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2 Attachment(s) I'm going to run through a few set-up examples to show how it works in practice. Plan the trade - Trade the plan; As above, but (obviously) in reverse. Negative Divergence, followed by the last HL taken out in one direct channel, then a shallow pullback to form a flag off of a 123. Trigger is a break of point 2 by a full pip. I say 'in one direct channel' (Wave A), because this is important. If it pulls back in a 3 wave sequence it is likely to be merely a pullback within trend already completed. |
1 Attachment(s) Just a pointer about Divergences. Regular Divergence is always over-ruled by Hidden Divergence and is something that must be looked for. Sometimes (by going peak to peak), it takes 2/3 bouts of Reg Div before it leads to more significant trend change. The point where we get a fresh High/Low is where Hidden Div can no longer form. Here's an example; |
4 Attachment(s) I mentioned combining a couple of methods. I use Elliott Wave combined with Fib levels to confirm likely counts. If i can determine my likely preferred plan in advance, on a longer time scale, i can then drop to smaller timeframes to look for set-ups (pullbacks) within the overall plan to make the most of it. Dow weekly (04-11-15); and recent (05-03-16); EU50STX 15min (29-02-16), here we have an abc pullback, Wave 'C' is always in 5 subwaves. subwave 'v' of 'C' was extended and was exactly 100% of waves 0-3, in itself an abcde expanding diagonal; and later; |
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4 Attachment(s) On the FTSE chart from a month ago, the daily looked like this; To me, it looked as though a cycle was complete with an abcde expanding diagonal. Just to confuse things, the market likes to disguise a further reaction off of the top channel line, but it wasn't fooling me. I expected a pullback and subsequent break out (as per chart). On the hourly, at the time of the first chart, i identified a possible top of 5w cycle, with wave 5 being exactly 61.8% of prior wave 3, this is 1 of the 3 most popular levels for a 5th wave to end; So i indicated a 3w corrective move to follow, but of course, i do not know whether this will be sharp, shallow, irregular, complex, simple etc. What we actually got was an irregular move, (with wave 'B' making a fresh high). My evidence was that wave 'C' was exactly 161.8% of wave 'A' |
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1 Attachment(s) It's been a funny ole day. I committed the cardinal sin of going out and leaving a position, with only a stop in place. I did not have a set limit in mind. It was slightly underwater when i had to go out and i figured i would be back in time to deal with it... i wasn't, it was a winner, but i was delayed and came back to see it stopped out. Anyway, i caught the Dow earlier. I will not attempt to label it's recent hourly moves, but the chop suggests naturally a complex move and thus i switch for looking at series of 3w moves. If an obvious fib relationship occurs between waves 'A' & 'C', it is likely to reverse; Here the two waves are equal to each other and PA reversed hard, once the last HL was taken out it was good to go. |
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2 Attachment(s) So basically we are talking about patterns that repeat themselves time and time again on all charts. It's simply a case of deciphering them. The 123 gives you the chance to do any EW counts and prove/disprove the prior corrective move. The 123 should also preferably break out of any channel line created by either the entire corrective move, or at least the final wave (C); Here are a couple of charts from the 15sec Dax. See the similarity to the above DOW&EU50 charts; HH/HL combo, abc corrective wave, then 123 and back to trend. Same index and timescale a little later, see what happens again; |
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