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-   -   The Swamp (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=582459)

chonchy Feb 14, 2020 2:53pm | Post# 51881

....Happy Valentines Day to all and very Happy Week End.....

Boulder Feb 14, 2020 4:39pm | Post# 51882

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How institutions position themselves on this EurUsd selloff ?...
I just saw Feb 11th COT report, institutions have added 5 times more EurUsd shorts than longs for the week...
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longshot_nl Feb 14, 2020 5:56pm | Post# 51883

eg possible butterfly {image}
error its not.

longshot_nl Feb 14, 2020 6:51pm | Post# 51884

larger channel.. the center channel line is being tested. lc week and day indicated lower. {image}
i don't know if your right. just puzzling.

EJ has a 600 pip bullish setup 90 pips down on daily chart. i think its nice because its a target too and its target is another ones mid. also EJ never got to 137.94
UJ has a target 4k pips down a bat 2700 pips down. also a descending triangle is forming/has formed on weekly.

when both true then eu should go up soon.

messi80 Feb 14, 2020 11:18pm | Post# 51885

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Currently right around 261.8 fib extension from previous up move 1/29 to 1/31 as well as 161.8 from the bigger up move from 11/29 to 12/31. Wonder if this will provide support..
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gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 1:11am | Post# 51886

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back above 1..
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gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 1:42am | Post# 51887

Currently right around 261.8 fib extension from previous up move 1/29 to 1/31 as well as 161.8 from the bigger up move from 11/29 to 12/31. Wonder if this will provide support.. {image}
New b/o lower low. New LL lc on day and week. One pathetic bounce from the 161%.. 0808 looks to be tested on little chart.. Much more on the smaller charts. 1.8x retracement should fall somewhere in the 1.0808 area. To me that may produce some bounce. Personally I will just continue selling bounces.
In line with the trend making a fresh LL, Swap favoring lower, Virus = stronger usd. Lets not forget. GB left the EZ, the entire reason the ECB (euro was strong was the collection of European members) . The EZ losing GB has exposed cracks others can follow, influenced by Putin. Before the next war. Until NATO gets the balls to confront Putin, he will continue to influence/divide EZ. Now that the U.S. has given Putin the green light, this will continue.

Lets look at German manufacturing stumble. That will be amplified by the pro Putin, tariffs. The U.S. is threatening against its cars. NATO is weaker with the move in Turkey. A leaky roof just gets worse. We have nobody willing to confront Putin atm. So I dont see a reason to expect anything different with fundis. Until something looks to change politically. Lately anything the U.S. has done. Has helped Putin, by hurting NATO.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12755294

gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 2:35am | Post# 51888

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{quote} New b/o lower low. New LL lc on day and week. One pathetic bounce from the 161%.. 0808 looks to be tested on little chart.. Much more on the smaller charts. 1.8x retracement should fall somewhere in the 1.0808 area. To me that may produce some bounce. Personally I will just continue selling bounces. In line with the trend making a fresh LL, Swap favoring lower, Virus = stronger usd. Lets not forget. GB left the EZ, the entire reason the ECB (euro was strong was the collection of European members) . The EZ losing GB has exposed cracks others...
possible chance to sell a bounce 0846/60 target 0804x or deeper.
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gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 2:38am | Post# 51889

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back above 1.. {image}
short lived was the drop..
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gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 2:46am | Post# 51890

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Cases with an outcome. The death rate is 15%. Stay safe.
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gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 2:52am | Post# 51891

In mid-2019, the United Nations estimated that the world population had reached 7,713,468,000.

Theoretically a 15% decline is 1.157 billion people.

pipapolis Feb 15, 2020 3:40am | Post# 51892

Putin is a minor irritant but poses no threat to Europe. Declining population with a GDP of Louisiana. The best course of action is doing nothing, Russia is falling on its own. People want to be governed locally not from Frankfurt. This is why the ECB is stumbling. It is failing on its own and the fall feels to be accelerating. Short Euro. .

PayTheLimit Feb 15, 2020 4:24am | Post# 51893

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maybe look for shorts in CHFJPY next week....
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messi80 Feb 15, 2020 6:53am | Post# 51894

{quote} possible chance to sell a bounce 0846/60 target 0804x or deeper. {image}
I would think the market is trying to close the gap of 2017 if this is the case and price wants to go there, i could see 1.06570 as the next place for a turnaround. 161.8 on weekly and 423.6 of that last small upmove. With how things have gone that’s probably the more likely outcome.

NWSTrading Feb 15, 2020 8:12am | Post# 51895

So much talk on the forums about that gap. Since the banks like to fk with EU more than any other pair, and since so many are calling for a gap fill, I would not be surprised if banks do some serious fkery before actually filling it. All I know is that banks will capitalize on it and leave many scratching their head.

gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 10:48am | Post# 51896

Putin is a minor irritant but poses no threat to Europe. Declining population with a GDP of Louisiana. The best course of action is doing nothing, Russia is falling on its own. People want to be governed locally not from Frankfurt. This is why the ECB is stumbling. It is failing on its own and the fall feels to be accelerating. Short Euro. .
You sound like a kool aid drinking moron, have fun.

gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 10:55am | Post# 51897

{quote} I would think the market is trying to close the gap of 2017 if this is the case and price wants to go there, i could see 1.06570 as the next place for a turnaround. 161.8 on weekly and 423.6 of that last small upmove. With how things have gone that’s probably the more likely outcome.
All a gap is, is a close. Price tends to go up or down. Any gap will be hit if pa allows. Its not because its a "gap." Its because price cant stray off the tracks. It took about 30 years to fill a "gap" on the usd/cad. People waiting for that gap to fill starved a long time. This one they waited years. I wouldn't read too much into the gap. Price up will tend to hit higher gaps, price down tends to hit lower gaps. It's not like price can skip a area. So of course gaps will be hit. One can starve waiting on it. "Gaps" are nothing special.

The larger "gaps" usually driven by a weekend news event. That news event whatever it may have been for any gap. Has to be neutralized to reverse past the gap direction. Corona, swap, less repo, and declining manufacturing in Germany can do that. Will it do that, and on what attempt. Is the question, needing an answer. The bounce if any is yet to be determined. That's if it makes it to the gap. I think it will. And if the current fundis are deemed stronger. Than the weekend event that caused the gap. This train will run below it, or bounce. The reasoning for the "gap" is what's important. Beat the news event of the past. Eu would have dropped below this months ago without repo.

longshot_nl Feb 15, 2020 1:04pm | Post# 51898

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if it gets past this i join the more bearish bears.
its 80 pips down. should happen next week.
perhaps 2032 next

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gatorinla Feb 15, 2020 1:16pm | Post# 51899

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{quote} All a gap is, is a close. Price tends to go up or down. Any gap will be hit if pa allows. Its not because its a "gap." Its because price cant stray off the tracks. It took about 30 years to fill a "gap" on the usd/cad. People waiting for that gap to fill starved a long time. This one they waited years. I wouldn't read too much into the gap. Price up will tend to hit higher gaps, price down tends to hit lower gaps. It's not like price can skip a area. So of course gaps will be hit. One can starve waiting on it. "Gaps" are nothing special....
https://www.google.com/search?q=lead...hrome&ie=UTF-8

Macron weekend election gap. Is the Macron election important enough to hold present fundi's back? Maybe for a bounce. But I dont think its that important in today's market personally.
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Isvara Feb 15, 2020 2:05pm | Post# 51900

First death in Europe from Corona.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228620829975613440


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