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-   -   Using Balance and Unbalance to your advantage (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=553445)

puma Aug 30, 2015 2:32pm | Post# 81

{quote} Puma, I can see you are struggling to understand this concept and you are asking all the right questions. Again, not to sound pedantic, but it truly does come down to the way I think and therefore what I "see" in the order flow. The price action one will often see is the "whoosh" I spoke of earlier as liquidation (stop run) of all the trades in the opposing position hit. If the does NOT occur, generally speaking, any "break out" is still highly contested by the opposing side and a return to balance will most likely occur. What causes that...
Thanks a lot for your answer which again is very clear.
I will start to look at the market from your perspective.

Thanks Puma

gspajon Aug 30, 2015 6:56pm | Post# 82

I started to read this when page #2 was just started and already smelled fishy. Why? Because you talked about order flow, balance and unbalance, that this is not technical analysis, but basically your charts were Support-Resistance and/or Supply-Demand trading. Now on page 4 you tell us that you have a 10 weeks course.... Rule #1: when you see people give new names to old stuff, you can tell they are going to sell it.
I knew it...there is one on every thread...I was beginning to think that perhaps I would luck out...but no...here you are...the trouble making troll...

A few things...I really don't care what you think of me or of this thread. You're opinion is yours and you have the right to it and to express it freely. But you really don't know a thing about me or my motive for starting this thread. I mentioned my course as an aside, to let those of my students who are paying for this same information that I will respect their sacrifice and not give everything they paid for away for free. I have never mentioned that I am "trolling" for students nor have I once made the claim.

I am offering a different perspective on the same old tired technical analysis that as we all know simply doesn't work. You want to call it "support and resistance" knock yourself out....excuse me if I don't agree with you. I have been very transparent about what I am doing here and what I am NOT doing here. I have never claimed to be any kind of guru, or genius of the markets, only that I have had success with this method and I am sharing it FOR FREE. What more do you want?

If you don't like it, or if you think its a scam, don't read my thread...there are plenty more threads I'm sure you will enjoy more, or better yet start one of your own. I would ask you how your trading is going, but I can guess by the tone of your comments its not going to well.

I would ask that you please have some respect for the rest of those here who are at least wanting to understand the idea before trashing me. I have NOT nor will I ever ask for money for a specific answer to a specific question. Do I teach classes? Yes. Perhaps you would like to take some before you condemn what you do not know. For now, please stop wasting our time with this pettiness.

Passerby Aug 31, 2015 12:37am | Post# 83

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{quote} I knew it...there is one on every thread...I was beginning to think that perhaps I would luck out...but no...here you are...the trouble making troll... A few things...I really don't care what you think of me or of thi.....
Just ignore it, i belive theres many other still want to know your view.Back to the topic, according to your explanation heres what I think GU will move. There is balanced area above, since price reject the balanced area below, it ll be likely that GU ll head the balanced area above. I move my tp a bit higher, is this valid accirding to your view.
And the second pic show lower tf where i found short opportunity.
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jmatt35 Aug 31, 2015 3:17am | Post# 84

{quote} I knew it...there is one on every thread...I was beginning to think that perhaps I would luck out...but no...here you are...the trouble making troll... A few things...I really don't care what you think of me or of this thread. You're opinion is yours and you have the right to it and to express it freely. But you really don't know a thing about me or my motive for starting this thread. I mentioned my course as an aside, to let those of my students who are paying for this same information that I will respect their sacrifice and not give everything...
Would you believe if I say that this is what every salesman on this forum answers to any kind of critics?

What is going to be next?

The thread will continue with charts, questions, answers. BUT it will never get to a point, and when people demand more clear explanations, you will tell them that you can't cover those question in depth in the public forum, but you discuss it in your trading course. Am I wrong?

You say that you trade orderflow, to me for what you have shown, you are not.

Passerby Aug 31, 2015 3:40am | Post# 85

{quote} Would you believe if I say that this is what every salesman on this forum answers to any kind of critics? What is going to be next? The thread will continue with charts, questions, answers. BUT it will never get to a point, and when people demand more clear explanations, you will tell them that you can't cover those question in depth in the public forum, but you discuss it in your trading course. Am I wrong? You say that you trade orderflow, to me for what you have shown, you are not.
His explanation are clear, some might think otherwise. If you could not understand what hes talking you are free to just stay away from the thread. No one forcing you to be here. AND, being here n talkin stuff are FREE so far. I rarely show up when I dont see something worth my attention, I wonder why u have such free time doing what you do here, if u got such free time why dont u read something useful or try to make some pips.Some topic r not suitable for everyone, sometimes u just to understand some basic concepts and adjust to what others thinks to involve in some meaningful discussion.Sorry if im being rude, I try to gain additional knowledge here and his post seems to disrupt TS attention which in turn disturb anyone else(including me) who try to gain something here.@gspajon: i think there is options somewhere to prevent someone to post since this is ur thread.

eeddss11 Aug 31, 2015 4:45am | Post# 86

{quote} Would you believe if I say that this is what every salesman on this forum answers to any kind of critics? What is going to be next? The thread will continue with charts, questions, answers. BUT it will never get to a point, and when people demand more clear explanations, you will tell them that you can't cover those question in depth in the public forum, but you discuss it in your trading course. Am I wrong? You say that you trade orderflow, to me for what you have shown, you are not.

Knobjockey,

Is there actually a post that you do not bag someone.If everyone and everything is fake or a scam why do you insist on replying or interacting on threads or Forex Factory for that matter.

Everything written here is clear and basic and if someone asks a question the point is to get an answer so it is clearly understood.

Posts like yours keep people from actually asking questions for fear of feeling silly if they are not able to understand a concept(which some people feel is so simple that they must be missing something).

I have actually received help by gspajon and can say everyone would benefit by his teaching which is actually an all round game as opposed to a holy grail system and very very cheap for what it entails.He would rather give than take and teaches as it is his passion not as a means to make money,he does not actively look for students but is willing to help if someone is in need.

This infact is the point,Trying to help others

I am in no way saying that anyone should use his services just pointing out the thread is to try and help not to solicit

gspajon Aug 31, 2015 8:51am | Post# 87

Would you believe if I say that this is what every salesman on this forum answers to any kind of critics? What is going to be next? The thread will continue with charts, questions, answers. BUT it will never get to a point, and when people demand more clear explanations, you will tell them that you can't cover those question in depth in the public forum, but you discuss it in your trading course. Am I wrong? You say that you trade orderflow, to me for what you have shown, you are not.
First things first:

First, an Apology: I would like to apologize to your for my harsh reaction to your first post. What I wrote was disrespectful and I have no excuse except to say that on a personal level, I had a difficult day, and when I read your post it provided an opportunity to vent all my frustrations and I over did it. I am sorry and resolve not to treat your posts in such a manner in the future. I WILL respond to you with courtesy and respect and hope you will reciprocate. I hope you will understand.

Second, Gratitude: I want to thank you as well. I did not intend to use this forum as a method to promote my classes and the fact that I mentioned it here was only as an aside. You have brought more attention to these classes than I ever would, and as a result I already have at least one person privately asking for more information. So although your intent was to draw negative attention, I believe it will produce the opposite

Third, an Invitation: I invite you to follow along with us and post your ideas to the contrary. If you have a specific question I will try to answer it to the best of my ability. In addition, if you have an opposing view point, I invite you to post your analysis along side mine, as I do, on the right hand edge of the chart. Perhaps there is something I might learn from you? If you feel that what I post here is worthless or just a "scam" I invite you to show that to me and everyone else here on live - in the market - trades as they unfold, NOT after the fact.

I would only ask that your responses be respectful and courteous to all.

gspajon Aug 31, 2015 9:03am | Post# 88

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i belive theres many other still want to know your view.Back to the topic, according to your explanation heres what I think GU will move. There is balanced area above, since price reject the balanced area below, it ll be likely that GU ll head the balanced area above. I move my tp a bit higher, is this valid accirding to your view. And the second pic show lower tf where i found short opportunity.
Passerby, Welcome.

Honestly I'm not sure what to make of this market at the moment. Earlier, last week, as you all know, I was long and moving my stop upward, however, on Thurs was stopped out and see a long liquidation move (a "whoosh") that brought price below the most recent balance zone.

Below I have a monthly along side a daily and intraday chart. It appears to me that the market "drivers" are confused, and so am I. There is a large balance zone below current price, while intraday the market appears to be balancing where it is. As well the daily chart looks like it has started balancing as well.

I may just set this market aside for a bit and see what plays out on the daily chart. Intraday, as you have posted may get a bit volatile this week, but may bring opportunities to trade inside the current balance zone on a very small time frame.
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gspajon Aug 31, 2015 9:13am | Post# 89

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Update, on last week.

I am sorry for the late response of last week, my internet has had difficultly...up and down...several times since Thursday, let me bring us up to date.

EUR/JPY: Stopped out with 40 pip gain
GBP/USD: Stopped out with a -23 pip loss
USD/JPY: Stopped out with a 357 pip gain

Gold: Currently 339 pips positive. As I stated earlier, I want to hold this trade out onto the weekly chart or even the monthly chart if the opportunity presents. To recap, you will note a large balance area on the monthly chart that broke down and has retested. My entry was as you see, and I have moved the stop down to reduce any risk down to 35 pips. The Daily chart looks like it is currently trying to balance, after coming down to retest the last daily balance area.

As this is a large time frame trade I will simply have to wait and see what develops on the weekly chart before making any decisions, unless I see something glarring on the daily chart. Until then.
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NorthTrader Aug 31, 2015 9:55am | Post# 90

What about EUR.USD? Are you still long? I'm long just a little but entered too early (around 1.13), with SL just below 1.10. Still expecting upside to around 1.18 before the big drop, so I'm holding for now.

gspajon Aug 31, 2015 10:01am | Post# 91

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What about EUR.USD? Are you still long? I'm long just a little but entered too early (around 1.13), with SL just below 1.10. Still expecting upside to around 1.18 before the big drop, so I'm holding for now.
Oops...Thank you for reminding me...yes indeed I am long.

Below shows the chart and my cumulative position. Stop is below the last daily swing. Position is underwater at the moment but the intraday chart is starting to balance...I think I was a bit premature in entering the way I did, as on this market also there was a long liquidation move.

We shall see what the order flow brings this week.
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gspajon Aug 31, 2015 10:30am | Post# 92

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Opportunity in OIL:

Below find a chart of Monthly, Weekly, and Daily in the spot oil market. The weekly chart presents a resounding bullish engulfing bar, and underneath that bar on the daily you can see that a liquidation move took place over the past two days. This moved pushed past three balance areas noted on the daily chart and is now starting a retest. I have my orders placed as follows:

  1. First position right in the middle of the closest balance zone (as seen on the daily chart).
  2. Second position right at the upper edge of the lower balance zone (as seen on the daily chart).

Now we wait.

This trade may not sit well with everyone, because it is counter to a HUGE bearish market flow. However, after 7 weeks of nothing but selling, I think the market may be due for some sort of correction. If this IS the correction then I will lose, if it corrects further with out retesting I will look for a balance zone on the smaller (daily) chart and try to catch the next round of selling.
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jmatt35 Aug 31, 2015 10:35am | Post# 93

{quote} First things first: First, an Apology: I would like to apologize to your for my harsh reaction to your first post. What I wrote was disrespectful and I have no excuse except to say that on a personal level, I had a difficult day, and when I read your post it provided an opportunity to vent all my frustrations and I over did it. I am sorry and resolve not to treat your posts in such a manner in the future. I WILL respond to you with courtesy and respect and hope you will reciprocate. I hope you will understand. Second, Gratitude: I want to...
I appreciate your answer.
No I don't find the content worthless I just don't understand why the needing of give new names to things (if you notice many salesman use "orderflow"/"balance/unbalance" for publicize their scam), then when you wrote about the course my red alert went ON because of those elements, thats it.
God only knows how much time and money people wasted on trading-related communities filled with dishonest people, egomaniacs who crave for attention, and scammers.
For now I expressed my doubts about this thread, I may be right or wrong, time will tell.

gspajon Aug 31, 2015 10:44am | Post# 94

{quote} I appreciate your answer. No I don't find the content worthless I just don't understand why the needing of give new names to things, then when you wrote about the course my red alert went ON because of those elements, thats it. God only knows how much time and money people wasted on trading-related communities filled with dishonest people, egomaniacs who crave for attention, and scammers. For now I expressed my doubts about this thread, I may be right or wrong, time will tell.
I am truly thankful that you find something here worth reading. I understand completely about those that are seeking to make money on "sales" and not on teaching or on trading. I have also been burned by very likely the same people. I hope to prove you wrong about being a scam...and to prove to you I am an honest person and NOT an egomaniac. Doubts or no, I hope you will continue to follow along and again, I invite you to contribute as you see fit. I am glad that at least you have accepted my apology and will endeavor to show you value here.

nubcake Aug 31, 2015 11:18am | Post# 95

gspajon might disagree with this, and I'm curious if so:

The thing with orderflow and tech analysis and fundamental analysis and any cross-eyed nonsense indicator system is that at their core the charts will still be the same fucking shit. But, it's the difference between focusing on symbols and symbolism versus the things that created them in the first place. Of course they will intersect and are intertwined.

Looking at tech gives you patterns and 'signals', and people try to read it like it's braille mixed with secret messages from space. The focus is on the story ascribed to the symbolism and assumes some truth behind the story created to fit the painted picture. Fundamentals give you excuses to flip 2 coins - the first to decide if the event warrants price moving any magnitude worth trying to capture and the second coin to decide if the magnitude will be in the long or short direction. Orderflow is seeing the same shit the techs see, getting the same information the fundamentals see, and using that info to try to give (what one hopes to be) informed guesstimates on where other people actually may be positioned. Orderflow is a marriage of tech and fundamental analysis in a way that doesn't lend itself to getting caught-up in the flashing lights and instead looks to the motivations of others based on where they may be positioned at any one time, and using that to weight the chart in front of your eyes and discover paths of least resistance as well as reasons why the chart may do x,y, or z.

Orderflow is seeing the 'because' of the patterns, not just the patterns themselves. Orderflow is understanding the 'why' charts painted a certain way after some event, not just the movement itself.

If you get caught-up seeing that it's "just the same old stuff with a different name" then you've missed the critical difference which is the mindset used to view all the relevant data and the way it feeds into painting a realistic picture of what's actually happening, not just seeing symbols and signals made-up or after the fact.

Or I'm just speaking shit.

gspajon Aug 31, 2015 11:34am | Post# 96

gspajon might disagree with this, and I'm curious if so: The thing with orderflow and tech analysis and fundamental analysis and any cross-eyed nonsense indicator system is that at their core the charts will still be the same fucking shit. But, it's the difference between focusing on symbols and symbolism versus the things that created them in the first place. Of course they will intersect and are intertwined. Looking at tech gives you patterns and 'signals', and people try to read it like it's braille mixed with secret messages from space. The...
WOW...nubcake...You've hit the nail exactly on the head.

Your post is both informative and insightful. Thank you! There is nothing that I can add that would better explain the concept. I mentioned before the way I think helps me "see" differently, but I believe your explanation is far more eloquent and logical. Thank you again...

gspajon Aug 31, 2015 11:39am | Post# 97

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Something to keep on the radar:

Looking at EUR/JPY again. Price is currently testing a weekly balance zone and the daily chart has now balanced as well. Decision time is very soon I feel. As this is the last day of the month I am doubtful there will be anything of significance that happens today, however something is likely to happen very soon.

I have place no orders in this market but I am watching it very closely.
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gspajon Aug 31, 2015 6:08pm | Post# 98

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Hello all,

Just looking through the charts at the end of the day and saw this opportunity on the Kiwi:

This market broke below a 5 week balance area during last week's volatility came back and balanced again on the daily chart. I was able to enter a short using the weekly time frame and have moved the stop on that short to protect the position. I have now placed another pending short as you see here with a stop above the balance zone.

As can be clearly seen on the weekly chart this is inline with a long standing sellers market, thus I am relatively confident we should see an opportunity to profit.
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Passerby Sep 1, 2015 5:50pm | Post# 99

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My long burned on GU, managed to load another short after my firat one reach tp and gies back near my first entrt. Seems that I should check longer tf. I didnt even realize too many short opportunity in shorter tf paint beariah on longer tf.

Now im on UJ short, initial tp reached already but i decide another level baswd on D1 tf.
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eeddss11 Sep 6, 2015 10:55pm | Post# 100

Just wanted to let people know that gspajon is unable to respond to the thread or send PM,s as he has been made a commercial member and as such has been silenced.He has tried to explain himself but can not due to the moderators

All he ever tried to do was help others by passing on knowledge and ideas about trading after being in the business for over 12 years.The whole idea of FF i thought was to help others,pass on knowledge,discuss ideas,teach,learn,interact and my favourite to break up the boredom and loneliness of trading on ones own.

As he can no longer start or respond to threads outside of his own on a commercial setting i feel it is a great loss to the community as a whole and can not believe the moderators have made this decision which is foolish and incompetent to say the least from my perspective at least.He has(had) decreased some peoples learning curve by a big margin and one only had to ask for help and was given it

If anyone is in need of any help from a genuine individual at all that has a passion for helping others you can PM me and i will pass on his details

He is in no way a scammer or snake oil salesman and is the first to say that there is no Holy Grail

To the person or people that are to blame for this disgrace,I hope you continue on your merry way of losing and finding blame with others as opposed to taking responsibility for your own actions and actually learning to trade off someone that was willing to help,You people(person) have done a disservice to others.

KNOBJOCKEY


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