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-   -   Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=568569)

Atokys Dec 8, 2015 8:49am | Post# 201

Wouldn't it be better to sit up in the front seat rather than jumping in the boot?
No for two reasons.

1. As a non-insider your access to information will lag behind price. One may in fact lose opportunity while waiting for clarity, which is long after the market has made its decision.

2. Even if you are correct in your assessment and did anticipate future conditions accurately this does nothing for you until the market is ready to move on its own terms. Great example is when Jesse Livermore went broke early in his career trying to act purely on such an assessment before the market was ready. The market is always right.

skfx Dec 8, 2015 8:59am | Post# 202

{quote} No for two reasons. 1. As a non-insider your access to information will lag behind price. One may in fact lose opportunity while waiting for clarity, which is long after the market has made its decision. 2. Even if you are correct in your assessment and did anticipate future conditions accurately this does nothing for you until the market is ready to move on its own terms. Great example is when Jesse Livermore went broke early in his career trying to act purely on such an assessment before the market was ready. The market is always right....
1. Garbage
2. Garbage

Most traders fail miserably trading charts, you know that!

rgds

Atokys Dec 8, 2015 9:09am | Post# 203

{quote} 1. Garbage 2. Garbage Most traders fail miserably trading charts, you know that! rgds
False.

skfx Dec 8, 2015 9:11am | Post# 204

{quote} False.
You can shovel your shit, but not everyone will buy it!
You're on your own.
rgds

Atokys Dec 8, 2015 9:19am | Post# 205

{quote} You can shovel your shit, but not everyone will buy it! You're on your own. rgds
I don't need anyone's opinion as long as I am correct.

You have no substance. Please keep demonstrating the fact.

skfx Dec 8, 2015 9:48am | Post# 206

{quote} I don't need anyone's opinion as long as I am correct. You have no substance. Please keep demonstrating the fact.
Sure!
I was where you are now about 8 years ago!

rgds

Atokys Dec 8, 2015 9:57am | Post# 207

I was where you are now about 8 years ago!
Cool.

So you have been trading a purely technical system and managed to catch all the major trends in currencies, interest rates, stocks and commodities in the past 8 years.

Congrats, you're probably doing very well.

dab Dec 8, 2015 4:54pm | Post# 208

{quote} Mostly agree, trading is generally an abstract concept. Hard to quantify how anyone can consistently navigate all the aspects. However in the purely mechanical sense, trading could be taught better than the standards on offer. More so by removing the likes of Greg Secker and Jared Martinez as "educators" and mentors. This world is hard enough to navigate without their kind. {quote} Yes, many roadblocks. But I don't believe the available resources are as good as people say. They're an ok taste, but very few of them go into any depth about...
You seem to have things relatively together / sorted out for someone who on the surface has traded less than two years.

dab Dec 8, 2015 5:24pm | Post# 209

{quote} Why do you need fundamentals when you can see which way price is moving?
You may not, especially if trading short term. I trade short to medium term and need fundamentals, otherwise whilst I can see which way price is going I have no idea how long it will continue going that way. Especially with FED & RBA policy (so far I only trade A/U) it can be very helpful to stay abreast of any changes.

scottik187 Dec 8, 2015 5:56pm | Post# 210

When i say fundamentals, I mean you understand what's moving the market and causing trends/ranges. When those factors change the market conditions change.

Perhaps "sentiment" is a better word. I don't care so much what the individual PMI or unemployment numbers are, and I don't trade the announcements. But following sentiment at a macro level helps frame your overall picture of a pair.

It also helps to understand why the Euro makes a 400 pip day, or why the AUD has been a good sell when it has rallied to certain technical levels over the past 6-12 months.

trader34 Dec 8, 2015 7:11pm | Post# 211

{quote} You seem to have things relatively together / sorted out for someone who on the surface has traded less than two years.

Actively trading since 2010. Only participated in this forum for a couple of years.
In my opinion it's deteriorated over the last 3 years, too many ridiculous threads and collaborators out to con people, but occasionally a thread sparks my interest.

trader34 Dec 8, 2015 7:20pm | Post# 212

When i say fundamentals, I mean you understand what's moving the market and causing trends/ranges. When those factors change the market conditions change. Perhaps "sentiment" is a better word. I don't care so much what the individual PMI or unemployment numbers are, and I don't trade the announcements. But following sentiment at a macro level helps frame your overall picture of a pair. It also helps to understand why the Euro makes a 400 pip day, or why the AUD has been a good sell when it has rallied to certain technical levels over the past 6-12...

Yes, there is a distinction between what people label as fundamental analysis and what you (and I it seems) are referring to with fundamentals/sentiment/macroeconomics.
I mean, I don't know about anyone else but I pay a great deal of attention to the news events before I start any trading week.

I don't trade the news, nor do I really care about the results of any specific announcement. I'm concerned with my positions, existing or incoming. Am I likely to get caught in a massive news driven move? If so, are my positions on x pair likely to suffer hugely if that move is against me?
I generally don't take any longer term USD positions the morning of an NFP, or RBA decision with AUD. If i see that the harts are flat a few days before what is hyped as a massive event then I stay out.
You can argue all day about media driven expectations of market impacts, and their awful predictions regarding data and it's impact, but the charts don't lie.
If they are flat, it is a sign to me that the big players are on the sidelines, so that's where I'll be.

A good example will be next week when the fed funds rate is announced. Everyone is tipping a rise...I don't care if they're right...I'll look at the charts, and if I don't like the moves, I'll either stay out or adjust my risk and parameters accordingly.

scottik187 Dec 8, 2015 7:26pm | Post# 213

{quote} Yes, there is a distinction between what people label as fundamental analysis and what you (and I it seems) are referring to with fundamentals/sentiment/macroeconomics. I mean, I don't know about anyone else but I pay a great deal of attention to the news events before I start any trading week. I don't trade the news, nor do I really care about the results of any specific announcement. I'm concerned with my positions, existing or incoming. Am I likely to get caught in a massive news driven move? If so, are my positions on x pair likely to...
It seems that we trade in much the same way, and have the same opinion on these things.

dab Dec 9, 2015 1:24am | Post# 214

{quote} Actively trading since 2010. Only participated in this forum for a couple of years. In my opinion it's deteriorated over the last 3 years, too many ridiculous threads and collaborators out to con people, but occasionally a thread sparks my interest.
Makes sense. I don't have time to monitor a lot of threads, mainly just follow A/U thread and occasionally look at threads that someone I've subscribed to has been commenting on, therefore haven't really noticed a deterioration but then I've only been here for about 3 years. I do think it's easy to tell who has some idea, even if their ideas are different to mine, especially in the trading without a stop loss thread.

Ccx10A Dec 10, 2015 4:10am | Post# 215

{quote} Actively trading since 2010. Only participated in this forum for a couple of years. In my opinion it's deteriorated over the last 3 years, too many ridiculous threads and collaborators out to con people, but occasionally a thread sparks my interest.
I just joined this Forum this month because many traders in my trading group follow some threads here and they referred me here. From your opinion above it seems that I have to pay close attention as to which threads are worth to follow. I trade mainly the AUD/USD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD and browsing through many threads for a few days I noticed that there seems to be some gems here but I agree that some of the threads do not add much value.

trader34 Dec 10, 2015 4:29am | Post# 216

{quote} I just joined this Forum this month because many traders in my trading group follow some threads here and they referred me here. From your opinion above it seems that I have to pay close attention as to which threads are worth to follow. I trade mainly the AUD/USD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD and browsing through many threads for a few days I noticed that there seems to be some gems here but I agree that some of the threads do not add much value.

Sadly the gems are now needles in the haystack in terms of trading systems threads.

My filter is to generally avoid everything that:
*Has the word- super, awesome, quantum, magic or any other useless buzzword designed to make something sound flashy
*Has more than 2 indicators involved in the system (personally I cut off at 1 usually, but that's me)
*Claims ridiculously high win rate, like 90%
*Claims it works on all time frames and all pairs
*Anything in the commercial section, or that has regular input by commercial members

Those are the main ones, but I have a bullshit-o-meter that can spark at any time if I see something I simply know to be false.
And, this is different from people having a different approach to me. Plenty of different approaches work, but there are some things that any longer term trader will see and immediately know is rubbish.

Even if none of these filters are triggered, still take everything with a pinch of salt.
Remember one simple fact:
There are no absolutes here, no one can ever tell you exactly how to trade, and that a system will definitely work for you.

With infinite possibilities come infinite variables.
The best advice I could give would be to look around, and focus more on the general principle of any concept, rather than the 100% mechanical application.
Often this approach yields new ideas that for the individual, which may be more useful than the original concept.

Good luck to you

Atokys Dec 10, 2015 6:52am | Post# 217

*Claims it works on... all pairs
A good system should be able to trade a variety of markets to allow for diversification.

I concur with you that most of the systems here are terrible.

trader34 Dec 10, 2015 7:05am | Post# 218

{quote} A good system should be able to trade a variety of markets to allow for diversification.

I agree, but diversification is very different from blanket application. For example you can't just stick a 10 pip SL and 20 pip PT on any pair.
Trading a more liquid/volatile pair needs to have the parameters adjusted, and even then may not work.
Most people try to force a method to fit across all pairs/ time frames which inevitably leads to failure.

My belief is you should work with a method on one pair, see it's features. Only after that could you apply it to another pair with any degree of perspective.

Atokys Dec 10, 2015 7:21am | Post# 219

I agree, but diversification is very different from blanket application. For example you can't just stick a 10 pip SL and 20 pip PT on any pair. Trading a more liquid/volatile pair needs to have the parameters adjusted, and even then may not work. Most people try to force a method to fit across all pairs/ time frames which inevitably leads to failure. My belief is you should work with a method on one pair, see it's features. Only after that could you apply it to another pair with any degree of perspective.
They are trying to squeeze pips out of intraday moves in the currency market. Something that doesn't work too well most of the time.

Just implement a simple trend-following system and be done. lol

trader34 Dec 10, 2015 7:28am | Post# 220

{quote} They are trying to squeeze pips out of intraday moves in the currency market. Something that doesn't work too well most of the time. Just implement a simple trend-following system and be done. lol
I'm a counter trend intraday trader and scalper!


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