread dedicated to "market talk" when there is no market to talk about.

Dow flat, low volatility, my only trade stopped out, Britney not showing up pantless anywhere...

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:12pm | Post# 19

this thread is destined to be an FF classic cesar!
Nice... Hope you show up from time to time

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 12:26pm | Post# 20

Yeah things are pretty sideways. Lucky I'm trading longer TFs

Turtle Dec 3, 2007 12:36pm | Post# 21

I decided to open this thread since the other one I use to participate is turned into a horsetrack betting house, more than anything else.

Besides, I'm not a cable freak anymore and recently I've slowed down on my trading, since this market turned upside down, mostly on the US subprime crisis + economic outlook + Fed's BS.

This thread, now, is dedicated to daily market talk, as all the markets seem to be reacting to the last hours news, gossips and rumours. Specially acute in the stock market, but currencies at large are also bumping with high volatility responding to all those undertainties.

Those looking for tips, go look for a job as waiter, this won't be the place.

Those intending to catch up with what is next in the market are welcome.
I'm very grateful you started this thread....that stuff going on in the cable thread was not looking good. Don't get me wrong, I don't mine reading about something worth while, but lately it just seemed that some folks where hanging out to catch a trade call and make some money.

Which we know that later on down the line it will all backfire and then someone will get upset because the account just had a margin call.

Now that you have started this thread I feel that I can go somewhere to get market views and discussion on what is going on in the world without someone coming in and asking that classic question...."Which way do you think the pound is going today"......

Cesarnc...good luck and I hope to contribute to your new thread.

HOLLA

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:39pm | Post# 22

Very nice article about the dollar



Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- At a time when everyone from billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Gross to celebrities want nothing to do with the dollar, a growing number of strategists say the stage is being set for a rally in 2008.
The U.S. budget and trade deficits are narrowing in tandem for the first time since 1995, when the currency gained 8 percent as measured by the Federal Reserve's U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index.


Full Story

Again, this is about 2008, not tomorrow. Majority still sees that $1.53 mark as a must-do.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:42pm | Post# 23

I'm very grateful you started this thread.
Me, too. :

And you're mostly welcome.

SunTrader Dec 3, 2007 12:43pm | Post# 24

When you have a childhood nickname of Olívia Palito" (Portuguese for Olive Oyl, Popeye's skinny girlfriend), then you don't have much Bunda.

Her bank account is certainly big enough though. She's not my type either.

Meanwhile more importantly:

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England decision this week has divided economists by the most in three years, with a majority predicting policy makers are too concerned about inflation to cut the benchmark interest rate yet.
The Monetary Policy Committee will leave the bank rate at 5.75 percent on Dec. 6, according to 44 of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The rest predict a quarter-point reduction. That's the biggest split since June 2004.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:46pm | Post# 25

Meanwhile more importantly:

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England decision this week has divided economists by the most in three years, with a majority predicting policy makers are too concerned about inflation to cut the benchmark interest rate yet.
The Monetary Policy Committee will leave the bank rate at 5.75 percent on Dec. 6, according to 44 of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The rest predict a quarter-point reduction. That's the biggest split since June 2004.
I'm wondering which move is priced in. I would guess no-change fully priced in, rate coming unchanged, no fireworks.

falcon232 Dec 3, 2007 12:50pm | Post# 26

Very nice article about the dollar



Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- At a time when everyone from billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Gross to celebrities want nothing to do with the dollar, a growing number of strategists say the stage is being set for a rally in 2008.
The U.S. budget and trade deficits are narrowing in tandem for the first time since 1995, when the currency gained 8 percent as measured by the Federal Reserve's U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index.


Full Story

Again, this is about 2008, not tomorrow. Majority still sees that $1.53 mark as a must-do.
Interesting. If a rally occurs, I'm thinking it will be back to the 1.40s from the 1.50s.
When I make my next rap video, I'm flashing Yuan.

Ash Dec 3, 2007 12:53pm | Post# 27

When you have a childhood nickname of Olívia Palito" (Portuguese for Olive Oyl, Popeye's skinny girlfriend), then you don't have much Bunda.

Her bank account is certainly big enough though. She's not my type either.

Meanwhile more importantly:

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England decision this week has divided economists by the most in three years, with a majority predicting policy makers are too concerned about inflation to cut the benchmark interest rate yet.
The Monetary Policy Committee will leave the bank rate at 5.75 percent on Dec. 6, according to 44 of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The rest predict a quarter-point reduction. That's the biggest split since June 2004.
I spoke to a buddy of mine in the Uk who used to work for the BOE as an economist several years ago. He says that he doesn't see the BOE lowering rates but there might be suprises in the number of members advocating a cut versus those that want rates to remain the same.

Only time will tell. Wait and see.

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 12:54pm | Post# 28

When I make my next rap video, I'm flashing Yuan.
They don't allow public displays of nudity in China

SunTrader Dec 3, 2007 12:55pm | Post# 29

Here's the whole article:

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England decision this week has divided economists by the most in three years, with a majority predicting policy makers are too concerned about inflation to cut the benchmark interest rate yet.
The Monetary Policy Committee will leave the bank rate at 5.75 percent on Dec. 6, according to 44 of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The rest predict a quarter-point reduction. That's the biggest split since June 2004.
Governor Mervyn King said last week that the inflation threat from record oil prices is ``complicating life'' as the bank considers the first interest-rate cut in two years. Three other policy makers have echoed him, saying they face a dilemma as surging credit costs threaten economic growth and the housing market heads for its worst performance since 1995.
``They will want to see more evidence that the slowdown in the economy is damping inflation before they move,'' said Jonathan Loynes, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, who predicts no change. ``A cut is coming sooner or later. It's very close, and I won't be surprised if they do.''
Factory Growth
U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly quickened in November and factories raised prices, weakening the case for a rate cut this year, a survey of purchasing managers by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply showed today. The pound rose as much as 0.6 percent against the dollar after the report and traded at $2.0636 as of 11:49 a.m. in London.
In the 13 countries sharing the euro, manufacturing growth accelerated for the first time in five months, another purchasing managers' index showed today.
The U.K. benchmark rate is the highest among the Group of Seven industrialized countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its main rate to 4.5 percent on Oct. 31, and the European Central Bank, which also makes a decision this week, kept its key rate unchanged at 4 percent last month.
Oil prices, which reached $99.29 a barrel on Nov. 21, are eroding consumers' purchasing power as higher interest rates raise the cost of credit. The U.K. inflation rate exceeded the central bank's 2 percent target for the first time in four months in October. In euro area, inflation reached the fastest in more than six years last month.
BOE Forecasts
U.K. economic growth will probably ``slow sharply'' next year, and the risks are ``on the downside,'' King said Nov. 14. The bank's quarterly forecasts, published the same day, showed growth cooling to around 2 percent next year after more than 3 percent in 2007.
The housing market will stagnate next year in the worst performance since 1995, when the last property slump ended, Nationwide Building Society predicts. Home prices fell the most in 12 years last month, the lender said Nov. 29.
Concern about losses from the U.S. subprime mortgage markets has made banks reluctant to lend to each other, pushing up borrowing costs for companies and households. The cost of borrowing pounds for one month rose to 6.72 percent today, the highest since December 1998 and 0.97 percentage point above the central bank's benchmark rate.
``Continuing fragility in the banking system'' has increased the risk that money markets will ``tighten'' at year end, the bank said Nov. 29 when it announced longer lending periods in its money auctions.
`Credit Worries'
``Credit worries are persisting,'' said Neil MacKinnon, a former U.K. Treasury who is chief economist at London-based hedge fund ECU Group. ``They should cut and there's a good chance they might.''
The Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, a group of U.K. economists which meets monthly before the bank's decision and makes its own call on where the interest rate should be set, favored a cut in a 5-4 vote. The central bank has only moved rates once in December since winning its rate-setting powers a decade ago, when it reduced the benchmark in 1998.
Most economists forecast the bank to reduce the benchmark rate by February, the Bloomberg survey showed. The bank's panel voted 7-2 to keep the rate unchanged last month, as the majority defeated votes for an immediate cut by Deputy Governor John Gieve and David Blanchflower.
Deputy Governor Rachel Lomax said Nov. 22 that the bank faces a dilemma in signaling rate cuts while oil prices rise. Chief Economist Charles Bean said in a newspaper podcast interview released Nov. 26 the bank is at a ``juncture where we are faced with conflicting forces'' and Andrew Sentance said the next day that higher commodity costs ``need to be weighed in the balance against downside risks.''
``It's very finely balanced,'' said Ian Kernohan, an economist at Royal London Asset Management, who predicts a cut this week. ``I can't recall a similar situation in the past couple of years. That's why the City is so split -- because even if there is a cut vote it won't be unanimous.''

Ash Dec 3, 2007 12:56pm | Post# 30

They don't allow public displays of nudity in China

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:59pm | Post# 31

I spoke to a buddy of mine in the Uk who used to work for the BOE as an economist several years ago. He says that he doesn't see the BOE lowering rates but there might be suprises in the number of members advocating a cut versus those that want rates to remain the same.

Only time will tell. Wait and see.
It started already. I also think the next change will be a cut. Hike cycle ended.

Questions is when.

In my opinion, however, Fed's move will be far more important. Like it was last time BOE voted 7-2 (2 for cut) and cable soared on renewed cut expectations from Fed. Almost instantly ignoring BOE votes

Ash Dec 3, 2007 1:03pm | Post# 32

It started already. I also think the next change will be a cut. Hike cycle ended.

Questions is when.

In my opinion, however, Fed's move will be far more important. Like it was last time BOE voted 7-2 (2 for cut) and cable soared on renewed cut expectations from Fed. Almost instantly ignoring BOE votes
You are absolutley right, it already has started and guess what, my buddy left the BOE and started trading forex. Only trades Geppy, can't get him to trade the Euro or anything else, go figure but for what's it's worth, he hasn't lost a single penny as of yet, good MM and trades on longer TF's.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 1:11pm | Post# 33

Talking about nudity, here's another bitch who trusted the boyfriend and ended up on the internet.

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/1056/foto2de6.jpg


notme32 Dec 3, 2007 1:16pm | Post# 34

Another cesar victims.........

Cesarnc thread.........

congratulation................

SHORT GU SHORT

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 1:17pm | Post# 35

You are absolutley right, it already has started and guess what, my buddy left the BOE and started trading forex. Only trades Geppy, can't get him to trade the Euro or anything else, go figure but for what's it's worth, he hasn't lost a single penny as of yet, good MM and trades on longer TF's.
What I find interesting is this notion of the "end of the carry". The end of carry, is like the US War on Drugs. Wholly disregarding an entire side of the equation and blindly focusing on a convenient part of the puzzle. Anyway.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 1:22pm | Post# 36

You are absolutley right, it already has started and guess what, my buddy left the BOE and started trading forex. Only trades Geppy, can't get him to trade the Euro or anything else, go figure but for what's it's worth, he hasn't lost a single penny as of yet, good MM and trades on longer TF's.
I'm on Geppy only. Testing some strategies and all. In days like today, this pair is awful, as while Cable and Yen are looking for direction, GJ move 150-200 pips sideways killing you quite fast.

So you come in the next day and BANG it finds a direction and you got your profit.

I don't think there would be a better than 60-70% win-ratio strategy for this pair. But in the otherhand, this is the worst pair to overtrade during the day, like trying to chase it, you know?

Does you buddy have a strategy for GJ? Oh yes right, as if he would share

Ash Dec 3, 2007 1:26pm | Post# 37

What I find interesting is this notion of the "end of the carry". The end of carry, is like the US War on Drugs. Wholly disregarding an entire side of the equation and blindly focusing on a convenient part of the puzzle. Anyway.
Right, () I had an interesting conversation with someone that said that the carry trades will be over. I said that even if the BOJ were to raise their rates to 5%, anyone will be able to find any currency that they will be able to carry trade. What people don't understand is that the Yen is not the only currency that an individual can utilize for carry trades.

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 1:31pm | Post# 38

Right, () I had an interesting conversation with someone that said that the carry trades will be over. I said that even if the BOJ were to raise their rates to 5%, anyone will be able to find any currency that they will be able to carry trade. What people don't understand is that the Yen is not the only currency that an individual can utilize for carry trades.
I'm up 232 pips on Gbp/Chf but the carry is dead right? Stupidity is funny.

smjones Dec 3, 2007 1:37pm | Post# 39

1 Attachment(s)
I'm up 232 pips on Gbp/Chf but the carry is dead right? Stupidity is funny.
Yep, the carry trade is dead on GJ This is from 10/16 thru 11/20
LOL... I love broad statments like the carry trade is dead.
Click to Enlarge

Name: ScreenHunter_018.gif
Size: 20 KB

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 1:37pm | Post# 40

Right, () I had an interesting conversation with someone that said that the carry trades will be over. I said that even if the BOJ were to raise their rates to 5%, anyone will be able to find any currency that they will be able to carry trade. What people don't understand is that the Yen is not the only currency that an individual can utilize for carry trades.
And not only.

I guess this "end of carry trades" stuff could be interpreted as "end of that crazy huge uptrend".

We can make a living here not depending on trends. As long as GJ goes on spitting 200-300 pips a day, I don't care about the direction or the greedy bastards going sad because the party is over.


© Forex Factory