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-   -   Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=58872)

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 10:43am | Post# 1

Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun
 
I decided to open this thread since the other one I use to participate is turned into a horsetrack betting house, more than anything else.

Besides, I'm not a cable freak anymore and recently I've slowed down on my trading, since this market turned upside down, mostly on the US subprime crisis + economic outlook + Fed's BS.

This thread, now, is dedicated to daily market talk, as all the markets seem to be reacting to the last hours news, gossips and rumours. Specially acute in the stock market, but currencies at large are also bumping with high volatility responding to all those undertainties.

Those looking for tips, go look for a job as waiter, this won't be the place.

Those intending to catch up with what is next in the market are welcome.

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 10:47am | Post# 2

Don't tase me bro

Good stuff, I'm a market junkie. FWIW today's a quiet day so far. Seems there's some RBS chatter but nothing concrete.

Toleot Dec 3, 2007 10:49am | Post# 3

Good then, I enjoyed reading your posts

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 10:49am | Post# 4

Well, let's get started with the hottest: Interest Rate statements.

UK
Looks like no-change is a coming. But, what used to be no-change vs. hike has turned into no-change vs. cut. I don't see BOE changing rates this week, but newswires have it a cut is coming, which I don't doubt. I think next economic data will give a clear view for the future, as it has done in the past during the hike cycle.

USA
Now that will be the driver for a long while yet. Recent rally in the stock market was attributed to the market's sentiment that next Fed's rate statement is not a matter of "if" and "when", but how much. Some says another 25bp cut, some says 50bp.

Just read on CNBC that Citi is calling for a full point until mid-2008, yes, Uncle Bernie bailing out the financials as there was no tomorrow.

In that perspective, I'm still in doubt on what position to take on the dollar, as it has not responded to that renewed rate cut expectations last week.

So far, I'm just trading (in a test basis) nicotina's GJ strategy that is doing fine so far.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 10:53am | Post# 5

More from the US

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he is confident there will soon be an agreement to help thousands of homeowners avoid mortgage defaults by temporarily freezing their interest rates.

CNBC

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 10:57am | Post# 6

The dollar's going to bounce against the CHF and CAD this week. Cad interest rate statement's flying under the radar.

Ash Dec 3, 2007 10:59am | Post# 7

More from the US

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he is confident there will soon be an agreement to help thousands of homeowners avoid mortgage defaults by temporarily freezing their interest rates.

CNBC
Let's not forget, he also stated that those homeowners who made payments on time, are not in default and or foreclosure. Not much of a help.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 11:04am | Post# 8

Let's not forget, he also stated that those homeowners who made payments on time, are not in default and or foreclosure. Not much of a help.
Yes. This is the funny story, coz the concern is whether or not those - so far - good payers are going to throw in the towel

The dollar's going to bounce against the CHF and CAD this week. Cad interest rate statement's flying under the radar.

Likely to drag euro with it? I mean, I've seen some agressive calls for euro sub 1.40 already. not today or tomorrow, but before the dreamt 1.5. Still didn't figure out if those calls are for a broad correction or a broad reversal in the dollar trend (which I don't believe)

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 11:28am | Post# 9

When supermodels, and rappers, allegedly, start talking down the dollar somethings afoot.

Ash Dec 3, 2007 11:30am | Post# 10

When supermodels, and rappers, allegedly, start talking down the dollar somethings afoot.
Yeah, I was thinking that if I ever went back to work for uncle Sam, I am going to ask to be paid in Euro's also.

falcon232 Dec 3, 2007 11:32am | Post# 11

[quote=cesarnc;1742012

Likely to drag euro with it? I mean, I've seen some agressive calls for euro sub 1.40 already. not today or tomorrow, but before the dreamt 1.5. Still didn't figure out if those calls are for a broad correction or a broad reversal in the dollar trend (which I don't believe)[/quote]

I don't see that happening. All the Euro has to do is take an expected breather and analysts start calling a reversal.
A weak jobs number Friday will send it back up to 1.50 and a strong number might take it down to 1.44 or so but not much worse.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 11:41am | Post# 12

I don't see that happening. All the Euro has to do is take an expected breather and analysts start calling a reversal.
A weak jobs number Friday will send it back up to 1.50 and a strong number might take it down to 1.44 or so but not much worse.
You're right, I forgot the NFP this week. But recent market reaction was so damn confusing that I'm staying out from it.

Still preferring to trade GJ - piggybacked on stock market daily direction - rather than dollar pairs. Better correlation.

On the supermodel issue, Gisele is a complete moron. She's not taking dollar because of loss of value. She's not taking dollar because she's losing her "world's best paid" status. I even doubt she really knows what is this currencies crap all about.

You would be astonished if you watch her on an interview. She can barely make one full sentence that makes sense. She was smart enough to pick a profession where brains are not mandatory, I give you that.

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 11:42am | Post# 13

You're right, I forgot the NFP this week. But recent market reaction was so damn confusing that I'm staying out from it.

Still preferring to trade GJ - piggybacked on stock market daily direction - rather than dollar pairs. Better correlation.

On the supermodel issue, Gisele is a complete moron. She's not taking dollar because of loss of value. She's not taking dollar because she's losing her "world's best paid" status. I even doubt she really knows what is this currencies crap all about.

You would be astonished if you watch her on an interview. She can barely make one full sentence that makes sense. She was smart enough to pick a profession where brains are not mandatory, I give you that.
having been to Brasil numerous times, I'm astonished that Americans are so enamored with her. Not my type at all. I prefer a girl with more bunda

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:00pm | Post# 14

having been to Brasil numerous times, I'm astonished that Americans are so enamored with her. Not my type at all. I prefer a girl with more bunda
hehehehe

that's exactly why she never won those magazine's "Sexiest girls" crap here in Brazil. She's never in the top 10 LOLLLLLL

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 12:01pm | Post# 15

hehehehe

that's exactly why she never won those magazine's "Sexiest girls" crap here in Brazil. She's never in the top 10 LOLLLLLL

hehehe, can't blame them. Good taste on the voters part

merlin Dec 3, 2007 12:04pm | Post# 16

this thread is destined to be an FF classic cesar!

falcon232 Dec 3, 2007 12:05pm | Post# 17

You're right, I forgot the NFP this week. But recent market reaction was so damn confusing that I'm staying out from it.

Still preferring to trade GJ - piggybacked on stock market daily direction - rather than dollar pairs. Better correlation.

On the supermodel issue, Gisele is a complete moron. She's not taking dollar because of loss of value. She's not taking dollar because she's losing her "world's best paid" status. I even doubt she really knows what is this currencies crap all about.

You would be astonished if you watch her on an interview. She can barely make one full sentence that makes sense. She was smart enough to pick a profession where brains are not mandatory, I give you that.
It would be funny if it was a trend reversal and came back to bite her. Well not too funny, since it would destroy my longs.

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:11pm | Post# 18

Well, looks like I succeded in starting a thread dedicated to "market talk" when there is no market to talk about.

Dow flat, low volatility, my only trade stopped out, Britney not showing up pantless anywhere...

cesarnc Dec 3, 2007 12:12pm | Post# 19

this thread is destined to be an FF classic cesar!
Nice... Hope you show up from time to time

DutchTrader Dec 3, 2007 12:26pm | Post# 20

Yeah things are pretty sideways. Lucky I'm trading longer TFs


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